Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 091820 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 117 PM...TRANSITIONED SCA TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL/500MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST- EAST CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AT 1415Z. BROAD REGION OF SATURATED SE-E FLOW IN 850MB TO 500MB LAYER NORTH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...AIDED BY DEEP SATURATION IN DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (-12C TO -18C) PER 12Z CARIBOU SOUNDING. MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 14Z SHOWING EXPECTED GRADUAL DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MAINE...GENERALLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM...FOR EXPECTED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS NRN AREAS AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1" OR SO FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR OBSERVED SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED THRU 815AM. BACK EDGE OF ANY REMAINING STEADY SNOW SHOULD REACH THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NNE AT 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14Z...WILL INCREASE SLOWLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTH WINDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...AND MID 20S NEAR KBGR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF SITES OVRNGT. SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS DOWN BELOW 20 KTS BUT SEAS STILL UP ABOVE 6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER ANZ050(44027). DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVES W/WINDS & SEAS BELOW SCA INTO WED. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. MARINE....SMALL SCARFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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