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686
FXUS61 KCAR 140128
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
928 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east into the Atlantic tonight, as
a weak frontal boundary moves east towards Maine on Monday.
High pressure will build across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Thursday and cross the
area Thursday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Update...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows the low stratus
pushing inland across the Downeast coast and into interior Downeast
areas. This should keep moving inland toward the Upper Penobscot
Valley and southeast Aroostook County later tonight.

Elsewhere generally mid to high level clouds were evident.
Approaching frontal boundary to the west across Quebec province
will slowly push east overnight. A few showers will push into the
North Maine Woods later tonight and across northern areas toward
daybreak.

It will be another warm and muggy night. Lows will range from
the mid 60s across the far north to the cooler upper 50s to
near 60 for Downeast.

Only minor changes were made to overnight forecast at this hour.
Mainly to increase cloud cover Downeast and hit the fog a bit
harder along the coast. Otherwise the rest of the forecast
remains in good shape.

previous discussion
Tomorrow, low pressure system begins to move east into Maine,
bringing some light lift across the region. Moisture advects
into Maine, creating a moist atmospheric profile, leading to
ample cloud cover and potential for another round of
thunderstorms. Best chances for thunder rumbles remain to be in
northern and western Maine tomorrow, predominantly in the North
Woods and northern Aroostook county region. Generally looking
at rain totals under an inch throughout the region tomorrow, but
there could be periods of heavy rainfall given PWAT values over
1.5". High temperatures tomorrow generally in the 70s
throughout the state, with the coast being in the high 60s /
low 70s given the southerly seabreeze.

Monday night, front becomes stationary to our northwest, and
rain showers move off from northwest to southeast. Overnight
lows in the 60s. Potential for some fog development along the
coast again Monday night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Frontal boundary heading south out of Canada during the evening will
wash out as it approaches Tuesday morning. Fog will remain over
Downeast areas and dissipate shortly after sunrise. Strong warm
advection under mostly sunny skies over southern areas. Have
adjusted sky cover to go partly sunny across the north as boundary
is lurking in the area. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm
across the north but temps aloft may be too warm to get anything to
develop other than some flat cu in the afternoon. H8 temps warm to
between +16 to +18 C on Tuesday, leading to above normal temps
in the mid-upper 80s for inland locations.

Tuesday night will see sfc low tracking over central Quebec with
trailing cold front to our north through the end of the short term.
Mins will dip into the low to mid 60s by morning with warm
advection remaining over the area. Skies then begin to cloud up
on Wednesday across the north as next front approaches. Cannot
rule out diurnally driven convection in the afternoon though
warm temps aloft again may put a damper on potential. Maxes on
Wednesday will be warmer than Tuesday as H8 temps approach +20C.
Local research over the past 2 years indicates deterministic
NBM maxes verifies better than probabilities so have retained
NBM on Wednesday for highs, as 50th percentile is running 2
degrees warmer. Given this scenario being more likely apparent
temperatures will be just below the 95 degree threshold on
Wednesday afternoon for the Bangor Region and interior Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Front looks to stall acrs northern half of CWA Wednesday evening
with only low chance for showers over the north Wednesday night.
Deepening lopres is fcst to ride along boundary Thursday morning.
Showers and tstms expected to overspread wrn areas on Thursday
though that will likely depend on where the marine layer sets up on
onshore flow.

Med range guidance differs wrt movement of lopres along the boundary
with GFS moving north of the area while CMC brings initial low over
CWA Thursday with main low moving into ern Canada late Friday night.
12z EC and EC AI models are both similar to latest GFS with taking
low to our north on Friday. Given weak upr lvl trof lingers back to
our west into the early part of the weekend will continue with slgt
chc pops on Saturday. Temps remain seasonable through the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally VFR/MVFR this evening, then
becoming MVFR/IFR overnight with lowering cigs. MVFR/IFR Mon
morning then VFR by afternoon. Isld TSRA possible Monday but
confidence not high enough to include in TAF. VFR/MVFR expected
Mon night. Winds from the S at 5 to 10 kt through Mon night.

KBGR/KBHB: IFR/LIFR conditions persist tonight in low cigs/fog.
IFR early Mon then becoming MVFR. Lower conditions may persist
through Mon vicinity KBHB. Mainly IFR Mon night. S wind 5 to 10
kt through Mon night.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR. Outside chance of MVFR/IFR early at
BHB in patchy fog. WSW 5-10kts, becoming lgt SW Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR with MVFR possible late north in shra/tstm. WSW 5-
10kts.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR north in -shra and over Downeast in fog
late. SW 5-10kts becoming lgt/vrb late

Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR/IFR in shra/tsra. S 5-10kts becoming
WSW late Thu night.

Friday...MVFR in showers. NW 5-15kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight into tomorrow night. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over
the outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters.
Southerly winds at 5-10 kts tonight. Gusts up to 15 kts
possible. Fog over the waters forecast tonight and tomorrow
night. Light rain showers possible Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds below small craft levels through the end of
the week. Visibilities reduced at times through the period in fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Brennan
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Brennan/Melanson/Buster
Marine...Brennan/TWD/Melanson/Buster