Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251143
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
TODAY. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MOSTLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WITH SHOWERS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY
CONDITIONS. THE SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.
HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40 INTO MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND
WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT AN EQUAL BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE
AND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET.
WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS INTO MONDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



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