Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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264 FXUS61 KCAR 201428 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1028 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region today. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1010 AM: Fcst hrly temps/dwpts into this aftn were adjusted based on latest mid to late morn obs to, attm, unchgd fcst aftn hi temps, which we will wait to get a better trend by midday to make any necessary adjustments. Otherwise, we delayed any increase in cldnss for the region from QB prov til tngt. Orgnl Disc: A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the area as low pressure south of Nova Scotia slowly weakens and moves away. Based on sunny skies and H925 temperatures, expect highs in the low to mid 40s...and a few upper 40s readings cannot be ruled out. The ridge will slowly weaken today into tonight and a weakening cold front will enter the western part of the state late tonight. Increasing high clouds ahead of the front will enter the forecast area this evening. These clouds will dissipate later in the evening, but a brief period of stratocumulus will arrive with the front later in the night. These clouds and warm advection...balanced against light winds and some clearing makes tonight`s low temperature forecast somewhat tricky. Will go on the lower side of guidance with upper teens to lower 20s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will cross the region Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers north and mostly/partly cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Low pressure will move east across the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with a chance of snow showers. The low will intensify while exiting across the maritimes later Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure will begin building toward the region. The pressure gradient between the intensifying low and building high pressure will support gusty northwest winds across the region Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. These winds will transport much colder air across the forecast area. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Wednesday, with partly sunny skies along with a chance of early snow showers Downeast. High pressure begins to build across the region Wednesday night with decreasing clouds north and partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Tuesday with below normal level temperatures Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure crosses the region Thursday, then moves east Friday while a warm front crosses the the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the forecast area Thursday. Cloud cover increases across the region Friday along with a chance of snow showers north, with a slight chance of snow/rain showers across the remainder of the region. A cold front will cross the region Friday night into Saturday though the exact timing of the front is still uncertain. Snow/rain showers will accompany the front along with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure will then build across the region Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be at below normal levels Thursday and Sunday, with near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through the period with a slight chance of brief MVFR cigs late tonight for CAR and FVE. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Tuesday, with VFR conditions Bangor and Downeast. MVFR/IFR conditions are then possible across the entire region Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with occasional MVFR conditions later Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds will occur Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. Occasional MVFR conditions could persist across the north and mountains Wednesday night. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Extended the SCA through this evening as seas will be slow to decrease with the offshore storm. Longer period south swell up to 7-10 ft will continue much of the day. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday into early Wednesday. Gale conditions are then possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Visibilities could be locally reduced in any snow showers later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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