Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171111 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 611 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...LATEST NORTHEAST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD DOWNEAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING AND REACH NORTHERN MOST MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS ALL THE AREA INITIALLY BUT THEN CHANGE TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWNEAST WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. ALSO COULDNT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST BUT THINK ANY FREEZING PRECIPITAION WILL BE SHORT LIVED HERE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING HERE EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS QUICK TO WARM AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THIS EVENING ALL THE WAY UP TO THE CARIBOU AREA BUT A WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RANGE OF 2 T0 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD AIR MASS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE THERE WILL BE A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER. IT WILL BE P/SUNNY AND MAINLY DRY DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A GUSTY WIND THAT WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE WILL BE SOME OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW THURSDAY THAT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE CHANCE FOR A ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES TAKE THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WITH A WARMER/WET SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM...VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TUE AND WED WITH MOSTLY VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL IN THE NORTH TUE NIGHT THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PRECIPITATION AND PATCHY FOG. SHORT TERM...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KGYX HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH. && .CLIMATE... THROUGH NOVEMBER 16TH IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST START TO NOVEMBER AT BANGOR AND CARIBOU SINCE 2004. IT HAS BEEN THE SNOWIEST START TO THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AT BANGOR SINCE 1968...AND AT CARIBOU SINCE 1963. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-010. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB CLIMATE...CB

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