Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 260243 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 943 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
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`VE SEEN TODAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH, AND IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. THE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY WHILE OCCLUDING AND BEING CAPTURED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DOWNEAST...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AREAS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOWS WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 18 TO 24 INCHES DOWNEAST...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...TO 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY MESO-SCALE SNOW BANDS LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE MODEST AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHICH MAY GET SOME RAIN OR SLEET MIXING IN DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS MEANS THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FROM NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE LIKELY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE WHERE SNOW STREAMERS COMING OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH 00Z. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED SINCE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 35 KTS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE UPCOMING SYSTEM; THIS IS WHAT WE WANT PEOPLE TO FOCUS ON. HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT SINCE MODERATE ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.