Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011924 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 324 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND EXTEND TO APPROXIMATELY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT. CURRENT GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD SO HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO END AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MAINE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A TROPICAL OR SUB TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS KFVE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS KCAR... KPQI AND KHUL TONIGHT THEN IFR/MVFR TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/ TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE SUSTAINED WINDS WITH NAM12 THEN HAVE ADJUSTED LOWER BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR WAVES: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS GENERATING A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE FETCH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. WIND DIRECTION FROM AROUND 050 DEGREES IS LIMITING FETCH DISTANCE AND CONSEQUENTLY WAVE HEIGHTS... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WATERS WHERE SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED FETCH DISTANCE. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST A LONGER.... MORE EASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA RESULTING IN LARGER AND LONGER PERIOD WAVES HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED BUT THIS WILL BE BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD WILL USE A 1500Z RUN OF THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI

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