Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 310238
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1038 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then
move east on Sunday. Low pressure from the great lakes will
slowly track south of the region Monday through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --1025 PM Update: Sky conditions needed adjusting for the downeast
areas including the coast as the IR Satellite imagery showed high
clouds moving in from the sw. The thickest cloud cover will be
across the coast using the latest CONSHORT and HRRR. Temps
continue to drop back w/some sites back across the w already down
in the mid 50s under clear skies. High clouds over the downeast
will hold temps up some but as the cirrus shield thins, temps will
fall back by early morning. Kept patchy fog in especially along
the rivers and valleys.
Sfc hi pres ovr QB will cont to ridge ovr the FA going into tngt
into Sun morn before shifting ewrd into the Can Maritimes by early
Sun eve. This will allow for clrg skies as SC cld cvr dissipates
this eve and winds to become lgt and vrbl...and for good
radiational cooling late tngt, spcly ovr NW vlys where we xpct
late ngt patchy rvr fog due to warm rvr water temps this tm of
summer. We used last ngts obsvd lows as a starting point and went
for more xpnded cvrg of lower temps ovr much of the rest of the FA
from NW vlys.
Sun will begin sunny FA wide, with hi and mid cldnss slowly
spreading SW to NE into the FA durg the day, reaching into Nrn
most ptns of the FA by erly Sun eve. Any rnfl from advancing low
pres from the great lks, even ovr xtrm SW ptns of the FA will hold
off til later Mon ngt. Hi temps Sun aftn will be pretty similar to
tdy`s, but a few deg cooler ovr wrn ptns of the FA due to
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather can be expected through much of the near
term period. Sunday night will see clouds increasing in advance
of an approaching upper trof and weak area of low pressure
from the west. Some showers will start to make it into central
and downeast areas by Monday morning, with the northern half of
the region remaining rain free Sunday night. More showery type
conditions can be expected across just about all areas Monday
afternoon as a lead short wave trof crosses the region. The
weather pattern will remain unsettled Monday night and into
Tuesday as the upper trof and surface lows move east. The best
shower chances will be across central and downeast areas Monday
night and Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will be near or a bit
below normal, but then close to normal for this time of year on
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect improving conditions Tuesday night as upper level ridging
starts to build in behind the departing system. Wednesday and
Thursday will see an upper ridging continuing to build across the
area as surface high pressure moves east of the region. This will
bring warmer and increasingly more humid weather to the region by
Thursday. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, mainly across northern most
areas, as a series of weak short waves traverse northern Maine
from Quebec. Friday has the potential to be an active day in
advance of an approaching cold front. Expect showers and afternoon
thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front by Friday afternoon
and into Friday evening. With the very warm and humid conditions
in place the atmosphere could potentially become quite unstable,
with strong storms possible ahead of the front. It should be noted
that the above scenario is predicated on the GFS solution and
timing of the approaching front. The latest ECMWF continues to be
slower with the approaching front and doesn`t bring it through
until later Saturday. Anyway, that`s several days out and stuck
with the model blended solution at this point. Depending on the
timing of the front, showers could linger into Saturday.
Temperatures through the long term period will be at near normal
levels Wednesday and Thursday and then above normal by Friday,
then near normal by early next weekend.
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...xcpt briefly MVFR or even IFR vsbys with patchy
rvr vly fog erly sun morn for low lying TAF sites.
SHORT TERM: Despite the threat of showers and mid week
thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR through most of the
period. However, patchy fog could result in mvfr at times Monday
night and into Tuesday, especially at the downeast terminals.
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd thru this ptn of the fcst with winds and
wvs well below SCA criteria. Wv pds will diminish from 8 to 9 sec
this aftn back to about 6 sec ovrngt into Sun as off shore winds
weaken and slowly become on shore. Went with about 80 to 90
percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should remain below sca levels through the