Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 051308 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 908 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:05 AM UPDATE... HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... SFC HIPRES HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVR CWA TONIGHT BUT WL BUILD SOUTH THIS AFTN. CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WL BE THE RULE INTO THE MRNG HRS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IN DEEPER VLY LOCALES JUST BFR SUNRISE. HWVR, DRY LOW-LVLS WL SERVE TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DVLPMNT THIS MRNG WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING BTWN 2-5 DEGREES. AS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE STATE TDA, RETURN FLOW WL DRAW IN WRMR H9 TEMPS THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL TDA. MOST LOCALES WL LKLY SEE 80F UNDER FULL SUN. 590DM RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CNTRD ACRS NY STATE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. H5 HGTS WL VRY SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOWER TDA AND TONIGHT BUT NOT ENUF TO RESULT IN ANY CLDS, PCPN OR COOL TEMPS. DWPTS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 50S STARTING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID WX. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DVLPMT TWD SUN MRNG AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES BUT HV LEFT OUT OF GRIDS FOR THE TIME-BEING WITH THE CAVEAT BEING STRONGER BLYR WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WARM AND HUMID MID SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM BUT WILL BE BREEZY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CREATES A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN WESTERN OR CENTRAL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID. BY WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE PULLING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. OUR ATTENTION LATE IN THE WEAK THEN FOCUSES ON A STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE. SHORT TERM: PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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