Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201416 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1016 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will build over the area today and Saturday. Low pressure from the mid Atlantic will approach Saturday night and track into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1000 AM Update: We reduced morning cld cvr across ern ptns of the FA for the remainder of the morn into the aftn. Also...fcst hrly and aftn hi temps were modified based on trends seen with mid morn obsvd temps...with the bias of the trend upwards by 1 to 3 deg F from the prev fcst. Lastly, prelim work has been done for ovrngt lows and hi temps on Sat. Orgnl Disc: Upr low wl cont to loosen its grip on the area this mrng and take the last vestiges of showers with it arnd daybreak. Drier air wl filter in on its heel leading to a partly and eventually mostly sunny day. Aftn maxes wl climb well into the 70s for all areas except right along the immediate coast where towns wl struggle to reach 70F. S/wv ridging wl build into the state drg the aftn ahd of next wv dropping south. Vry little wx to speak of for Fri night ahd of next cdfnt dropping south out of Quebec on Sat. Clr skies can be expected with mins right around 50F at most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will bring another mostly sunny and very warm day on Saturday. A bit of moisture pushing north from low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic may result in a couple stray showers or thundershowers over the western mountains Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, Saturday will be very warm and summerlike across the area. We are watching a band of smoke across Quebec which has migrated there from forest fires in western Canada. This could stray into our area bringing a bit of haze on Saturday. Low pressure from the Mid-Atlantic will approach Saturday night bringing increasing cloudiness. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday, a weak surface trough out ahead of the low, just north of surface ridging inland from the coast, will result in a weak frontal boundary and area of surface convergence across northern Maine. This may produce some showers across the north, separate from the area of rain and drizzle associated with the low near or just off the coast with the low. The result will be a chance of showers north and a chance of rain along the coast on Sunday with a gap over central areas where the surface ridging lingers. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The low in the Gulf of Maine will linger and then weaken Sunday night bringing clouds and some light rain or drizzle to the Downeast area. As the upper trough remains off the Mid-Atlantic coast, a secondary low will approach late Monday into Monday night. However, the latest guidance is weakening and dissipating this low before it reaches our area on Tuesday. this will allow for a partly sunny and warm day with just small chances for a shower. Wednesday will then likely be cloudier as the Mid-Atlantic upper low weakens and lifts just south of the area. Spotty showers or drizzle will be possible Wednesday. Variable cloudiness will continue Thursday and a small low in the westerlies may approach to bring some showers or thunderstorms on Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure on Saturday. Conditions may lower to MVFR in increasing moisture and lowering clouds Saturday night. MVFR to VFR conditions across the north and IFR conditions in lower clouds Downeast are likely Sunday into Sunday night. Conditions should improve to VFR on Monday, first across the north then Downeast as low pressure dissipates. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria into Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA Saturday into Saturday night. A SCA will likely be needed late Sunday into Sunday night, and possibly a gale for the offshore waters, as low pressure migrates into the Gulf of Maine. Winds should then diminish below SCA on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.