Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 091041 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 541 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 530 AM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF BANDING OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA THIS HR...AND LIKELY WE ARE NEAR HE HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH LATEST HRRR HRLY SIM RADAR OUTPUT SHOWING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN REF OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA. FURTHER S...DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE BREAK IN REF...WITH NE REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING A WEAKER BAND OF SN OVR SW ME LIFTING INTO SRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO WE WILL KEEP THE ADV GOING HERE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE LATE MORN WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM. ORGNL DISC: KEPT WNTR WX ADV HDLNS THE SAME FROM LAST UPDATE. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SNOW ROTATING SLOWLY SE TO NW INTO NRN ME...WITH THE NW LAST TO GET UNDER THE SN CANOPY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE HIGHEST SN RATES (UP TO 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HR) BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORN...RESULTING IN LESSER SN RATES. OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY SN WILL LIFT NWRD FROM DOWNEAST AREAS BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORN INTO MIDDAY HRS...REACHING THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY EVE. GREATEST SNFL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE FAR SE WITH FCST TOTAL QPF AOA 0.60 INCHES...WHERE A FEW LCTNS IN SE WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD GET UP TO 9 INCHES OR SO. WITH LESSER FCST QPF XPCTD TO THE NW...SN TOTALS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FEW LCTNS IN THE NW AND XTRM NE GETTING PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 3 INCHES. WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF SITES OVRNGT. SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORN. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORN. TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR ASTRONOMICAL MAXIMUM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURGE AND WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FT...SOME SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

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