Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290024 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 724 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW RAPIDLY THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 10 INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THROUGH THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN MOVING TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE USED A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS AND BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND THEN LOWERED TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BY EARLY SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN MAINE...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. BY SUN MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO ERN ME/WRN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ECMWF HAS THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MAINE. BY MID DAY THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...MOVING MAINE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF MAINE OVER QUEBEC CITY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN NEW BRUNSWICK...WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEST OF QUEBEC CITY. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE COLD FRONT INTO NW ME MON MRNG. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO THE SRN GULF OF ME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF EXTENDS IT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST FOR HRLY TEMP/DP...WND/POP/SKY. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. USED HPCGRIDS FOR QPF...ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE LAST 12HRS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IN ABOUT 6 HR BEHIND IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT. MON EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO SRN MAINE...A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS NRN MAINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF NRN CANADA ACROSS QUEBEC TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG THE MAINE COAST...AND MOVES IT OFF SHORE EARLY TUES MRNG. BOTH MODELS SHOW OUR WEATHER DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG WED. WED MRNG BOTH MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WRN ME. BOTH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN MAINE FRONT A SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY...THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FROM HERE THE MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER MAINE...WITH IT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH FRI EVNG. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PORTLAND AREA WED EVNG...MOVING IT NE THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK THEN ON INTO THE MARITIMES...MOVING THE COLD FRONT TROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY THURS MRNG. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING TO THE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR SAT. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SKY CON WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MVFR BY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW...FALLING TO IFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BY MORNING. SKY CON AND VSBY WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN SCA FOR WNDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON

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