Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220521 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1221 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1215AM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A NORLUN TYPE SETUP FOR THE SW AND DOWNEAST REGION W/SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS HANDLING THIS SETUP WELL SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS DOWNEAST AND SW MAINE AND THEN SPREAD NNE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE COAST NNW INTO THE THE MT. KATAHDIN AND MILLINOCKET REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NNW MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE 1830Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED/COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE GRADUALLY EXPANDING BACK TO THE W TOWARD THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF INVERTED TROF. SNOW WILL ALIGN ALONG THIS TROF OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 40% ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER NORTH FOR NOW. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH AT BEST AND MAINLY OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP SHIELD EXPANDS FURTHER NORTH AND INTENSIFIES. ANOTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900MBS AND A LIGHT SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANY ICING THREAT ATTM WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE COASTAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS OFF-SHORE. WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY GENERATING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD... PASSING TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR POP AND QPF. USED BURLINGTON CLOUD TOOL FOR SKIES. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS USED THE MOSG25. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS COASTAL AND CENTRAL AREAS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AS POCKETS OF COLD AIR PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CROSS THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY. FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LIMITS INTO MONDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY LOWERING VSBYS AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 3 NM. SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SUPER BLEND WINDS HIGHER THURSDAY. FOR WAVES: LONG FETCH DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDS FROM COAST TO APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 15 FEET/9-11 SECONDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FETCH LATER THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON FORECASTER WINDS AND WAVE WATCH III BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THROUGH 25TH/0600Z THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE(WEDNESDAY) INTO CHRISTMAS DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL W/LOW PRES FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX BASINS W/1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, RAINFALL OF 1+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW, HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF AND RISES ON THE RIVERS. ANY ICE WILL LIKELY MELT/BREAKUP AND MOVE. THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IS A CONCERN AS IT COULD BREAK UP AND MOVE W/THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CONCERN OVER RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE (PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE) HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z (11.76 FT MLLW)... 25TH/1800Z (12.73 FT MLLW) AND 26/0624Z (11.80 FT). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FETCH... ON 24TH TO 25... EXTENDING FROM COAST TO 600 NM TO SOUTH. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET AND PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS DURING THESE HIGH TIDES. WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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