Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181911 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 311 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary bisecting the state will continue to weaken into early evening. High pressure will build into the region tonight and move east on Wednesday. A cold front will pass through state Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Drier but continued unseasonably cool for April. A line of showers were moving across the northern portions of the CWA this afternoon. This activity was in response to an upper disturbance moving across the region as seen in the latest Satl WV imagery. At the sfc, high pres was beginning to ridge in from the n. Those showers will move se and dissipate later this afternoon as the upper level feature lifts to the e. Clouds holding tough this afternoon will gradually thin out by evening especially across the eastern areas while sits to the w such as Piscataquis County and the Allagash will hang on to the clouds longer w/the light ene flow in the blyr. High pres at the sfc and aloft is forecast to move into the region tonight w/conditions improving. The soundings data from both the NAM and GFS show the column to dry out allowing for some clearing. This is supported by the latest run of the RAP guidance and supported by the latest visible imagery showing signs of the cloud deck thinning. The caveat to this will be the clouds across the ridge axis in Piscataquis County that will hang on for a time tonight until the flow aloft turns to the sw as the ridge axis pulls e. Temps across the north and west will drop back in the mid 20s w/upper 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. For Wednesday, some sunshine to start the day but clouds will be on the increase as a cold front approaches the CWA from the west. Decided to pull back on the arrival of showers til later in the afternoon as the atmosphere will take some time to moisten. The NAM and GFS both support this solution as done the Canadian GEM. Rain showers look like they will arrive into the western areas by 21-00z timeframe. Continued very cool w/daytime temps averaging in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models are in pretty good agreement with bringing a cold frontal band of rn shwrs...possibly mixed with sleet or wet snow across Nrn areas Wed ngt with generally 2 to 3 tenths of total QPF before the event ends Thu morn. Following the front, hi temps should recover closer to seasonal norms Thu aftn with at least partial clrg. But any clrg will be brief with cldnss already xpctd to increase Thu ngt ahead of a vigorous late Apr s/wv and associated sfc low movg E from the Great Lks. precipitation from this system will begin as rn across the region on Fri.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Secondary low pres developing ovr the Gulf of ME Fri ngt will result in dynamic cooling alf, chgng rn from Fri to wet sn ovr Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn by late Fri ngt, with a rn/sn mix even possible ovr Downeast areas by erly Sat morn with this process being enhanced by the upper low crossing ovr ME durg this tm. Sig snfl is possible across spcly higher trrn of Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the region by mid to late Sat morn, at which point reduced precip rates and increased background cld filtered insolation would result in melting snfl and a transition to rn before precip ends late in the day. Total QPF with this event, which could reach an inch for ptns of the FA may be somewhat delayed entering spcly Nrn mainstream river basins if a sig ptn of the event falls as sn. Following the exit of the low alg the Srn periphery of of Nova Scotia by Sat eve, skies should clr across the Rgn by late Sat ngt, with again sig rebound of hi temps on Sun, likely to melt any remaining snfl across the region from Sat. The next chc of any precip in the form of rn/rn shwrs may be on Mon into Mon ngt ahead of a late season surge of arctic-like air across Ont and QB with origins from the Canadian Archipelago achieving unseasonably high max arctic indices of 50 to 55 this weekend before Swrd modification of the air mass early next week. This air mass will likely result in below normal hi temps across our Rgn on Tue despite potential sunshine across the region.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR w/a brief period of MVFR for the northern TAF sites this evening. VFR for KBGR and KBHB. It looks like VFR for all sites for Wednesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys in rn Wed ngt across out TAF sites will transition to VFR on Thu and hold VFR into Thu ngt. Conditions will then lower to MVFR in rn on Fri and then IFR Fri ngt with rn chgng to sn spcly across Nrn TAF sites. IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by Sat aftn at the conclusion of precip and then to VFR aftwrds Sat ngt and Sun.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No headlines expected. ENE winds becoming SE on Wednesday w/speeds of 10 to 15 kts w/a few gusts to 20 kts. Seas will stay 4-5 ft especially for the outer zones into Wednesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: TERM: At or below marginal SCA conditions are xpctd, with a pd of strong SCA winds and perhaps minimal gales possible later Fri into Fri ngt ahead of secondary low pres forming ovr the the Gulf of ME. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for these ptns of the fcst.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Norton Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hewitt/Norton/VJN Marine...Hewitt/Norton/VJN

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