Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191311 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 811 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will cross northern Maine this afternoon and will be followed by a cold front later today with a secondary cold front tonight. High pressure will build toward the region Monday. A warm front will cross the area Tuesday and will be followed by a cold front Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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8 AM Update...Temperatures are nudging above freezing across the north so allowed the winter weather advisory to expire and removed headlines. Also raised temps through some interior Downeast locations where temps are in the mid 50s already. Previous discussion...Wintry precip will linger across the north early this morning, then the focus turns to gusty winds for this afternoon and evening. Low pressure is currently lifting up along the Saint Lawrence River this morning, placing our region in deep south flow. Warm advection and associated precipitation shield has spread across the region and there`s a wide range of temperatures at this hour, ranging from 25F in Frenchville to 48F in Bangor. Rain is occurring across the south while cold air at the surface is resulting in a wintry mix in northern and central areas; Houlton and Millinocket are both reporting unknown precipitation - likely sleet - at 32F, while Caribou and Frenchville are reporting freezing rain. The warm air will continue to slowly infiltrate northern Maine; the Saint John Valley will hold onto below freezing temperatures and freezing rain and sleet the longest. While expect most locations will be above freezing with rain by daybreak or shortly thereafter, the usual sheltered valleys in the North Woods may hold onto the wintry precip a bit longer. Ice, snow, and sleet accumulations will be minor, but could still result in slippery travel, especially on untreated or secondary roads. Therefore, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in place for now and will monitor trends closely for any needed adjustments later this morning. Rain will continue through the early afternoon hours, then it will taper off from south to north as the low moves to our east, dragging its attendant cold front through the region. Daytime highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but much colder air will follow in the front`s wake, turning any lingering showers over the north to snow. However, expect little snow accumulation as the bulk of the precip will end prior to the coldest air. Once the wintry precipitation comes to an end, the concern turns to gusty winds as the deepening low moves to our north and east and the cold front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. Strong south winds will develop out ahead of the front, then quickly switch to the west behind the front. The question will be how much of the stronger winds aloft will be able to mix down to the surface just ahead, with, and behind the front, especially given that there will be ample cloud cover and frontal passage will occur as the day heads toward sunset. At this time gusts of 35-40 mph are expected for much of the area, but gusts of 45 are possible along the coast, with locally higher gusts. Have therefore issued a Wind Advisory for the coast for this afternoon and evening. Winds will abate later tonight as mixing lessens and the pressure gradient weakens a bit. Much colder air follows the frontal passage; tonight`s lows will be in the lower 20s north and in the upper 20s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep surface low along the Quebec/Labrador border Monday will keep a gusty west wind across the region. The air mass will be cold with 850H temps dropping to around -15C Monday afternoon. Cyclonic flow aloft will likely lead to a mostly cloudy sky across northern areas with flurries, and with some downslope a mostly sunny day across the Downeast Region. Highs will be about 10 degrees (F) below average ranging from the mid 20s in the Saint John valley to the low 30s in the Greater Bangor Region. The clouds will likely break up some Mon night in the north with the sky becoming partly cloudy, and it should remain mainly clear toward the coast. The flow turns into the southwest Tuesday as low pressure passes south of James bay and into western Quebec and high pressure passes well off the Middle Atlantic coast. A warm front will lift across the region and 850H temps moderate quite dramatically by Tue afternoon to above 0C Downeast. Temperatures by Tue afternoon will return to more seasonable levels with highs in the mid 30s north to the mid to upper 40s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Wednesday an upper trough and cold front cross the region and are followed by a quasi-zonal flow for Thanksgiving Day. The latest 00Z GFS keeps a southern branch low south and east of the region Wednesday. The Canadian brushes the Downeast coast with a bit of light rain Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF has more significant QPF on the order of a 1/3" across the far southeast portion of the CWA that would be rain Wed afternoon, perhaps ending as a brief period of wet snow Wed evening. The PoPs were increased to likely from 18Z Wed through 00z Thu for coastal Hancock and central and coastal Washington Counties. Seasonably cold for Thanksgiving Day with more clouds than sun in the north and a few flurries and partly sunny Downeast. The next system looks to come in from the west over the weekend with some rain and snow showers, but at this time it does not look like there is much likelihood of any phasing with the southern branch, so significant precipitation at this vantage point does not look likely. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late November. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR will prevail at all terminals due to low ceilings and reduced visibility in rain and fog. A wintry mix of precipitation will be possible at the northern terminals through 12z Sun, then just plain rain is expected. The rain will wind down and ceilings gradually lift from south to north after 18z today; expect all sites will be VFR by 06z Mon. Although the steady precipitation will end by 21z, scattered showers...rain turning to snow...are possible through 06z tonight at the northern sites, and MVFR conditions will be possible in any precipitation. Gusty south winds will turn to the west late this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the region. SHORT TERM: MVFR ceilings are possible at the northern terminals, especially from KPQI north Mon into Mon evening with areas of stratocu. VFR conditions are expected Downeast. VFR is expected Mon night into Tue. MVFR at times Wed at the northern terminals with a chance of rain and snow showers. IFR possible at the Downeast terminals where there will be a better chance of rain. VFR should return Downeast Thursday with MVFR to VFR at the northern terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning remains in effect through late this evening. South winds will increase today as strong low pressure lifts to the north and west of the waters. Gusts up to 40 kt are expected. Winds will turn to the west this evening after a cold front crosses the region, but they will remain gusty to 40 kt through midnight. They will subside a bit thereafter as the pressure gradient lessens, but gusts up to 30 kt will still be possible. Hence expect the Gale Warning will need to be transitioned to a Small Craft Advisory later tonight. Seas will build to 9-13 ft this afternoon given the onshore flow, then drop overnight after the cold frontal passage. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisories will likely be required Monday into Monday night with the possibility of a few gale force gusts Monday afternoon on the coastal waters. SCA conditions will likely continue into Wed morning with the potential of sub advisory conditions by late Wed into Thu. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
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