Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190357 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1057 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE BANGOR AREA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .CLIMATE... A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1 PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA CLIMATE...CB

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