Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140510 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1210 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to our east tonight and Wednesday. A small area of low pressure will track to our north on Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night into Friday and cross the area Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update 12:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Orgnl Disc: The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge over the area at the start of the period will build east of the area tonight. An upper level trough will move through northern Maine around midnight bringing a slight chance for a few flurries before morning. Mostly sunny tomorrow with temperatures recovering into the 30s and into the lower 40s on the coast. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC Guidance for QPF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure to our southeast combined with a frontal boundary north of the area will maintain a southwesterly flow of mild air Wednesday night. Lows will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the week as a small low tracks across Quebec pulling even milder air north across the region. Some rain and snow showers will be possible across the north. Otherwise, Thursday will be dry most of the day. The low will continue across the north Thursday night bringing another very mild night with lows over 20 degrees above normal. Friday will be mild as the low to our north exits into the northern Maritimes. The Low will pull a strong cold front toward the area which will reach the northwest late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong cold front will push across the region Friday evening possibly with some snow squalls across the north. Strong gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures will follow the frontal passage overnight Friday night. Saturday will then be sunny, bright and cold with lows from the teens north to 20s Downeast. Saturday night will be dry and seasonably cold as high pressure slides to our south. A weak upper level shortwave pushing across the area Sunday will bring clouds and some spotty snow showers. High pressure will quickly follow Sunday night. This high, like the ones before it, will slide offshore setting up a return flow of southerly winds on Monday bringing a return of milder air. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Higher pressure will dominate the conditions through the period. An upper level trough will move through Northern Maine around midnight bringing a slight chance for a few flurries, however ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain VFR. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Conditions may drop to MVFR across the north Thursday afternoon then be MVFR in variable mid and low clouds Thursday night into Friday. Ceilings may drop to IFR over the north Friday into early Friday evening in lower clouds and snow showers. VFR conditions should return later Friday night. However, northwest winds will be strong and gusty with cold advection likely producing some turbulance. VFR conditions in sunshine are likely on Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to around 1 am Thursday morning. Winds and seas will begin to build this evening to Small Craft Advisory criteria by around midnight. SHORT TERM: A SCA will continue into early Thursday evening. Winds should then drop below SCA later Thursday night through Friday morning. A SCA will likely be needed later Friday into Friday night as a strong cold front moves through. Winds may reach gale for a period of time Friday evening in strong gusty northwesterly winds with the passage of the cold front. Winds should then drop below SCA on Saturday as high pressure builds over. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone

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