Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040431 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1131 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MIDNIGHT UPDATE: SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND IS HEAVY IN SOME AREA. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES TOWARD MORNING. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS DROPPED TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE E W/MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ENE PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES DID WARM QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. CLOUDINESS IS THIN ATTM AND EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY W/A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPREADING ACROSS NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIP WAS IN ASSOCIATION W/A STRONG JETLET FROM 850-700MBS OF 50-60 KTS AND WAA. THE NAM WAS HANDLING THIS SET UP WELL. THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED WELL BUT WAS TOO FAST ON BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL W/WAA EVENTS SUCH AS THIS ONE, WAS IN LINE W/THE NAM. ALL THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER WAS TOO COLD PER THE LAST 3HR TRENDS. THIS COULD MAKE IT A CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL FIRST SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST THIS EVENING AND LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT(ABOUT 2 HRS) AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS IS W/THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING(1000-700MB). IT WILL BE A FAST EVENT AND THE BEST DYNAMICS LIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/DRY SLOTTING PUSHING INTO THE REGION SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED W/HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. A MILD DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F ALL THE WAY TO THE CROWN OF MAINE W/LOWER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWEAST(BANGOR) AND THE COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A WSW DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND W/DEWPOINTS INT THE TEENS AND 20S, IT APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION AND TRUE MELTING WILL OCCUR W/COMPACTION AND SETTLING OF SNOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER THAN AVERAGE AND GENERALLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY, THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST MODELS DEVELOP A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME MODELS PUSH THE WARM AIR EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE OTHERS HOLD ONTO THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SO LONG. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY TO IFR W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT IFR INTO EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY MIDDAY TO VFR. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR BY MID MORNING W/VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECTED WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER TONIHGT AND GUSTS COULD HIT 35 KTS FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO A 45-50 KT LLVL JET. DECIDED TO USE THE NAM12/GFS40 BLEND FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. WAVES AREA FOREAST TO BUILD ACCORDINGLY W/THE SSW FETCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S SETUP OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWELL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP WITH WAVE GENERATION. SHORT TERM: OFFSHORE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002>006-010-011-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER

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