Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191930 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly press into our very humid air mass today. The front will stall across the region tonight as a weather disturbance tracks north along the front. The cold front will continue east of the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Numerous showers and storms. Main concern evolving into flash flooding, especially from Central Highlands northeast to Central Aroostook where training cells under our very tropical airmass are a real danger. Secondary threat are damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Showers and storms continuing into this evening, then activity slowly dieing off overnight. However, upper level shortwave still to our west Tuesday and with front stalled over the area, expect another round of showers and storms. Not quite the severe and flash flood threat as Monday, and highest threat appears to be a bit southeast of today`s threat. Still, enough of a concern that extended flash flood watch into Tuesday and added mention of small hail. Hail threat may end up being as large as today`s threat since freezing levels will be lower.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Any showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon will quickly end by early Tuesday evening as an upper disturbances exits to the east. Expect partly to mainly cloudy skies across the north and partly cloudy down east. Noticeably drier air will then begin to filter into the region behind a weak boundary Tuesday night, as dew points fall into the low to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. With lows expected to be in the in the mid to upper 50s, it will make for a much more comfortable sleeping night than the past few. Wednesday will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially north and central areas, as another upper disturbance crosses the region. Even cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind an exiting cold front later Wednesday night along with partial clearing expected. Lows by Thursday morning are expected to range from the low 50s north and mid to upper 50s downeast. Thursday is shaping up as a nice day, as high pressure builds toward the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s north and mid to upper 70s down east, which is close to normal for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Thursday night will see increasing clouds ahead of the next frontal system approaching from the west. This system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms on Friday into Friday evening. Another round of showers is expected on Saturday followed by improving weather Sunday and Monday. Temperatures through the period will be close to normal for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally VFR this afternoon except IFR persisting along the coast and local IFR in scattered to numerous storms. Ceilings dropping to IFR most places tonight, then improving to VFR most places late Tuesday. SHORT TERM: VFR will prevail Tuesday night through Thursday night. The exception will be in any showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday when brief MVFR/IFR can be expected. MVFR will be possible Friday in showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR expected Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Small craft conditions ahead of the slow-moving cold front persisting into Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Extended the small craft advisory through Tuesday night, mainly for seas. It may need to be extended into Wednesday with subsequent forecast issuance`s, as seas are likely to remain up through mid week.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MEZ001>006-010- 011-015-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Foisy/Duda Marine...Foisy/Duda

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