Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021736 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 136 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 135 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS HV BEGUN TO DVLP NORTH OF A GREENVILLE-DANFORTH LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN SOUTH OF THIS LINE THIS AFTN WITH ONLY ISOLD-SCTD PCPN TO THE NORTH AS WK S/WV HEADS UP INTO CANADA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500-1000 J ACRS THE CWA THUS WL CONT WITH ISOLD THUNDER MENTION TDA. QUICK UPDATE TO T/TD VALUES TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DOWN EAST, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE WEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME WITH THE LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADD GUSTY WIND/SMALL HAIL FOR MON PM/EVE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE WORDING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 00Z WED WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z THU AND MOVE INTO THE NW ATLANTIC BY THU PM. A TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND BACK INTO QUEBEC INTO SAT. THIS WILL PUT NORTHERN MAINE IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID REGIME FOR MID-LATE WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION WED IT WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF THE CROWN OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WED- FRI, AND NEAR NORMAL SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED NORTH OF BHB THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP LATE MON AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY BUT NOT ENUF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 16Z MON WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS. SHORT TERM: VFR MOST OF THE DAY MON WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR FOR TUE- FRI...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE AFTERNOON, AND AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WED IN POCKETS OF STRATOCU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WAVES HAVE COME UP TO AROUND 4.5 FEET AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE, HOWEVER WIND/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM LATER IN THE DAY WED THROUGH FRI. && .CLIMATE... THIS PAST JULY ENDED AS THE 8TH DRIEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR WITH ONLY 1.16" OF RAIN. YEAR TO DATE IT IS STILL THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 6TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/CB MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/CB CLIMATE...

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