Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010259 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1059 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1045 PM...THE HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN AND FOG WAS ADDED FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM12 SOUNDING SHOWED DEEP LLVL MOISTURE SETTING UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS W/A LIGHT SSE FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THIS, STAYED W/THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS(40-50%) FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVED THE PRECIP SHIELD FURTHER E TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME ECHOES MOVING IN TO WESTERN AREAS. THE HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE RAP DID QUITE WELL W/THE HANDLING OF THE SHOWERS. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAYBE BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG PRECIP PRODUCER, THOUGH, WITH TOTALS GENERALLY BEING UNDER A QUARTER INCH. LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR WESTERN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSE THE CROWN OF MAINE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE GFS IS 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. MOTHER NATURE MAY SUPPLY ITS OWN FIREWORKS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE MAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO SUMMERTIME NORMS WITH VALUES IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT KBGR AND KBHB, AND POSSIBLY NORTH TO KHUL, AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR FOR MOST AREAS ONCE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIFT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON INDEPENDENCE DAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: ADDED FOG THROUGH WED MORNING. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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