Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 172249 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 0645 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AT THIS HOUR WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PENOBSCOTT COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER NW AROOSTOOK COUNTY. REDUCED EVENING POPS AND SKY COVER DUE TO THIS TREND HOWEVER STILL EXPECT CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO EVENING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND DEW POINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST LATER MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR LATER TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST...SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 70S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE ALLAGASH COULD EVEN SEE LOW 40S. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...BUT SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL FORM BY LATE MORNING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S...WITH A FEW READINGS APPROACHING 80F TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE ALLAGASH AND NORMALLY COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD SEE UPPER 40S. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80F WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN PLAYS OUT BRINGS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS POINT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON FOR THE MOST PART WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO MODELS HAVE MOVED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THINKING GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH LOOK TO STAY NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY FOG EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED WITH SEAS RUNNING ONE TO THREE FEET IN A SOUTH SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MCW MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MCW

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