Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240413 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place over the region overnight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening and stall over the region Sunday night. The front will then lift back north across all of the region on Monday as a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12am Update...Reduced highs for Sunday slightly. Reduced pops for Sunday afternoon and went with just isolated showers and thunderstorms. While there is CAPE and a cold front trigger, CIN is significant and have low confidence in the development of convection. Previous Discussion... Skies will remain mclr across the Rgn going into the eve hrs with hi/mid cldnss from Cntrl QB movg into the N hlf of the FA and low cldnss and patchy fog movg onshore to Downeast areas from the Gulf of ME both late tngt. Ovrngt lows will be quite mild, despite a sig drop from this aftn`s hi temps due to how unseasonably warm hi temps were tdy. Sun will begin ptly to msly sunny across the Rgn aft early morn patchy fog dissipates across Downeast and E Cntrl ptns of the FA. A weak backdoor cold front from Cntrl QB will move Swrd into Nrn ptns of the area by mid aftn working Swrd to the coast by ovrngt as an upper lvl disturbance works ESE ovr the Rgn. With sfc dwpts surging well into the 60s ahead of this front, there will be enough instability for isold to sct tstms mainly along the Ern ME/NB border trailing SW into interior Downeast areas at cnvctv initiation tm with fcst max SREF SBCAPEs are apchg 1000 J/Kg ovr these areas attm. Given only modest mid lvl lapse rates, we will hold off on enhanced tstm wording attm, although it should be noted that there is some mid to upper lvl shear as indicative of of 25 to 35 kt of 0-6Km bulk shear. Prior to tstm development, there should be ample sunshine, spcly ovr Cntrl and interior Downeast areas when combined with downslope winds and record fcst aftn max 925mb of mid 20s deg C, hi temps will likely apch 90 deg ovr low trrn lctns there and well in the 80s ovr low trrn lctns to the N. Coastal Downeast lctns will likely be tempered by a shallow sea breeze circulation. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The summerlike conditions will continue through early next week as a large upper ridge remains parked to to our south and west. A frontal boundary will waver across the state through the period, but don`t expect much more than a few showers or thunderstorms from this each afternoon. Temperatures will be very mild, with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s and 80s. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with some locations approaching 90. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well, so nights will be on the muggy side. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After another muggy night Tuesday, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for later next week. High pressure will briefly build over the area later Thursday through Friday, but showers will threaten again Saturday as the upper trough swings across the area. Hurricane Maria looks to stay well to our south Thursday and Friday, though it may produce long-period swell along the coast. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR is xpctd at the TAF sites tngt thru Sun. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but the better chance for precipitation and possible lowered vis/ceilings will be after 16z Wed as a cold front approaches from the west. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: We finally dropped the SCA for seas ovr our outer MZs with wv hts at the Ern ME Shelf and Jonesport Buoys msly at or below 5 ft, with the trend xpctd to cont to subside a little more ovr the next 6 hrs. We kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst with primary wv pds varying from 8 to 10 sec from residual swell energy from Jose to 12 to 16 sec from long distance swell radiating from Maria. ST cld cvr and areas of marine fog will likely work back toward the coast ovrngt and then back offshore during the late morn and aftn hrs. Lastly, we will likely need another paddle risk beach statement for area beaches for Sun due to the unseasonably warm air temps in close proximity to near shore waters. SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet early next week, so a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3SM at times. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/VJN/MCW Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Foisy/VJN/MCW/Hastings Marine...Foisy/VJN/MCW/Hastings

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