Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011906 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 306 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANY STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS AROUND EARLY TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM LATE AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY DOWNEAST AS A WEAK MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CARRY A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS, LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE WEAK AT ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG BUT THE AIR WILL CARRY A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN IT DID TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN COASTAL AREAS AS A FLOW OF HUMID AIR CONTINUES OVER THE COLDER WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. I HAVE LEANED WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION BUT COOLER ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TUESDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY CONVECTION WISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD POCKET ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROF/COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN ON SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CIGS/FOG. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH SATURDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE WATERS ARE COOLER DUE TO TIDAL MIXING. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN MAINLY LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG AND IN SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISLOD TSTMS. && .CLIMATE... JULY 2014 TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FINISHED ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE. CARIBOU`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 68.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. CARIBOU`S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 7.06 INCHES IN JULY WHICH WAS 2.98 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. AT BANGOR THE JULY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BANGOR`S PRECIPITATION FOR JULY WAS 6.78 INCHES WHICH WAS 3.32 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. && .EQUIPMENT... THE KCBW-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN RUNNING STABLE THUS FAR. TELCO WILL BE MONITORING THE CIRCUIT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT REMAINS STABLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA CLIMATE...DUDA EQUIPMENT...DUDA

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