Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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165 FXUS61 KCAR 221038 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 638 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the weather for the weekend with below seasonal temperatures expected. Low pressure will approach the state on Monday with scattered showers expected before high pressure builds back in for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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635 am update... Secondary cdfnt has just about bisected CWA as of 10z. To the north of this bndry dwpts hv dropped into the u40s and l50s while south of the bndry dwpts rmn right arnd 60F. A few clds are skirting acrs far nern zone and expect these wl diminish in the next couple of hrs leaving a sunny day on tap for the entire area. Fog has dissipated on schedule in rvr vlys as drier air has mixed down. Ingested hrly t/td values into grids with this update with no chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... 1015mb surface high pressure is building thru srn Canada as of 06z. Initial cdfnt has pushed offshore with secondary cold front now moving into northern Maine. This front is accompanied by lower dewpoints with l/m 50s currently, mainly to the north of Katahdin. Further upstream in Quebec lwr 40 dwpts are common and wl be making headway into CWA tonight. Showers hv all but dissipated tonight as little frcg exists. Hv added in patchy fog for this mrng as some rvr vly fog is dvlpng acrs the north at this time per latest nighttime microphysics imagery. Expect that this wl not last too long as dry air continues to filter in fm Canada. Sunny skies are expected acrs most of the area tda, allowing for gusty nw winds on the order of 15-20 kts in the aftn. H8 temps progged to range fm +6C acrs the St. John Vly to +12C along the coast, yielding temps arnd 70F in the north to lwr 80s for Downeast in offshore flow. Not expecting much in the way of sensible wx ovrngt with hipres continuing to build in. Mins expected to be in the l40s under clr skies acrs the north tho wud not be surprised to see an upr 30 somewhere in the CWA by Sun mrng.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather is expected for the second half of the weekend as high pressure will remain the dominant feature. Clouds will increase through the day, especially in southern sections, as low pressure pushes eastward across the NY/PA region. Sunday`s highs will be in the lower to mid 70s in most spots, with interior downeast approaching 80. Sunday night will be mainly dry as well with lows in the 40s north and the 50s south. For Monday...the aforementioned low will continue its eastward trek. This will allow showers to spread into our area, starting late Sunday night/early Monday morning and continuing through the day. The bulk of the precipitation should occur south of a Houlton to Jackman line, though even the Crown could see a few showers. Highs will be cooler than the previous day, mainly in the mid 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period looks fairly unsettled, though there are model differences, as usual. The discrepancies start early, with the GFS and ECMWF disagreeing on the handling of the upper trough that will move through Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS has a flatter and more progressive trough, whereas the ECMWF has a deeper and slower solution. The result is that the GFS keeps Monday night and Tuesday fairly dry while the ECMWF produces decent QPF. Have gone with chance PoPs to account for the uncertainty. Regardless, high pressure looks to build in Tuesday night and linger through Wednesday night. Then a cold front will approach and cross the state Thursday and Thursday night, bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter the models once again disagree on the handling of the upper trough associated with the low; have kept chance PoPs in for now. After a cool Tuesday, temperatures will be seasonable through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours as high pressure builds in behind cold front. Northwest winds may gust this afternoon btwn 15-20kts before diminishing after 00z. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail 12z Sunday to 12z Monday as the region remains under high pressure. Rain showers will spread from west to east thereafter, with MVFR conditions likely through 12z Tuesday. Conditions will improve back to VFR thereafter, with dry weather resuming by Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas expected to remain well below SCA levels through tonight as high pressure builds toward the waters. SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated into early next week as both winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Hastings

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