Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271957 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 257 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF-SHORE BASED ON THE NAM ... GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECWMF FOR POPS... CLOUDS AND QPF. HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO COLDER AIR MASS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO WRN ME. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF ME...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...INTO WRN PA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SAT MRNG THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. BY SAT EVNG...THE LOW MOVES INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR....THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO ERN NY. EARLY SUN MRNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY...EXTEND THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO NH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST....WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6HRS TO 12 HRS BEHIND THE GFS. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST FOR HRLY TEMP/DP...WND/POP/SKY. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. USED HPCGRIDS FOR QPF...ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE LAST 12HRS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER ARE ABOUT 9 HRS OUT OF FAZE WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO. THE GFS SHOWS A WRM FRONT ACROSS ERN ME...ECMWF WRN ME...MID DAY THE GFS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...ME INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF WARM FRONT TO ERN ME. BY EARLY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NW ME. THE ECMWF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW ME BY MID DAY MON. BY MON EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF OF ME...THE ECMWF BY TUE MRNG. BOTH BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOW A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC THAT WILL CROSS NRN ME EARLY TUE MRNG...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MRNG. BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. WED MNRG THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO WRN ME...FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF. INTO SRN MAINE...FROM AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BRINGING THE TRIPLE POINT INTO WRN MAINE WED MRNG. THE GFS MOVES ITS FRONT THROUGH BY WED EVNG...THE ECMWF MID DAY THURS. THE GFS KEEPS US UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT PERIODS END. THE ECWMF MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MAINE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN VFR BY MID EVENING. SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NRN ME AT THE START OF THE PERIOD REDUCING THE PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO IFR AFFECTING FVE...CAR...PQI THROUGH THE EARLY EVNG HRS. MVFR BECMG IFR CONDITIONS SUN MRNG AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IMPROVING TO MVFR ALL SITES SUN AFTERNOON...TO VFR BGR AND BHB BY END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE GROUP IS SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM (7-8 FEET/10-11 SECONDS) GENERATED AHEAD OF TODAYS COASTAL STORM. THIS WAVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOCAL WAVE GROUP FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO SUBSIDE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON

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