Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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251 FXUS61 KCAR 221636 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1235 PM UPDATE: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CROPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL AROOSTOOK AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE SHOWERS,CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND HAIL. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NW MAINE W/THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE QUEBEC REGION. BATCH OF SHOWERS HAVE PULLED NE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME BREAKS ACROSS NW MAINE AND MORE BREAKS BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. PATCHY FOG SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS MORNING W/A LOW CLOUD DECK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE SSE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. AS LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE BORDER THIS MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED W/THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. STAYED W/THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO SOME INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE NAM BEING THE MOST ROBUST W/ITS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE INTERESTING FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM AND MUCAPES 400+ JOULES. MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE QUITE COLD PER THE 00Z UA AND ANY HEATING IN THE LLVLS COULD GET DESTABILIZATION GOING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5500 FT W/SOME MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR(20KTS). THE LATEST RUN OF THE WRF AND HRRR3KM SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD TSTMS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL THROUGH 5 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND LUCKY TO TOP 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING W/COLDER AIR ARRIVING IN EARNEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SE FROM NW QUEBEC TONIGHT W/MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN JUST SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NW MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA MARINE...NORTON/DUDA

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