-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 040253
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
930 PM UPDATE: WE DROPPED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS
UPDATE...SINCE NO OBS LCTN REPORTED ANY VSBY LESS THAN 3 MI
ATTM. OTHERWISE...BASED ON A SLOW (OR NO) RATE OF FALL OF TEMPS
BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM OBS...WE DECIDED TO RAISE OVRNGT LOWS A COUPLE
OF DEG F...USING THE OPNL 18Z NAM HAS THE MAIN INPUT FOR LOW TEMPS
GIVEN CLDNSS OVR MOST OF THE FA AND STEADY NNW BREEZE ACROSS ALL
OF THE FA XPCTD TO KEEP A WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE THRU THE
NGT...MAKING MODEL TEMPS A REASONABLE CHOICE AS A PROXY FOR
LOW TEMP FCSTNG FOR THIS OVRNGT. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
BETWEEN 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS AND POSTED FCST LOWS AT 6-7AM.

LASTLY...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE FA TO WARN OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY BLACK ICE DUE TO WET ROADWAYS FROM MELTING
SN EARLIER TDY.

545 PM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS THIS UPDATE WERE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS TNGT
TO MSLY UNCHGD OVRNGT FCST LOWS BASED ON TRENDS FROM 5 PM OBS...
AND TO LOWER CLD CVR OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS OVRNGT TO REFLECT THE
CLRG LN NOT TO FAR AWAY CURRENTLY OVR WRN ME.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
THE LOW WILL CLIP THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALSO CLIPPING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 30 ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED.
THE CLEARING WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND PUSH
EASTWARD...REACHING THE EASTERN BORDER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL FOR
THE WARM FRONT AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT IS GOOD NEWS WITH REGARD TO
FREEZING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL
WILL ALLOW SOME MORNING SUN AND THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE BIGGEST TROUBLE THURSDAY MORNING
IS LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF DOVER-FOXCROFT TOWARDS GREENVILLE WHERE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE AFTERNOON...REMOTE NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK
AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON TO TEMPERATURES
AT THE FREEZING MARK AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR THAT WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DEEP
FRONTAL INVERSION. MOST FOG AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE UP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF RAIN
COULD FALL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR DOWN EAST
AND BANGOR. FURTHER NORTH...LOW TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY PUSH ALL THE FOG AND DRIZZLE OUT OF THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE FRONT IS EXPECT TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS MEANS CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN TOWARDS DOWN EAST AND THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MAINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
NORTH AND LOW 40S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING PRESSES INTO THE REGION PUSHING COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA.
SATURDAY WILL BE COLD WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY DOWNEAST. THE COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A VERY LARGE AND COLD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY
WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAY CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET OR
RAIN DOWNEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY MONDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR SWINGS INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOME BITTERLY COLD AIR MAY THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS THE BIG TROUGH IN THE NATIONS MID
SECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF HUL WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BGR AND BHB WILL BE VFR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL BECOME MVFR DUE TO
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING AT GNR AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT FVE. ALL SITES WILL BE
LIFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A MARGINAL SCA IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS
REACH 25 KTS AND SEAS APPROACH 4 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW