Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 200034 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 834 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST A RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE WINDS BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DO NOT FEEL FROST WILL BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE EXTENSIVE FROST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS. SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TODAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SATURDAY SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011- 015>017-031-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.