Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211712 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 112 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. LOOK FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG THE MAINE COAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF. BOTH MODELS FOCUS HEAVIES QPF AMOUNTS ALONG COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WIND GRIDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. SOME THINGS POINTING TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALONG W/THE STRONG ESE INFLOW FROM 850-500MBS AND ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR. PLUS, ADD THE DEFORMATION BANDING FROM 1000-700MBS TO THE MIX AND THE OUTCOME COULD BE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, RAIN WILL BE SLOWER TO TAKE HOLD DUE TO HIGH PRES HANGING ON A WHILE LONGER. THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 1ST WAVE OF RAIN MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BORDER. THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER W/BRINGING THE RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND HITS THE DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINE VERY HARD W/RAINFALL. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT W/THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO BRING THE RAIN CHANCES UP(60-70%) ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND WAVES OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COORDINATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH AND GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DOES NOT HIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING ATTM. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO REACT W/SOME RISES BUT ATTM, THINKING HERE IS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. SMALLER STREAMS AND BROOKS COULD VERY WELL FILL UP FASTER AND BECOME BANKFUL W/THE FIRST SLUG. THE 2ND WAVE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY WILL ADD FURTHER TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL TODAY W/MORE GUIDANCE COMING IN. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FROM ENE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS FROM 925-850MBS FROM THE ESE OVERRIDING THE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE OF UP TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. ATTM, NO WIND HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE 2ND WAVE OF RAINFALL FILLS IN AS LOW PRES OPENS AND LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD FALL WHICH WOULD ADD TO THE FIRST SLUG GIVING A STORM TOTAL OF POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF THE RAINFALL TOTAL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS HITTING THE 6 INCH MARK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS WASHINGTON, PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT W/RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE MARITIMES. IN ITS WAKE, WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES W/A RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY THAT COMES ABOUT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/RAIN. THE ECMWF WANT TO BRING ANOTHER LOW(WEAKER) ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER W/JUST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. A LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS IT TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION W/SOME RAIN. DECIDED TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE W/READINGS NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...BECOMING MVFR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT DOWNEAST AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND PERHAPS IFR LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH, RAIN MAY MAKE IT NORTH TO HOULTON, BUT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER NORTH TO PRESQUE ISLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH TO NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL ACTUALLY SEE VFR GOING TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY RIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: EXPECT A SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP EAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FETCH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE 3-3 FEET/6 TO 7 SECONDS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TONIGHT EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM AND BUILD TO 6-7 FEET TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP 4-5 FEET/7-8 SECONDS EMANATING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED GALE BY LATE EVENING... SO WILL UPGRADE TO WATCH TO GALE WARNING WITH TIMING REMAINING THE SAME. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35+ KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30 KTS. WAVES WILL BE BUILDING MORE DUE TO THE PROLONGED ENE FETCH. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS TO A RANGE OF 10-13 FT BY THURSDAY. THE WINDS AND THE WAVES WILL START TO DROP OFF LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BACK TO SCA LEVELS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE/HEWITT

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