Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221456 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WILL DRAW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW MOVING EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BROAD SLOW MOVG AREA OF LOW PRES CNTRD NR THE SWRN COAST OF MAINE AT 12Z WED IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PD OF COOL AND DAMP WX TO THE AREA. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK SLOWLY EWRD WED INTO THU REACHING A POSN JUST SSE OF THE SW TIP OF NS BY 12Z THU. A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER 500 MB TROF SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NW OF THE LOW CNTR THRU THU W/ HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE E AND NE. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LGT TO MDT BUT THE PROLONGED PD SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES E AND NE BY LATE THU. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND THIS IS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL WET AND COOL DAYS IN STORE W/ DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BLO SEASONAL NORMS. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE WED NGT/ERLY THU COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW W/ AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM PSBL... THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY BEGIN LOOSING ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA BY LATE THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SLOW MOVG PESKY LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABV FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE PICTURE THU NGT AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SSEWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION BUILDS EWRD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BRISK WNDS AND CHILLY TEMPS W/ SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N AND E THRU THU EVE. BY ERLY FRI AM...WNDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH W/ CLRG SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO CREST THE FA FRI AFTN W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI EVE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT THEN THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE ADVERTISES THE NXT SYSTEM IN THIS PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PTRN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER SAT. THE USUAL MODEL DIFFS EXIST W/ THE GFS MOVG THIS SYSTEM THRU QUICKER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF... THESE UNCERTAINTIES RESULT IN MAINLY CHC POPS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON W/ TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY JUST A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT...ALSO LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: A SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS TO THE REGION WED THRU THU... HIGH PRES WILL BRING DRIER CONDS ALONG W/ AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI NGT W/ ANOTHER SLOW MOVG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA W. MORE UNSETTLED CONDS BY LATER SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED BLO SCA LEVELS WED AS LOW PRES W/ A VRY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT MOVES OVR THE WATERS. STRONG SCA CONDS WILL DVLP LATE WED INTO WED NGT AND THEN CONT THU AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES JUST E OF THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... A PROLONGED PD OF LGT TO OCNLY MDT RAIN FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED SPRING LEVELS BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BTWN 1-2 INCHES ARE PSBL FROM LATER TODAY INTO THU ACROSS THE FAR E AND NERN AREAS W/ LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE S AND W. THESE AMOUNTS...SPREAD OUT OVR A SEVERAL DAY PD...WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN RIVER/STREAMS RISING AGAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR LARGER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. SMALLER AND FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS/STREAMS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. A GREAT DEAL WILL DEPEND ON OVERALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. ATTM...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW HYDROLOGY...KHW

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