Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140121 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 921 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area tonight. Weak low pressure crosses to the south of the area later Thursday and exits to the east on Saturday. High pressure builds in briefly Saturday night before low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday and crosses the area Sunday evening, and lifts north of the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY...
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9:21 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations show a couple of patches of clouds expanding across Aroostook County while additional clouds stream into the CWA from the west. Area radars are showing returns to moving into western sections of the area, but most of this activity is likely not reaching the ground and is associated with weak warm advection. There will will likely be a better chance of showers (rain or snow) very late tonight and tomorrow as a warm front lifts across the area. Minor changes to account for the current and expected conditions for the remainder of tonight. Previous discussion: High pressure remains across the area through this evening, persisting mostly clear skies across most of the forecast area. A band of stratocu has begun to retrograde into the area from across New Brunswick to the east, and combined with incoming cloud cover ahead of another low to the southwest, skies will become more overcast through the night tonight. Light winds and overcast skies will prevent temperatures from significantly cooling off, so lows tonight will only fall into the low to mid 30s across the forecast area. A weak shortwave will cross the area through the day on Thursday, bringing a mix of snow and rain showers to the area, with more rain into the afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Isolated rain showers could make it as far south as the interior Downeast region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Thursday Night... Weak skinny area of high pressure over the area Thursday night will lead to lighter winds. Added patchy fog to the forecast based on the lighter winds and decent amount of moisture trapped at lower levels. Didn`t have enough confidence to put it in the forecast yet, but can`t rule out patchy freezing drizzle mainly in the north thanks to the low level moisture and lack of ice nuclei in the cloud layer just below freezing. Friday... A weak system moving through fast westerly flow could bring light to moderate precipitation mainly to southern portions of the area, mainly Friday morning. This is a challenging forecast, however, as models are in poor agreement on the track of the surface low and precipitation shield. Went with likely PoPs south of Lincoln and Greenville for now, but there`s a chance all the precipitation could stay south of our area, as some global ensemble members and the RRFS indicate. Precipitation type will also be a challenge due to temperatures right around freezing. Don`t anticipate sleet or freezing rain, but rain vs snow, if the precip shield tracks over our area, will be a very tough call. If everything works out right, there could be a narrow stripe of several inches of snow on the northern edge of the precip, most likely somewhere Downeast or north to Millinocket and Greenville. There could also be no snow if the system tracks further south. Stay tuned. Friday Night and Saturday... Generally mostly cloudy with a slight chance or chance of rain or snow showers under W/NW flow. Temperatures remaining a little above average.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Next system likely to impact the area Sunday afternoon and evening with rain and snow. Upper level low will be passing from west to east to our north, with an upper trough axis extending south from the low. As the trough axis moves through, we should see a weak surface low develop over Downeast or the far northeast Gulf of Maine. Models are in decent agreement on the overall setup for the system...enough to go for PoPs around 80 percent for the entire area. However, temperatures again will be right around freezing and rain vs snow will be a tough call. There is a decent potential of a few inches of snow mainly in the north. Advisory level snow is possible, but warning level snow looks unlikely. After this system moves through, we look to remain seasonably cool and fairly breezy under unstable NW flow, with some rain/snow showers Monday through Wednesday, but no significant weather systems. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all forecast terminals this evening. cigs will decrease to MVFR later tonight at the northern terminals. Conditions may continue to decrease into the day on Thursday as rain showers cross the area, mixing with snow over Aroostook terminals, and vis and cigs will fall to MVFR to potentially IFR over northern terminals, to low-end VFR at BGR/BHB. Winds light and variable overnight tonight becoming S at 5 to 10 kts through the day on Thursday. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...Variable conditions with some IFR but also VFR, with patchy fog later in the night and into early Friday morning. Light winds. Friday...For the north, generally looking at MVFR conditions. Low confidence in the forecast Downeast including BHB and BGR. Light precipitation is possible, and if it materializes, IFR is possible, but if the precipitation stays south, it could be VFR. N wind 5-10 kts. Friday night and Saturday...Generally MVFR north and VFR Downeast. NW winds around 5 kts. Sunday to Monday...Rain and snow and IFR conditions are likely from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Breezy with SE winds 10-20 kts Sunday switching to the W/NW 10-20 kts Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight with high pressure in the area. Winds and seas will continue below SCA levels through the day on Thursday as a low pressure system passes to the north. SHORT TERM: Next likely small craft comes Sunday with SE winds and seas to around 5 feet ahead of an approaching system. Winds switch to SW on Monday and conditions should fall back to just below small craft levels on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/CB Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Foisy Marine...AStrauser/CB/Foisy

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