Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 272307 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 607 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 540 PM UPDATE: FOR NOW...JUST FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED INTO THE OVRNGT WITH NO CHGS TO CURRENT WNTR WX HDLN STRUCTURE ATTM. WITH LIITLE IN THE WAY OF LOW VSBYS OVR THE CURRENT BLZRD WRNG... WE WILL WAIT TIL LATER THIS EVE TO SEE IF WIND SUBSIDES BLO HI WIND WRNG GUST CRITERIA BEFORE DECIDING TO TRANSITION TO A SN/BLSN ADV. ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND SOME CLEARING APPROACHES. SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 540 PM UPDATE...WITH ONLY LGT ICG INDICATED OVR OUR OUTER MZS FOR TNGT AND WED...WE OPTD TO CANX THE FZSPY ADV OVR THIS PTN OF OUR WATERS. NO OTHER CHGS TO REMAINING HDLNS ATTM. ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029- 030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.