Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 052253 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 553 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Wednesday morning. High pressure will build south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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540 PM Update: The hold on sn across the N looks very shaky erly this eve with the aob fzg layer of air being attacked both at the BL and alf aoa 4000ft agl. Precip type progs from many models and the SREF indicate a chgovr to msly all rn at most Nrn lctns arnd 7 to 8 pm, and with with relatively lgt QPF of arnd 0.10 to 0.15 and SLRs of 6 to 8:1 til then, snfl will be lmtd to msly less than an inch until then. Otherwise, we added rn hvy attms later tngt thru the late ngt using 0.50 in per 6hr QPF as a min threshold. Lastly, we incorporated latest obsvd temps/dwpts into fcst hrly temps into the ovrngt, with the obsvd trend a little slower to warm then the prev fcst, but this should reverse later tngt as stronger llvl warm advcn ensues. Orgnl Disc: Spotty precipitation has been moving across central and northern parts of the CWA this morning into the early afternoon, and a light rain shower was recently reported in the Bangor metro as well. A broader shield of precipitation is spreading over the CWA as of mid-afternoon, and while there may be some breaks in that shield this afternoon and evening, fairly steady precip appears likely overnight. The total rainfall forecast was not changed much - increased a bit downeast and decreased a bit in the North Woods. Models are in good agreement that the heaviest precip will occur between 03z and 12z from the Moosehead region to Downeast, which matches well with when the strongest winds and moisture flux is expected. A mix of rain and snow, perhaps a bit of sleet in a few spots, is possible this afternoon into the early evening for the Central Highlands into Aroostook County, before southerly winds bring enough warm air northward to change all areas to rain. The front timing was sped up a bit, based on good agreement in the 12z models of the front getting to the New Brunswick border by 12z Wed. Cold air filters in behind the front, but may not be fast enough to change the last lingering showers to snow before the precip departs. Headlines were maintained as timing of onset of strong winds was similar to the overnight forecast package. While leaves are off the trees and the ground hasn`t been saturated ahead of time, some downed trees and power outages can`t be ruled out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large upper level trough will be digging into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. We will be in a corridor of dry air running between a long southern branch stretch of moisture well to our south and moisture pooled in the upper trough to our west. This will bring partly cloudy and dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday. The only exception may be a few flurries across the higher elevations to our west on Thursday. The corridor of dry weather will remain across the region Thursday night through Friday with only a few spotty flurries possible in far northwestern areas. Clouds may begin to increase over coastal Downeast areas late Friday as a wave of low pressure along the southern branch jet, off the Mid-Atlantic coast, begins to lift north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A rather flat wave of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will begin tracking north northeast Friday night possibly bringing some light snow or rain onto coastal Downeast areas overnight. The low is expected to quickly track northeast passing well south of Nova Scotia on Saturday. Any snow over southeastern Downeast areas will taper off giving way to dry weather across the area Saturday night through Sunday. Another low tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night may take a swipe at the eastern Downeast areas again late Sunday night into Monday morning. The latest guidance is suggesting this low may also slide well to our east favoring the southeastern corner of our area possibly getting some snow early Monday before the low tracks well southeast of Nova Scotia. Dry weather should then persist through Monday night and Tuesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS models are now showing the potential for a major storm for mid-week next week bringing wind and snow or snow changing to rain across our area on Wednesday followed by frigid winds to end the week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR to IFR ceilings have been consistent across the area so far today, and as precipitation spreads across the state, degradation to widespread IFR and occasional LIFR CIGs and visibility is expected at all locations. Wind shear is also expected at BGR and BHB for several hours overnight as the core of the low level jet pushes across the Bangor metro and Downeast. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with the possible exception of some brief MVFR conditions in lower stratus over the St. John valley at times. VFR conditions should persist through Friday, then may lower to MVFR along the coast late Friday night into Saturday as low pressure tracking out to east brushes the coast. VFR conditions should continue over the north Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas have been gradually increasing through the day, and will continue to increase this evening. Gale force winds should arrive soon after 00z, with winds expected to peak between midnight and 6pm with gusts up to 45 kts. Significant seas will peak in the 12 to 18 ft range late tonight into early Wed AM. Both winds and seas will quickly subside after 12z Wed, though seas may remain above SCA levels through the day Wed. SHORT TERM: Winds may approach SCA over the offshore waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds should be below SCA Thursday night but may reach SCA across the offshore waters on Friday. Winds should be below SCA on Saturday. Some light rain or snow is also possible over the waters Saturday as low pressure slides east of the region. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A strong southerly onshore flow will allow for a storm surge of around 1 foot or more from the Penobscot Bay north later tonight. Waves will also be building today and tonight with southerly exposed shorelines expected to see waves of 8 to 10 feet late tonight into Wednesday morning. Fortunately for Hancock county the surge and biggest waves will occur right around low tide early Wednesday morning which will limit any coastal flooding concerns. Further north up the coast the timing still isn`t optimal but the eastern Washington county coastline will have a better chance for some splash over issues right before high tide on Wednesday around noon, but even here winds will be shifting to the southwest and decreasing around 0900L. A coastal flood statement could be needed for zone030 due to some splash over and minor erosion issues on Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ015-016-029. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ017-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
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