Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171017 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 617 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today. A warm front will approach tonight and lift across the region on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...Cold front continues to move across the region this morning with winds starting to shift into the northwest behind the front. Still some patchy fog being reported at a few places but this should continue to dissipate as the front continues to move through. Otherwise partly sunny skies this morning will give way to increasing sunshine by afternoon. Minor tweaks were made to hrly temps/dew points and continued patchy fog for another hour or so, otherwise no other changes. previous forecast High pressure will build across the region today in the wake of the cold front crossing the region early this morning. Expect partly sunny skies this morning to give way to increasing sunshine by afternoon. High temperatures today will range from the low to mid 50s across the north and low to mid 60s downeast. Increasing clouds can be expected tonight in advance of an approaching warm front from the west. Although we could see some showers develop across western areas after midnight, most of the rain should hold off until after daybreak Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s across the north and lower 40s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Wmfnt expected to be located in vicinity of New England extndg fm sfc low just south of James Bay by 12z Tue. Sfc hipres rmng acrs nrn Newfoundland/Quebec wl keep ridge axis acrs New Brunswick thru the mrng on Tue. This wl retain a continual supply of erly flow acrs most of CWA drg the mrng btwn veering to the southeast mid-late aftn acrs ern zones. Erly sfc winds wl lkly keep nrn areas locked in the 40s until evng hrs when wmfnt finally passes thru region. Srn zones shud rise into the 50s by noon, contg to rise fm there. Expect hichc- lkly showers drg the day as wmfnt and waa conts acrs the area. Temps wl continue to warm on Tue night with low temps acrs the Allagash likely to be the only ones set in the mrng hrs as rmndr of CWA wl see low temps early in the evng. Sfc fnt wl appch the international brdr by 06z Wed, leading to lkly pops, mainly acrs nrn zones. Elevated instability along bndry wl hv the potential to generate isold lightning strikes, thus hv included slgt chc thunder btwn 21z-00z Tue aftn for areas north of Kokadjo-Van Buren line. As bndry shifts south drg the night, expect chc for thunder wl creep south along bndry with elevated instability on the wane aft 04z. Little in the way of cld air wl mv in bhnd bndry with temps rising to nr 70F acrs Downeast and L60s acrs the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Hipres wl build in bhnd front beginning Wed ngt bfr quickly being shoved east. Next upr lvl trof wl dig into the middle of the nation Thur mrng with srly flow being pumped into CWA. Med range guidance disagree on how quickly airmass saturates but all agree on continual moisture being pumped into NE US thru the end of the week. Potential exists for an extndd pd of rain beginning Thur ngt and contg into the weekend. Some discrepancies on how much tropical moisture can get drawn in fm potential tropical system sitting off of the southeast coast. Trof expected to mv thru late in the weekend bringing showers to an end with temps dropping to blo normal by the end of the extndd. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings will persist across the northern terminals early this morning, otherwise VFR conditions can be expected through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions tonight will give way to MVFR restrictions Tue morning as warm front and associated showers lift thru terminals. Potential exists for IFR in heavy rainfall. In addition, may see LLWS Tue afternoon and evening, mainly during the evening hours as 40-45kt low-level jet lifts through. Cdfnt moves through Wed morning improving conditions to VFR. MVFR/IFR expected beginning Thur afternoon with possible IFR conditions on Friday at all terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory level through tonight. SHORT TERM: SCA levels expected to be reached Tue night with seas over 5 feet in southerly swell. Winds may also gust over 25kts as gradient tightens. Levels will remain below SCA criteria from Wed afternoon through the end of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.