Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250932 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO EAST OF LABRADOR TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER THANKSGIVING DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BIG CONCERN TODAY IS STRONG WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH. THE COMBO OF THE TRAILING STRONG PRES GRAD OF THE DEPARTING NRN QB STORM...A STRONG LLVL WSW TO ENE JETLET OF 45 TO 55 KT EXTENDING FROM QB CITY TO NEAR FVE AND STEEP LLVL TEMP LAPSE RATES WILL CONT TIL INTO THE AFTN HR OVR THIS PTN OF REGION. WIND GUSTS AT FVE APT... AN ELEVATED SITE IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 50 MPH ERLY THIS MORN. ELSEWHERE TO THE S...WIND GUST POTENTIAL TDY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR AND HI/LOW AND HRLY TEMPS TDY THRU TNGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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FOR WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND RAPIDLY SHOOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND THE KEY WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FURTHER EAST AS SHOWN BY GEMS AND SREF WILL REDUCE ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE PREDICATED ON A TRACK TAKING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF YARMOUTH IN NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH RATHER THAN COMMITTING TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AS THE SNOW STARTS WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE STORM WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE FIRST INCH OR TWO WILL FALL BY EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS PROGGED FOR THE 7PM TO 1AM TIMEFRAME FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WHEN 5 TO 7 INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT AND END EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. STORM TOTALS FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART...IF THE FORECAST TRACK HOLDS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE REDUCED AMOUNTS IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. ON THANKSGIVING DAY...SNOW ENDS IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND THIS POSES THE THREAT OF A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE TEENS...BUT ZERO TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLEARING...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE. WENT WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE COLD HOLDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER UNDER INCREASING HIGH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. LOWS WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES LATER. A GOOD WARMUP WILL OCCUR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND BRINGS SNOW TO BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WILL COVER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR BANGOR AND HANCOCK COUNTY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR SC CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS LATE TDY INTO TNGT OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES...SPCLY KFVE. SHORT TERM: VFR TO START WEDNESDAY. BGR AND BHB WILL BECOME LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFR SPREADS TO ALL SITES IN THE EVENING. VFR RETURNS TO BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR HUL NORTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WE HAVE CONTD THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TIL 23Z... WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN A LITTLE SOONER OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE. SHORT TERM: EXPECT A STRONG GALE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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