Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241831 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 231 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT TIME. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEARLY 30 KT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...NORTON/HASTINGS MARINE...NORTON/HASTINGS

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