Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130313 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1013 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region tonight through early Friday. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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10 PM Update...Dense fog has been observed in some locations and is likely resulting from moist air over cold ground in light winds ahead of the front so included areas of fog. Also, another cluster of showers is moving into northern areas so increased pops early in the overnight period and raised temps a couple degrees. Low pressure will continue to slide northeastward along a frontal boundary draped nearly along the Saint Lawrence River valley. The precipitation associated with this low is just now pushing into southern Maine, and it too will lift northeast through this evening. Temperatures will remain above freezing until this evening, so expect the bulk of this precipitation will fall as rain. Once the low moves to our east, it will drag a cold front southward in its wake. This will usher in colder air overnight, which will transition the rain over to snow. However, at the same time, precipitation will taper to an end, so expect little to no snow accumulation south of a Van Buren to Billy- Jack Depot line. For Friday...a secondary cold front will cross the area during the day, with the true arctic air to follow. As such, temperatures will fall through the day. Given this cold air advection, streamers off the Saint Lawrence are a possibility, so have added a slight chance of snow showers across the north. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies for much of the area. Highs will likely occur near daybreak, ranging from the lower 20s in the north and west to the lower 30s in Bangor and Downeast. These will drop a good 10 degrees by sunset. Gusty west winds will make it feel that much colder.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fairly quiet weather is expected for the weekend as two areas of high pressure move across the area. The first High will move from Lake Huron to Cape Cod and then offshore between Fri night and Sat eve, while the second High will nose into the CWA from the west Sunday aftn. In between, the base of an upr trof and accompanying weak sfc trof will slide across the state, and a few snow shwrs are psbl, but POPS were kept fairly low. Sat will be quite chilly, with highs ranging from 20 at the coast to single digits up north, and wind chills could stay below zero all day up north. Some moderation is expected Sun, with temps returning closer to seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pres sliding across the CWA Mon followed by upr ridging Tue will maintain the quiet pattern through the start of the long term. However, that comes to an end as the next system approaches for Tue night into Wed, though discrepancy still remains on the exact strength and timing, with the ECMWF still being a bit faster than the GFS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR conditions due to rain, fog, and low ceilings will continue into this evening. A frontal passage will bring precipitation to an end and also usher in colder air; conditions will gradually improve after 06z, with all terminals to be VFR by 12z Fri. A period of LLWS will be possible at BGR and BHB as the front moves through, generally 03z-06z. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the remainder of the day Friday with gusty west to northwest winds. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the weekend, though lower CIGs are possible Sat night into early Sun AM, especially up north. KBGR and KBHB more likely to remain VFR. VFR conditions likely to continue thru Tuesday, with ocnl mid-high bkn or ovc decks. Will need to monitor for psbl MVFR CIGs moving in from west Tue PM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this evening and overnight, with a Gale Watch for Friday. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through this evening, becoming west after midnight. They will then pick up with gusts of 35 to 40 kt by mid morning Friday, continuing into the evening. Seas will remain 6 to 10 feet through the period. SHORT TERM: Offshore Winds will remain strong Fri night, but will diminish Sat AM. Moderate freezing spray may be an issue Fri night into early Sat AM, and will monitor for the need for an advisory. Winds will shift to SW by Sat eve, then incr to 15 kt gusts to 20 kt Sat night. As a trough pushes off the coast, winds will shift NW Sun AM, and incr somewhat, with gusts getting close to SCA criteria again. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCB Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Hastings/Kredensor Marine...Hastings/Kredensor

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