Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 180814
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
414 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will remain to our north today then dissipate as it
tracks into the Northern Maritimes tonight into Tuesday. A new low
will develop over the area Wednesday then track northeast of the
region on Thursday. High pressure will build into the area
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to our north
northeast today as a surface trough extends southwest of this low
across the northern and western edge of our region. Cold air aloft
in the upper trough over our relatively milder air at the surface
will produce steep lapse rates today. Moisture pooled in the surface
trough will combine with these steep lapse rates to produce numerous
snow showers over the north, mixed with some rain showers in the
lower elevations. A few locally heavier snow showers may be
possible over the north and northwest this afternoon as surface
convergence associated with the surface trough work with these
steep lapse rates to produce some low top convection. Lapse
rates are also expected to be steep Downeast although the
southern part of our region will not have as much moisture and
surface convergence to work with so will just have isolated to
scattered snow and rain showers over the south.
Some snow showers will likely continue over the north tonight as
the surface trough and its moisture pivots across. Otherwise,
the sky will range from mostly cloudy north to partly cloudy
Downeast. Low temperatures from the low to mid 20s north to the
upper 20s and low 30s Downeast will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for Mid-March.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Msly cldy skies and sct mainly lgt sn shwrs will cont ovr Nrn
ptns of the FA durg the day Tue with contd llvl cold advcn while
ptly sunny skies prevail ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas. Temps
will be at or slightly abv seasonal norms. Skies will cont ptly
to msly cldy Tue Ngt into Wed Morn with weak sfc high pres
crossing the FA, with sct sn shwrs N and mixed rn/sn shwrs
Downeast by late Wed Aftn as llvl advcn ahead of the next
Alberta clipper s/wv apchg the FA from the WNW. Both low temps
Tue Ngt and Wed will again be at or a little abv seasonal norms.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Longer range models really vary with the evolution of a
secondary sfc low pres with a fairly strong Alberta Clipper
s/wv xpctd to apch Wed Ngt and cross the area later Thu or Thu
Eve. There is a potential of meso sn banding with this system
both in the weak warm advcn phase Wed Ngt and perhaps even more
so on Thu, possibly lasting as long as Thu Eve as a deformation
band tries to form on the back side of the sfc low as it slowly
moves E of the FA. The problem is that almost every dtmnstc and
associated ensbls vary with regard to how much banding and
where it sets up relative to our FA. For now, we increase PoPs
for steady sn to the high likely to low categorical range late
Wed Ngt into much of Thu, before tapering PoPs to chc sn shwrs
later Thu Aftn into Thu Eve based on blended long range
guidance. It should be noted that end tm of steady sn with this
event is uncertain, with a few stronger model solutions like the
00z dtmnstc CanGem/ECMWF holding on to meso banding ovr parts
of the FA as late Thu Eve. Although we certainly cannot rule
wntr wx hdlns for at least ptns of the FA, we will need more
model consensus to determine where. Luckily, there is still tm
with the next few fcst updates to make a better determination
for this tm frame.
In any event, sn will taper to sct sn shwrs Thu Ngt and then
move E on Fri as the both the sfc and upper low movg E ovr the
Can Maritimes, with colder, more arctic air moving into the FA.
Fri Ngt into Sat Morn looks to be fair and cold as a narrow sfc
ridge crosses the FA. Sat Aftn and Sat Ngt looks to be msly cldy
with a chc of at least sn shwrs as another s/wv trof apchs from
the W. Some models bring deeper moisture into the FA from the S
associated with a sfc low and Srn s/wv movg ENE from the SE
states, but blended long range model guidance keeps higher PoPs
S of our FA durg this tm frame for now. Sun looks msly fair attm
with contd below avg temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions are expected
across the north today, improving to VFR tonight. VFR conditions
are expected Downeast today and tonight. Winds will be W around
10 to 15 kt today and 5 kt tonight.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys
in sct sn shwrs. Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW
winds.
Tue Ngt - Wed Morn...All TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.
Wed Aftn - Wed Eve...All TAF site MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys in
sct sn shwrs, nixed with rn Downeast Wed Aftn. Lgt S winds.
Late Wed Ngt - Thu...all TAF sites MVFR clgs/IFR vsbys in sn.
Downeast sites low VFR clgs/MVFR vsbys in sct sn shwrs Thu Aftn.
Lgt E winds Wed Ngt becmg mdt N-NW Thu.
Thu Ngt...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs/ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs.
Downeast sites low VFR clgs. Mdt NW winds.
Fri...All TAF sites low VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR with mdt WNW
winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM:
A SCA will continue today for W to SW winds gusting up to 30 kt
and seas up to 6 ft. Winds will diminish and seas subside
tonight dropping below SCA.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly marginal SCA or less winds/seas, xcpt
Thu Aftn into Thu Ngt when strong SCA winds and possible low end
gale force wind gusts from the NW will be possible spcly ovr
outer MZs. Kept close to blended wv model fcst wv hts with wv
pds arnd 8 sec with msly a single spectral group.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/VJN