Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281635 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1235 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HUMIDITY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1235 PM UPDATE...SPC COORDINATED W/SURROUNDING WFOS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS DOWN TO 10 K FT. SHEAR AT 30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER W/LOWER LCLS AND SOME TURNING IN THE LLVLS. THIS COULD SUGGEST ROTATION W/ANY STORMS. MIDNIGHT CREW HAS THINGS SET WELL W/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIT THINGS A BIT HARDER. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND LOOKS TO DO SO IN 2 PIECES. THE PRIMARY FRONT WILL CROSS INTO CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW SOON AFTER. THIS PRIMARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS MOISTURE GRADIENT. SBCAPES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE WATERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SBCAPES WILL BE MODEST, GENERALLY 500-800 J/KG. THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE. MEANWHILE, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EITHER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COASTAL REGIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT COOLER, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. EXPECT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH, MAKING FOR A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE JUST A BIT SLOWER TO DRY OUT, BUT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S STILL AREN`T TOO BAD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM FROM YSTDY IN SHOWING A BRIEF DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND FOR FRI UNDER SFC HI PRES AND MSLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU EVE...THEN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTWRDS...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN DISAGREE ABOUT THE ARRIVAL TMG AND PASSAGE TMG OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN THRU QB PROV FOR THE LATE SAT INTO SUN MORN PTN OF THE FCST. IT WAS HOPED THE MODELS WOULD BRIDGE THESE DIFFERENCES...BUT IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS EVEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN YSTDY IN BRINGING MORE CLDNSS AND ERLY SHWRS AND TSTMS TO SPCLY THE NW HLF OF THE FA BY ERLY TO MID AFTN SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF (AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS) KEEP SHWRS AND TSTMS FROM REACHING OUR FA UNTIL DECIDELY AFT DARK. FOR NOW...WE BLEND THE TMG OF ONSET BETWEEN THE MODELS... WHICH BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW BY MID AFTN AND TO THE NE DURG LATE AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MSLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A GOOD PTN IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY ON SAT. GIVEN CLDNSS/ SHWR-TSTM ARRIVAL UNCERTAINTY SPCLY ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN...WE LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS A DEG OR TWO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH THE FASTER TMG OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE GFS...FCST SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE AFTN INTO EVE PD SAT...SO WE MENTION TSTMS DURING THIS TM...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHWRS AND ANY REMAINING TSTMS WILL MOVE SWRD THRU THE NGT SAT NGT...REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SAT NGT. WITHE BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN TO DOWNEAST MAINE. AFT ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES OF AVG BASIN WIDE RNFL...THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ENDS SHWRS N TO S ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA SUN MORN AND THE S HLF SUN AFTN...FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST PRTL CLRG SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT FOR EACH HLF RESPECTFULLY. HI TEMPS SUN WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE N...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS...WHERE PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW RVR VLY AREAS BY DAYBREAK MON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS XPCTD ON MON...THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUE INTO WED UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS A LARGE SFC HI PRES MOVES ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TO SE OF THE MARITIMES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR FRI THRU SAT ALL TAF SITES...THEN CLGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FROM N TO S ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH SHWRS SAT NGT...CONTG OVR DOWNEAST SITES SUN AS NRN TAF SITES RECOVER BACK TO VFR. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND/OR PATCHY FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN. ALL SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY SUN NGT AND CONT SO THRU MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING ONCE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS THRU FRI EVE...WITH SW WINDS AND WV HTS INCREASING LATE FRI NGT AND SAT MORN TO POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVR THE OUTER MZS SAT AFT THRU SAT NIGHT. AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BLO SCA CONDITIONS ON SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE HTS FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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