-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191304
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
904 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
900 AM UPDATE...A GREAT DAY ON TAP FOR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
SECOND FEATURE IS ALLOWING SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
POP UP ACROSS THE NORTH, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HAVE BLENDED
THE NAM12...GEMREG...SREF ...GFS40 AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF.
FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GMOS. TEMPERATURE GRIDS
INITIALIZED WITH GMOS AND WILL LOW GMOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THIS MORNING AND RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE THURSDAY MORNING. DEW
POINT GRIDS FROM GEMREG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
THROUGH 850MBS WILL BE IN CONTROL. A TROF AT 700-500MBS IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BUT NO RAINFALL. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S TEMPERATURES
WILL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COAST AS A SEA BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE TOWARD THE REGION FROM QUEBEC
ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN. THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
AND DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO 60%.
THE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE W/SB CAPES PROGGED TO
BE 500-800J/KG AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
AROUND 30 KTS AND LIS FCST TO DROP TO -2 TO -4. BASED ON THIS DATA,
DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THE TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
REGIONS COULD VERY WELL SEE UPPER 70S DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A
WSW WIND. LEANED W/A BLEND OF THE GMOS AND ECMWFMOS FOR DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS GETTING IN STORE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE THIS WARMING TREND, A DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY THE LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE TO MOVE OUT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE W/THIS FEATURE AS IT BRINGS IT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE AND DELIVERS A GOOD DOSE OF QPF. THIS IS MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 12 & 18Z WHICH BROUGHT THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION. THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL CONTINUED W/ITS PREVIOUS RUNS OF KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA W/THE BULK OF THE QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND
INTO VT AND NH. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS NYS AND PA. ATTM, LEANED AWAY FROM THE
GFS AS IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
AND THE GMOS DOES NOT SUPPORT THE RAW GFS40. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A
DRIER FCST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY W/MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
BLEND OF THE ECMWFMOS AND THE OFFICIAL FCST WAS USED FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A ECMWFMOS/GMOS BLEND WAS
USED FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS MEANS WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT THE REGION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY.

HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER DEEP SOUTH WILL SLIDE TO OFF THE SE COAST
BY MONDAY W/A RETURN FLOW OF MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BEING
DRAWN NORTHWARD. AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
CHANCE TO HIT THE 80S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MID 80S TUESDAY. THE
CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO DRIFT TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
MONDAY OR TUESDAY BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN NORTH THIS MORNING
IN PATCH FOG THEN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY AS BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
W/THE APCH OF THE FRONT. MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR COULD SET UP FOR
KBHB EARLY FRIDAY W/A SSE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR
WINDS. FOR WAVES: LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH PRIMARY WAVE GROUP COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD
WAVE SYSTEMS. CURRENTLY BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 3-4 FEET/ 8
SECONDS. WNA SPECTRAL SHOWING THIS AS SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP.
SPECTRAL ALSO INDICATING SECONDARY GROUP AT 1FOOT/10 SECONDS BUT
THIS HAS NOT BEEN APPEARING IN SPECTRAL DENSITY OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND MAY BE
REINFORCED BY BRIEF SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NAM/SWAN WHICH APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZED ACCURATELY WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY W/A SWELL. CARRIED THIS WORDING FOR THURSDAY
AND STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF SEAS 3-4FT. WINDS WILL PICK
UP BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APCHG FRONT. USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE WINDS INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOW SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 10-15 KTS BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS AT BEST
THROUGH SUNDAY W/SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT