Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180116 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 916 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and early Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure from the Ohio valley will cross the region later Wednesday...then settle south of the region for the late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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9:16 PM Update...A deck of mid level clouds covers much of northern and western Maine, with a mainly clear sky Downeast. A light rain shower was observed at Frenchville as of 9 pm, and a small area of showers will affect northeast Aroostook County over the next hour or so. Regional radars and observations indicate a few more showers with a cold front back across Quebec that may affect parts of northern Maine overnight, but any QPF is expected to be light and on the order of less than a tenth of an inch. Made some minor adjustments to mainly the PoPs based mostly on the latest observations and radar trends. Previous discussion... Initial cld cvr ahd of the s/wv complex arriving from Cntrl Can has eroded somewhat as it crossed over int NW ME from QB, but now shows signs of holding ovc ovr NW ME durg the mid aftn. This cld cvr will cont to cross the rest of Nrn ME by erly eve. Latest model guidance is little further S with the lift and cld cvr ovrngt for our FA than shown ystdy by the models for this tm. Subsequently, we went with chc PoPs across the NW and far NE and slgt chc across N Cntrl areas. Models indicate two axises of moisture, the first for erly to mid eve which will serve to moisten the mid to lower atmosphere with little if any measurable rnfl with shwrs and then a second axis for the late ovrngt hrs where the potential of lgt measurable rnfl with sct shwrs will be higher. All shwrs and most of the cld cvr will move E of the Rgn durg the erly morn hrs allowing for some decoupling of winds and a narrow window of radiational cooling for msly broad NW vly lctns. Otherwise, ovrngt lows will be sig milder across the Rgn due to cld cvr and a SW breeze, which will become NW by erly Wed morn as a weak cold front crosses the Area behind the passage of the upper s/wv-trof axis. Whats left of any cool air behind this cold front will be quickly moderating during the day Wed as weak cool llvl advcn becomes neutral to weak warm advcn by Wed aftn under msly sunny skies, allowing aftn hi temps to reach a few deg warmer than this current aftn with a Wrly breeze.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm front lifts north of the area Wednesday evening. Expect mainly clear skies Wednesday night. Light south winds will keep overnight lows milder than the previous few nights. Thursday is mainly dry and unseasonably warm ahead of an approaching cold front from Quebec. Southwest winds in advance of the approaching front will result in afternoon high temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year! A few showers could make their way into the far northwest toward sunset. The cold front will cross the region Thursday night, with a few showers expected north of the Katahdin region. The best chance for measurable will be across the far north and Saint John Valley, where best dynamics will exist with the approaching upper trof. Otherwise, it will remain dry down east. Friday is shaping up as a dry in the wake of the cold front, as high pressure builds toward the region from the west. Forecast soundings indicating a rather deep mixed layer during the day which will lead gusty northwest winds. Friday will be a cooler day, with highs across the north ranging from the low to mid 50s and upper 50s to lower 60s central and down east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry and unseasonably mild weather can be expected through the weekend as high pressure builds toward the region. The high will move east of the mid atlantic region later in the weekend with a milder return flow setting up, with above normal temperatures expected into the beginning of next week. The next chance for any measurable rain will come late Monday and Tuesday as the next trof approaches the region. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR across the TAF sites thru Wed with a pd of MVFR clgs possible across Nrn TAF sites ovrngt associated with sct rn shwrs, spcly KFVE. SHORT TERM: VFR through the period outside of any brief MVFR conditions across the northern terminals Thursday night in any showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No chgs to the current SCA tm frame for our outer MZs050-051, with winds/seas xpctd to reach SCA conditions by mdngt with a short SW wind fetch then cont into Wed morn. Winds and seas will be just below SCA thresholds ovr the inner bay/harbor MZ052. All of our waters will then be below SCA as winds turn offshore and diminish somewhat and wvs slowly subside Thu aftn. Kept close to blended WW3/NWPS wv ht guidance with primary wv pds ranging initially arnd 10 sec in swell this eve to arnd 5 to 7 sec with a shorter wind fetch ovrngt into Wed. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could reach small craft advisory levels Thursday and Thursday night in the southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. && .CLIMATE... Month to date it has been the 3rd warmest October at Caribou, and the 4th warmest at Bangor. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/VJN Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/VJN/Duda Marine...CB/VJN/Duda Climate...CB

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