Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 162205 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 605 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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605 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM SW TONIGHT. STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND SKY GRIDS THROUGH 01Z...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE E/NE AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND BE FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S...HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE M/U 30S. MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S DOWN EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S AROUND ESCOURT STATION. FOR THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH WILL STAY UP INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, WE EXPECT A HARD FREEZE OVER THE NW WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING IN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY BUT NOT AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE NW TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY...BUT AREAS OF MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCT -SHRA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF KHUL. SHORT TERM: MVFR TEMPO IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH A WARM FRONT. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HURRICANE EDOUARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 13-15 SEC FROM THE SE THAT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 5 FT. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY WED PM OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE LONG PERIOD OF THE SWELL IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EDOUARD MAY REACH 5 FT BY WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS

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