Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201121 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 621 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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621 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWING UP A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. IN FACT THE HRRR AND RUC NOW HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND TO BUMP UP THE POPS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 12Z FRI. SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW IS TRANSFERRING TO THE MAINE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINICZONE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT OUT INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE MORNING. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WHICH COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY AND DROP AN INCH OF SNOW. STREAMERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OFF THE ST LAWRENCE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EVEN STILL, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE COAST 15 TO 20. FOR SATURDAY...THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE BACK OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A STREAM OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT THERE`S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. REGARDLESS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WE`LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE, WITH JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND WEST. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF 6 AM...BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OF SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. HOWEVER, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURN FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WE`LL SE A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE WEEKEND. && .EQUIPMENT...
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THE KCBW (HODGDON, MAINE) RADAR WENT DOWN AROUND 0100 EST THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS EQUIPMENT...CB

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