Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201423 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 923 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track north of Maine today drawing a cold front across the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:23 am update: A warm front has pushed east in New Brunswick taking what little bit of snow that fell across northern areas with it. A passing snow shower or some flurries are possible, with a better chance across northern and western zones late in the day as a cold front approaches the area. The front will not cross the area until tonight. Today will be an unseasonably mild day in the warm sector with highs 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Made some tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest conditions, radar and satellite pictures, and near term models. Previous Discussion... Low pressure tracking north of Maine will draw a warm front across the region this morning, with a cold front crossing the region tonight. Snow will occur across northern areas this morning, with total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across northern Aroostook county. Snow accumulations across the remainder of northern Maine are expected to be an inch or less. Lesser precipitation chances will exist southward across the remainder of the forecast area tapering to a slight chance Downeast. Based on critical thicknesses, expect precipitation across central and Downeast areas could be in the form of a very light wintry mix with little or no snow or ice accumulation. Could still have a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains this afternoon in advance of the approaching cold front, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Southwest/west winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph across the region today. Will have a chance of snow showers with the cold front tonight mostly across the north and mountains. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds across northern areas in the wake of the cold front tonight with partly cloudy skies Downeast. High temperatures today will range from the mid 30s north, to around 40 interior Downeast with lower 40s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from 10 to 15 north, to the lower to mid 20s interior Downeast with mid to upper 20s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure is expected to pass to the south of New England Sunday with dry conditions expected. Clouds are then expected to increase Sunday night as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Expect cloudy conditions Monday as intense low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Snow is then expected to spread across the region from southwest to northeast Monday night. Expect precipitation to be mostly in the form of snow through Monday night. Will use a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF for QPF and the snow ratio blender for snow amounts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure is expected to move northeast from the Great Lakes Tuesday and pass to the west of the forecast area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow warmer air to move into the region at all levels resulting in the snow changing to mixed precipitation and rain. Will use the precipitation type from thickness run on a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF for Precip. Type. Colder air will return to the region Wednesday in the northwest flow behind the low. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday and crest over the area Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR at times across northern areas this morning, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are then possible across the north and mountains this afternoon through early tonight, with VFR conditions Downeast. Southwest/west winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph across the region today. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. IFR conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters today through tonight. Visibilities could be locally reduced in any rain or light wintry mix early this morning. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained wind speed. For waves: For Sunday and Monday expect subsiding southerly long period swell with a northeasterly wind wave developing Monday. A strong southeasterly fetch is expected to develop Tuesday as low pressure passes to the west of New England with seas build to 15 feet/9-10 seconds. Will use NWPS to initialize waves. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone

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