Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1013 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridge will remain across the region into Saturday. Low pressure will gradually approach from the south on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1010 pm update... Quick update to lwr temps, mainly acrs the north by 1-2 degrees as dwpts hv dipped into the m30s acrs the St. John Vly. With skies beginning to clr, cannot rule out patchy frost in these areas and hv added this into nrn Aroostook well aft midnight. Locales near rvr vlys can expect to see patchy fog as skies clr. Updated to be a little more optimistic with moclr skies late tonight as 00z raob from CAR shows an extremely thin cld lyr with clrng advancing in fm NB acrs Downeast tonight. No other chgs needed with this update. Prev discussion blo... The main challenges are cloud cover and fog potential tonight. The latest visible satellite imagery showed clouds across northern and coastal areas while the central portion of the CWA was seeing sunshine. Temps varied where there was cloud cover as northern and western areas were in the low to mid 50s north of Houlton and Millinocket as they were running near 60. Central and interior downeast areas were in the low to mid 60s. NNE were holding at 5 to 10 mph. The latest GFS/NAM soundings including the HRRR showed clouds breaking up for a time this evening across the north and west but then returning after midnight w/the llvl moisture trapped below 2k ft. This anticipated cloudiness can be seen residing back across northern New Brunswick. Before this takes place, temps will fall back for a time into the upper 30s. further to the e, the clouds will keep temps up to around 40. Across the central and downeast areas, mid 40s look good attm. The nne wind around 5-7 mph should allow for the blyr to mixed some especially in the open areas. Confidence is high enough that fog will form by early Thursday morning. Valley and low lying locations have a chance of seeing the fog w/the llvl moisture in place. The BUFKIT soundings point to this as well. High pres anchoring itself in across southern Canada will allow for some sunshine on Thursday after some clouds and valley fog erode by mid morning. Winds are forecast to more from the ne which will add a chill to the air. Decided to boost Thursday afternoon temps up from previous forecast based on how warm the central and downeast region got(mid 60s). Northern and western areas are expected to be in the upper 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A low pressure system over central Kentucky with an occluded front extending east into the North Atlantic along the coast of New Jersey where it meets the warm and cold fronts and a high pressure ridge across Northern New England and Eastern Canada will be the major weather features to affect the weather through the period. The high pressure ridge will remain in place across Maine through the period as the warm front pushes north along the coast of Southern New England with the front progressing to the Cape Cod by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A low over Michigan, with an occluded front extending to Cape Cod, a warm front extended east from Cape Cod into the north Atlantic, and a high pressure ridge will be the main weather features for the start of the long term period. The parent low is showing signs that it is becoming mature. The ridge of higher pressure will hold across northern Maine as the warm front pushes into the Northern Gulf of Maine waters and Southwest Maine. Saturday afternoon the Occluded front moves into Southwest Maine, the warm front moves to Mid-Coast. By Saturday evening the occluded front moves to central Maine, the warm front affects the entire Gulf of Maine. Sunday morning, a secondary low forms in the Gulf of Maine, the occluded front moves to central Maine. The parent low is co-located with the upper level low. Sunday evening Parent low begins to fill as the new low in the Gulf of Maine, moves east to the south coast of central Nova Scotia. Monday morning the parent low continues to fill and drift east over Lake Erie. Maine will remain in wrap around precipitation associated with the remnants of the occluded low. Monday evening an upper level troph is expected to move through absorbing the remaining energy from the filling upper level low and moving to the Downeast coast. Early Tuesday morning high pressure will once again ridge into the area, and will remain through the end of the period. A deep low is forecasted to be moving up the coast at the starting Monday evening and is forecasted east of the coast of North Carolina by the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with the exception of IFR restrictions between 09z-12z Thur at all terminals. SHORT TERM: Aviation VFR conditions all sites through the period. Early morning Fog around water bodies may lead to some vsby issues for PQI, BGR, and BHB, conditions will improve rapidly after sunrise. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA remains up through Thursday afternoon. Winds have been coming up slowly, but seas are slow to come up as they are still residing at 5 ft. Backed this up by a few hrs and show seas building to around 6 ft in the outer zones by tonight. Winds will increase to around 25 kts into early Thursday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the period. Seas around 5 ft with wind gusts to around 22 kts at the start of the period will subside early in the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/Norton Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/Norton

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