Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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115 FXUS61 KCAR 090541 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1241 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1210 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS UPDATE INCLUDE MINOR CHGS TO 6 HRLY SNFL AND STM TOTAL SNFL AND TO PROVIDE BETTER ENDING TMG OF WNTR WX ADVS FROM S TO N...RANGING FROM 11 AM ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO 3 PM FOR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND THE ORGNL 7 PM ENDING FOR NRN ZONES...MORE IN LN WHEN POPS DROP TO CHC WHEN STEADY SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS...CLD CVR AND HRLY/LOW TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT. WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPS...WE RAISED THEM A FEW DEG...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEG DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FROM SNFL. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS TERM. THE MAIN THING IN QUESTION IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TOUGH FORECAST COMING UP. LATEST 20Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD INTENSE SFC LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA BOMBING OUT AND FILLING. REGIONAL RADAR, INCLUDING THE LATEST MRMS SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM WERE DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT PER THE LATEST RADAR ALONG W/THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN GEM. 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED 80-100 KT JET DIVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER TROF TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS E. THE TIMING FOR SNOW FURTHER N HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK AS WELL AS CUTTING BACK ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY AN INCH OR TWO. THE GUSTY NNE WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INTENSE LOW PULLS AWAY. LLVL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION W/A DEVELOPING UPPER FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING W/SOME BRIEF HEAVY BANDS. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE MT. KATAHDIN REGIONAL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP FORECAST TO BE 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGHER SNOW RATIOS(16-19:1) WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLUFFY SNOW. SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL FOR A TIME. OVERALL ATTM, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST TOTALS(4-8 INCHES) ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS SUCH AS PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND MT. KATAHDIN. FURTHER N ACROSS HOULTON ON UP THROUGH CARIBOU INTO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. SNOW WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT A NNE WIND ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY HAS HISTORY OF LEADING TO SOME UPSLOPE AND FORECAST QPF OF AROUND 0.25", DECIDED TO ADD THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN SOMERSET INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY W/SNOW FORECAST OF UP TO 4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL W/20S EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. ONE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL LOW SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE SMALL LOW ON THURSDAY MAY TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY GIVING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SMALL LOW WHISKING OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST BREEZE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CURRENTLY DIFFER WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW IN MONDAY AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IT IN LATE TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH HUL/PQI/CAR BECOMING MVFR AFTER 03Z WITH FVE HOLDING ONTO VFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 08Z. IFR SNOW EXPECTED AT HUL AT 03Z, PQI AT 05Z, CAR AT 06Z AND FVE AT 09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CAR, PQI AND HUL BY 22Z TUE. SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR IN SN AND BLSN THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH VARIABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COAST IN A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY IN LIGHT SNOW IF IT TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HV ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS AT 03Z AND EXTENDED FOR COASTAL WATERS THRU 05Z AS WINDS RMN BTWN 35-40KTS. HV ISSUED SCA FOR INTRACOASTAL WATERS THRU 18Z TUESDAY AND AS GALE WARNING EXPIRES FOR RMNG ZONES WL NEED TO ISSUE SCA THRU THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP BACK TO 8-10 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SWELL GENERATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY W/PERIODS OF 10-13 SECONDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LATE THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON FRIDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1-1.5 FT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS AROUND 11 PM AND AROUND 11 AM ON TUESDAY. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURGE AND THE WAVES OF 10-13 FT COULD LEAD TO SOME SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MORE SO ON TUESDAY. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND DECIDED TO GO W/A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002- 004>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001- 003. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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