Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201353 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 953 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds into the region this afternoon. Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Friday and re-develops in the Gulf of Maine late Friday night. The low will pass just south of Nova Scotia Saturday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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948 am update...Area remains stuck under decaying frontal boundary with a lot of low level moisture trapped under a strong inversion. The result is areas of fog, light rain and drizzle today and tonight. Lowered highs for today and increased lows for tonight in response to the dense low cloudiness. Prev discussion blo... Steady pcpn is exiting into New Brunswick as of this time and seems to correlate well with s/wv as seen on WV imagery. Only a few lgt showers wl exist, mainly acrs the north this mrng, as occlusion weakens overhead. Nrly flow wl be present acrs the north and west tda with flow out of the east- southeast acrs srn zones lkly leading to upslope low clds and drizzle. For the time being hv just indicated patchy fog dvlpng in Downeast areas aft 00z but cannot rule out drizzle drg the aftn hrs. Because of this reason hv lowered temps by a couple of degrees tda tho still warmer than yda due to warming H9 temps. Sfc low currently located in the upr Midwest wl mv thru the Great Lakes tda. Outside of drizzle, low clouds and fog this aftn not expecting much falling thru the end of the short term. Isentropic lift looks to increase twd daybreak Fri mrng with lgt rain falling in Downeast zones shortly aft daybreak and a rain/snow mix acrs the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled, damp, dreary, and even some spring snow in parts of the CWA during the short term. Friday starts with a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system near Ottawa with a surface trough extending into central PA. As the primary low pressure system moves east into Quebec Friday evening a secondary low forms near Long Island. The secondary low takes over later Fri night into Sat morning in the Gulf of Maine passing slowly to the south of Nova scotia Sat afternoon. Low clouds along with patchy drizzle, fog, and light rain will gradually give way to some steadier rain during the day Friday. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS indicate it will be mild enough in the low levels for rain Friday with the only possible exception of higher elevations in northern areas where some wet snow would be possible in the morning, but there will likely not be much in the way of QPF in the morning so little/no snow accumulation is expected. The atmosphere cools Friday evening with rain to change over to snow, first in the north and west, and by late evening snow should be falling across roughly the northern third of the CWA from northern Somerset County east to around Houlton. The rain will gradually mix with snow after midnight further to the south, but the precipitation will likely remain in the form of rain along the coast all night. As far as snow accumulation goes, a few inches are possible to the north of the Katahdin Region to the Saint John Valley, and it is possible that amounts of 3 to 6 inches may affect the higher terrain of the North Woods. On Saturday, the upper through moves in from the west and it remains unsettled with snow showers in the north that may mix or change to rain showers at times in the north with rain showers to the south that may for a time mix with some wet snow in the morning. It remains damp and cool all day with highs in the upper 30s across the Crown to the low 40s toward the coast. All in all, not a very nice start the weekend for northern and eastern Maine. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough pulls east Sat night and some weak mix level ridging very briefly builds over the area. It likely remains cloudy, but mainly dry Sat night. By Sunday, the area will be between weather systems as a front approaches late in the day from Quebec and low pressure begins to take shape well to the south of the area along the Virgina Coast. Sunday should turn out dry, or at least mainly so, with nothing more than an isolated shower. Clouds will likely have th upper hand, although a few breaks of sunshine are possible. Temperatures will be seasonable and a little warmer than Saturday with upper 40s north to mid 50s in the Greater Bangor Region. A frontal boundary stalls out across far northern Maine Sunday night with a few showers possible late Sun night into Mon morning that may drift down into the Downeast Region Mon afternoon. Generally dry and seasonable for Tue and Wed as low pressure moves from the western Great Lakes and into western Quebec. The flow may lead to some low clouds, patchy drizzle and fog by Wed morning, mainly for areas toward the coast. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR at BHB and BGR next 24 hours in br and -dz. For northern terminals IFR starting out at all but PQI and all sites shud improve to low MVFR in the afternoon before dropping back to IFR during the evening and into the overnight in extensive low level moisture. SHORT TERM: Unsettled weather Friday through the weekend with IFR and MVFR much of the time. LIFR or VLIFR possible in snow Fri night into Sat morning at the northern terminals. Conditions may improve in some areas to VFR by Sun afternoon, especially Downeast terminals, but confidence is not high. Mostly VFR by Monday. && .MARINE...
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Update...cancelled SCA as conditions fell below criteria. NEAR TERM: SCA continues for all waters through 15z this morning for winds and seas. Conditions will remain below small craft levels through Fri morning. SHORT TERM: As low pressure passes just south of the waters Fri night into Sat there is the potential for low end small craft advisory conditions, but at this time is appears borderline and too far out in time to issue an advisory.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Farrar/MCW/CB Marine...Farrar/MCW/CB

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