Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200707
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WHILE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH, THE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80, WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER. WHILE
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW WEAK REX-LIKE BLOCKING SETTING UP OVR FAR NRN NEW ENG...
QB PROV AND THE MARITIMES THU INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...A WEAK
UPPER LOW MOVG E OVR THE GULF OF ME UNDERCUTS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER
RIDGE OVR NRN/CNTRL QB THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SCT SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURG THIS TM PD MSLY OVR W CNTRL
AND W INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. DAYTIME HTG RESULTING IN SBCAPE UP
TO 500 J/KG WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHWRS. BY MID
TO LATE EVE THESE SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH AND LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF HTG. AFTWRDS...WITH A WEAK SFC PRES GRAD AND SOME
REMNANT LVL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVR THE REGION
LATE THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN.

ON FRI THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF ME WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
MOVE SE OF NOVA SCOTIA...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH REMNANT LLVL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLD AFTN SHWRS...MSLY OVR WRN MTNS. HI TEMPS THU LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE ABV NORMAL WITH OVRNGT LOWS THU NGT NEAR NORMAL. SFC HI
PRES RIDGING SSWRD FROM WRN LABRADOR WILL LIKELY BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL HI TEMPS UNDER PTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS FROM THE ENE FRI NGT SHOULD
MSLY PRECLUDE PATCHY FOG FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REX BLOCKING WILL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW S OF
NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY MOVES ESE INTO THE OPEN ATLC AND THE UPPER
RIDGE/HIGH BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF A LITTLE FURTHER S OVR CNTRL
QB. HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS UNDER MSLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH OVRNGT LOWS A LITTLE BLO AVG AS THE SFC HI
CROSSES THE REGION. HI TEMPS MON AND TUE WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES SWRD OVR THE FA...ALLOWING THE SFC HI
CONTS TO TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME AND A RETURN SW SFC WIND SETS
UP OVR THE FA. IN FACT...WE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE WITH HI TEMPS
SPCLY TUE IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS AS STRONG AS BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS INDICATE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HI TEMPS INTO THE 80S
ACROSS LOWER TRRN OF NRN/CNTRL ME. OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT AND MON NGT
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM DURING THIS TM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD...XCPT PERHAPS MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY
FOG LATE THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED WITH WV HTS IN THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE OVR THE OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZS. WENT WITH ABOUT 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST
WV HTS THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN







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