Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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217 FXUS61 KCAR 061018 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 618 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LEFT OF THE RAIN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM HOULTON TO TOPSFIELD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEAR TERM MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SET UP OVER THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER ERN QUEBEC... AROUND THIS UPPER LOW. A LOW SE OF JAMES BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO LAKE HURON. A COLD CORE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY...SECOND LOW OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILT INTO MAINE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN MAINE SAT EVNG...AND BY SUN MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE SE FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN QUEBEC. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A COLD CORE LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURS MRNG PRODUCING SCT SHWRS FOR NRN AND CNTRL MAINE. THE LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT EAST EARLY THURS AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FRI EVNG...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG...AND INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBGR/KBHB LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. | SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT...WITH WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FOR BGR AND BHB. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH DECREASING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY REMAINING ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR IN SHOWERS SUN MRNG...THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS SUN AFTERNOON. BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON MNRG...THEN VFR MON AFTERNOON/EVNG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MAINLY FOR SEAS. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WNDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOME MINOR SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT AND NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...TD SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...TD/NORTON MARINE...TD/NORTON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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