Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 051700 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 100 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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100 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. RAIN IS MAKING ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR. THE PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHER THAN SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT IS OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING W/HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM THE NE. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING OUT ABOVE 850MBS INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTENING UP AGAIN BY THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY W/LOW 50S AT BEST FOR MOST OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW WHERE MID 50S COULD BE REACHED W/SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT, THE NEXT SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREAD NE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL W/UP TO 0.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING OFF AS ONE MOVES N. AS A MATTER OF FACT, AREAS N AND W OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE WILL REMAIN DRY DUE HIGH PRES STAYING PUT N OF THE BORDER. AREAS ACROSS THE FAR N AND W WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S EXCEPT MID 50S TONEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWN EASTCOAST WITH A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY BEFORE HEADING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SHOWERS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SHOWERS BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB THIS MORNING W/SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL STAY AROUND VFR W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HITTING MVFR. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT IN LOW CIGS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DROP OFF BELOW 25 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO 25 KTS W/SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT EXPECTED AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC REGION. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...TD LONG TERM...TD AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/TD MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/TD

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