Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281400 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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945 AM UPDATE: HRLY POPS...WX GRIDS AND RNFL INTENSITY WERE UPDATED THRU MON USING HRLY PROXY HRLY RADAR REF GRIDS. THIS RESULTED IN THE BRICK WALL AFFECT OF ADVCG POPS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSETTING OVRRNG RNFL FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REMAINING NE HLF OF THE FA CURRENTLY NOT EXPERIENCING RNFL. ALSO...THIS ALLOWED US TO EASILY CONSTRUCT HRLY TM AND SPATIALLY COHERENT MDT AND HVY RN GRIDS INTO THIS EVE. AFTWRDS...MAX 6 HRLY QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT JUSTIFY ANYTHING ABV LGT INTENSITY RNFL. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY THRU THIS AFTN BASED ON TRENDS SEEN FROM OBSVD 9 AM TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF TEMPS THIS HR. ORGNL DISC: ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOPRES CREEPING THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS WL CONTINUE TO APCH NEW ENGLAND TDA. 1003MB SFC LOW AS OF 05Z WAS LOCATED OVR CLEVELAND OH. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INTRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVR SRN MAINE AND EXPECT SERLY WINDS WL INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACRS CWA. HV SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF RAIN AS LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SLIGHT EROSION TO PCPN ON LEADING EDGE AS MID- DECK HVG A HARD TIME SATURATING DOWN. EXPECT SHIELD OF RAIN TO MV INTO GREENVILLE-BAR HARBOR LINE BY 12Z THIS MRNG AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THRU THE DAY. TIMING OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FCSTS, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR, WITH RAIN SHIELD MVG INTO A HOULTON-BILLY JACK DEPOT LINE AFT 18Z AND EXTRM NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY AFT 22Z. MAIN CRUX OF 45-50KT JET CORE LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES TDA AND HV KEPT MODERATE RAIN MENTION IN THRU 00Z TONIGHT BFR LLJ SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DVLPNG COASTAL LOW NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVR THE DELMARVA AND PROGGED TO RIDE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z. WITH SUCH STRONG ANOMALOUS WINDS FEEDING IN FM THE ATLANTIC EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TO PCPN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 0.50-1 INCH AMNTS OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN AIDED BY RRQ OF H2 JET STREAK. FOR MAX TEMPS TDA, EXPECT NRLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE SOUTH AND MAXES RISING INTO THE 60S OVR FAR NRN ZONES AS THIS LOCATION WL BE THE LAST TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN TDA. H5 LOW WL BE GIVEN THE KICK IT NEEDS TO EJECT OUT OF NORTHEAST THIS EVNG BY WV DROPPING INTO UPR MIDWEST CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF MN. STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL LOOKS TO DIMINISH BY 00Z TONIGHT BCMG MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ON BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. MAIN BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ACRS THE NORTH THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS WITH DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECTING JUST SCTD SHOWERS AFT MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. DOWNEAST MAY HAVE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES IN. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOOKING AHEAD FROM MIDWEEK ON, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EVERY COUPLE DAYS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH INTERVALS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN AREAS LATE. WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BE CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE. HOWEVER, DYNAMICS ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS, ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AT BHB AND BGR. BY 16Z EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR AT HUL BY 16Z IN -RA AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH WITH FVE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL AFTER 03Z MON. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER SOME SITES TO IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MZ051 AS WINDS GUST OVER 34KTS DURING THE DAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 12Z MON WITH WAVES WELL OVER 5FT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY 00Z MONDAY HAVE CONVERTED MZ051 TO SCA FROM 00Z-12Z MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050-052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ051. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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