Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 022159 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 559 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LN OF SHWRS AND SCT TSTMS OVR NW ME MOVG E...WITH THE STRONGEST OF TSTMS (A FEW) CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...ALONG WITH GENERALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AN SPS WAS ISSUED INTO ERLY EVE HIGHLIGHTING THESE ELEMENTS...BUT FCSTS OF SBCAPE OVR NERN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT COUPLE HRS WHERE THIS LN IS MOVG TOWARD IS FCSTNG LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THE OVRALL TREND OF THIS LN SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE CURRENT PSN OF SHWRS...WE NEEDED TO SLOW THE ONSET OF POPS INTO THE REST OF THE FA BY A COUPLE OF HRS USING THE TM SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR AND HRLY TEMPS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND HRLY SFC OBS. NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS ATTM. ORGNL DISC: THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND REACH DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS DO DEPICT CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 K/KG ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BUT THIS BECOME MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT SEE A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING SO DID ADD THE ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE N/W ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS NORTH WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WITH US BEING JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH, LOOK FOR STABLE WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MUGGIER AIRMASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CAN CLEAR DOWNEAST MAINE. BUT GENERALLY, IMPROVING WEATHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY LIKELY THAT EVEN DOWNEAST WILL BE DRY FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT PROBABLY LACKING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF WE HAVE A NIGHT WHERE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT AND LOW STRATUS AND FOG BECOMES AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR ONCE AGAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH LIFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS CLEAR WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHORT TERM: SUB SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH BOTH POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BACK TO SUB SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...VJN/FOISY MARINE...VJN/FOISY

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