Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181041 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 641 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:30 AM Update...Visibilities in dense fog have dropped to a quarter mile both up north and Downeast so have issued a dense fog advisory until 8 AM this morning. Fog should dissipate through mid-morning. Low clouds and fog will be present again early this morning across the Downeast area with some patchy fog and stratus further north. The fog will dissipate around midday giving way to a partly sunny, warm and humid day today as strong upper level ridging remains over the area. However, temperatures will not be quite as warm as yesterday with highs generally in the low 70s across the area. Tonight will be another humid night with the fog and low stratus once again forming, especially Downeast, as strong upper level ridging and surface high pressure remain over the area. Fog will likely push north into at least central areas with some patchy fog possible across the north by early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Our focus on Tuesday will be on the northern edge of hurricane Jose. The storm center will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast and slowly moving north. Guidance has been consistent in showing a northern rain band pushing into the Downeast region. The rain is expected to push ashore Tuesday morning and continue across the Downeast region into Tuesday night. Rain totals from this band may be close to an inch near the coast with less over northern Downeast areas. Little or no rain is expected over northern areas. Winds on the northern edge of the storm may approach 20 mph with gusts to 30 along the coast. The main impact from the storm will be seas which may build up to 8-10 ft by Wednesday. This may result in some splashover along coastal roads at the times of high tide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain should taper off early Wednesday morning. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Downeast, but likely clear over the north as high pressure pushes down from Canada. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... All interests will be focused on Hurricane Jose for the early portion of this term. The official track from NHC showed Hurricane Jose staying e of Cape Cod and then spinning back around over the open Atlantic dropping south. The main effects that our coastal areas could see will be large waves w/the risk of some minor coastal flooding as stated by the short term section above. After collaboration w/GYX, decided to stay w/a blend of the guidance and showed the northern fringe of the rain pulling away from the coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The strongest winds(35 mph) will stay out over the Gulf of Maine waters. Further n, dry conditions to continue. Daytime temps on Thursday are expected to continue to be above normal for mid September. The long range guidance shows high pres building across the New England region right into the weekend w/daytime temps moderating into the upper 70s and lower 80s by the start to the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions are expected in fog early this morning, especially Downeast. Conditions should improve to VFR today then drop to IFR again tonight in low clouds and fog, mainly Downeast. SHORT TERM: Conditions will improve to VFR over the north on Tuesday but likely remain IFR or MVFR in low clouds and rain Downeast. IFR conditions are likely in rain and low clouds Downeast Tuesday night with MVFR to VFR conditions over the north. Conditions should improve to VFR from north to south on Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Swell from hurricane Jose will build seas to 5 ft today then 6 ft tonight. However, winds should remain below SCA today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 8 ft on Tuesday with winds remaining below SCA. Winds will likely reach SCA late Tuesday night into Wednesday, and possibly gale on Wednesday, as seas from hurricane Jose build to 10 ft. Current guidance on the track of the center of hurricane Jose takes the storm up to around latitude 40.5 due south of our area Wednesday evening, then turns the storm back to the southeast thus only brushing our area with the northern fringes of it`s influence. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides and building seas will produce a threat of coastal flooding and minor overwash over several high tide cycles Tuesday into Wednesday. High surf will also be a concern with the building seas. Seas will approach 6-8 feet Tuesday and 8-10 feet on Wednesday. High tides along the Downeast coast will be around 10:45 AM and 11:00 PM Tuesday and 11:30 AM and 11:50 PM Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Bloomer Marine...Bloomer/Bloomer Tides/Coastal Flooding...Bloomer

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