Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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844 FXUS61 KCAR 221608 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1108 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build north of the area today and tonight. Low pressure will then intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and move north toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:00 AM Update. Forecast remains on track. Some cooler air is beginning to filter across the north. Low stratus is expected to persist today. Previous discussion...A weak cold front will cross the region early this morning, ushering in a colder airmass. Even still, temperatures will be above normal today with highs ranging from around 30 in the north to the mid and upper 30s Downeast. The frontal passage should be dry, though a few flurries aren`t out of the question, and it will be followed by high pressure building south from Canada. Moisture will become trapped under the subsidence inversion, so expect plenty of cloud cover to linger today and tonight. The moisture thins out after midnight, so expect skies will start to clear out late tonight. Temperatures will drop quickly in any areas that see clearing; overnight lows will be around 10 in the northern County and around in Bangor and Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A wintry mix late Monday night through Tuesday... Monday will be the calm before the storm as high pressure remains anchored to our north across eastern Quebec province. Light northeast east winds on Monday will keep high temperatures across northern areas generally in the mid to upper 20s, with highs across central and down east areas in the low to mid 30s. Expect mainly sunny skies across northern areas and partly sunny skies central and down east. Monday night our attention turns to a storm system that will be slowly moving north from the mid atlantic region. Expect increasing clouds Monday evening. Precipitation is expected to develop across central and down east areas after midnight Monday. Across far northern areas, precipitation will hold off until sunrise Tuesday, as it will take a while for atmosphere to saturate with dry low level air associated with the high to our north, in place. Precipitation will then continue to expand across the area Tuesday morning as low pressure continues to lift slowly north from the southern New England coast. Abundant moisture is expected to be transported across the region on Tuesday in advance of the approaching system, with the potential for 0.50 to 1.0+ qpf. There still is some uncertainty with regard to precipitation type but there is the potential for significant accumulations of sleet and freezing rain, especially inland from the down east coast on Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to transition to rain along the immediate coast during Tuesday but northeast winds will continue to funnel low level cold air across inland areas. Thus, have leaned with slightly colder guidance temperatures for high on Tuesday. There will be the potential for significant sleet accumulation along with a quarter inch or more of ice. After collaboration with neighboring office (WFO GYX), decision was made to hold off on any headlines as this time, since precipitation doesn`t really get going until late fourth period across central/down east areas, and early fifth period across the far north . However, winter storm watches and/or advisories will likely be needed starting late Monday night central/down east areas and starting early Tuesday across the far north. Another concern will be the potential for gusty east to northeast winds later Monday night and Tuesday as 925 mb winds increase to 40to 50 kt, with the strongest winds along the down east coast, where a wind advisory will likely be needed later Monday night into Tuesday for the down east coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A wintry mixture of precipitation will be ongoing Tuesday evening before the low slowly tracks into New Brunswick later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional sleet and ice accumulations are possible Tuesday evening. Precipitation will diminish to snow or rain showers during Wednesday as the low continues to lift through the Canadian maritimes. Unsettled weather will persist into late week as an upper trof crosses the region. Temperatures at the beginning of the period will be above normal and then cool to closer to seasonal normals by late week and next weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will prevail at the northern sites through 12z Monday due to ceilings remaining 1500- 2500 ft. Ceilings will lift above 3000 ft at BGR and BHB after 14z Sun and remain so through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR Monday with light northeast winds. Flight conditions will begin to deteriorate later Monday night, especially KBGR/KBHB, in developing wintry mixture of precipitation with IFR expected. Widespread IFR is expected Tuesday through Tuesday night in continued wintry mix with significant sleet/ice accumulation possible inland terminals. Conditions should improve to VFR/MVFR in lingering snow/rain showers Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will turn to the north and northeast and increase to 10 to 20 kts this morning after a weak cold front crosses the waters. High pressure will build north of the waters tonight, and this will cause a tightening pressure gradient across the Gulf of Maine. Winds will increase in response, with gusts reaching 25-30 kt after midnight. Seas will hover around 2 feet through the day today and then build to around 4 feet by daybreak Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will gradually increase to small craft advisory levels Monday afternoon and reach gale force levels Monday night through Tuesday. Have upgraded the gale watch to a gale warning Monday night through Tuesday, although a few gusts close to storm force cannot be ruled out. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hastings/Duda Marine...Hastings/Duda

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