Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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464 FXUS61 KCAR 242212 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across southern new england will lift north tonight. A cold front will cross the area wednesday and will be followed by high pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across the region friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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600 PM Update: Not to much chg in the current fcst this update. Latest radar ref imagery shows departing lgt shwrs exiting far NW ME (and most of this may be evaporating before reaching the ground) and diminishing isold shwrs ovr cntrl ptns of the FA from Downeast ME earlier. The upper and sfc lows over the Gulf of Maine are quite baratropic...something very unusual to observe this far N...only observed once or twice by this fcstr ovr the last 16 and 1/2 years assigned to this office. All of the baroclinic energy used up ovr the last few days by this system explains the lack of organized rnfl. The only other chgs this update was fcst hrly dwpts and temps as well has high and low temps from this aftn to Wed aftn...including hi trrn temps. We will cont to monitor the progress of oceanic sc/st nwrd into nrn ptns of the FA tngt and the potential of patchy fog for Downeast areas late tngt durg the course of the next few hrs. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure at the surface and aloft near Cape Cod late this afternoon will track northeast across the Gulf of Maine tonight. Increasingly moist air will be advected north across the region tonight resulting in stratus clouds moving north from the Gulf of Maine overnight. As the upper/surface lows move northeast, there could even be a few showers from time to time tonight, mainly across central and downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in the 50s. The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west. Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers should end by around midnight with at least partial clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursday night and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately humid with a few showers around at times. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England. The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul with developing mvfr clgs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with possibility of lcl mvfr conditions. For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog. Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon. SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings, especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm in fog through Wednesday morning. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will likely be reduced at times in showers and fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...VJN/CB Marine...VJN/CB

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