Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290020 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 820 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 820 PM UPDATE... FRONT IS NOW BISECTING CWA WITH LAST GASP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. LGT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACRS CNTRL SXNS AHD OF H5 S/WV PUSHING SOUTH THRU THE AREA. QUICK UPDATE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES FOR THIS EVNG BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SKIES ARE CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS JUST A BIT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT POPS FOR THIS EVENING STILL LOOK GOOD. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BREEZY, WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN BEGIN WITH SOME SHOWERS IN DOWNEAST AREAS AS CLEARING PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND SUNNY ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FIRST TWO HRS AT FVE BFR VFR SETS IN NEXT 24 HOURS. BGR AND BHB WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BUT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID TIME. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN VFR ON SATURDAY THEN LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS ALL THE SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE A SURGE UPWARD THIS EVENING, BUT NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 25 KTS W/THE FROPA. SEAS HAVE JUST COME UP TO 5 FT AND THERE IS A SHOT FOR 6 FT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION FOR HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY BUT THEN WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF W/OFFSHORE FLOW. A SWELL WAS ENTERING THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST (3-4 FEET/6 SECONDS). SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER

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