Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151437 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1037 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the western Great Lakes region today, but weaken and dissipate before it reaches Maine. A cold front will begin to cross the region then stall later Sunday into Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1015 AM Update: Most of the shwrs and isold tstms ovr Downeast areas have moved E into NB prov ovr the last couple of hrs, with and area of shwrs ovr the Cntrl ME highlands area. Latest meso model guidance now points to some cnvctn firing ovr NW ptns of the FA this aftn where the there will be more sunshine and warmer hi temps to destabilize the lower to mid troposphere more so than other ptns of the Rgn where low cldnss will keep temps a little cooler. Subsequently, we bumped up PoPs ovr the NW and added more QPF for the 18-00z tm frame tdy with a little more QPF in the 00-06z tm frame ovr the N and Cntrl as shwrs wind down. Given only max aftn SBCAPEs of 600-1000J/kg fcstd, we held off on any enhanced tstm wording for the tm being, but will monitor latest radar trends going into the aftn. Otherwise, associated adjustments were made to fcst hrly cld cvr across the Rgn into this aftn based on latest sat imagery and later fcst shwrs/tstms. Fcst hrly temps/dwpts were also adjusted into the aftn hrs with only very modest chgs to fcst hi temps. Orgnl Disc: The synoptic situation is a bit deceptive for today. Although a cold upper trough will cross the area, conditions at the surface will be symptomatic of a warm front with a cool and dry air mass being overrun by a warmer and more humid air mass from the south. Cloud ceilings will lower this morning with some shower activity...mostly south of the Moosehead Lake and Katahdin regions. There is some elevated instability above the frontal inversion as evidenced by thunderstorm activity currently in western Maine. As a result, will carry isolated thunderstorms in the southern half of the forecast area today. it will remain cloudy through the day and limit highs to the upper 60s to lower 70s. The exceptions will be the Saint John Valley where some sun is possible and the warmest afternoon temperatures will be found. Expect mid to upper 70s there. In contrast, the onshore flow along the coast will keep highs in the low to mid 60s. By evening, clouds will start to diminish. However, the presence of a more humid air mass with dew points around 60F means fog will develop tonight with the densest fog towards the coast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to around 60F except a bit cooler on the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move south Sunday then stall across the forecast area Sunday night. Expect a chance of showers across mostly northern areas Sunday morning. Will then have a chance of showers/thunderstorms across much of the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the evening, with a chance of showers along the Downeast coast. Some of the thunderstorms Sunday could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Showers/thunderstorms will then diminish later Sunday night leaving partly/mostly cloudy skies north with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Weakening low pressure will approach from the west Monday, drawing the stalled front back north in the form of a warm front. Expect a chance of showers Monday morning, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The remnants of the weakening surface low, along with an upper trof, will then approach from the west Monday night keeping a chance of showers across the forecast area. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Sunday/Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. The upper trof crosses the region Tuesday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. A cold front begins to cross the forecast area Wednesday then stalls into Thursday. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday, with a chance of showers Thursday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies Wednesday/Thursday. Uncertainty then exists regarding possible low pressure Friday which could keep a chance of showers across the region. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Tuesday/Wednesday with near normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Cigs will lower at all sites today with MVFR developing north of HUL and IFR cigs expected south of HUL. When these cigs dissipate later in the evening, fog will develop with LIFR vis. SHORT TERM: Variable conditions could occur with any showers/thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday evening. Generally VFR conditions are then expected Sunday night, though variable conditions could occur with fog along the Downeast coast. Showers/thunderstorms will then produce variable conditions across the region Monday into Wednesday. Occasional fog could also produce variable conditions along the Downeast coast at times Monday through Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Monday into Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog is expected to develop today and linger through tonight. Light winds and seas under 2 feet are expected. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible today. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday night. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Sunday into Monday night. Could also have a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon into the evening, then again Monday afternoon into Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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