-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 081358
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
858 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN CREST OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:00 AN UPDATE...ADDED SOME CLOUDS DOWNEAST WHERE SOME PATCHY
ALTOSTRATUS IS MOVING THROUGH. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION`S
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, KEEPING IT COLD AND DRY. NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE NORTH WOODS TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST. SNOW WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW, THOUGH. THESE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN SPITE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
ABOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE TO EASTPORT LINE. NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS, WHICH WILL HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING
BEFORE CLOUDS FILTER IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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OPNL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY WITH THE OUTPUT REGARDING SNFL
MON THRU MON EVE...WITH MSLY SUB ADV SN TOTALS BEING ADVERTISED.
ONE CHG FROM YSTDY ATTM...IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF -FZRA/-PL
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY EVE AS WARMER AIR
INITIALLY ARRIVES ALF OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUSION. SFC TEMPS...HOWEVER...SOON FOLLOW BY MID EVE...WITH
STEADY PRECIP ENDING AS RN...SPCLY OVR COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVE
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS MON WILL REACH HIGHS RIGHT AT MON
EVE...THEN CONT TO RISE WELL INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...FALLING BEHIND
THE OCCLUSION JUST HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUE. GIVEN THE
MARGINALNESS OF 2 TO 4 INCH FCST TOTAL SNFL FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA...IT IS TO SOON TO ISSUE A WNTR WX AV. OF ALL OF THE
MODELS... ONLY THE OPNL GFS MODEL RUN (ALG WITH PRIOR RUNS) GIVES
ENOUGH QPF TO ISSUE AN ADV FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WHILE THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING THE GFS MOS QPF ONLY INDICATES
ABOUT 65 PERCENT OF THE QPF OF THE OPNL GFS. LIQ EQIV SN RATIOS
WERE KEPT CLOSE TO 10:1 WITH 12:1 THE MAX ACROSS THE N...GIVEN
THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE A WARM ADVCN SN EVENT WITH MOST OF THE
LIFT BLO THE DENDRITIC SN CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE.

WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON TUE...ALTHOUGH
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH WINDS ALF IN THE 925-850
MB LAYER. NEVER THE LESS...WE INCREASED W WINDS TO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE THIS UPDATE AND MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE MARKEDLY TUE NGT UNDER FAIR SKIES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER S/WV WILL BRING SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SN SHWRS O
JUST SCT FLURRIES BY WED MORN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HERALDING A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN TO THE REGION WED NGT THRU
THU...WITH BELOW ZERO OVRNGT LOWS WED NGT ACROSS N ME AND DAYTM
HIGHS NOT RISING ABV THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL HDLNS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WED NGT AND THU...WITH WINDS DECREASING BLO
5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE THU NGT. AFTWRDS...THE OPNL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL SOLUTIONS PART WAYS ON THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SIG PRECIP EVENT SAT AND SAT NGT AFT ANOTHER COLD DAY
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF (SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CANGEM) SHOWS ANOTHER
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION WITH LITTLE IF
ANY IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT
HPC SUPPORTS THE COLDER/DRIER SOLUTION...WE KEEP POPS IN THE SLGT
CHC CAT FRI-SAT WITH CONTD COLD WITH SIG BLO AVG TEMPS...WHICH MAY
END UP BEING COLDER IF THE ECMWF/CANGEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR ALL TAF SITES
BY AFTN IN SN AND CONT SO THRU THE EVE HRS IN SN NRN TAF SITES AND
MIXED PRECIP DOWNEAST SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CLGS N AND
VFR DOWNEAST...WHICH SHOULD CONT THRU WED...AFTWRDS...ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25-30 KT WHILE SEAS
ARE 4-6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY SCA SEA AND/OR WIND CONDITIONS ARE
SLATED FOR MOST OF THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH AT TIMES...SHORT
BREAKS OF LESS THAN SCA CONDITIONS. FREEZING SPRAY COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE VERY LATE WED NGT INTO THU NGT AS ARCTIC AIR CROSSES THE
WATERS ON BRISK NW WINDS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 00Z OPNL MODEL AND
MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS
WEIGHTED WITH 35 PERCENT OF THE LAST WV HT FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN