Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250414 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1214 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across northern Maine and the maritimes overnight. Low pressure will approach from the south Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12:14 AM Update...The biggest forecast challenge overnight is an area of low clouds that shows up on the satellite fog channel just off the Downeast coast. The low clouds/fog have not moved into Bar Harbor, but the visibility has dropped to less than one quarter of a mile at the Eastern Maine Self. The clouds appear to be mostly affecting the coastal waters and the outer islands, and as of midnight are not showing much in the way of additional advancement toward the mainland. Other than some minor tweaks based on the midnight observations and the latest satellite trends no significant updates are planned at this time. Previous Discussion... Clouds will increase from south to north on Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the southwest. A bit of light rain may spread into the Downeast region late in the afternoon. The north should remain dry all day with only a slight chance for some spotty light rain by sundown. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 50s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic States Wednesday then move to the north during the day. This system is expected to produce rain across the state during the day Wednesday with the highest amounts of rainfall across the coast and interior Downeast. The low will then weaken as it moves to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. Will use a model consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and cross the region late Friday. This system is expected to result in showers for Friday into Saturday. High pressure will approach from the northwest Sunday. Intense low pressure system will move northward into the Great Lakes Monday producing over- running precipitation Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across most of the region overnight through much of Tuesday. However, an area of low clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine is slowly moving toward the Downeast coast which could clip KBHB and the Downeast coast overnight with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR conditions should then begin to develop Bangor and Downeast later Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are generally expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through much of Tuesday. However, wind gusts could begin to approach small craft advisory levels later Tuesday. Have included areas of fog across the waters overnight into early Tuesday with this update which will reduce visibilities. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves: Expect a strong southerly fetch to develop off the Mid Atlantic States Tuesday Night and extend well to the east into the Atlantic as low pressure develops off the east coast. This fetch will extend northward into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday and persist into Thursday. Wave heights are expected to build to a maximum of 9 feet/10 seconds Wednesday Night. The southeasterly fetch will end on Thursday as winds shift, however long period swell is expected to persist into Saturday due to the long length of the fetch area. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to populate grids through Thursday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Mignone Marine...Bloomer/CB/Mignone

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