Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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242 FXUS61 KCAR 302249 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 649 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over Quebec overnight and then move east Friday. Low pressure will track well south of the region Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 635 PM Update: Fcst elements modified this update included fcst hrly cld cvr, temps, and dwpts based on sat and sfc obs trends up to erly eve. Lastly, we lowered fcst ovrngt lows ovr Nrn and spcly NW broad rvr vly lctns in anticipation of some shallow decoupling of sfc winds from winds alf late tngt with the apch of the sfc ridge axis toward the ME/QB border. Orgnl Disc: Drier air will continue pushing across the region tonight as high pressure builds over Quebec. The stratocumulus clouds which have been limiting sunshine today should dissipate this evening giving way to a mostly clear sky. Friday will begin mostly sunny although some high clouds will start streaming across Downeast areas from low pressure tracking through the Mid-Atlantic region. The north will remain mostly sunny on Friday. Clouds will increase Downeast, especially during the afternoon. However, dry weather is expected to persist all day as low pressure remains to our southwest over the Mid-Atlantic region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain ridged northeast of the region Friday night through Saturday. At the same time, low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine with a trof extending north from the low. Cloud cover will increase across the region Friday night with a chance of snow late mostly west of a line from northern Somerset county to Hancock county with snow accumulations less than an inch. Uncertainty still exists regarding precipitation totals Saturday. High pressure across the maritimes will provide drier air on east to northeast winds which will slow the eastward advance of precipitation and limit precipitation totals across eastern portions of the forecast area. The best chances of precipitation will be across southwest portions of the forecast area though even there precipitation totals are uncertain. Generally expect precipitation in the form of light snow, though rain could mix with the snow Downeast during the afternoon. Snow totals Saturday are generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches across southwest portions of the forecast area, with slightly greater totals possible across higher terrain areas. Snow totals across eastern portions of the forecast area are expected to be less than an inch. Precipitation will taper to snow showers Saturday night with little additional accumulation expected. An upper level disturbance crossing the region Sunday will keep mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow/rain showers across the north and mountains, with partly/mostly cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Saturday, with near normal level temperatures Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Sunday night through Monday with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Cloud cover will then increase Monday night. Low pressure will track south of the region Tuesday with a chance of snow north and a chance of snow/rain Downeast. High pressure will cross the region Wednesday. Low pressure is expected to approach Thursday though the exact track of the low is uncertain. Precipitation totals and types will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, levels Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday will be dependent on the eventual track of low pressure. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions in mostly clear skies are expected tonight and Friday. SHORT TERM: Conditions should lower to MVFR levels across southwest portions of the forecast area Friday night with VFR conditions across the remainder of the region. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across southwest portions of the forecast area, including Bangor, Saturday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the remainder of the region Saturday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the entire region Saturday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Sunday, with VFR conditions across the remainder of the region. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: We lowered the SCA ovr inner bay/harbor MZ052 based on latest buoy obs showing wind gusts currently arnd 20kt or less. The SCA remains in effect for outer MZs050-051. Orgnl Disc...A SCA will continue across the offshore waters this evening for northwest wind gusting up to 25 kt. Winds should diminish later tonight into Friday as high pressure moves across the north. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are expected later Friday night into early Saturday night. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in snow later Friday night into Saturday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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