Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311620 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1220 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN. THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN... RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG. OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN) AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS NRN TAF SITES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN

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