Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290958 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 558 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS/VJN AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS FIRE WEATHER...BLOOMER

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