Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291643 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1243 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain over northern Maine today. An weakening occluded front will cross the region later tonight into Tuesday morning. Another frontal boundary is expected to cross the region Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1240 PM Update: Showers have msly ended across our FA. Cldnss has also shown sig breaks across Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the FA which has had some lcl impacts on temps beyond the the prior fcst of hi temps. Utilizing the current hrly temps, we tried to factor rgnl differences of sunshine to in modifying fcst hi temps for later this aftn. Orgnl Disc: After some morning showers across far n and nw, the CWA will become rain-free into the evening as the stalled frontal boundary lifts back to the Maine-Canadian border. The latest run of the RAP was matched up well w/this setup as high pres wedges down from the ne. Satl imagery showed quite a bit of cloudiness across the CWA this morning. RAP soundings showed some potential for some breaks in the clouds early on, but as the day progresses clouds should fill back in w/a sse wind. This will lead to a rather cool day w/daytime temps topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s w/the warmer temps away from the Bangor- Bar Harbor region. Clouds will thicken up in earnest this evening from s to n as an occluded front lifts across the region. There does appear to be enough forcing in the mid levels to generate some shower activity across the the sw and then the activity moves ne overnight. Decided to go w/40% pops overnight into Tuesday morning w/QPF amounts around 0.10".
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cloudy conditions with highs in the lower 60s are anticipated Tuesday with the risk of showers increasing later in the day with the occluded front. Most of the shower activity with the front will occur Tuesday night. There is just enough elevated instability to include a slight chance of thunderstorms for northern Aroostook County later Tuesday evening. For Wednesday, a more southerly flow than previously expected will keep cooler marine air streaming over most of the area and minimize surface based convection except towards the western border on Wednesday afternoon. Shower activity is expected through the day ahead of an upper level shortwave. Some elevated convection is possible Wednesday night and may have to include in the next forecast package. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday night, drier conditions and a westerly flow is expected for Thursday. There may be some remaining shower activity, but it would be light and widely scattered. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The persistent upper low that caused the unsettled weather through the week will drift towards Maine during Friday and a vigorous shortwave will move through the region Friday afternoon and evening. The amount of shear and cold air advection aloft raises concern for some severe storms with this shortwave. The upper low will move over the state Saturday with more showery activity and a cool northerly flow, but showers will tend to decrease Sunday and Sunday night as the upper low finally moves east into the Canadian Maritimes. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR for KBGR and KBHB this morning w/MVFR-VFR across the northern terminals. Conditions across the northern terminals will be VFR w/periods of MVFR cigs today into tonight. KBGR and KBHB will see IFR to improve to MVFR but will start dropping back to IFR later tonight w/some fog possible. SHORT TERM: Tuesday will start IFR towards BGR and BHB, but VFR further north. All sites will be VFR by afternoon. On Tuesday night, conditions will deteriorate to IFR cigs by later in the night into Wednesday morning. Cigs will only improve to MVFR before returning to IFR Wednesday night into Thursday morning. VFR conditions are forecast by later Thursday morning through Friday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected this term. SSE winds will pick up some later this afternoon into the evening at speeds of 10 to 15 kts. The winds will drop back to around 10 kts or less by midnight. Seas look like they will remain 2 to 3 ft through tonight. SHORT TERM: Fog will be a factor starting later Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday morning. There is a chance of some higher swell starting Friday and continuing into Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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