Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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835 FXUS61 KCAR 031123 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 623 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND PASS NORTH OF MAINE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW A FEW RETURNS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AND KMLT IS REPORTING 2SM -SN ATTM. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS DOWNEAST...MID 30S CENTRAL AREAS...AND AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AREAS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS (ZONE31) IN THE ADVISORY AREA AS WELL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A 925MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 70 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DOWNEAST MAINE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTER ISLANDS AND A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE (ZONE 16 AND 17) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY RISE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT GET MIXED DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THU MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRI. MOISTURE RIDING UP ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL OFFSHORE MAY BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE MAINLAND COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE DAY THU WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD AND ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY WITH A COUPLE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN THE FORM OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE THU NIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BANGOR AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO HINTS OF ANY SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR AT MOST A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. ATTENTION TURNS TO A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW LIFTING NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. WHERE THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET. IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT TAKING A TRACK UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND PRODUCING A MAJOR SNOW STORM. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING A SPLIT FLOW AND THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST 00Z GFS NOW TAKES THE LOW MONDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A SECOND SYSTEM THAT PHASES AND WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO TAKE THE FIRST LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG LOW TRACKING TO NEAR EASTPORT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TIME WILL TELL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL WITH THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR A SNOWSTORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WHAT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY IS THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM FOR MONDAY REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING. LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MOSTLY VFR FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH END MVFR STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT. SHORT TERM: THE WIND WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AND THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. IT IS LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AS THEY WILL LIKELY NOT SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT UNTIL SOMETIME THU NIGHT, AND EVEN THEN MAY STILL BE AROUND 5 FT INTO THE DAY FRI. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BEYOND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME ICE BREAKUP OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST TOTALS TOWARD THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, WE DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS FROM FLOODING, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS. && .CLIMATE... THE JANUARY 2016 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE CHECK THE NEWS STORIES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR OR PWMCLMCAR OR CXUS51 KCAR FOR MORE DETAILS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003>006-010-031. WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ016-017. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB HYDROLOGY...DUDA CLIMATE...CB

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