Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 130653
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
153 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight through early Friday.
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
A cold front will cross the region overnight through early Friday,
with a stronger cold front approaching northwest areas late.
Isolated/scattered snow and rain showers are possible across
mostly the north and mountains through the remainder of the night.
Any snow accumulations will be less than an inch. Overnight low
temperatures will generally range through the 20s across northern
areas, to the lower 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with mid 30s
along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for
current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover
and rain/snow shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
For Friday...a secondary cold front will cross the area during
the day, with the true arctic air to follow. As such, temperatures
will fall through the day. Given this cold air advection,
streamers off the Saint Lawrence are a possibility, so have added
a slight chance of snow showers across the north. Otherwise,
expect partly to mostly sunny skies for much of the area. Highs
will likely occur near daybreak, ranging from the lower 20s in the
north and west to the lower 30s in Bangor and Downeast. These will
drop a good 10 degrees by sunset. Gusty west winds will make it
feel that much colder.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather is expected for the weekend as two areas of
high pressure move across the area. The first High will move from
Lake Huron to Cape Cod and then offshore between Fri night and Sat
eve, while the second High will nose into the CWA from the west
Sunday aftn. In between, the base of an upr trof and accompanying
weak sfc trof will slide across the state, and a few snow shwrs
are psbl, but POPS were kept fairly low. Sat will be quite chilly,
with highs ranging from 20 at the coast to single digits up north,
and wind chills could stay below zero all day up north. Some
moderation is expected Sun, with temps returning closer to
seasonal norms.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pres sliding across the CWA Mon followed by upr ridging Tue
will maintain the quiet pattern through the start of the long
term. However, that comes to an end as the next system approaches
for Tue night into Wed, though discrepancy still remains on the
exact strength and timing, with the ECMWF still being a bit faster
than the GFS.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions generally ranging from VFR to IFR,
with localized LIFR, will occur across the region overnight.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across mostly the north
and mountains Friday. Gusty west to northwest winds, with gusts up
to around 40 mph, are expected to develop across the region
Friday.

SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the weekend,
though lower CIGs are possible Sat night into early Sun AM,
especially up north. KBGR and KBHB more likely to remain VFR. VFR
conditions likely to continue thru Tuesday, with ocnl mid-high
bkn or ovc decks. Will need to monitor for psbl MVFR CIGs moving
in from west Tue PM.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
waters overnight. A Gale Warning remains in effect Friday.
Visibilities could be reduced in any isolated showers or patchy
fog overnight.

SHORT TERM: Offshore Winds will remain strong Fri night, but will
diminish Sat AM. Moderate freezing spray may be an issue Fri night
into early Sat AM, and will monitor for the need for an advisory.
Winds will shift to SW by Sat eve, then incr to 15 kt gusts to 20
kt Sat night. As a trough pushes off the coast, winds will shift
NW Sun AM, and incr somewhat, with gusts getting close to SCA
criteria again.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ050>052.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Hastings
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Norcross/Kredensor
Marine...Norcross/Kredensor



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