Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 250414
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1214 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
High pressure will build across northern Maine and the maritimes
overnight. Low pressure will approach from the south Tuesday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --12:14 AM Update...The biggest forecast challenge overnight is
an area of low clouds that shows up on the satellite fog channel
just off the Downeast coast. The low clouds/fog have not moved
into Bar Harbor, but the visibility has dropped to less than one
quarter of a mile at the Eastern Maine Self. The clouds appear
to be mostly affecting the coastal waters and the outer islands,
and as of midnight are not showing much in the way of
additional advancement toward the mainland. Other than some
minor tweaks based on the midnight observations and the latest
satellite trends no significant updates are planned at this
Clouds will increase from south to north on Tuesday ahead of
low pressure approaching from the southwest. A bit of light rain
may spread into the Downeast region late in the afternoon. The
north should remain dry all day with only a slight chance for
some spotty light rain by sundown. Highs Tuesday are expected to
be in the low to mid 50s across the region.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region
Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic
States Wednesday then move to the north during the day. This
system is expected to produce rain across the state during the
day Wednesday with the highest amounts of rainfall across the
coast and interior Downeast. The low will then weaken as it
moves to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. Will use a
model consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and
cross the region late Friday. This system is expected to result
in showers for Friday into Saturday. High pressure will approach
from the northwest Sunday. Intense low pressure system will
move northward into the Great Lakes Monday producing over-
running precipitation Monday.
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across most of the
region overnight through much of Tuesday. However, an area of
low clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine is slowly moving toward
the Downeast coast which could clip KBHB and the Downeast coast
overnight with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR conditions should then
begin to develop Bangor and Downeast later Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are generally expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels overnight through much of Tuesday.
However, wind gusts could begin to approach small craft advisory
levels later Tuesday. Have included areas of fog across the
waters overnight into early Tuesday with this update which will
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves:
Expect a strong southerly fetch to develop off the Mid Atlantic
States Tuesday Night and extend well to the east into the
Atlantic as low pressure develops off the east coast. This fetch
will extend northward into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday and
persist into Thursday. Wave heights are expected to build to a
maximum of 9 feet/10 seconds Wednesday Night. The southeasterly
fetch will end on Thursday as winds shift, however long period
swell is expected to persist into Saturday due to the long
length of the fetch area. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction
System (NWPS) to populate grids through Thursday then transition
to the Wave Watch III.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday