Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310238 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1038 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then move east on Sunday. Low pressure from the great lakes will slowly track south of the region Monday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1025 PM Update: Sky conditions needed adjusting for the downeast areas including the coast as the IR Satellite imagery showed high clouds moving in from the sw. The thickest cloud cover will be across the coast using the latest CONSHORT and HRRR. Temps continue to drop back w/some sites back across the w already down in the mid 50s under clear skies. High clouds over the downeast will hold temps up some but as the cirrus shield thins, temps will fall back by early morning. Kept patchy fog in especially along the rivers and valleys. Previous Discussion... Sfc hi pres ovr QB will cont to ridge ovr the FA going into tngt into Sun morn before shifting ewrd into the Can Maritimes by early Sun eve. This will allow for clrg skies as SC cld cvr dissipates this eve and winds to become lgt and vrbl...and for good radiational cooling late tngt, spcly ovr NW vlys where we xpct late ngt patchy rvr fog due to warm rvr water temps this tm of summer. We used last ngts obsvd lows as a starting point and went for more xpnded cvrg of lower temps ovr much of the rest of the FA from NW vlys. Sun will begin sunny FA wide, with hi and mid cldnss slowly spreading SW to NE into the FA durg the day, reaching into Nrn most ptns of the FA by erly Sun eve. Any rnfl from advancing low pres from the great lks, even ovr xtrm SW ptns of the FA will hold off til later Mon ngt. Hi temps Sun aftn will be pretty similar to tdy`s, but a few deg cooler ovr wrn ptns of the FA due to increasing cldnss.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unsettled weather can be expected through much of the near term period. Sunday night will see clouds increasing in advance of an approaching upper trof and weak area of low pressure from the west. Some showers will start to make it into central and downeast areas by Monday morning, with the northern half of the region remaining rain free Sunday night. More showery type conditions can be expected across just about all areas Monday afternoon as a lead short wave trof crosses the region. The weather pattern will remain unsettled Monday night and into Tuesday as the upper trof and surface lows move east. The best shower chances will be across central and downeast areas Monday night and Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will be near or a bit below normal, but then close to normal for this time of year on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect improving conditions Tuesday night as upper level ridging starts to build in behind the departing system. Wednesday and Thursday will see an upper ridging continuing to build across the area as surface high pressure moves east of the region. This will bring warmer and increasingly more humid weather to the region by Thursday. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, mainly across northern most areas, as a series of weak short waves traverse northern Maine from Quebec. Friday has the potential to be an active day in advance of an approaching cold front. Expect showers and afternoon thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front by Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. With the very warm and humid conditions in place the atmosphere could potentially become quite unstable, with strong storms possible ahead of the front. It should be noted that the above scenario is predicated on the GFS solution and timing of the approaching front. The latest ECMWF continues to be slower with the approaching front and doesn`t bring it through until later Saturday. Anyway, that`s several days out and stuck with the model blended solution at this point. Depending on the timing of the front, showers could linger into Saturday. Temperatures through the long term period will be at near normal levels Wednesday and Thursday and then above normal by Friday, then near normal by early next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR...xcpt briefly MVFR or even IFR vsbys with patchy rvr vly fog erly sun morn for low lying TAF sites. SHORT TERM: Despite the threat of showers and mid week thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR through most of the period. However, patchy fog could result in mvfr at times Monday night and into Tuesday, especially at the downeast terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd thru this ptn of the fcst with winds and wvs well below SCA criteria. Wv pds will diminish from 8 to 9 sec this aftn back to about 6 sec ovrngt into Sun as off shore winds weaken and slowly become on shore. Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should remain below sca levels through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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