Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181713 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will approach from central Canada today and track north of the area tonight. A weak cold front will cross the region later Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest late Sunday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 12PM Update: Raised lows for tonight as warm front crosses and increased clouds due to low level moisture for the entire area. Will raise highs for Sunday as Bangor and Ellsworth will hit at least 43F...the warmest readings of the month. There are three separate precip episodes with this system. First, is the band of snow showers crossing northern zones this morning into the afternoon. Have raised pops in Aroostook County for this afternoon as it appears the band will strengthen in the next few hours. Second, there will be light snow or even freezing drizzle tonight in northern zones with the warm front. Have added freezing drizzle in the forecasts for the northern half of the forecast tonight. No accumulation is expected and no advisory will be issued. Finally, rain and snow showers will occur with the cold front Sunday as low level instability develops. Again, these showers will mostly be in the northern half of the forecast area. None of these episodes presents any substantive amounts of precipitation as all of the energy with this low pressure system will be far north of the state. Orgnl Disc: Models cont to advertise a weak band of ovrrng lgt sn ahead of a warm front for Nrn ptns of the region msly from late morn into aftn. Most locations across the N that do experience lgt sn will only receive a dusting but a few lctns alg the St John vly could receive up to an inch of snfl. Behind the warm front tngt, any sn across the N will be in the cvrg of sct sn shwrs msly ovr far Nrn areas with little in the way of accumulation. Temps will be slow to rise tdy with cld cvr across the region, but will make steady progress by aftn to reach late day hi temps in the lower to mid 30s across most lctns. Aftwrds...temps will be steady or even slowly rising into the ovrngt, until the erly morn hrs when a weak cold front will reverse the trend of temps back to falling by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure sliding by to our north will pull a weak cold front into the north on Sunday. This may bring some rain or snow showers across the north on Sunday. Otherwise, northern and central areas will be mostly cloudy with partial sunshine Downeast. Temperatures will be above freezing across most areas ranging from the mid 30s north to low 40s Downeast. Any showers should dissipate Sunday night as the front pushes across the area and high pressure begins to build in from the west. A large area of high pressure will begin building down from central Canada on Monday. This will bring a breezy day with increasing sunshine and seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure cresting over the area on Tuesday will bring bright sunshine and tranquil air with highs close to freezing. The high will slide east of the area Tuesday night. A weak warm front crossing the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring clouds and possibly a few showers of rain or snow. Generally mild weather with longwave ridging is expected to continue to persist through mid to late next week. The next significant storm may come next weekend as a large low tracks to our northwest pulling warm air north and bringing a chance for rain across the area Saturday into Saturday night. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Msly VFR xpctd across the TAF sites with MVFR clgs/vsbys with any very lgt sn tdy and sn shwrs tngt across Nrn TAF sites. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions across the north and VFR conditions Downeast are likely Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure building in from the northwest should then bring VFR conditions across the area Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... 9am update...bumped up start time of the SCA to 4PM. NEAR TERM: Initially no headlines for our waters tdy, but winds and seas are xpctd to increase by this eve for an SCA for our outer MZs, which will cont thru the rest of the ovrngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst. SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be needed for westerly winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters Sunday into Monday. High pressure cresting over the area on Tuesday should then bring tranquil conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCW Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/MCW/Bloomer Marine...VJN/MCW/Bloomer

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