Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 252357 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 657 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track south of the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 655 pm update... Steady pcpn has pretty much come to an end except for along ern border and this shud be gone in the next 20-30 min. Light rain is falling along the immediate coast where temps are abv frzg with -fzdz being report in Bangor and expect frzg drizzle to transition north and east drg the ovrngt hrs. Hv massaged wx grids to go dz/fzdz with chc pops drg the rmndr of the nighttime hrs. This chgs vry little regarding ice accums, with trace amnts expected ovr most of the area. No other chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... The warm occlusion continues to weaken as evidenced by METSAT and radar data. Energy is going north with a low near James Bay and associated shortwave moving through northern Quebec. The other energy is moving into the Gulf of Maine with a developing secondary low near the triple point. This secondary will eventually deepen in the Canadian Maritimes on Monday, but that`ll be much too late to affect Maine. A band of snow ahead of the occlusion has reached Piscataquis County and southern Penobscot County and will quickly spread east for the duration of the afternoon. Most accumulations will occur before 8-9PM this evening when the last of the deeper moisture exits the northeast corner of the state. Total accumulations will max out in the advisory area of Piscataquis County around 4 inches. Will leave the existing Winter Weather Advisory in place for now even though snow totals will likely fall short of advisory criteria. Elsewhere, expect 1-3 inches and less on the coast where temperatures will remain above freezing. After the steadier precip ends this evening, a very moist column of air below H700 will be leftover for the remainder of the night to generate freezing drizzle and drizzle into early Monday morning. Thermodynamic profiles do not suggest widespread synoptic scale freezing rain issues. Instead, since the moisture column won`t be much colder than -5C, localized freezing drizzle is a threat overnight. Thus will prefer to handle through Special Weather Statements rather than blanketing the area with advisories. The warmer and moist airmass will also produce areas of fog tonight, mostly in the southern half of the area. Cold air damming will maintain temperatures below freezing tonight except the southern portions of Hancock and Washington counties...as well as south of Bangor in Penobscot County. The fog and low clouds will mix out Monday morning and produce a mild day with highs well into the 40s for much of the forecast area. Did bump up Monday`s wind gusts due to the low level lapse rates and resultant mixing. A few isolated light showers could pop up Monday afternoon due to available H850 moisture and low level instability, but view this as a technicality and will not include pops. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build across the region Monday night through Tuesday with generally partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear skies Downeast. Low pressure tracking through Quebec province will draw a warm front across the region Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers are expected across northern areas Tuesday night, with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers Downeast. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow/rain showers north, with increasing clouds along with a chance of mostly afternoon rain showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will exit across the maritimes Wednesday night, while a possible upper level disturbance crosses the region. Mostly/partly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers are expected Wednesday night. High pressure will ridge north of Maine Thursday through Friday, while low pressure intensifies south of the Gulf of Maine. Uncertainty still exists regarding the exact location and intensity of the low along with the northern edge of the precipitation shield. At this time, the most significant precipitation appears to remain south of the forecast area with a chance of snow/rain Downeast and only a slight chance of snow showers north. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the intensifying low to the south will produce gusty winds across Downeast areas Friday into Saturday, with the strongest winds along the coast. The low will move east Saturday leaving partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers across the region. High pressure will then build toward the region Sunday. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR expected thru most of the overnight, transitioning fm vsbys to cigs acrs the north over the next 1-2 hrs. At BGR and BHB IFR may drop to LIFR between 07z and 12z in fog. -FZDZ expected off and on thru most of the night at all terminals with exception of BHB. Expect cigs and vsbys to improve after 16z with cold frontal passage. Winds become gusty in the afternoon from the WNW to around 20kts. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday night through Tuesday. MVFR conditions are then possible Tuesday night, particularly across the north and mountains. MVFR/IFR conditions are then expected across northern areas Wednesday through early Wednesday night with occasional MVFR conditions Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Thursday, mostly across the north and mountains. Generally expect VFR conditions across northern areas Friday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. Gusty winds will also develop Downeast Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The SCA will continue through the evening. Winds will drop off before midnight. Seas will creep up this evening and it`s possible an SCA for Hazardous Seas might be needed after the current SCA expires. Seas will be around 5 to 6 feet later tonight into Monday. Winds will increase Monday afternoon with a few gusts back up to 25 kts, but can`t foresee needing another SCA. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Norcross Marine...Farrar/MCW/Norcross

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