Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 080526 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to our south tonight and Friday then move east Friday night. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday and track toward Nova Scotia Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update 12:20 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. Previous discussion... An upper trof will continue to dig across the the upper great lakes region through Friday. This will keep a southwest flow aloft across the region through Friday. A weak upper level disturbance will cross the region tonight. Expect mainly cloudy skies and scattered flurries across the region this evening. Mainly cloudy skies will persist across the region overnight with partial clearing expected across central and down east by daybreak. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 20s. Friday will continue mainly cloudy across the north and partly sunny down east as southwest flow aloft continues across the region. High temperatures on Friday will be close to seasonal for this time of year, with lower 30s north and mid to upper 30s down east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A corridor of dry air and high pressure will be across the area Friday night bringing clear to partly cloudy conditions. Meanwhile, we will be watching a shortwave tracking east along the Gulf of Mexico coast as another shortwave dives south through the Great Lakes. The Gulf shortwave will begin to develop low pressure off the Southeast Coast Saturday morning as the lakes shortwave digs in. Latest guidance is now showing that the lakes shortwave will be able to begin phasing in with the east coast low and lift it far enough north to bring a light to moderate snowfall to much of our area beginning around midday Saturday Downeast and reaching the north Saturday evening. Light to occasionally moderate snow will continue Saturday night and through much of the day on Sunday as the surface low tracks up across Nova Scotia. The surface low will be well to our east lifting through the Maritimes on Sunday but a sharp shortwave trough sliding into our area from the Lakes will continue to support occasional light snowfall through much of the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any lingering light snow will taper off to flurries Sunday night as low pressure moves away and a weak high builds in. A weak shortwave may bring some flurries early Monday. High pressure will then bring dry weather Monday afternoon into Monday night. Our focus then turns to a rather vigorous shortwave diving through the Great Lakes Monday night and developing low pressure to our southwest on Tuesday. The low will likely spread snow into our area Tuesday. This looks like a very fast moving storm and a period of moderate snow across the area late Tuesday into early Tuesday evening may quickly end as a surge of dry air sweeping round the bottom of the trough lifts into our area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Energy rounding the bottom of the trough may then develop a secondary low to our east on Wednesday which could bring another round of snow to parts of the area if it tracks close enough as the low lifts into the Maritimes. Very cold air should follow this low and by late next week it will likely feel very wintry across our area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ceilings expected across the region tonight through Friday. Can`t rule out a few short periods with high end MVFR ceilings late tonight into Friday, especially across far northern and western areas such as Frenchville and Greenville. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday night. Conditions will begin VFR on Saturday, but lower to MVFR then IFR in snow Downeast midday Saturday. Conditions will drop to IFR across the north in snow Saturday evening. IFR conditions in snow and low clouds are expected Saturday night with IFR to MVFR conditions in occasional light snow expected on Sunday. MVFR conditions are expected Sunday night into early Monday with a return to VFR conditions expected across the area Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight for the outer most coastal waters for wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet. Wind/seas should diminish below advisory levels on Friday. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed late Saturday into Saturday night for northeast winds gusting up to 30 kt. Winds should drop below SCA late Saturday night into Sunday morning but may increase to SCA in gusty westerly winds Sunday into early Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone

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