Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310149 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 949 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the region late tonight... followed by a stronger secondary cold front Tuesday afternoon. High pressure builds across the area Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front will approach northern New England Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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540 PM update: Latest radar indicates a slow weakening trend of shwrs and isold tstms msly across Nrn ptns of the FA, but there are still other scattered shwrs and isold tstms that may affect xtrm nrn ptns of the FA ovr the next hr or two...so we will keep the going fcst of PoPs and tstm ending the same...which is msly by mdngt. This is supported by the latest HRRR sim radar ref output. Otherwise...fcst hrly temps thru the ovrngt were only slightly modified using trends noted from obsvd 8-9pm to msly unchgd fcst lows posted at 5am. Orgnl Disc: We are still anticipating scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. The warm front has crossed the region and we`re getting plenty of clearing skies in the state. Cumulus clouds have already started to pop up in the North Woods where the sun`s been around the longest and temperatures have already risen into the mid 70s. And in Quebec, where the time of heating has been even longer, convection is already well underway. As such, expect convection will spread eastward into northern Maine through this afternoon. Although CAPE will be modest, topping out at around 800 J/kg, 0-6km shear is a more impressive 40 kt. This will allow some storms to become organized and capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Given this amount of shear, would not be surprised to see a few strong to possibly severe storms develop this afternoon. SPC continues to keep the northwestern 2/3 of our area in a marginal severe weather risk in their latest Day 1 outlook. The storms will dissipate this evening as daytime heating is lost. It`ll be a mild night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. A weak cool front will cross the region overnight, bringing in some slightly cooler air. Skies will clear out, but with plenty of lingering moisture from today`s rain, expect fog to develop overnight, particularly along the coast. For Tuesday, a secondary cold front will cross the state, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms for the north. Moisture will be lacking a bit more with this activity, so don`t expect it to be quite as widespread as today. Highs will be quite warm though, especially Downeast where temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s away from the coast. Northern and central areas will be a little cooler since the front will pass through there first; highs in the mid 70s will be common.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front and upper level shortwave will speed east Tuesday night with a northerly flow at the surface advecting cooler and more stable air. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid 50s for Bangor and Down East. High pressure builds Wednesday...yielding mostly sunny skies, low humidity and highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The higher end of the range will be found in the southern half of the forecast area where downslope/offshore flow will keep cool sea breezes out of the forecast until late day. On Wednesday night...the high moves east and a southerly flow is expected to generate some coastal and upslope fog and and stratus later in the night into Thursday morning. This onshore flow means a reversal of the previous day`s highs. This time, the warmest highs will be in the Allagash and the coolest highs will be on the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A dry and pleasant weekend is likely this weekend as shortwave ridging moves over. However, the major weather story as we go into the longer range, especially early next week, will be a big amplification of the jet stream. This will include a ridge in the western US and a deep trough in the eastern US which will bring cool, wet and unsettled weather through much of next week. The trough will be supported by a blocking ridge near Greenland; a negative NAO pattern. Beginning with late this week, clouds will increase Thursday night as low pressure tracking to our north pulls a weak occlusion across the region. Some showers will be possible late Thursday night through Friday. Skies will trend clearer on Saturday then Sunday should feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures as ridging briefly moves across our area. A deep low pressure system will intensify and dig through the great lakes late in the weekend. This low will approach on Monday bringing increasing clouds and some rain to the area. Rain, drizzle and low clouds will likely last through the middle of next week as the deep low very slowly moves across our region. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions are already improving to VFR across the north as skies begin to clear out. Cumulus will quickly develop in any clear spots, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Localized IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms that develop. Patchy fog will develop overnight, leading to occasional MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at the northern sites. The southern terminals may briefly see MVFR or perhaps even VFR conditions, but they will drop back to IFR/LIFR this evening due to fog and remain so through 12z Tuesday. The fog will dissipate and conditions will improve to VFR thereafter. SHORT TERM: There`s a chance of MVFR tempo IFR clgs for BHB and BGR late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed tonight or Tuesday. Southwest winds will increase overnight as a cold front slowly approaches the waters from the north. Gusts up to 20 kt are expected. Seas will build to around 4 feet, but overall conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. SHORT TERM: No significant weather is forecast. Patchy fog and stratus is possible later Wednesday night, but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this point. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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