Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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675 FXUS61 KCAR 290537 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 137 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move into the area overnight and then stall through Monday. An occluded front from the west will cross the region later Monday night with unsettled conditions continuing behind this front through midweek.
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120 AM Update... Sfc analysis had front boundary extending from ne Aroostook County back into n Somerset County. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the latest conditions w/readings in the 50s across northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and downeast areas were in the 40s. Adjusted the overnight mins a bit especially downeast as temps were already in the low/mid 40s. Some low clouds were moving into downeast area and the Bangor region w/a s wind per the latest obs and satl imagery. This will help to halt a further drop in temps overnight. The radar showed some light showers along and north of the boundary. Decided to pull back the pops further to cover the far n and w. Original Discussion... Expect showers and isolated thunder over northern areas tonight as a cold front stalls. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy tonight into Monday across southern areas. The front will move northward into Canada Monday Morning. An occluded front will approach from the southwest later in the day Monday with more showers breaking out ahead of this front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The first round of shwrs will traverse across the FA ahead of a weak occluded front Mon ngt, with fcst rnfl amts durg this pd a quarter inch or less and max PoPs about 80 percent attm. After a relative break in shwrs erly Tue morn, another round of shwrs with isolated Tstms looks like a good bet for Tue aftn into erly eve with max PoPs in the high likely range as spokes of upper lvl energy rotate arnd a broad upper low ovr Ont prov. These shwrs will move E/dissipate by ovrngt Tue, leaving late ngt patchy fog. Otherwise, the same process will begin on Wed with another s/wv movg WSW to ENE from the Great lks as the upper low remains ovr Ont prov. Shwrs will increase again in the aftn with the addition of day tm htg to destabilize the lower to mid atmosphere. This time, there appears to be a little more of MUCAPE upwards to arnd 500J/KG for a better chc of tstms in the aftn into erly eve with max PoPs in the likely range. Shwrs and any tstms will weaken and lessen in cvrg again ovrngt Wed. Temps in the short term will be below avg for hi temps on Tue but then recovering closer to normal hi temps on Wed with a little more in the way of morn sunshine xpctd this day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The overall LW pattern will feature weakly positive PNA and NAO teleconnection forcing ovr NA, which will keep upper lvl troffing ovr the Ern U.S. alg with contd unsettled conditions for the late weekend for our Rgn with perhaps a break in shwrs for the Rgn by Sun. Until then, there will be a chc of shwrs every aftn and erly eve from Thu thru Sat, with isold thunder possible Thu aftn/erly eve. Despite day tm cld cvr and shwrs spcly aftn, most of the really cool llvl air will remain in Cntrl Can, so temps will be close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions tonight and Monday, with some isolated showers also to be dodged north of KHUL through tonight, and. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly VFR all TAF sites, with intervals of MVFR clgs and vsbys in heavier shwrs and patchy late ngt IFR clgs Mon ngt, Tue ngt and perhaps Wed ngt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds. For waves: Currently a southerly swell is the primary wave system (2-3 feet/8-9 seconds). With light winds expected this wave group will continue to be the primary wave group through tonight. During the day Monday expect easterly winds to increase in speed producing a secondary wave system. Will use the Nearshore prediction system for wave grids. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated attm, with winds and wv hts msly below SCA criteria. Went with about 85% of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts this update, with wv pds msly between 5 to 7 secs. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.