Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the region this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight into Saturday. Another cold front will begin to cross the region later Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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6:13 PM Update...Showers will continue to track northeast this evening across northern and central portions of the CWA, with mainly dry weather for the next few hours across Downeast areas where some areas have broken out into a decent amount of sunshine early this evening. Low clouds are seen on satellite lifting north off the water and will likely continue to expand to the north this evening. Made some tweaks to the PoP/Wx/Sky grids based mainly on the latest satellite images and radar returns. Another wave of moisture back in the Ohio Valley could clip the Downeast areas Saturday morning, and this will need to be watched closely tonight. Previous discussion... Isolated thunderstorms and localized heavy rain still a threat for the remainder of this afternoon into the overnight. A warm front currently lies stretches from northern NY to extreme southern ME this afternoon. This boundary will continue to slowly trek northward overnight. Some clearing has occurred just ahead of the boundary, allowing thunderstorms to develop over central/southern New England. Our region has remained out of the sunshine and is therefore pretty stable, but can`t rule out a possible thunderstorm or two over the Bangor region through late afternoon. Thereafter, the focus will turn to northern Maine as elevated instability moves in, along with good warm air advection. PWATs will approach 2 inches, as well. The combination of these parameters will allow areas of moderate to locally heavy rain to cross from southwest to northeast overnight, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder or two. The warm front will push through just about the entire region by late tonight, then a cold front will begin to make its way southward. This will shunt the steadiest activity southward toward the coast. With plentiful moisture around tonight, overnight lows will be on the uncomfortable side, mainly in the lower and mid 60s. As mentioned above, the cold front will be making its way southward through the state on Saturday. Expect showers will be focused over Downeast Maine by mid morning. These will push offshore during the afternoon hours. Breaks of sunshine will develop thereafter with a few showers lingering across the north. Highs will be warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though winds will be a little breezy out of the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Progressive fast flow with below normal mid tropospheric pres hts alf will result in rapid chgs in sensible wx both in the short and long term. Any eve shwrs Sat eve should dissipate by erly Sun morn as an initial s/wv ridge alf builds from the W ovr the Rgn. This will be followed up by a fast movg s/wv trof alf for Sun aftn, resulting in a fair start Sun morn becoming ptly to msly cldy with sct shwrs/tstms in the aftn and eve. Whats left of the upper trof and a weak cold front will also result in sct shwrs and aftn tstms on Mon, but more so ovr Cntrl ptns of the Rgn tan the far N. Temps will be near to slightly below avg in the short term for this tm of season. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other progressive s/wvs alf from E Cntrl Can will keep msly unsettled conditions for the Rgn msly for aftn and eve hrs for Tue and Wed where sct shwrs will have the greatest chc of occurrence. Most longer range models then indicate a more sig s/wv for Thu into Thu ngt from Cntrl Can accompanied by a surge of warmer air for the late week. Given rapid speed of s/wvs and tmg uncertainties, for now outside of high trrn, we kept max PoPs for any shwr activity in the hi chc range for now, with later fcst updates re-visiting the weighting of higher PoPs for specific s/wvs as they become closer in real tm. What can be said attm is that there does not look to be any lengthy rn pds, but also not much opportunity be to rn free for much greater than 12 hrs attm, spcly for the N hlf of the Rgn. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR with pockets of IFR early this evening will lower to LIFR to IFR this evening as low ceilings and fog set in. Showers will be most persistent at the northern terminals, and a thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out this evening. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing showers to an end and raising conditions to MVFR from north to south after 11z Sat. All sites to be MVFR or VFR by 18z Sat. SHORT TO LONG TERM: All TAF sites will mainly be VFR Sat ngt thru Wed, xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys attms in heavier shwrs and isold tstms.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight. The wind and seas are below criteria early this evening, but the wind will likely pick up with gusts of 20-25 kt and seas will build to 4-6 ft. Winds will subside through the day Saturday while becoming westerly behind a cold frontal passage. Winds will subside through the day on Saturday, but seas will linger at 4-6 ft, so the SCA may need to be extended and transitioned over to one for hazardous seas only. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated for these ptns of the fcst attm, with wv hts ovr outer MZs decreasing from SCA thresholds Sat ngt. Went with 75 to 85 percent of WW3 wv guidance or fcst wv hts with primary wv pds will ranging from 5 to 7 sec.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There is potential for very heavy downpours this evening into the overnight along a slow moving warm frontal boundary. The highest risk at this time will be mostly north of a line from Dover- Foxcroft towards Houlton. Urban and small stream flooding are the risks as a half inch or more of rain could fall within a very short time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hastings Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings/Hastings Hydrology...Hastings

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