Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202032 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 332 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL WEST OF THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FORMED LAST NIGHT AND WAS VERY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING. STRATUS THAT ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. NEAR THE COAST A WEAK TROUGH AND BIT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND 30 TO 35 DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN DO TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND USE 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL USE THE BURLINGTON SKY TOOL FOR CLOUD COVER. SUPER BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND GMOS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE THAT IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE WHICH WILL TURN TO RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS... THE SUPER BLEND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO 11 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE SIMILAR. WILL REPLACE THE SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURE... WHICH LOOKS TOO WARM... WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO WITH HEAVY SNOW COVER IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECT... HYDRO ISSUES MAY RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE VSBY WILL DROP TO 1 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES IN FLURRIES AND FOG. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. EXPECT WAVES AROUND 3 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING FROM BLEND OF 2 FOOT WIND WAVE AND 1 FOOT INCOMING SWELL. AS SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WAVES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10-12 SECONDS BY EARLY THURSDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND 25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET/ 10-12 SECONDS THROUGH THIS TIDAL PERIOD. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR OVERTOPPING ALONG EXPOSED COASTLINE. WAVE MODEL HAS BACK OFF ON WAVE HEIGHTS A LITTLE DURING LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO SHORTER FETCH DURATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WITH SPRING TIDE... WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE

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