Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 132215
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
615 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area tonight. Weak low pressure
crosses to the south of the area later Thursday and exits to the
east on Saturday. High pressure builds in briefly Saturday
night before low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday and
crosses the area Sunday evening, and lifts north of the area
Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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6:15 PM Update: Satellite pictures show clouds advancing toward
the FA from the west. There are some additional clouds across
parts of Aroostook and eastern Washington County that are
dissipating a bit. Overall, most areas will be clear to partly
cloudy this evening with increasing clouds later tonight. A very
weak warm front may touch of a late night snow shower across
the northwest zones, but no accumulations are expected. Minor
adjustments to the sky grids for this evening based on the
latest satellite pictures. Otherwise, no significant changes are
planned.
Previous discussion:
High pressure remains across the area through this evening,
persisting mostly clear skies across most of the forecast area.
A band of stratocu has begun to retrograde into the area from
across New Brunswick to the east, and combined with incoming
cloud cover ahead of another low to the southwest, skies will
become more overcast through the night tonight. Light winds and
overcast skies will prevent temperatures from significantly
cooling off, so lows tonight will only fall into the low to mid
30s across the forecast area.
A weak shortwave will cross the area through the day on
Thursday, bringing a mix of snow and rain showers to the area,
with more rain into the afternoon as temperatures warm into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Isolated rain showers could make it as
far south as the interior Downeast region.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday Night...
Weak skinny area of high pressure over the area Thursday night
will lead to lighter winds. Added patchy fog to the forecast
based on the lighter winds and decent amount of moisture trapped
at lower levels. Didn`t have enough confidence to put it in the
forecast yet, but can`t rule out patchy freezing drizzle mainly
in the north thanks to the low level moisture and lack of ice
nuclei in the cloud layer just below freezing.
Friday...
A weak system moving through fast westerly flow could bring
light to moderate precipitation mainly to southern portions of
the area, mainly Friday morning. This is a challenging forecast,
however, as models are in poor agreement on the track of the
surface low and precipitation shield. Went with likely PoPs
south of Lincoln and Greenville for now, but there`s a chance
all the precipitation could stay south of our area, as some
global ensemble members and the RRFS indicate. Precipitation
type will also be a challenge due to temperatures right around
freezing. Don`t anticipate sleet or freezing rain, but rain vs
snow, if the precip shield tracks over our area, will be a very
tough call. If everything works out right, there could be a
narrow stripe of several inches of snow on the northern edge of
the precip, most likely somewhere Downeast or north to
Millinocket and Greenville. There could also be no snow if the
system tracks further south. Stay tuned.
Friday Night and Saturday...
Generally mostly cloudy with a slight chance or chance of rain
or snow showers under W/NW flow. Temperatures remaining a little
above average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next system likely to impact the area Sunday afternoon and
evening with rain and snow. Upper level low will be passing
from west to east to our north, with an upper trough axis
extending south from the low. As the trough axis moves through,
we should see a weak surface low develop over Downeast or the
far northeast Gulf of Maine. Models are in decent agreement on
the overall setup for the system...enough to go for PoPs around
80 percent for the entire area. However, temperatures again will
be right around freezing and rain vs snow will be a tough call.
There is a decent potential of a few inches of snow mainly in
the north. Advisory level snow is possible, but warning level
snow looks unlikely.
After this system moves through, we look to remain seasonably cool
and fairly breezy under unstable NW flow, with some rain/snow
showers Monday through Wednesday, but no significant weather
systems.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all forecast terminals early this evening.
cigs will decrease to MVFR later tonight at the northern
terminals. Conditions may continue to decrease into the day on
Thursday as rain showers cross the area, mixing with snow over
Aroostook terminals, and vis and cigs will fall to MVFR to
potentially IFR over northern terminals, to low-end VFR at
BGR/BHB. Winds light and variable overnight tonight becoming S
at 5 to 10 kts through the day on Thursday.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...Variable conditions with some IFR but also VFR,
with patchy fog later in the night and into early Friday
morning. Light winds.
Friday...For the north, generally looking at MVFR conditions.
Low confidence in the forecast Downeast including BHB and BGR.
Light precipitation is possible, and if it materializes, IFR is
possible, but if the precipitation stays south, it could be VFR.
N wind 5-10 kts.
Friday night and Saturday...Generally MVFR north and VFR
Downeast. NW winds around 5 kts.
Sunday to Monday...Rain and snow and IFR conditions are likely
from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Breezy with SE winds
10-20 kts Sunday switching to the W/NW 10-20 kts Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight with high pressure in the area. Winds and seas will
continue below SCA levels through the day on Thursday as a low
pressure system passes to the north.
SHORT TERM: Next likely small craft comes Sunday with SE winds
and seas to around 5 feet ahead of an approaching system. Winds
switch to SW on Monday and conditions should fall back to just
below small craft levels on Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser/CB
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Foisy
Marine...AStrauser/CB/Foisy