Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240804 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE COD. THE SATELLITE WV LOOP INDICATED THE LOW TO BE FILLING AND STARTING TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE LAST FEW FRAMES. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN NOW SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEW BRUNSWICK ALL THE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM AND HRRR 3KM MODEL WERE DOING QUITE WELL AS OF 06Z. 36 HR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE COME IN W/2-2.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS(PISCATAQUIS COUNTY) AND ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE COAST. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FROM A TRACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY TO 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FROM CARIBOU TO MILLINOCKET. STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRED. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND AREAS WILL SEE STEADY RAIN LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW MOVES NE AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE CANADIAN GEM HAS THIS NICELY DEPICTED W/ THE 1000-1700MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD BE SEEN BEFORE THE RAIN LIGHTENS UP. AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. SOME MINOR/NUISANCE STUFF IE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY W/CLOGGED STORM DRAINS DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS. IT WILL BE CHILLY W/TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK BUT W/CLOUDS AROUND, THINKING HERE IS THAT READINGS WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 AND AROUND 40 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EVEN THOUGH WE COULDNT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY MORNING THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA APPROACHES WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWERS 40S AND HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S DOWN EAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR LATE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR TODAY ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. KFVE AND KCAR WERE ACTUALLY AT VFR AS OF 07Z, BUT THIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE. ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, MVFR TEMPO IFR WILL HOLD INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM:VFR SATURDAY. VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME GUSTS STILL NEAR 35 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SCA BY 7 AM W/SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS WERE UP THERE AVERAGING 9 TO 12 FT BUT THEY WERE STARTING TO COME DOWN. FORECASTS SHOWS THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS DROPPING OFF TO 4-6 FT AS THE LOW PASSES SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING THAN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS COULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

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