Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 220739
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
339 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
A cold front will approach this morning and cross the region on
this afternoon and evening. Another secondary cold front with an
upper level low will approach from the northwest on Saturday and
cross the area Saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest radar ref does show shwrs with embedded thunder moving into
NW ME from Ern QB. Most meso models weaken this ln of shwrs as it
moves into NE ME aft daybreak. Aftwrds, we xpct other shwrs and
tstms to form by aftn once sfc temps reach cnvctv initiation.
It`s difficult to pin down what ptn of the FA will see the most
activity attm, with different meso models showing different
scenarios, but it seems likely that there could be multiple
clusters of tstms this aftn into erly eve. Max fcst SBCAPEs are
fcst to reach from 1500J/kg across the N to perhaps as high as
2250J/kg ovr the lower Penobscot vly by mid to late aftn with fcst
0-6km bulk shears xpctd to reach 30 to 40 kt, meaning that some
storms could produce strong gusty winds, with hail size being
somewhat lmtd by high fzls.
Tstm cvrg should dissipate to isold by late tngt with the loss of
day tm htg. For now, given decent fcst forward motion of tstms,
we did not go for hvy QPF for any ptn of the FA, but cannot rule
out lclzd hvy rnfl due in the event of training of tstms ovr
particular lctns. High temps tdy will be dependent on how much
sunshine ptns of our FA receive, with warm ovrngt lows again due
to warm moist air holding ovr the region.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, look for a continued threat of storms throughout the
area. Slightly cooler air moves in aloft from the northwest, but
it will still be fairly warm at lower levels of the atmosphere
(highs upper 70s to mid 80s) along with decent moisture. An upper
level trough passing through will help ignite the storms. Any
storms could contain small hail.
Quieting down Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure moves in
as well as slightly drier air. Can`t rule out a few showers over
far Eastern Maine Sunday, but generally Sunday is looking dry with
highs still warm with upper 70s to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures remaining above average Monday night through Friday.
Shot at showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday with the
passage of a weak upper level trough. Then dry Wednesday with
showers and storm chances returning possibly Thursday and more
likely Friday. Models in decent agreement in the extended.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR across the TAF sites thru this eve with
ocnly MVFR vsbys with heavier shwrs and brief IFR vsbys with tstms
this aftn into early eve. MVFR and brief IFR vsbys are also
possible late tngt with patchy fog.
SHORT TERM: Generally VFR Saturday through Monday. Locally worse
conditions possible Saturday however due to showers and storms.
Next shot at widespread MVFR/IFR comes with a system Monday night.
NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for marginal haz seas ovr our
outer MZ waters for tngt, but we needed to slow down the rate of
rise of wv hts from late last ngt thru this morn based on latest
buoy obs. Wv hts should lower to below 5 ft ovr the outer waters
by 8 am Sat. Cannot rule out marine ST and patchy fog especially
tngt due to relatively moist trop air flowing NE ovr the cold Gulf
of ME waters.
SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft levels Saturday to
Monday. Seas 2 to 4 feet Saturday through Monday with winds around
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening
to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.