Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240533 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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115 AM UPDATE: 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SE OF CAPE COD STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY NE. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING. RADAR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING W W/SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED. 24 HR TOTALS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. LESS AMOUNTS AS ONE TRAVELS NORTHWARD W/<1" OF RAINFALL. THE HRRR 3KM MESOSCALE MODEL WAS DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL PER THE RADAR AS WAS THE 00Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT 2 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB. SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM. SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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