Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 302249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017
High pressure will crest over Quebec overnight and then move
east Friday. Low pressure will track well south of the region
Friday night and Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
635 PM Update: Fcst elements modified this update included fcst
hrly cld cvr, temps, and dwpts based on sat and sfc obs trends
up to erly eve. Lastly, we lowered fcst ovrngt lows ovr Nrn and
spcly NW broad rvr vly lctns in anticipation of some shallow
decoupling of sfc winds from winds alf late tngt with the apch
of the sfc ridge axis toward the ME/QB border.
Orgnl Disc: Drier air will continue pushing across the region
tonight as high pressure builds over Quebec. The stratocumulus
clouds which have been limiting sunshine today should dissipate
this evening giving way to a mostly clear sky. Friday will begin
mostly sunny although some high clouds will start streaming
across Downeast areas from low pressure tracking through the
Mid-Atlantic region. The north will remain mostly sunny on
Friday. Clouds will increase Downeast, especially during the
afternoon. However, dry weather is expected to persist all day
as low pressure remains to our southwest over the Mid-Atlantic
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain ridged northeast of the region Friday
night through Saturday. At the same time, low pressure will
track south of the Gulf of Maine with a trof extending north
from the low. Cloud cover will increase across the region
Friday night with a chance of snow late mostly west of a line
from northern Somerset county to Hancock county with snow
accumulations less than an inch. Uncertainty still exists
regarding precipitation totals Saturday. High pressure across
the maritimes will provide drier air on east to northeast winds
which will slow the eastward advance of precipitation and limit
precipitation totals across eastern portions of the forecast
area. The best chances of precipitation will be across
southwest portions of the forecast area though even there
precipitation totals are uncertain. Generally expect
precipitation in the form of light snow, though rain could mix
with the snow Downeast during the afternoon. Snow totals
Saturday are generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches
across southwest portions of the forecast area, with slightly
greater totals possible across higher terrain areas. Snow
totals across eastern portions of the forecast area are expected
to be less than an inch. Precipitation will taper to snow
showers Saturday night with little additional accumulation
expected. An upper level disturbance crossing the region Sunday
will keep mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow/rain
showers across the north and mountains, with partly/mostly
cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Saturday, with near
normal level temperatures Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Sunday night through Monday
with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Cloud cover will then
increase Monday night. Low pressure will track south of the
region Tuesday with a chance of snow north and a chance of
snow/rain Downeast. High pressure will cross the region
Wednesday. Low pressure is expected to approach Thursday though
the exact track of the low is uncertain. Precipitation totals
and types will be dependent on the eventual track of the low.
Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below
normal, levels Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday
will be dependent on the eventual track of low pressure.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions in mostly clear skies are expected
tonight and Friday.
SHORT TERM: Conditions should lower to MVFR levels across
southwest portions of the forecast area Friday night with VFR
conditions across the remainder of the region. MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected across southwest portions of the
forecast area, including Bangor, Saturday. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the remainder of the region
Saturday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the
entire region Saturday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across the north and mountains Sunday, with VFR
conditions across the remainder of the region. VFR conditions
are expected across the entire region Sunday night into Monday.
NEAR TERM: We lowered the SCA ovr inner bay/harbor MZ052 based
on latest buoy obs showing wind gusts currently arnd 20kt or
less. The SCA remains in effect for outer MZs050-051.
Orgnl Disc...A SCA will continue across the offshore waters
this evening for northwest wind gusting up to 25 kt. Winds
should diminish later tonight into Friday as high pressure moves
across the north.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are expected
later Friday night into early Saturday night. Conditions are
expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday.
Visibilities will be reduced in snow later Friday night into
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.