Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 290848
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
448 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
TODAY WITH COLDER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE
BOTH SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE
MOSG25. BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE... THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND THE SUPER BLEND FOR THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRUE AUTUMN-LIKE WX IN STORE FOR THIS TERM W/CLOUDS HANGING ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR TUESDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN OVERRUNNING SETUP.
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 950-800MBS W/A DRY WEDGE FROM
825-500MBS. ESE WIND IN BLYR W/SSW ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO
SOME DRIZZLE. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST AND LOCATED ACROSS THE AND
ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREAS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AS WELL.
THEREFORE, DECIDED TO STAY W/CHANCE POPS FOR THE SHOWERS. DRYING
IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 850 MBS. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL
A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 850MBS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A NNE FLOW. SO, CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
COULD BE AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAN BE TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT W/HIGH PRES
WEDGING DOWN FROM CANADA AND NNE FLOW IN PLACE. PLUS, THERE IS A
LOW PRES SYSTEM BE PASSING SLOWLY E OVER THE OPEN ATLC.

THIS WILL MEAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL W/READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE MID 50S.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING W/TEMPERATURES WARMING A
BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NEAR NORMALS READINGS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE ONLY CAVEAT SEEN ATTM IS ON THURSDAY AS SOME CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS DUE A NNE FLOW IN LLVLS AND LOW
PRES PASSING OF CAPE COD. FOR NOW, STAYED W/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER IF NEEDED.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. ATTM, CARRIED 30-40%
POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL BE
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY EVENING AND HANG ON
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL TO KBHB WHILE MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP GENERATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
DURING LAST 24 HOURS IS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM
(SOUTHEAST 1-2 FEET/10 SECONDS) ALSO PRESENT BASED ON BUOY DATA
AND MODEL FORECAST. EXPECT NORTHEAST WAVE GROUP TO QUICKLY TAKE
OVER AS PRIMARY WAVE GROUP 5-8 FEET/6-7 SECONDS) THIS EVENING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL INITIALIZE WAVE
GRIDS WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON NAM12 SINCE CONCEPTUAL
MODEL FAVORS STRONGER NAM WINDS. NWPS HIGHER WAVE MODEL RESOLUTION
WILL BETTER HANDLE WAVE/TIDAL CURRENT INTERACTION... ESPECIALLY
WITH SHORTER WAVER PERIODS DUE TO SHORTER LENGTH/DURATION FETCH.
WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 1800Z.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM. NNE WINDS OF 15
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY W/SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE ESE BY FRIDAY W/SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT









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