Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220509 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will build north of the area Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will then intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and move north toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1210 AM update...The cold front lies poised just to our northeast. It will slowly drop southward into the Pine Tree State through daybreak. A snow shower or two will be possible as it does so. Otherwise, lots of clouds and temperatures holding nearly steady, perhaps dropping a few degrees. The forecast has this pretty much covered, so no significant changes were made with this update. Previous Discussion... A new area of high pressure building across Quebec in response to strong ridging aloft in east central Canada will push down from the north on Sunday. This will bring a light northeasterly flow and possibly some breaks in the overcast. Otherwise, Sunday will be dry and mild for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Backdoor cold front will push into the region with an area of high pressure centered over Quebec Province noses in. This will allow easterly winds to become established over the region on Monday with a slightly cooler day then the last few, but still well above average temperatures for this time of year. Monday night the developing Mid-Atlantic low pressure system will begin to approach the area from the south. Easterly winds will begin to increase over the coast out ahead of the storm system. Models are showing a strong low-level jet with 925mb winds reaching 60kts out of the east early Tuesday morning. Wind advisories will be needed most likely for the coast. Precipitation will begin to break out early Tuesday morning across Downeast/Bangor/Central Highlands. Thermal profiles are still difficult to pinpoint this far out, but critical thickness values for all model camps are showing mixed precipitation possible all the way to Northern Maine. Spread continues between the model camps, but the ECMWF was a good compromise between the warmer GFS and cold GEM. Ensemble spread within the models also continues. Overall went with a compromise of latest guidance and persistence from last forecast. Tuesday morning could be ice across Bangor and Interior Downeast, with an icy commute home for Northern Maine and the Central Highlands. Held off any any headlines due to model spread this far out still. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Icy mess continues Tuesday night as coastal low pulls north through the Gulf of Maine and colder air begins to work back aloft. Precip should end late Tuesday night across the North with a small break expected during the day on Wednesday. Another system could impact the region on Thursday with mostly rain and snow showers expected. Mostly cloudy and colder weather expected Friday and Saturday as cyclonic flow continues across the region. Central highlands and Northern Maine could experience a few stray snow showers, with dry conditions expected across Bangor and Downeast. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions, mostly ceilings, are expected across the region into the early morning hours with MVFR conditions late tonight into Sunday morning. MVFR conditions are expected to persist across the north and mountains Sunday afternoon, with VFR/MVFR conditions Bangor and Downeast. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions expected on Monday. Aviation impacts expected by early Tuesday morning, with strong low level wind shear, especially near BGR/BHB. Mixed precipitation also possible Downeast before changing over to rain by the afternoon. Snow, sleet and freezing rain in IFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon across Northern Maine. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through much of Sunday. However, a few gusts may approach 25 kt in northeasterly winds late Sunday across the offshore waters. SHORT TERM: Gale Watch in effect for the coastal waters late Monday through the day on Tuesday, as a Nor`Easter moves up the coast. Strong NE winds expected by Monday night, with waves building to close 18ft over the waters by Tuesday. Surface low pulls north of the waters by Wednesday morning, with northwest winds and subsiding seas to SCA conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Hastings Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...Bloomer/Hastings/Dumont Marine...Bloomer/Hastings/Dumont

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