Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241950 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak backdoor cold front will stall over Downeast areas by late tonight... then lift back northeast a warm front Monday. High pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere will prevail Monday night and most of Tuesday. Another backdoor cold front will then cross from Northern Maine late Tuesday afternoon becoming stationary along the Downeast coast late Tuesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Latest radar ref imagery does show a few lgt shwr returns this hr ovr far NE Aroostook county, but most of the FA remains capped this aftn for any hi cnvctn with capping zone between 8 to 12kft MSL. We did leave a mention of isold shwrs til erly eve across Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn, but most of the area will remain dry with the shwr threat ending after sunset. Otherwise, intervals of cldnss will persist across the N ovrngt as a weak backdoor cold front settles S to interior Downeast ME...becoming stationary by daybreak. Oceanic ST and fog will brush the Downeast coast with patchy fog further inland, otherwise slightly drier sfc dwpt air behind the weak cold front should keep fog from forming ovr Nrn ptns of the FA. Remaining cldnss across the N and E will exit the Rgn by midday as the front rapidly lifts NE as a warm front toward the Gaspe Peninsula, allowing for all lower trrn lctns N of the immediate coast to reach well into the 80s again by mid aftn, with a shallow aftn sea breeze keeping hi temps from reaching 80 deg alg the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front will remain just to our north Monday night into Tuesday morning, then sag south just a bit Tuesday afternoon. Hence warm and muggy conditions will continue through Tuesday night, though far northern areas may see a bit of relief depending on how far south the front makes it Tuesday. This front may allow a few showers or thunderstorms to pop up Tuesday afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Scattered showers arrive Wednesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Showers will develop by afternoon ahead of this boundary, but warm air aloft and increasing cloud cover will limit instability and thunderstorm potential for all but the north. Highs will be cooler on Wednesday, especially for northern Maine, but it will still very muggy since dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The aforementioned cold front will cross the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing showers for the overnight hours. This front will be followed by high pressure, along with much more seasonable temperatures and dewpoints. Highs will be in the 60s in most areas by late in the week, with some 50s possible in the northwest. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, with colder readings in the usual sheltered valleys in the North Woods. The high should keep conditions dry through the end of the week, though it should be noted that the 12z GFS shows some rain coming in on Friday and Friday night with an upper trough. Have kept just slight chance PoPs for as neither the ECMWF nor the Canadian match this solution. Much of the long range guidance continues to show Hurricane Maria remaining well to our south through much of the period before being shunted eastward next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR thru Mon. Cannot rule out a brief pd of MVFR SC clgs at KFVE and/or a pd of MVFR/IFR oceanic ST clgs/fog at KBHB late tngt and/or erly Mon morn. Not enough confidence though to mention low clds or fog for Downeast TAF sites given that none occurred late last ngt when fcstd. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but more widespread activity is expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning as a cold front crosses the region. MVFR conditions are possible in any precipitation.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No hdlns ovr our waters attm. Wv hts may begin building close to SCA thresholds ovr our outer MZs late Mon aftn. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts with primary wv pds ranging from 10 to 14 sec. The paddle risk beach statement will remain in effect until 8pm EDT. SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet next week, mainly in long period swell from Hurricane Maria, so a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3SM at times.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...VJN/Hastings Marine...VJN/Hastings

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