Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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685 FXUS61 KCAR 112007 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 307 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THIS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A NEW, AND MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LIKELY SIGNIFICANT NORLUN INVERTED TROUGH SNOW EVENT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. QUESTION IS...WHERE ALONG THE COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY FROM MOUNT DESERT ISLAND UP THROUGH BANGOR. HOWEVER, DIFFERENT MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL SAY THIS BAND COULD SET UP ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OR WEST OF EAST SHORE PENOBSCOT BAY. MODELS HOWEVER ARE CONVERGING ENOUGH TO A SOLUTION THAT FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO PUT UP A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. IT CAN`T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THE LOCATION OF THIS NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF EVENT WHERE THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW TOTALS OVER SHORT DISTANCES. SNOW RATIOS WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH WITH A FLUFFY LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW...THE TYPE OF SNOW THAT YOU CAN BRUSH OFF YOUR CAR WITH A BROOM. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE NORTH BREEZE, WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL WHERE THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS. OTHER STORY IS THE VERY COLD AIR. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR ON SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS TO 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. COLDEST AIRMASS AND COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF THE SEASON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ANY PRECIP FROM THE WKND SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE DEPARTED BY SUN NIGHT, AND UPR RIDGING MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE INTO WED. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE EXISTENCE OF THIS LOW, THEY HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF UPR AND SFC FEATURES. HOWEVER, WITH THE 12Z MODELS, ALL 3 LONG- RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. EDITS WERE NEEDED TO THE SUPERBLEND FIRST GUESS, AND WERE MADE GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS AND CMC RUNS. THE 12Z ECMWF CONCURRED WHEN IT CAME IN. WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT, LKLY AND DEFINITE POPS WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUE AM THRU TUE NIGHT. WITH MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON A FURTHER WEST TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST, TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP TUE INTO WED. NOW EXPECTING A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND S-SE WINDS DRAW WARMER AIR WELL INLAND. AS OF NOW, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES, AND COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, AND THURS LOOKS DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE BAR HARBOR TO BANGOR AREA...PERHAPS STRETCHING NORTHWEST TO GREENVILLE. IN THIS AREA, SNOW COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR IN THE NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE THE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE UP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAY EVEN BE SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, BUT DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO GO WITH A WATCH.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001- 003-004. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ015-016-029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...BLOOMER/FOISY MARINE...BLOOMER/FOISY

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