Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271721 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1221 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1221 PM UPDATE...THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS WORKING ITS MAGIC AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING NICELY. A NUMBER OF SPOTS ARE AT THE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. ORGNL DISC: STRONG AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR FA TDY THRU SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ANY LEFT OVR CLDNSS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORN BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST PART OF THIS PTN OF THE FCST...SINCE ENOUGH PRES GRAD...LLVL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALF WILL BE PRESENT FOR FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR LOW LYING...SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY AREAS TNGT...MEANING WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE TNGT OVR THESE AREAS...BUT MAINTAINING A BREEZE ON HILLSIDES. EMPHASIS ON THIS FCST UPDATE WAS PLACED ON TRRN DETAILS DRIVEN BY DAY/NIGHT AND VLY/HIER TRRN WIND/WIND GUST REGIMES SET UP BY AN W TO E RIDGE AXIS PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE IMPACT ON FCST HIGH TEMPS TDY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THU`S HI TEMPS...SINCE FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS TDY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YSTDY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEG WARMER THAN FRI WITH FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN FRI. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL SHOW EXTRA WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN COLDER LOW LYING LCTNS AND HILLTOP LCTNS WHICH WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 TO 15 DEG F WARMER DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 5 MPH OR MORE KEEPING THE BL TO MIXED FOR ANY SFC INVSN TO FORM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1040MB HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED NAM WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DECOUPLING AND A DEEPER INVERSION ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW 30S ON THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL ENERGIZE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN QUICKLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT PATTERN OF HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. HAVE SPECIFIED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE DOWN EAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY. SINCE THE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TUESDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW-MID 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT SINCE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...IT WILL DRAW SUFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. SNOWFALL WILL BE WET AND HEAVY COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT WITH LOW SNOW-WATER RATIOS. HAVE NOT ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER SURFACE AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST SINCE THE LAST RAIN EVENT ON JAN 19. THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO THE DEEP FREEZE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SECONDARY WAVE COULD DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT IT ONLY MERITS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU SAT. SHORT TERM: VFR SAT NGT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. BECOMING IFR IN SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECT LGT FZG SPY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE MDT FZG SPY REQUIRING AN AN ADDITIONAL SPY ADV LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. OTHERWISE...NO WIND/WV HDLNS NEEDED TDY THRU SAT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH LATEST BUOY OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARKED DEVIATION FROM THE GUIDANCE. SHORT TERM: A LOW-END GALE IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... BANGOR IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AND ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD. CARIBOU REMAINS ON PACE FOR THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...AND THE TOP 3 OR 4 ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW CLIMATE...VJN/CB

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