Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301412 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1012 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1010 AM UPDATE... CDFNT HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL NY AS OF 12Z AND WL TREK EAST THRU THE DAY. UA RAOBS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THESE RMN MEAGER AT BEST AS CONVECTION DVLPS. HI-RES MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH DVLPMNT UNTIL CLOSER TO 19Z ACRS EXTRM NW, THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS BY SVRL HRS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVR THE WATERS TO RMN UNDER SRLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL FRONT CAN SWEEP THRU LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR STORMS THIS AFTN, EXPECTING TO SEE MARGINAL STORMS AT BEST ACRS THE FAR NW AS BEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OUTRUN MAIN LINE, AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO BE ALMOST 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YR THUS ANY STORM THAT DVLPS WL LKLY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH FRZG LVLS SO HIGH IT APPEARS THAT THREAT FOR HAIL IS THE LEAST LKLY WITH ANY STORM. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY ON TAP. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. SPC HAS KEPT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE. THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO HAVE LESSENED FROM WHAT WAS FIRST ANALYZED 24 HRS AGO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE W/HEATING EARLY TODAY. CAPE POTENTIAL OF 700-1000 JOULES ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS FROM 18-02Z W/A NICE JET STREAK AT THE 700-500MB LAYER. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED AND CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z UA RESIDING OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 THIS AFTERNOON W/PWATS OF 1.7+ INCHES AND A DEEP SSW FLOW WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED WILL IT BE. STRONG LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS ARE THERE BUT APPEAR TO OUTRUN THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO, STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS LOOK LIKE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO A SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL THAT WILL ALLOW STABILITY TO HOLD ON LONGER KEEPING DOWN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT. OTHER FACTORS AGAINST ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE TOTAL TOTALS STAY BELOW 50 AND SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINS ABOVE 0 INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND GENERAL TSTM WORDING ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION W/THE MARINE HOLDING ON. FOR TONIGHT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E W/SHOWERS LEFTOVER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE NAM AND WRF MODEL BOTH SHOW A 2ND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ELEVATED CAPE(450 JOULES) IN THIS REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED IN THE LLVLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT SSW FLOW IS SHOWN W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE, FOG POTENTIAL IS THERE. ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM W/MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE FROM KHUL DOWN THROUGH KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHRAS AND TSRAS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TSRAS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT NORTH OF KBGR AND KBHB W/GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT W/IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SSE SWELL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON THE WATERS OF 3-4 FT W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECTING THE SWELL TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE W/THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED FROM SSW AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. KEPT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT. FOG WILL HAMPER NAVIGATION THROUGH THE EVENING W/VSBY BELOW 1 NM. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/DUDA

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