Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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022 FXUS61 KCAR 222251 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 651 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this evening. A secondary cold front will move through on Saturday and push offshore Saturday night. High pressure will build in on Sunday and crest over the region Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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650 pm Update: Severe thunderstorm Watch 408 still in effect through 9 pm. Axis of instability has shifted s across the central and downeast areas per the latest meso-analysis. Latest radar showing storms firing up in this region w/MU CAPES 1000-1500 joules and llvl lapse rates around 7.5 c/km. Since there is still about another 1-1.5 hrs of daylight to aid in destabilization. Still could see some storms across the Aroostook County region as dewpoints still holding in mid 60s but the severe threat has greatly diminished. The second feature can be see on satellite wv imagery moving toward southern Quebec w/lightning showing up. This feature is the one to affect the Central Highlands and Downeast region this evening into the overnight hrs. Previous Discussion... Another round of convection possible overnight as another disturbance moving toward southern Quebec tracks across central Maine. This was seen well on the satellite wv imagery lightning flaring up out ahead of the disturbance. A wind and hail threat along w/the very heavy rainfall. Temps overnight will hold in the 60s w/some patchy fog. An upper level trof w/its associated surface front is forecast to swing across the region on Saturday. Atmosphere will become unstable once again w/SB/MUCAPES hitting 1000+ joules and lis down to -2 to -3. Looks like from the latest NAM and GFS20 hint at cloud cover hanging on which would limit the extent. Decided to stay w/enhanced wording for hail. Activity should weaken by late in the afternoon. Daytime high temps will range in the upper 70s to around 80 across the north and west while central and downeast areas will see mid 80s even as far as the coast due to the west wind.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A secondary cold front will reach the coast Saturday evening. A few thundershowers may still be around, especially downeast, as a function of cool air aloft moving over the area. Otherwise, any showers will taper off Saturday evening and skies will partially clear overnight. Sunday will then turn out mostly sunny Downeast and partly sunny across the north as high pressure builds into the region. This will give way to a clear, calm and comfortable night Sunday night as high pressure crests over the region. High pressure will move east on Monday as the next trough of low pressure begins to approach. Clouds will increase Monday ahead of the trough and humidity levels will rise again. Some thunderstorms may stray into western areas late Monday as the warmer and more humid air advects north beneath relatively cooler air aloft. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper trough and associated cold front swings through Eastern Maine late Monday into Tuesday for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure aloft provides the region with fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday. The next fast moving upper trough and cold front swings through northern New England Thursday and Thursday Night for showers and thunderstorms. Zonal flow aloft should provide for a dry and seasonable day on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR w/tstms into tonight. Conditions look like they will drop MVFR later tonight w/some fog all the way to BGR and BHB. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR after 12Z with more tstms by midday. SHORT TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions Saturday evening should improve to VFR Saturday night. VFR conditions are then expected across the area Sunday through Monday. VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions are likely on Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA for hazardous seas remains up through early Saturday morning for Hazardous seas. Wave model has caught up as it was matching the latest buoys w/5ft. Seas will build another foot or so w/this sustained fetch from the ssw to 6-7 ft. was Winds will be 10-15 kts w/a few gusts to 20 kt. winds turning the w on Saturday as the second front sweeps through the waters. Seas will drop back due to the offshore wind. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Saturday night through Monday. A few winds gusts may approach 20 kt Saturday night into Sunday following a cold front. Winds will then be lighter Sunday night through Monday as high pressure builds over. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Okulski Aviation...Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...Hewitt/Bloomer

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