Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 021747
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1247 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface boundary will cross the area tonight bringing snow
showers to central areas. An upper level disturbance will cross
the region Saturday with high pressure building in early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
An upper level trof will continue to move east toward the region
this afternoon. This will result in the possibility of a few snow
showers, mainly across northern areas. Little if any accumulation
is expected through the afternoon. Have only made minor tweaks to
ongoing forecast based on current conditions.

Prev discussion blo...
Lopres which brought the foot+ of snow to nrn Maine has pushed
into the Maritimes with nw flow rmng in its wake. Secondary low
sitting ovr sw Quebec as of 07z with parent UL low in same general
location. With system being vertically stacked just a slow drift
to the east is expected tda, meaning contd nw flow, cldy skies
acrs the nw along with flurries. S/wv ridging wl briefly build in
this aftn for most of the CWA, outside of the far NW. Hv included
light snow showers in upslope areas acrs this region with little
expected elsewhere.

As upr low begins to open up and eject twd the CWA tonight,
guidance is suggesting snow streamers btwn 00z and 09z. Thus hv
bumped pops up to hichc acrs cntrl areas as convergent area sets
up fm the Allagash area down twd Houlton. Snow accums on the order
of an inch or two cannot be ruled out acrs cntrl areas tonight.

Temps wl be nr normal once again acrs the north and slightly abv
normal in Downeast this aftn. Given extensive cld cvr tonight,
temps wl be cldr than this mrng but still well abv normal for this
time of yr.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rather benign weather is expected for the weekend. A weak upper
shortwave will bring snow showers to the region Saturday afternoon
and evening, mainly over the higher terrain of the North Woods.
Minor snow accumulations of less than an inch are possible. The
upper wave exits by early Sunday morning, making way for high
pressure and a cold Canadian airmass. After Saturday`s daytime
highs around 30 in the north and in the mid and upper 30s
Downeast, Saturday night will be on the chilly side as
temperatures dip into the teens to lower 20s night. While most
locations will see increasing sunshine on Sunday, highs will only
top out in the lower/mid 20s north and the lower 30s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry but cold weather is expected through much of next week as
high pressure slowly builds across New England. Temperatures will
run 5 to 10 degrees below normal through Wednesday; Sunday night
and Monday night will be quite chilly with lows only in the single
digits across much of northern Aroostook County. The high will
finally move to our east Wednesday, allowing temps to return to
normal as the region will be under southwest flow. The next chance
of precipitation arrives sometime thereafter; the GFS and ECMWF
differ by 12-24 hours on the start time for the next event.
However, at this time it looks like it could be another mixed
precipitation event; the latest GFS takes the low to our north and
brings rain all the way into the Crown of Maine. The 01/12z ECMWF
meanwhile is the slower and colder of the models, keeping us dry
until later Thursday and keeping at best a wintry mix over the
north. Have stayed close to a model blend given these differences.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Ocnl MVFR at northern terminals this mrng. Off and on
MVFR cigs will be present this afternoon at all but BHB where VFR
restrictions will prevail. Terminals north of HUL will likely see
MVFR snow showers overnight.

MVFR and ocnl IFR conditions expected at FVE, CAR and
PQI through 12z this morning. After this time, expect these
terminals will settle out at MVFR with cigs btwn 015-025 the
majority of the day in nw flow. -SHSN will occur after 00z as
another weak disturbance moves through. HUL will likely be VFR
through 00z tonight before MVFR -shsn moves in for the nighttime
hours. BGR and BHB will likely be VFR next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM: The southern terminals are expected to see prevailing
VFR conditions through the period, though occasional MVFR ceilings
will be possible Saturday and Saturday night. The northern sites
will likely be MVFR 12z Saturday through 12z Sunday due to
ceilings. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected 16z Sat
through 04z Sun, and these may produce IFR conditions. High
pressure will allow ceilings to lift to VFR at the northern
terminals after 12z Sun and this will remain the pattern through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have dropped SCA for intracoastal zone this morning.
With seas still above 5ft through the afternoon and winds btwn
20-25 kts expected, will extend SCA for outer waters thru 21z
today. May see outer waters appch marginal advisory levels
Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: Marginal Small Craft conditions are possible Saturday
afternoon and night as winds remain around 20 kt in cold air
advection. High pressure will build over the waters Sunday,
allowing winds to subside somewhat. The high will keep quiet
conditions over the waters through the middle of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/Hastings
Marine...Duda/Farrar/Hastings



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