Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262236 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 636 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will push east of the region this evening. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night. High pressure will build Friday and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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635 PM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit the latest conditions. Surface analysis showed dewpoints starting to climb as ssw winds taking hold. Satl imagery showed high clouds edging ever so closer to the region w/lower clouds seen back over Quebec. Clouds will continue to fill in this evening w/any rain held at bay through late evening as it looks attm. Latest forecast has this well handled. Will have another update later this evening. Previous Discussion... Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to propagate eastward this evening. A south flow on the backside of the high will result cool marine air moving into coastal zones with some fog developing later in the night. Lows there will be in the mid 50s. Further inland, warm southwesterly winds and increasing clouds will keep lows around 60F. By later in the night, some light shower activity could affect northern and western zones. This precipitation will be with a rather subtle warm front. The warm front will slowly work into the area on Thursday with dew points creeping back into the 60s...a contrast to recent days with dew points in the 40s. This added low level moisture and the warm front will spread a lot of cloud cover over the area on Thursday that will keep highs in the lower to mid 70s. The onshore flow along the coast means highs there will be in the lower 60s with fog burning off, but cloudiness through the day. The warm front will continue to produce some shower activity Thursday morning. The big concern will be later Thursday afternoon in northern zones with the approach of the cold front and cold upper trough. While cloud cover will limit SBCAPE, there is some concern that some later afternoon clearing could generate more SBCAPE than currently being advertised by model guidance. Other measures such as bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates give the hint of some stronger storms with the cold front. Have added enhanced wording for late afternoon into the evening in northern zones. Slow storm motions, a relatively deep warm cloud layer and increasing PWs just ahead of the front also led to mention of some locally heavier precipitation in the northern zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach from the west Thursday Night then move across the region Friday Morning. This system should result in scattered showers Thursday Night then skies are expected to clear Friday Morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Low pressure is then expected to develop to the south of New England Friday Night. The low will then move eastward out into the Atlantic keeping most of the rain associated with the low off-shore Saturday, although there is a chance of some of the showers reaching coastal areas Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to remain over the region Saturday Night and Sunday. A weak area of low pressure is expected to move across northern areas Monday into early tuesday resulting in a few showers while southern portions of the area remain dry. Southern areas could get some showers Wednesday as the front continues to move to the south. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR will be the predominant condition with the exception of sea fog rolling into BHB and Machias later this evening and into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, some MVFR cigs will develop from BGR northward on Thursday morning. Afternoon thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon...mostly north of a line from GNR to HUL. Some storms could be strong. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog is expected to move over the waters tonight into Thursday with more humid air and a warm front. Winds will pick up Thursday with a few gusts towards 20 kts. Seas will build towards 3 feet. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for wind grids. Winds are expected to increase from the northeast Saturday, otherwise winds are expected to be light. For Waves: The primary wave system Saturday will be northeasterly wind wave as low pressure passes to the southeast. For the remainder of the period longer period southeasterly swell (1-2 feet/9 seconds) will dominate under light wind conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone

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