Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280952 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 452 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING...DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TAPER TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. A STEADIER RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING THEN TAPER TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT KEEPING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM CLEARLY SHOW THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES NOT. COULD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH THE GFS AND MANUALLY INCREASE POPS AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE CONSENSUS RAW TO BETTER HANDLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WILL NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURE LOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO GENERATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM: EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS KFVE... KCAR...KPQI AND KHUL MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE MONDAY THEN GO OFF-SHORE TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL REMAINING AS A SECONDARY WAVE GROUP INTO TUESDAY. AN OFF-SHORE FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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