Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 092153 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 453 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An Arctic front will move through the region this evening. The first Arctic air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. Low pressure will approach Sunday night then cross the region Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The season`s first Arctic air mass will pour into the area tonight with temperatures steadily dropping until early Saturday. Steep low level lapse rates, a tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft will generate very windy conditions tonight with gusts to 30-35 mph...especially this evening. This instabilty and moisture under H850 will generate snow showers though this evening. By later in the night, most shower activity will be confined to the Saint John Valley. Wind chills will drop below zero across the entire area tonight and stay below zero into Saturday morning. Actual temperatures will fall to the low single digits north tonight and low teens for Bangor and the Down East region. The winds continue Saturday with gusts to 25 mph producing the low wind chills. Highs will only reach around 12F for the Crown of Maine and upper teens to lower 20s for Bangor and the Down East region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will cross the region Saturday night through Sunday. Expect partly cloudy skies north, with mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area Saturday night. Expect partly sunny skies north, with mostly/partly sunny skies across the remainder of the forecast area Sunday. High pressure moves east Sunday night, while low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes draws a warm front toward southern New England. Cloud cover will increase across the region Sunday night. Overrunning snow will then begin to develop across mostly Downeast and west-central portions of the region later Sunday night with light accumulations possible. The Great Lakes low will weaken while approaching Monday, while a secondary low begins to develop to the east along the warm front. Uncertainty still exists regarding whether the secondary low develops near coast or across southern portions of the Gulf of Maine. A track closer to the coast would bring more significant precipitation to the region, though could also bring warmer air toward the coast which could allow a snow/rain mix to develop across the Bangor and Downeast regions. A more southerly track would keep temperatures colder, though would produce less precipitation particularly across northern areas. Additional snow accumulations are expected Monday, though amounts are uncertain. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Sunday/Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Expect the winter storm to depart Mon night, with some snow showers lingering up north after sunrise Tues. Mod to potentially hvy snow Mon night will be mostly for the central and northern CWA, though model differences in strength/position of the trailing trof limit certainly on placement of heavier amounts. The CMC is the most progressive on the Low/trof, and wld push most snow out soon after 00z Tue. However, looking at other models gives confidence on snow lingering after 00z Tue, with the GFS and NAM having more snow than the ECMWF. Moving on, models remain very scattered on solutions for a mid- week system, both in terms of timing and precip amount potential. As such, kept my POPs to Chance, capped at 50%, but spread that between 12z Wed and 12z Thu. As of now, the temp fcst would yield snow for all but the coastal zones for the duration of any event. Operational GFS wld give more snow for the interior Downeast and Bangor metro, with less snow up north. However, GEFS plumes reveal a wider variation in the potential precip and temp solutions, with some warmer solutions bringing less snow Downeast and more up north. Tighter timing and higher certainty on precip type will hopefully be possible in the near future. ECMWF and GFS both pointing toward another arctic air intrusion late next week, with temps well below normal.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Mostly MVFR cigs north of HUL until Saturday afternoon. The exception could be IFR vis in snow showers at FVE tonight. For BGR and BHB, a period of MVFR cigs is possible late tonight, but otherwise, it will be VFR. Gusty winds will be a factor...particularly tonight with NW gusts over 30 kts at times. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Saturday night through early Sunday night. Conditions will begin to lower to MVFR levels later Sunday night, particularly across the Bangor and Downeast region. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region Monday into Monday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible mostly across the north and mountains Tuesday. Conditions Wednesday will be dependent on whether low pressure impacts the region which remains uncertain at this time.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory will carry on through the period with seas 5 to 8 feet and a few gusts even reaching gale criteria of 35 kts. Since sustained winds over 35 kts are not expected, will not convert to a gale warning. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected early Saturday night. Could also have light freezing spray Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft advisory level conditions are then expected Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in snow and rain later Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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