Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011426 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1025 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION POP UP ON RADAR, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THEREFORE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD THUNDER TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OTHERWISE, CHANGES WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3 TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL. WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE 3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA

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