Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231128 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 728 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move east of the region through Today. Low pressure will approach by mid week with the potential for a widespread significant rain event Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 725 AM Update...Quick update to go with more in the way of clouds early this morning per latest satellite imagery. previous discussion Strong high pressure will remain over the Atlantic well to the east of the region. Intense low pressure will move northward towards the Central Great Lakes during the day today and tonight. This will cause a stronger southerly flow to develop and result in increasing clouds late tonight into Tuesday Morning. Areas of fog are also possible later tonight, especially across the south, as moisture flow northward a low levels. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... System located nr the OH/TN vlys wl be our wx maker thru the short term. PW values btwn 1.5 and 2 inches being drawn nwrd into the Gulf States wl begin to encroach on CWA Tue night as area gets the squeeze play btwn sfc low ovr the Great Lks and Bermuda high. Expect fog, along with patchy drizzle, to dvlp acrs the area Tue mrng in strong warm air advection and onshore flow. Temps wl rise well into the 60s on Tue with morning temps already starting abv normal highs. Rain wl mv in Tue evng with potential for locally hvy rainfall Tue night into Wed, especially with any thunder that is able to dvlp Wed aftn. Heaviest rain looks to occur from midnight Tue night thru the day Wed. All med range guidance has trended much quicker with system departing the area by Thu mrng than prior runs hv. Thus overall qpf amnts hv trended down with storm total qpf thru Thur mrng arnd 3 inches ovr cntrl and Downeast areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain wl be on its way out Thur mrng though EC conts to be slower than rmng guidance. GFS ensembles appear to be all ovr the board with eventual mvmnt of H5 system and hv sided with the Superblend to keep likely pops in thru the day Thu. Hipres expected to be present Fri and Sat with unsettled wx returning for late in the weekend with trof digging back into the northeast. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions in the north through tonight. MVFR is possible KHUL, KBGR, and KBHB this morning and later tonight due to low ceiling and fog. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR expected Tue morning through the middle of the week as a widespread system spreads fog, drizzle and eventually rain into terminals. Improvement expected Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained wind speed. For waves: Currently the primary wave system is southerly wind wave (1-2 feet/4-5 seconds). There is also a secondary, southeasterly, long period swell present. The southerly wind wave is expected to increase in height and period late tonight as intense low pressure passes to the west of New England. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System to initialize the wave grids. SHORT TERM: Seas increase to aoa 5 feet Tuesday afternoon in southerly swell with periods increasing to near 10 sec Wed aftn. Winds increase to near gale force late Tuesday night contg thru the day Wed. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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