Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050015 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 715 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight then move to the east Monday morning. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High pressure will return on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Update... High pressure will cross the region tonight with mostly clear skies and cold temperatures. Could also have patchy freezing fog overnight, particularly along river valleys and across the north where the deeper snowpack exists. This will be the coldest night of the season with low temperatures generally ranging through the single digits above zero north, to the mid to upper teens across the Bangor and Downeast regions. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud cover. Previous Discussion... A weak upper level trough approaching the area on Monday will bring increasing clouds. A small surface low will develop offshore and an inverted trough extending onto the coast may produce a period of light snow along the coast late in the day. Otherwise, Monday afternoon will be mostly cloudy and cold across the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak upper trough will cross the area Monday night. This trough may produce a Norlun trough somewhere around the Hancock County coast Monday evening with snow showers. Have gone with chance pops for snow showers Monday for Down East zones. Pops and clouds diminish as the night progresses and focus turns towards northern Aroostook County where there`s the risk of freezing fog and temperatures around 10F. A few of the colder valleys could even drop towards zero with the fresh snowpack, but it`s going to be a very steep subsidence inversion and it`s not a real dry Arctic air mass. Thus, fog may form before temperatures drop much below 10F. Lows for Bangor and the Down East region will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. On Tuesday, high pressure dominates with highs in the mid 20s north and low to mid 30s south. The biggest question will be the evolution of any fog into low clouds north of Houlton on Tuesday. The strong subsidence inversion and available low level moisture cast strong doubts on the prospect of sunshine in these northern zones. These clouds will likely persist north of Houlton Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any breaks in the clouds could produce another round of freezing fog Tuesday night. In terms of low temperatures Tuesday night, went with a consensus blend, but the clouds could mean an upward adjustment will be necessary. High clouds will also increase Tuesday night into Wednesday...meaning all zones will have mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer on Wednesday. Went with slight chance pops on Wednesday due to a rapidly decaying shortwave rotating around an upper low in Ontario. Can`t see much more an a hundredth or two of QPF in the worst case. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves east of CWA early Thursday with a short wave approaching from the Great Lakes. This is a fairly quick mover so currently expect only a few inches of snow across the CWA with rain along the coast. A mid-Atlantic low then develops and drifts northeast but bulk of current model runs show this system remaining well offshore and moving rapidly northeast. The mean of the ensemble still shows a great deal of variability in the long term models with the European as the current outlier predicting significant snowfall...so opt to stick solely with chance pops Thursday...with rain along the Downeast coast and snow elsewhere...with pops diminishing through the end of the period. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal through Friday with cold air moving in behind the secondary mid-Atlantic low through the end period bringing temps to below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions could occur with any patchy freezing fog overnight. Otherwise, generally expect VFR conditions across the region overnight into Monday morning. Occasional MVFR conditions could begin to develop across northern areas later Monday afternoon. MVFR, with occasional IFR, conditions are expected to develop across the Bangor and Downeast regions later Monday afternoon with light snow. SHORT TERM: BGR will likely be VFR until Wednesday. BHB might be temporarily IFR in snow showers Monday evening, but will then be VFR until Wednesday. Terminals north of HUL could experience freezing fog and LIFR later Monday night into early Tuesday morning. From Tuesday morning into Thursday, there is a strong risk of low cigs varying between IFR and low MVFR for these northern airfields. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through Monday. Visibilities could be reduced in rain/snow Monday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Snow showers could be an issue around the Hancock County coast on Monday evening. Otherwise, no significant weather is anticipated until Thursday night when an SCA or even a gale is possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...MCW Long Term...PJR Aviation...Norcross/MCW Marine...Norcross/MCW

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