Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 092351 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 751 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF THURSDAY. SKY FROM ECMWF...GFS AND NAM. WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST GROUND. FAIR WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANGES WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A SW FLOW BRINGS IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO, THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE NORTH WARMS UP BY A FEW DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO BECOME MUGGY AND MORE UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION BY LATER SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GEM. FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT FOR SEEING HIGHS MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL FOR THIS NEXT UPCOMING MUGGY STRETCH FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEPS LOW TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN FAIRLY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS. COULD ALSO HAVE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THU THROUGH SAT. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THU NIGHT...MAINLY AT KPQI AND KHUL THAT COULD BRIEFLY DROP THE VSBY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUN AND MON IN -SHRA/-TSHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR A SCA FOR SEAS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS

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