Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160142 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 942 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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915 PM UPDATE: BASED ON RAW MODEL TEMP OUTPUT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT INTO WED MORN...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPCLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA. OBS FROM QB PROV AND NW NEW ENG SUPPORT THIS TREND. ALSO...A FEW LCTNS ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PD OF SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION TO SN AS LLVL COLD AIR INITIALLY UNDERCUTS ABV FREEZING AIR IN THE 850 TO 900MB LAYER NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO WE INCLUDED SLEET MSLY ACROSS WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO THE CURRENT HDLNS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FA WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND GUSTY S WINDS OVR NE AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED BASED ON UPDATED FCST LOWS POSTED LATE AT 8 AM STARTING FROM 8 PM THIS EVE. ORGNL DISC: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO... OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED. SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT... SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY...
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FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES AND HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS HAVE BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL AS ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS INCREASING. APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO CONT INTO WED.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA HYDROLOGY...KHW

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