Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020416 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1216 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1215 AM UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAS TOUCHED OFF A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT THE CARIBOU WFO JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING STAGE RIGHT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK ACROSS SOMERSET AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS/WIND BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CARRY A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS, LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE WEAK AT ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG BUT THE AIR WILL CARRY A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN IT DID TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN COASTAL AREAS AS A FLOW OF HUMID AIR CONTINUES OVER THE COLDER WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. I HAVE LEANED WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION BUT COOLER ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TUESDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY CONVECTION WISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD POCKET ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROF/COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...FROM MVFR TO VLIFR...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN MAINLY LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG AND IN SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISLOD TSTMS. && .CLIMATE... JULY 2014 TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FINISHED ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE. CARIBOU`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 68.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. CARIBOU`S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 7.06 INCHES IN JULY WHICH WAS 2.98 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. AT BANGOR THE JULY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BANGOR`S PRECIPITATION FOR JULY WAS 6.78 INCHES WHICH WAS 3.32 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KCBW-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN RUNNING STABLE THUS FAR. TELCO WILL BE MONITORING THE CIRCUIT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT REMAINS STABLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/DUDA MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/DUDA CLIMATE...DUDA EQUIPMENT...DUDA

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