Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 121926 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 326 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE GENERAL LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM HE WEST SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE USED THE GFS FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE MOSG25. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE USED A MIX OF THE SUPER BLEND AND MOSG25 BIAS CORRECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE MOSG25 BIAS CORRECTED. DEWPOINT FROM THE SUPER BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12Z MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SHWR BAND AND ASSOCIATED S/WV CROSSING OUR FA FROM QB PROV SUN EVE THEN PRIOR RUNS... MEANING A LITTLE MORE QPF WILL BE FCST FOR THE MON 00Z-06Z TM FRAME THAN PRIOR FCST UPDATES... BUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHWRS SHOULD MOVE S AND E OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK MON. SUBSEQUENTLY...POPS BEGIN MSLY IN THE HIGH LIKELY CAT WITH LOW CATEGORICAL OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA SUN EVE...THEN TAPERS OFF BY LATE SUN NGT. GIVEN THAT MOST... IF NOT ALL FCST SOUNDING SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CAPE...KEPT THUNDER MSLY OUT OF THIS PD. WITH AN INJECTION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER MSLY ABV BL LOW TO MID LVL AIR BEHIND THE S/WV FOR MON...WE DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THRU ERLY MON AFTN...WITH A BETTER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH A WEAK MCV FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS MSLY DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY OF MORE GENERAL CLDNSS AND SHWRS WILL BE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE AS THE MAIN S/WV TROF BEGINS TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN...BUT EVEN HERE...THE SPREAD AMONG THE DIFFERENT MODELS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO AWARD MUCH HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WERE ABLE TO RAISE HI TEMPS FOR MON A FEW DEG F...SPCLY ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN RN FREE THE LONGEST. MILD OVRNGT LOW TEMPS BOTH SUN NGT AND MON NGT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LATE NGT PATCHY FOG OVR THE REGION AS TEMPS REACH CLOSE TO FCST DEWPOINT TEMPS. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE COOLER.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SOME DISCREPANCY REMAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z SUITE OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GLOBAL PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ITS TREND OF SLOWING THE FRONT UP ON WEDNESDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. THE INTERESTING THING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HRS FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME, DECIDED TO USE A BLENDED APCH TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND GO W/60% FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SHOW THINGS STARTING TO DRY OUT W/THE FRONT MOVING TO THE MAINE COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT SINCE THE CHANCES LOOK <30%, DECISION WAS TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AND STAY W/SHOWERS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE GOING W/ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS DOWN. STILL UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STILL REMAINS TO THE W OF THE REGION AND ANY HEATING DURING THE DAY W/LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING DOES LOOK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY W/SOME LIGHTLY COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. WE ARE NOT TALKING ANYTHING DRAMATIC BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL FOR MID JULY FOR MAINE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: LOW MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MORN IN SHWRS AND PATCHY FOG...THEN MOST SITES VFR LATER MON MORN INTO AFTN...XCPT LOWER IN ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWRS LATER MON AFTN AND EVE. VSBYS LOWERING TO LOW MVFR/IFR AT MOST TAF SITES MON NGT INTO TUE MORN IN PATCHY FOG AND SHWRS...IMPROVING TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LATER TUE WITH CONTD SHWRS IN THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO INITIALIZE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. WILL REDUCE MODEL WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT DUE TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL WITH FORECASTER ADJUSTED WINDS TO INITIALIZE WAVES. WITH WIND SPEED WELL BELOW 10 KNOTS COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY DOMINATE BY INCOMING LONGER PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS. FROM SPECTRAL INFORMATION FROM 44027 APPEARS TO BE LONGER PERIOD GROUP AROUND 8-9/SECONDS AND SECONDARY GROUP 6-7/SECONDS. BOTH OF THESE SWELL GROUPS PRODUCING WAVES OF ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET. EXPECT LONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATE IN THIS PERIOD BUT EXPECT WAVES TO STAY 3 FEET OR LOWER THROUGH SUNDAY. SPRING HIGH TIDE OCCURS TONIGHT 2325 EDT (BAR HARBOR)...HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AND WAVE PERIODS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY OVERWASH ISSUES. SHORT TERM: IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUTER MZS050-051...BUT ONSET TIME WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO STABLE BL LAPSE RATES SLOWING DOWN SRLY GRAD WINDS. WE ONLY WENT WITH ABOUT 65 TO 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE VALUES...WITH THE 65 PERCENT BEGINNING THE SHORT RANGE SUN NGT...THEN MERGING TO 80 PERCENT BY TUE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN

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