Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160738 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL MAINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE FA TDY FROM THE WSW...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY E OF THE REGION BY MID AFTN...AND EVEN BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS LATE THIS AFTN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MSLY RANGE FROM 0.08 TO 0.15 INCHES...ENOUGH TO GO WITH MAX POPS BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO CLD CVR AND SHWRS MAY HAVE BETTER RECOVERY WITH LMTD SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...BUT STILL A FEW DEG BLO SEASONAL NORMS. OTHERWISE...WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG AND LGT WINDS TNGT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM THE OH VLY SETTLES OVR THE REGION... THE PROSPECTS FOR PATCHY LATE NGT FOG EXISTS DUE TO REMNANT GROUND MOISTURE FROM TDY`S SHWRS. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND STALL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN ZONES THAT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM TO THE MID 60S. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS SOME STEADY RAIN INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THURSDAY MORNING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO DATE. PRECIPITATION ON MOUNTAINS SUCH AS KATAHDIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE NEAR 50F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HARD FREEZE IN NORTHERN ZONES AND A FROST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ALLAGASH WILL BE THE COLD SPOT WITH LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS A FEW READINGS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DOWN EAST COAST WILL BE ON THE OTHER EXTREME WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY UNDER A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MORE FROST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO MUCH WARMER LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK PRETTY SOLID...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF MAINE DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN THE FAR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: INITIALLY VFR ERLY THIS MORN...THEN MSLY MVFR MID MORN THRU ERLY AFTN MAINLY FOR NRN TAF SITES IN LOW CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES LOWER TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT BRINGING MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR VSBYS TO A FEW TAF SITES LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY. MVFR TEMPO IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. LONG PD SWELL FROM EDOUARD...WELL OUT IN THE OPEN ATLC BEGINS ARRIVING TDY...WITH SLOWLY BUILDING WV HTS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY LATE TNGT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90-95 PERCENT OF WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN THE SWELL NATURE OF THE WVS. SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EDOUARD MAY REACH 5 FT BY WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET SCA CRITERIA LATER THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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