-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210456
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1256 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE
DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALREADY HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

ORGNL DISC: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CURRENTLY SPANS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY
TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS SECOND
FEATURE WILL DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT,
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AREA WIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS QUEBEC ON
MONDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN MAINE AS THE LOW PASSES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FORM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE 50S, WITH 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT NORTH IN THE FORM OF A
WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY
WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE
STEADIER RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT LATER WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. A STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE...FROM WEST TO EAST...LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY EVENING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AROUND. THE LOW SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE DAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATE AS RIDGING PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS AROUND THE MARITIMES LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BREEZY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING A SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD DAY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4000 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WORST OF THE ICE JAM ALONG THE SAINT JOHN IN THE VICINITY OF
GRAND ISLE AND HAMLIN RELEASED EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER LEVELS
HAVE BEEN DROPPING ON THE SAINT JOHN..AND INDEED ALL THE MAINSTEM
RIVERS...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAMS WILL STAY HIGH AS
SNOWMELT CONTINUES IN EARNEST.

THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS
WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...