Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220409 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will cross the region Thursday. A warm front then lifts across the region Friday, followed by another cold front Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12am update...Cloud cover associated with a post-frontal trough will move out of the state in the coming hours as high pressure builds in preparation for a very pleasant Thursday. The air mass is very dry and have lowered dew points for Thursday. A deep mixed layer will produce gusty WNW winds on Thursday reaching 20 to 25 mph at times. Previous discussion... The band of showers and thunderstorms that crossed the region today, producing gusty winds and small hail, will move into New Brunswick by this evening. The cold front still lies across eastern Quebec, as evidenced by the dewpoint gradient, and this will slide by overnight. A few showers will be possible during the early evening hours, mainly across the North Woods, until this front moves through; any lingering precipitation will come to an end thereafter as drier air works in behind the front. Lows will range from the upper 40s across the upper St John Valley to the mid 50s Downeast. Thursday will be dry with plenty of sunshine. Highs will range from the lower 70s across the Allagash region to the upper 70s in interior Downeast. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the west with gusts 20-25 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Concern for potentially heavy rain Friday into Friday night. System approaching from the west appears to tap into some moisture from Cindy. Believe that best shot at heavier rain will be in north/northwest portions of the forecast area due to better dynamics, but still a good amount of uncertainty as to how things evolve. Good news is that the heavy rain threat doesn`t last any more than 12 to 18 hours as a cold front moves through late Friday night or Saturday morning, shunting the deeper moisture off to our southeast. Could be isolated to scattered showers leftover for Saturday, but won`t be an all-day washout by any means. Behind the front for Saturday, temperatures still look fairly warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but it will be less muggy than Friday and Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Looking at a trough stretching from the Great Lakes into New England through early next week. This will keep things fairly unsettled with temperatures close to average. Too hard to pinpoint timing of exact systems, but it appears most days Sunday through Wednesday will feature a chance of showers, with the better shot at precipitation being in afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR will prevail as a cold front will cross the region tonight, ushering in drier air and clearing skies. SHORT TERM: Likelihood of a period of IFR conditions with the next weather system Friday into Friday night. Then improving to mainly VFR for the weekend, although any afternoon/evening showers could bring lower conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below small craft advisory levels through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Looks like a period of small craft conditions late Friday into Friday night with the next weather system. Over the weekend after the flow switches from onshore to parallel or slightly offshore, expect conditions to be just below small craft levels. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hastings/MCW Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Duda/Hastings/MCW/Foisy Marine...Duda/Hastings/MCW/Foisy

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