Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180814 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 414 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will remain to our north today then dissipate as it tracks into the Northern Maritimes tonight into Tuesday. A new low will develop over the area Wednesday then track northeast of the region on Thursday. High pressure will build into the area Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to our north northeast today as a surface trough extends southwest of this low across the northern and western edge of our region. Cold air aloft in the upper trough over our relatively milder air at the surface will produce steep lapse rates today. Moisture pooled in the surface trough will combine with these steep lapse rates to produce numerous snow showers over the north, mixed with some rain showers in the lower elevations. A few locally heavier snow showers may be possible over the north and northwest this afternoon as surface convergence associated with the surface trough work with these steep lapse rates to produce some low top convection. Lapse rates are also expected to be steep Downeast although the southern part of our region will not have as much moisture and surface convergence to work with so will just have isolated to scattered snow and rain showers over the south. Some snow showers will likely continue over the north tonight as the surface trough and its moisture pivots across. Otherwise, the sky will range from mostly cloudy north to partly cloudy Downeast. Low temperatures from the low to mid 20s north to the upper 20s and low 30s Downeast will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Mid-March.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Msly cldy skies and sct mainly lgt sn shwrs will cont ovr Nrn ptns of the FA durg the day Tue with contd llvl cold advcn while ptly sunny skies prevail ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas. Temps will be at or slightly abv seasonal norms. Skies will cont ptly to msly cldy Tue Ngt into Wed Morn with weak sfc high pres crossing the FA, with sct sn shwrs N and mixed rn/sn shwrs Downeast by late Wed Aftn as llvl advcn ahead of the next Alberta clipper s/wv apchg the FA from the WNW. Both low temps Tue Ngt and Wed will again be at or a little abv seasonal norms.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Longer range models really vary with the evolution of a secondary sfc low pres with a fairly strong Alberta Clipper s/wv xpctd to apch Wed Ngt and cross the area later Thu or Thu Eve. There is a potential of meso sn banding with this system both in the weak warm advcn phase Wed Ngt and perhaps even more so on Thu, possibly lasting as long as Thu Eve as a deformation band tries to form on the back side of the sfc low as it slowly moves E of the FA. The problem is that almost every dtmnstc and associated ensbls vary with regard to how much banding and where it sets up relative to our FA. For now, we increase PoPs for steady sn to the high likely to low categorical range late Wed Ngt into much of Thu, before tapering PoPs to chc sn shwrs later Thu Aftn into Thu Eve based on blended long range guidance. It should be noted that end tm of steady sn with this event is uncertain, with a few stronger model solutions like the 00z dtmnstc CanGem/ECMWF holding on to meso banding ovr parts of the FA as late Thu Eve. Although we certainly cannot rule wntr wx hdlns for at least ptns of the FA, we will need more model consensus to determine where. Luckily, there is still tm with the next few fcst updates to make a better determination for this tm frame. In any event, sn will taper to sct sn shwrs Thu Ngt and then move E on Fri as the both the sfc and upper low movg E ovr the Can Maritimes, with colder, more arctic air moving into the FA. Fri Ngt into Sat Morn looks to be fair and cold as a narrow sfc ridge crosses the FA. Sat Aftn and Sat Ngt looks to be msly cldy with a chc of at least sn shwrs as another s/wv trof apchs from the W. Some models bring deeper moisture into the FA from the S associated with a sfc low and Srn s/wv movg ENE from the SE states, but blended long range model guidance keeps higher PoPs S of our FA durg this tm frame for now. Sun looks msly fair attm with contd below avg temps.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions are expected across the north today, improving to VFR tonight. VFR conditions are expected Downeast today and tonight. Winds will be W around 10 to 15 kt today and 5 kt tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs. Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. Tue Ngt - Wed Morn...All TAF sites VFR with lgt winds. Wed Aftn - Wed Eve...All TAF site MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs, nixed with rn Downeast Wed Aftn. Lgt S winds. Late Wed Ngt - Thu...all TAF sites MVFR clgs/IFR vsbys in sn. Downeast sites low VFR clgs/MVFR vsbys in sct sn shwrs Thu Aftn. Lgt E winds Wed Ngt becmg mdt N-NW Thu. Thu Ngt...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs. Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Mdt NW winds. Fri...All TAF sites low VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR with mdt WNW winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue today for W to SW winds gusting up to 30 kt and seas up to 6 ft. Winds will diminish and seas subside tonight dropping below SCA. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly marginal SCA or less winds/seas, xcpt Thu Aftn into Thu Ngt when strong SCA winds and possible low end gale force wind gusts from the NW will be possible spcly ovr outer MZs. Kept close to blended wv model fcst wv hts with wv pds arnd 8 sec with msly a single spectral group.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Bloomer/VJN Marine...Bloomer/VJN

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