Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222304 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 604 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening as an area of low pressure passes to the south of the area tonight. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Update 6:00 PM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. A cold front and associated cold upper trough in the northern stream is merging with low pressure moving along the Atlantic coast in the southern stream. The low is rapidly deepening and will continue deepening overnight as it tracks towards eastern Nova Scotia. The cold front is evolving into a slow-moving inverted trough as the southern stream low becomes dominant. Moderate to heavy rain is moving northeastward along the inverted trough and will continue pushing northward late this afternoon into the evening. Around an inch or more of rain is expected for much of Washington County. As the low in the Atlantic moves further east this evening, some colder air will be drawn southeastward towards the low...transitioning rain to snow. This will mainly affect northeast Aroostook County where an inch or two could fall this evening before precip ends. Falling temperatures and strong winds will help freeze remaining moisture on the roads tonight. Gusty northwest winds can be expected through the night on the backside of the deepening low and have leaned towards a blend of model guidance for lows tonight. Ridging quickly takes hold later tonight and should put a quick end to stratocumulus fields on the backside of the low. High and mid clouds will increase on Thanksgiving afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will reach the low to mid 30s in the southern half of the forecast area. Upper 20s to lower 30s are forecast north of Houlton and the Katahdin region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Frontal bndry wl be appchg CWA Thu night as it drops south out of Canada. Winds wl turn to the sw ahd of front drawing in higher dwpt air bfr dropping acrs the north twd daybreak. At this time frcg does not look to be strong enuf to be concerned about squalls acrs nrn zones as strongest frcg looks to be to the north and east in Quebec. Cannot rule out an isold snow shower acrs the far nw ovrngt but little in the way of accums. Weak hipres briefly influences area`s wx on Fri before wmfnt lifts north of the area Fri aftn. Overrunning wl lkly lead to chc for lgt snow acrs the far north once again late Fri aftn into the evng hrs. Temps acrs Downeast wl climb to nr normal for highs in the aftn in the lwr 40s while nrn zones wl be hard-pressed to climb abv frzg. CWA wl be in the wmsector Fri night into Sat evng with temps climbing well abv normal for the first half of the weekend. May see pcpn begin to dvlp Sat aftn as cdfnt encroaches twd international brdr aft 18z. For now wl go with slgt-low chc pops drg the aftn given model discrepancy on timing of bndry. Latest 12z runs continue to disagree on coastal low twd the end of the short term pd. GFS and EC hv vry minimal impact on the area thru Sat, while CMC and especially NAM indicate coastal areas may see some influence on wx Sat evng. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fropa wl occur Sat night with upr lvl trof lagging bhnd resulting in chc pcpn thru the day on Sunday. Cold advection in wake of fropa wl result in rain changing to snow from north to south by Sun mrng. Pcpn drg the day wl lkly be in the form of snow showers acrs the north and rain in Downeast area as maxes wl rmn in the l30s for the north and arnd 40 in Downeast. High pressure wl build in on Monday with H5 ridge expected into Mon evng bfr beginning to break down Tue mrng as a warm front lifts north. Med range guidance differ on mvmnt of next front with EC mvg it thru Wed mrng and GFS/CMC bringing fropa thru on Wed evng. As a result hv warmed mins on Wed mrng by svrl degrees above Superblend. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR cigs and vis in rain at BGR and BHB will persist into this evening...followed by improvement to VFR conditions by late evening. Further north...VFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR in the rain. North of HUL, rain will change to snow this evening with IFR tempo LIFR vis. All sites will be VFR after midnight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: MVFR restrictions expected to move into nrn terminals Fri morning as front moves through and low cigs will be present in stratocu. Conditions improve to VFR Fri afternoon before diminishing again Sat morning mainly across the north in low cigs and rain showers. Restrictions continue off and on across the north through Sunday before improving to VFR on Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The strong winds over the waters kick in later this evening behind the deepening low near Nova Scotia. A few gusts could exceed 35 kts, but not with a duration or frequency that prompts an upgrade to gale. Winds will be decreasing by late tonight as the low moves away and high pressure builds. SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below SCA levels Thursday into Friday evening. Wind gusts will increase to aoa 25kts Fri night thru the day Saturday. On the other hand, seas will remain at marginal SCA levels into the day on Friday. Seas increase above 5 feet Fri night in southerly swell. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
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