Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230130 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 930 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold arctic air will continue to be brought in on north winds tonight. High pressure builds across the region later Thursday with another cold front moving through Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 9:30 PM Update...The last of the snow is rapidly winding down in Washington County, and have removed the last of the winter weather advisories. Although it remains windy, the wind is no longer reaching advisory criteria, and have cancelled the wind advisories with this update. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to continue, and as a very cold air mass pours into the region wind chills of 10 to 25 below are expected after midnight into early Thursday morning. The lowest wind chills of 20 to 25 below are expected across far northern Maine and have issued a wind chill advisory from 1 am until 8 am Thursday for the far northern zones. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with only very minor updates based mainly on the latest observations, radar, and near term models. Previous discussion... 1002mb sfc low sitting ovr the Bay of Fundy as of 19z with arctic front well south of the waters. Cold air and strong winds continue to pour into CWA this aftn with numerous reports of whiteout conds, tho minimal snow accumulation as expected. Wl retain winter weather advisory into this afternoon/evng and emphasize blowing snow and whiteouts in open areas. Skies wl clr tonight and with caa occurring wl see nrn zones drop to nr zero for mins. Only caveat to dropping further wl be well-mixed blyr as nw winds rmn gusty btwn 20-30kts thru mrng. This wl result in wind chill values dropping to nr -20F across nw Aroostook and may need to issue wind chill advisory after existing headlines expire. Will highlight wind chill temps in winter wx advisory as a heads-up for the North Woods. Expect a fairly sunny day tomorrow but nw winds wl rmn gusty as pressure gradient rmns tight until aftn with ridge axis building in twd the end of the near term pd. Maxes wl rmn much blo normal on Thur as arctic air filters in on nrly flow, tho H9 temps wl warm a few degrees ovr tda. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will drift across New England Thursday night and to the east of the region on Friday. Low pressure will move eastward well to our north, dragging its attendant cold front across the Northeast CONUS in its wake. MOisture lifting northward out ahead of the front will bring a quick shot of precipitation to the region Friday afternoon and evening. Northern and central areas will remain cold enough for mostly snow, while Downeast should go over to a rain/snow mix or just plain rain by late afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation will fall during the late afternoon and evening hours, then the front will move through around midnight, quickly shunting the precipitation to the east. Any rain will change back over to snow before the precipitation comes to an end. Noted that some of the model guidance is hinting at some light freezing rain mixing in across portions of the Central Highlands and interior Downeast. Current indications are that if this were to occur, it would be very brief and happen as precipitation is coming to an end, so have opted to leave out of the forecast at this time. Snow amounts will be minimal with most locations seeing an inch or less. Saturday will be dry under decreasing clouds. In spite of the frontal passage, Saturday`s temperatures will be at or above Friday`s highs owing to increasing sun and downsloping winds. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large high pressure system building down from Canada will bring a cold, clear and starlit night Saturday night. Sunday will begin sunny before moisture ahead of a large storm system begins lifting into the area. Clouds may increase in the Downeast region by late Sunday while the north remains mostly sunny. Our attention then turns to a couple storm systems early next week pushing out ahead of a large trough approaching from the Midwest. The first low trekking across the area on Monday will bring a chance of some snow with the best chance Downeast where the snow may mix with some rain. A break is possible Monday night before another large storm approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday. If the GFS is right, the mid-week storm may involve a northern branch shortwave phasing in with a southern branch shortwave to develop a potentially strong coastal low by Wednesday morning. The ECMWF currently has the mid-week storm developing a bit later, to our southeast, which would favor lighter snow but still a potentially windy day as the storm winds up and tracks south of the Maritimes. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected overnight and Thu, but with a strong NW wind persisting until mid-late afternoon Thu. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Friday. Then ceilings will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR by 21z as rain and snow spread across the region. IFR conditions are expected 21z Friday through 06z Saturday, then precipitation will come to an end after a cold frontal passage. Clouds will lift to VFR by 12-15z Saturday, with skies clearing by late afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale force winds expected into the morning hours in the wake of an arctic front that crossed the waters this afternoon. Expect SCA conditions through the day tomorrow. Moderate freezing spray expected through late Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: Northwest winds will be gusting 25-30 kt early Thursday night but they will subside overnight as high pressure builds across the waters. However, winds and seas will both increase during the day Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft conditions are expected by early Friday afternoon, and these will persist through much of Friday night. Winds will decrease early Saturday morning with the return of high pressure, but seas will hang above 5 ft through the day Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ001>003. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Farrar/Hastings Marine...CB/Farrar/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.