Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240219
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1019 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WHILE A DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF
MAINE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 10
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL FEEL MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO NEW BRUNSWICK.  THE QPF FORECAST IS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  THE BREVITY
OF THIS WARM UP AND AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OLD MAN WINTER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FULL LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ON THE EASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE SNOW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF
MARCH WITH THE COLDEST DAY ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
IN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MAY HIT THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-9 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 MPH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI
MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI



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