Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200227 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1027 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend. The next weather system will bring rain to the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1025 PM Update... Clouds have moved out of the region for the most part w/some scattered clouds down across the downeast region. Temps have dropped off w/the clearing as colder air is moving into the region from Canada. Temps across the far nw areas already down in the upper 30s such as Clayton Lake down to 38F as winds have dropped off below 6 mph. IR and WV satl imagery indicate an upper trof to swing across the region overnight. This feature is picked up well by the latest run of the RAP which shows winds picking up again to around 10 mph overnight. This should allow for the blyr to stay mixed which should keep most of the frost at bay. There is a risk that some low lying areas could see some patchy frost by early Saturday morning as temps hit lower 30s in those areas. Therefore, kept some patchy frost in across far n and w. Otherwise, temps in the mid/upper 30s for the rest of northern areas w/around 40 central and downeast areas. Previous Discussion... 1028mb sfc high sitting south of James Bay wl begin to build into the CWA thru the end of the near term pd. Nw winds wl start to lighten by late aftn Sat with temps rebounding into the m60s for Downeast and u50s acrs the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to be building in from the northwest at the beginning of this period. The high will move across the state and eventually to the south of New England by Sunday Evening. Clouds will increase late Sunday with rain moving into western areas Sunday Night. Rain will continue to spread northeastward Monday. Have used a blend of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF for populating grids. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure is expected to develop over Southern New England Monday Evening. The low will move northeast through the Gulf of Maine Tuesday resulting in rain across the region. A cold front will move across the State Tuesday. High pressure will build to the east of New England Wednesday. Low pressure will then approach from the southwest Wednesday Night and pass to the west of New England Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs expected for the next 2-4 hours at FVE, CAR and PQI before becoming VFR. VFR at all other terminals next 24 hours. NW winds will remain gusty for most terminals through tomorrow afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Sunday. VFR/MVFR conditions expected Monday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to near 25kts this evening as a cold front crosses the water. This will likely be just below SCA levels, thus the advisory has been cancelled. Seas will remain below 5 feet through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to populate wind grids Sunday and Monday. Will lower model wind speed from NAM 10 percent due to cold sea surface temperature making boundary layer Stable. Will transition to the Super Blend winds late Monday. For Waves: For Sunday expect northerly wind wave for primary wave group and a secondary southerly swell system subsiding during the day. A southerly wind wave is expected Monday into Tuesday, then a southerly fetch will build from the Gulf of Maine southward on Wednesday in response to deepening low pressure over the northeastern U.S. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for wave grids. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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