Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222207 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 607 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from central Canada will move across the region tonight into Friday bringing widespread rain to much of the state. Colder air is expected for the first full weekend of autumn as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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6 PM Update...Forecast remains on track this evening with rain beginning to approach far northwestern areas as of 6 PM. Pops were modified just a bit over the far northwest do delay onset of rain just a bit where most areas remain dry. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Low pressure currently over the eastern Great Lakes will trek eastward along a nearly stationary front that lies just across central New England and off the Maine coast. Rain associated with this low will spread into northwestern Maine this evening and eventually across much of the rest of our area overnight. The low will exit into New Brunswick Friday morning, drawing a cold front in its wake. The rain will gradually shift southward toward the coast as the front crosses the state from northwest to southeast, while the drier air behind the front will bring the precipitation to a fairly rapid end. As such, northern areas are expected to see dry weather and maybe even some sunshine Friday afternoon, while the far Downeast will likely remain rainy through a good part of the day. The highest rainfall totals will be on the northern side of the low`s track; locations along and north of a Danforth to Greenville line will see a half to three-quarters of an inch, with some spots getting a bit more. South of this line, amounts will be a half inch or less; the coast will get a quarter of an inch at most. Tonight`s low temperatures will mainly be in the mid and upper 40s north to the mid and upper 50s south, though some of the colder valleys in the North Woods could drop into the 30s. Friday will be decidedly fall-like as highs will only be in the 50s across the north and the Central Highlands, while Downeast spots will be 60-65.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fall will show up this weekend as cool Canadian airmass pushes into the region Friday night behind the surface cold front. Reinforcing shots of cool air will penetrate into Maine through the weekend which will bring temperatures below average for this time or year. Overall it will be partly cloudy on Saturday, trending to mostly cloudy across the north on Sunday. Cloud cover will be less across Bangor Region and Downeast with downsloping NW flow. The question is how cold will it get overnight in regards to frost development. It doesn`t look to be an optimal radiational cooling night set-up, with 925mb winds remaining around 25kts through the weekend. In addition, some low level stratus could linger around through the night. With that said it is a cold airmass, so sheltered valley areas could drop below 35 degrees across Northern Maine. Frost isn`t expected to reach into the Penobscot Valley or Downeast at this time. A few sprinkles could be possible on Sunday, but overall it will be a brisk and dry weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low confidence in the extended forecast with large spread between the GEM, GFS, ECMWF model families. The large spread is due to a blocking pattern developing across the North Atlantic. The GFS camp has a warmer and drier solution next week, with some support from the GEM. The ECMWF is consistent on bringing in another trough by Tuesday and keeping it cool and damp through the remainder of the week. Went with a blend of the solutions at this time due to large pattern evolution issues. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will gradually lower overnight as rain spreads across the region. Ceilings will lower to AOB 1000 ft late tonight/early Friday from north to south with visibility remaining 4-6 miles. Conditions will then improve from north to south Friday afternoon as the rain moves toward the coast. All sites will return to VFR by 00z Sat. SHORT TERM: Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend with the possibility of some MVFR cigs across the Northern TAF sites. No impacts expected at KBGR/KBHB. There could be some gusty winds that could impact general aviation flights during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines are anticipated over the next 24 hours. Winds and seas will build a bit overnight as low pressure slides by to the north of the waters. However, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels with gusts up to 20 kt and seas around 4 ft. SHORT TERM: No headlines expected this weekend with offshore flow through the entire weekend. Winds will gusts up to 20kts with waves up to 4 feet across the outer waters. No fog is expected with the offshore flow. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/MCB Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Hastings/Dumont Marine...Hastings/Dumont

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