Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190157 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 957 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 935 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE CAN TAKE THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE NGT. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR FOR A FEW NRN AND ERN LCTNS OVR THE NEXT HR OR TWO...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE HEAVIEST RNFL WITH THIS S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AGAIN...MSLY UPWARDS OVR THE NE PTN OF THE REGION...TO THE 00-06Z RNFL TOTAL BASED ON RADAR STP ESTIMATES. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS...DWPTS AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED THRU THE OVRGNT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND BIASES FROM THE PREV FCST. FCST OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SUN MORN REMAIN UNCHGD ATTM. ORGNL DISC: AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REALITY IS JUST A COLD FRONT AWAY. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING QUEBEC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BRINGING ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SE SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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