Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 201416
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1016 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016
Warm high pressure will build over the area today and Saturday.
Low pressure from the mid Atlantic will approach Saturday night
and track into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --1000 AM Update: We reduced morning cld cvr across ern ptns of the
FA for the remainder of the morn into the aftn. Also...fcst hrly
and aftn hi temps were modified based on trends seen with mid morn
obsvd temps...with the bias of the trend upwards by 1 to 3 deg F
from the prev fcst. Lastly, prelim work has been done for ovrngt
lows and hi temps on Sat.
Orgnl Disc: Upr low wl cont to loosen its grip on the area this
mrng and take the last vestiges of showers with it arnd daybreak.
Drier air wl filter in on its heel leading to a partly and
eventually mostly sunny day. Aftn maxes wl climb well into the 70s
for all areas except right along the immediate coast where towns
wl struggle to reach 70F. S/wv ridging wl build into the state drg
the aftn ahd of next wv dropping south. Vry little wx to speak of
for Fri night ahd of next cdfnt dropping south out of Quebec on
Sat. Clr skies can be expected with mins right around 50F at most
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will bring
another mostly sunny and very warm day on Saturday. A bit of
moisture pushing north from low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic may
result in a couple stray showers or thundershowers over the
western mountains Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, Saturday will be
very warm and summerlike across the area. We are watching a band
of smoke across Quebec which has migrated there from forest fires
in western Canada. This could stray into our area bringing a bit
of haze on Saturday. Low pressure from the Mid-Atlantic will
approach Saturday night bringing increasing cloudiness. As the low
tracks into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday, a weak surface trough out
ahead of the low, just north of surface ridging inland from the
coast, will result in a weak frontal boundary and area of surface
convergence across northern Maine. This may produce some showers
across the north, separate from the area of rain and drizzle
associated with the low near or just off the coast with the low.
The result will be a chance of showers north and a chance of rain
along the coast on Sunday with a gap over central areas where the
surface ridging lingers.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The low in the Gulf of Maine will linger and then weaken Sunday
night bringing clouds and some light rain or drizzle to the
Downeast area. As the upper trough remains off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, a secondary low will approach late Monday into Monday
night. However, the latest guidance is weakening and dissipating
this low before it reaches our area on Tuesday. this will allow
for a partly sunny and warm day with just small chances for a
shower. Wednesday will then likely be cloudier as the Mid-Atlantic
upper low weakens and lifts just south of the area. Spotty showers
or drizzle will be possible Wednesday. Variable cloudiness will
continue Thursday and a small low in the westerlies may approach
to bring some showers or thunderstorms on Thursday.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure on
Saturday. Conditions may lower to MVFR in increasing moisture and
lowering clouds Saturday night. MVFR to VFR conditions across the
north and IFR conditions in lower clouds Downeast are likely
Sunday into Sunday night. Conditions should improve to VFR on
Monday, first across the north then Downeast as low pressure
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria into
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA Saturday into
Saturday night. A SCA will likely be needed late Sunday into
Sunday night, and possibly a gale for the offshore waters, as low
pressure migrates into the Gulf of Maine. Winds should then
diminish below SCA on Monday.