Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240505
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
DELAYED HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES A FEW HOURS MORE. ALL THAT IS AROUND
TONIGHT IS PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET, EXCEPT
JUST PLAIN DRIZZLE FOR DOWNEAST WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT AN
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
FREEZING PRECIPITATION PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON THE NAM (SINCE THIS APPEARS TO HANDLE COLD AIR DAMMING THE
BEST). EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN COASTAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
TIMING ON CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. WILL ALSO USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR
TEMPERATURE.. DEW POINT AND QPF WILL MANUAL EDIT EXISTING GRIDS
SINCE ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.  PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH QPF VALUES OF UP TO TWO INCHES
WILL FALL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.  WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH ALONG
THE COAST AS UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR PUSHES INLAND.  HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S ALONG THE COAST AND 45 TO 50 INLAND.  THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ICE BREAK UP.
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS ACROSS THE
CROWN OF MAINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE ON THURSDAY EVENING AND BRING AN
END TO THE RAINFALL.  IT WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
RISK OF A FLASH FREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE 12Z GFS AND EC DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON A
STORM NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE STORM FLAT AND
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE EC DEVELOPS A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING POCKETS OF MVFR/VFR IN THE
CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO VLIFR TO IFR LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HEAVY RAIN AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE RAIN
FALLS OVER A DEEP SNOW PACK.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS SINCE THIS
MODEL APPEARS TO HANDLE COLD AIR DAMMING THE BEST. WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY WHICH KEEPS WINDS
SPEEDS DOWN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOES TAKE OVER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO
POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SEAS INCREASING TO 11
FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES ON TOP A MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF MAINSTEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. HIGH TIDES
OCCUR AT APPROXIMATELY 1142 PM EST TONIGHT... 1158 AM WEDNESDAY...
0034 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING AND 1250 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR OVERTOPPING
WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE MARGINAL WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
WAVES HOWEVER WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FEET/9 SECONDS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY... SO MINOR OVERTOPPING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. STORM SURGE FOR THIS EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 55F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD HIGH OF 51F, SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS
48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FOREACTING A HIGH OF 48F
AT CARIBOU.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ003>006-010-031.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...OKULSKI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB


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