Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 252049 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 449 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING AN ISOLATED EVENING SHOWER TO NORTHWEST AREAS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES EAST SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO THE DAY MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL COMBINE THE NAM...GFS...SREF...MOSG25 AND ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF. THE MOSG25 WAS USED FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERY WEATHER AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND A SMALL SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY SUNNY AND COMFORTABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY THEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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