Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 282031
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
331 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM OUR DEPARTING STORM
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT, WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WHERE
SOME SPOTS MAY REACH 10 BELOW. THURSDAY WILL THEN BRING A
TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY BETWEEN STORMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING
OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S DOWNEAST TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.
TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
IF THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO THICK DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE COD.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START
FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW RATIOS COULD BE QUITE HIGH
ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW DURING FRIDAY EVENING. A
STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ENSURE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM THE CAPE COD AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAINE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LIKELY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH
FRIDAY`S SNOW RATIOS AND BANDING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING COULD CAUSE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL IN LATE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. IFR WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GALE
ON SATURDAY. A LIKELY SEQUENCE OF HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE A
GALE WATCH FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN ISSUING AN SCA
ON FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW


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