Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130832 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 332 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slide well south of the region today into tonight. High pressure will push down from the north Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak upper low moves across.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure currently over the region will weaken and move to the east today. Low pressure will develop over the Atlantic south of New England and move to the northeast later today and tonight. This system will produce clouds and some light rain or the southern portion of the region later today while the north remains partly sunny. Later tonight strong high pressure will build down from the north. This high will then crest over the region Tuesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Tue wl feature high pressure building ovr the region and pcldy skies. Progressive upr s/wv currently located ovr the Prairie Provinces wl zip twd CWA Tue aftn and bring an increase in cld cvr drg the aftn. Highs wl be in the m/u 30s acrs the north and arnd 40 for Downeast zones, just slightly blo normal. H5 low wl be mvg thru the area Tue night with lgt precip possible acrs far sern zones and ovr the waters aft midnight Tue night. Precip wl be extremely lgt and depending on how progressive low is may not see anything at all. Temps on Wed mrng wl rmn blo normal with near calm winds and gradually clrg skies. Brief s/wv ridging wl mv in for Wed ahead of next wx-maker for the middle of the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Next system to bring pcpn to the area late Wed night and Thu is currently spinning offshore the Pacific NW/BC. Weak isentropic lift expected aft 06z Thur with brief shot of snow showers mainly north of the coast. Warm air wl be drawn in on srly flow and accumulating snow wl lkly only be 1-2 brief hrs acrs interior Downeast bfr quickly bcmg rain showers. Areas to the north of Katahdin stand the best chc of seeing a quick inch or two of snow Thur morning bfr mixing with and/or changing to showers. Fropa occurs Thur evng with wrap-arnd snow showers expected into Fri mrng. Gusty nw winds can be expected in its wake of Friday with highs expected to run some 10 degrees blo normal with H9 temps appchg -10C acrs the St. John Vly. High pressure briefly builds in late in the week and into the early part of the weekend. Med range guidance conts to disagree on next significant system building to our west and eventually impacting the area. GFS conts to indicate secondary sfc low dvlpng along the coast Sat evng while EC and CMC much slower with system with deeper parent sfc low north of the cntrl Great Lks thru 00z Sun. EC ensemble guidance shows majority of members rmng back to the west thru this time. GFS ensemble mean also rmns slightly back to the west with a fairly even split of ensemble members being further east vs back to the west. Confidence in one soln vs another is very low but plan to lean slightly closer to 00z EC as GFS just seems too fast with progress of system. Still plenty of time to sort out the details with regard to ptype.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are possible KBGR and KBHB later today, otherwise expect VFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected thru Wed evng before lowering to MVFR and potential IFR in mixed precipitation Thur morning. Expect a rain/snow mix, mainly for northern terminals. MVFR cigs possible thru the day Friday in stratocu.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds. For waves: Currently long period southeasterly swell is the primary wave system and expect this group to remain the main wave group through today. Later tonight as winds increase, northeasterly wind waves will become the primary wave group. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave grids. SHORT TERM: Marginal SCA conditions as northeast winds increase with low pressure tracking south of the waters Tue morning. A cold front crosses the waters late Thu night with potential for gale force winds briefly Fri morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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