Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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010 FXUS61 KCAR 272229 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 629 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. High pressure will briefly build into the area, followed by a secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 630 PM Update... Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the latest conditions showing mild & damp conditions across the region. Satl imagery had lots of low clouds hanging over the region w/strong inversion in place. Some fog showing up especially across the St. John Valley and now along the coast as BHB(Bar Harbor) down to 1/4SM. Kept the fog in the forecast through the night. Radar loop showing some light returns moving n w/deep sse flow in place through 10k ft. Stayed w/the daycrew`s thinking of light rain and drizzle for tonight into Friday morning. Previous Discussion... A moist maritime low level flow under a strong subsidence inversion will continue to dominate area weather with low clouds this evening. The weakening cut-off low spinning well south of the Gulf of Maine is continuing to stream Atlantic moisture northward with light rain and drizzle...mostly in upslope areas and along the coast. Drizzle and fog will become more widespread tonight as temperatures cool towards the relatively high dew points over the area. Expect lows to drop towards 50F with some mid to upper 40s on the coast due to the onshore flow. Fog, light rain and drizzle remain the predominant conditions under the persistent inversion during Friday morning, but a weakening cold front will cross during the afternoon and finally break up the inversion with drier continental air by Friday evening. Changed the type of precipitation to showers for the afternoon, but do not expect any thunderstorm activity as SB-CAPE doesn`t make it into the forecast area and elevated CAPE looks weak. Furthermore, fog and stratus will tend to linger towards the coast all day as the inversion won`t break there until later Friday night. Highs on Friday look warmer for most locations except the coastal zones. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A weak high pressure ridge will build into the area behind a cold frontal system that moved over New Brunswick. A low moving through the IN/IL will move to southwestern Maine Saturday morning. Saturday evening the low will move east if the area and higher pressure will briefly build back in across the area. A warm front will move into southwest Maine early Sunday afternoon, then into central Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement. An active period of weather with lows and fronts tracking through the area every 12 hrs or so. A warm frontal system moves into southwest Maine at the start of the period, and spread across the state by Monday morning. The warm front will clear the area Monday evening, and the associated cold front will move into northwest Maine. The cold front will move east of the area Tuesday morning, Higher pressure will build into southern Maine. A filling low over southwestern Quebec, will move east across northern Maine Tuesday evening through Thursday morning bringing showers to the area. High pressure will build into the area, but will be moved east by the end of the period as another frontal system pushes into southwest Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR will continue at higher terrain terminals such as GNR and FVE through Friday morning. Other terminals that are currently MVFR will slowly return to IFR and LIFR this evening. By morning, all sites are expected to be LIFR to VLIFR due to fog and low clouds, but will recover to MVFR by afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR early in HUL as a few scatter shower clear the area, otherwise VFR all sites. VFR conditions over night, increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings as a low moves into the area Saturday morning. MVFR conditions in rain late morning Sunday through early evening, then clearing. VFR conditions Saturday evening through early afternoon Sunday. A warm front will move into central Maine bringing conditons down to MVFR by afternoon, the frontal system will stall over central Maine then move north as a warm front. MVFR conditions will remain in BHB, BGR, and HUL, PQI, CAR, and FVE will fall to IFR in rain Monday afternoon. IFR conditions will spread to all sites early Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through the state. MVFR BHB, and BGR Tuesday morning, then to other sites Tuesday afternoon. Wrap around precipitation around a filling low pressure system over eastern Quebec will affect the area through the end of the period keeping Maine in MVFR to IFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog and long period south swell continue to be the big issues on the waters tonight into Friday. The long period swell should diminish enough to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas by the advertised timeframe. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Norton Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Norton

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