Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290338 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1138 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 11:35 PM UPDATE...RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NORTH. CUT BACK ON RAIN IN CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. KEPT OCCASIONAL RAIN IN FAR NORTH AND ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INITIALLY...THE LEADING EDGE OF RNFL WAS SLOW TO ADVC FROM DOWNEAST AREAS TO THE FAR NE DURING THE LATE MORN TO ERLY AFTN HRS...THEN THE FORWARD SPEED PICKED UP SOMEWHAT AS OF MID AFTN...SO WE XPCT EVEN THE FURTHEST N ST JOHN VLYS TO BE IN STEADY RN BY 5 TO 6 PM EDT. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVIER RNFL RATES WILL MOVE E INTO NB OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES ENE OUT OF OUR FA. THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER DEFORMATION BAND RNFL FOR MSLY CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE OVRNGT PD...WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS GRADUALLY SEE STEADY RN TAPER TO SHWRS AND DZ BY THE LATE NGT HRS. LGT RN AND SHWRS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST ACROSS THE N MONDAY MORN...WITH IMPROVING...DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA FROM DOWNEAST AREAS MON MORN TO EVENTUALLY THE FAR N BY LATER MON AFTN...WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT. AFT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS OVRNGT...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HI TEMPS MON AFTN WILL BE OPPOSITE (BUT MORE TYPICAL) THEN THIS AFTN WITH NRN AREAS BEING COOLEST...AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME AFTN SUN A LITTLE WARMER...ALTHOUGH THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL BE STILL SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL HI TEMPS FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WINDS FROM MOSG25. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EVERY FEW DAYS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH INTERVALS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR AT START OF PERIOD BUT BEGIN TO DIFFER AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...SO OPTED TO STICK WITH SUPERBLEND LATE IN PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MODERATION DAY WITH A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY WIND TO A LIGHT BREEZY CONDITION AND A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN AND DZ OVRNGT THEN BACK TO MVFR LATER MON MORN INTO MON AFTN WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS. DOWNEAST SITES WILL REMAIN IFR CLGS AND/OR VSBYS IN STEADY RN...INTERMITTENT SHWRS AND DZ OVRNGT...IMPROVING TO MVFR MON MORN THEN TO VFR MON AFTN AS SHWRS MOVE NE OUT OF THIS PTN OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WITH THE APCH OF THE COASTAL LOW PEAKED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GALE OVER MZ051 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BOTH THE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MON MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO SUPER BLEND WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT LOCAL WINDS EXPECT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW ON THE 28TH TO CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. THIS WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO SUBSIDE FROM ABOUT 6 FEET/10 SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT TO 3-4 FEET/10 SECONDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN AT 28/1200Z TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE LATEST RUN OF THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL HAD THE WAVES PEAKING OUT ALONG THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST AROUND 00Z. THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND WILL CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. && .CLIMATE... SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH OF 57 DEGREES AT BANGOR TIES WITH 1968 FOR THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE EVER OBSERVED ON JUNE 28TH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN/MCB SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/MIGNONE LONG TERM...BLOOMER/PJR AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER/MIGNONE

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