Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 290945 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA. AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG. FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS PD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.