Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 190157
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE
THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT
A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR
OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE
00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST
HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR
ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY
BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH
STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE
COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED
AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED
EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE
COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH
THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE
ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR
LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM
HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND
CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON
TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING
ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER








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