Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 071100 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE...A FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALL IS RAPIDLY SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH, AND UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL. THE SQUALL WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FALL APART BY AROUND 7/8 AM AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE SQUALL IS BEING COVERED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL WITH WHITE-OUTS/WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS WILL SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY FALL. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND THEN SLOWLY FALL. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND 5 TO 15 ABOVE DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NW MAY DROP TO 20 BELOW OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD, BUT DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FAIRLY POTENT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TWO SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE, THE FIRST ONE MONDAY PASSING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SECOND ONE TUESDAY BEING CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR DECENT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING MAINLY DOWNEAST, SPREADING NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PROLONGED SNOW EVENT FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD, AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MIGRATES OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRIER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 10 DOWNEAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF OF VLIFR IN A GUSTY SNOW SQUALL EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM KPQI TO KFVE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 12-13Z THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS AROUND THE MVFR/IFR BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY DOWNEAST AND PROGRESS NORTH TO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 6 AM MON MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 12.3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 14.2 ABOVE AVERAGE AT BANGOR. MONTH TO DATE IT HAS BEEN THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 7TH WARMEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...CB/FOISY MARINE...CB/FOISY CLIMATE...CB

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