Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 031307 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 907 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. FARTHER NORTH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/SKY/WIND TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS. 6AM UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES. DEW POINTS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM READINGS MEASURED TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AS THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVECT TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY EXPERIENCING SUNSHINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE CLEARING WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SPECIFIED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MAINE. THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT WITH A TASTE OF FALL AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME LOWS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AT CARIBOU SINCE MID JULY. A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE ALLAGASH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1025MB SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY FRI MRNG AND REIGNS SUPREME THRU THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WL LKLY BE BLO NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INTERIOR DOWNEAST CREEPING INTO THE LWR 70S AND NRN ZONES STUCK IN THE 60S. H5 RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY SAT MRNG WITH 590 HEIGHTS CNTRD OVR THE GREEN/WHITE MTNS. THIS WL HOLD TIGHT THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM BFR WVS EJECTING TWD CWA FM UPR LOW OVR PRAIRIE PROVINCES SERVE TO FLATTEN RIDGE. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ABV NRML MAXES PROGGED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRONTAL BNDRY WL BE LURKING NORTH OF CWA ON MONDAY WITH AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLE ACRS NRN ZONES AT BEST. FRONT WL DRIFT SOUTH ON TUE AND FRCG ASSOC WITH S/WVS ROTATING THRU IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL HTG WL RESULT IN CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF DOWNEAST AREAS. CWA WL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AND HV LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLGT CHC. BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS WL EXIST ON THURSDAY AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR VIS AND SOME PATCHY STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOG IS PUSHING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE GONE LATER THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 20 KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BERDES SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...BERDES/FARRAR MARINE...BERDES/FARRAR

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