Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180334 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1034 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving east of the mid atlantic region will bring some snow to the area overnight and Sunday morning, especially across down east areas. High pressure will build in Sunday afternoon and then move east of the coast on Monday with a milder flow of air to start the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1030 PM Update...Decided to adjust the snowfall overnight bringing a bit more snow into southern Piscataquis County seeing that the 00Z NAM shows a band of moderate to heavy snow from 06-12z w/the inverted trof(Norlun). Also brought snowfall amounts up for the Bangor region by a few tenths. Concern is there that the aforementioned regions could see close to 4 inches before the llvl convergence weakens by mid morning Sunday. Attm, went w/total for these aforementioned areas to 3+ inches. Stayed w/the current headline for a Winter Weather Advisory for the Hancock County coast. This will need to be monitored overnight to possibly expand it further n and e. Another item to note is the potential for a line snow squalls to set up across Washington County between 15-18z Sunday. Signals are pointing to this potential w/steep llvl lapse rates and instability as CAPEs are progged by the NAM to be 50+ joules in that area. Previous Discussion... Snow will develop from west to east after midnight. As the mid atlantic low tracks east overnight, an inverted trof will extend northwest of the low toward the mid coast of Maine. This will enhance the snowfall toward the coast, especially coastal Hancock county. Thus, will issue a Winter Weather advisory for coastal Hancock for 3 to 5 inches of snow beginning late tonight through Sunday morning. The soundings do show some low level instability, as pointed out by the mid shift, and this could result in locally higher snow amounts. Will just need to monitor the system as it evolves later tonight into Sunday morning to make any adjustments to snowfall amounts, as these type of systems can be difficult to forecast until they actually evolve. Across the rest of down east Maine, including greater Bangor, generally expecting 2 to 3 inches by Sunday morning. Snow amounts will drop off across far northern Maine with only an inch or two expected. Any morning snow Sunday will diminish by mid day, with skies brightening in the afternoon as high pressure once again builds toward the region. High temperatures on Sunday will actually be above normal, with upper 20s to lower 30s north and mid to upper 30s down east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sun ngt will begin clr...with increasing cldnss initially across the N as deep layer warm advcn begins with milder ovrngt lows. Cannot rule out a brief pd of very lgt snow across xtrm Nrn ptns of the Rgn erly Mon morn, otherwise, Mon will be mcldy N and ptly sunny Cntrl and Downeast wih a contd trend of milder hi temps. Lgt precip will move into the Rgn Mon ngt as a back door cold front brings colder llvl air into Nrn ptns of the FA. This could result in a pd of mixed precip across the N, spcly far Nrn areas late Mon ngt into Tue morn particularly if the the colder ECMWF model verifies, but to erly attm to say with enough certainty as to whether a wntr wx adv will be needed, since other 12z dtmnstc models do not bring as much cold air into Nrn areas. Hi temps Tue will vary from the upper 30s far N to lower 50s ovr interior Downeast areas which will likely break into very mild air by aftn. For now, we went with conservative with 6 hrly QPF amts on Tue until we get better agreement with tmg of heavier pulses of rnfl, but for the tm being, this does not look like a hvy rnfl event for any ptn of the FA, but we need to monitor later model runs. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front should then begin movg nwrd again as a warm front by Tue aftn and cont movg newrd towards the Nrn Can Maritimes Tue ngt and Wed. This will likely result in slowly rising temps across the Nrn ptn of the FA Tue ngt alg with additional rnfl. Aftn erly morn rn shwrs Wed, a break in precip will allow for a potentially record breaking hi temps across the FA as the entire Rgn looks to be in the warm sector until mid aftn when a strong cold front will sweep the Rgn from QB prov accompanied by another rnd of rn shwrs ending as sn shwrs Wed eve. Following the cold front, clrg skies is xpctd late Wed ngt with fair and seasonably cold thu and Thu thru Fri. Clds will be on the increase late Fri as another low pres system from the OH vly apchs from the SW with the potential of some sn breaking out late Fri ngt and contg into Sat as llvl Srly winds brings milder air chgng sn to rn from S to N across the Rgn as far north as N Cntrl ptns of the FA. Went with hi chc max PoPs with this event. Hi temps Sat will likely be at least a few deg warmer than Thu or Fri. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with increasing high clouds early this evening. Snow will start to develop from west to east across the area after midnight with IFR expected, especially KBGR/KBHB. These conditions persist into mid morning Sunday with a return to VFR flight conditions all terminals Sunday afternoon. SHORT TERM: All sites initially VFR for Sun ngt and Mon then transitioning to MVFR Mon ngt and IFR Tue with cldnss and vsbys with lgt precip. All sites remaining IFR Tue ngt in rn, rn shwrs, and patchy fog, transitioning to MVFR on Wed with aftn rn shwrs and eve rn/sn shwrs and then back to VFR late Wed ngt and Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds through Sunday, although a few wind gusts to 25 kts are possible across the outer most waters later tonight through early Sunday morning. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA wind and wv conditions will prevail from Mon thru Wed eve, with no hdlns likely Sun/Sun ngt and Wed ngt thru Thu. Went with a blend of WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.