Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 021615 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1215 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 1210 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. A DEEP FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS MAINE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OFFSHORE. THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DRAWING MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...THE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE INDUCING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS GREENVILLE AND UPPER 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW WL BE WELL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. H5 LOW WIL HV CROSSED INTO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK BY THIS TIME AS WELL WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN LINGERING ACRS CWA THUS HV GONE DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED. WITH COOL NRLY FLOW AND CLD CVR EXPECTD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE 60S. HIPRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WL DOMINATE WX WED NGT. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST TWD THE GULF OF MAINE WINDS WL BCM MORE SRLY AFT 06Z. DRY WX LOOKS AS THO IT WL DOMINATE UNTIL THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY IN WARM ADVECTION WL TOP OUT ARND NORMAL, IN THE LWR 70S. LATE THUR NGT WL FEATURE A SFC BNDRY APPCHG FM CANADA WITH PERHAPS A VRY SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS NWRN ZONES BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING OF FROPA EARLY IN THE EXTNDD WITH GFS/CMC BRINGING IT INTO CWA BY 00Z SAT AND EC ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER. SPEED OF BNDRY WL DETERMINE THUNDER POTENTIAL IN REGARD TO DIURNAL HTG AND INSTABILITY. HV KEPT THUNDER MENTION FM 18Z FRI - 06Z SAT TO ACCNT FOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. FRONT CLRS CWA SAT MRNG WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN RAPIDLY BHND AND HV FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR DETAILS. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CIGS...SPREADING NORTH FROM BGR AND BHB TOWARDS PQI DURING THE DAY. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT BGR AND BHB. RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL MORNING FOR BGR AND BHB. THE RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OF HUL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN -SHRA AND -TSRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THOUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.