Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280519 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 119 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas on Thursday. The front will slowly slide south Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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120 am update... Cdfnt is now sitting on our doorstep with showers along with an embedded tstm appchg wrn zones at this time. Hv lowered pops acrs the north but wl continue with isold thunder acrs portions of the North Woods and central Highlands for the ovrngt as storms appch fm Canada. Quick update to bring temps and tds in line with current obs with no other major chgs needed attm. Previous Discussion... For Thursday, the cold front is forecast to slowly slide s and then stall across the downeast region Thursday afternoon. Activity is forecast to set up again later in the morning right into the afternoon, first across northern 1/2 of the CWA and then down across the Central Highlands and Downeast region. Atmosphere appears to be a bit more favorable especially for the central and downeast areas. Instability increases dramatically w/CAPE values hitting 2000+ joules and 0-6km shear around 20+ kts. Strong convergence along the front will allow for organized cells w/some becoming strong or even severe. 0-3km lapse rates are forecast to be 7.5 c/km w/mid level lapse rates hitting 6.5 c/km which is favorable for possible severe is cells can get going. Will go ahead and add enhanced wording for heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. In the stronger cells, redevelopment of storms could lead to a flash flood potential w/heavy rainfall rates. Again, the best potential attm looks to be across the central and downeast areas from Millinocket and Greenville into the Bangor- Calais region. Afternoon temps will warm well into the 80s in these areas w/dewpoints in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is expected to stall across the outer Gulf of Maine Friday Night. Low pressure is then expected to move northeast along the front. Showers are expected in coastal areas from this system. High pressure is then expected to build in from the west Saturday with dry conditions. Dry weather is also expected Sunday as the high pressure system moves across New England. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will move off-shore late Sunday. A cold front is expected to approach from the north Monday with some showers possible in northern areas Monday and Tuesday while the south will remain dry. Another cold front will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday with more showers possible later Wednesday and Thursday as the front moves through. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at most terminals next 24 hours. Exception may be BHB this morning with IFR vsbys forecast to develop in the next svrl hours, continuing through 12Z. MVFR restrictions expected in fog after 00z tonight with potential for IFR/LIFR toward end of taf valid time. At BGR may see MVFR vsbys between 03z and 06z Fri in southerly flow along stalled frontal boundary. Further to the north, expect VCTS at any point after 18z this afternoon. Any terminal experiencing -tsra will likely see lower restrictions and variable conditions. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday at KBGR and KBHB while VFR conditions are expected in the north. VFR conditions are expected all areas Sunday through Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Thursday. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy fog overnight into early Thursday. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms could reduce visibilities Thursday. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds through Saturday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to initialize grids through Saturday then transition to the Wave Watch III. WWIII continues to show a high bias with boundary conditions feeding into the near shore so have lowered wave heights by 1 foot through the period. Expect primary wave system Friday into Saturday to be wind wave from low pressure passing to the east. For the remainder of the period expect longer period incoming swell to dominate as wind speeds remain below 10 knots. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Farrar/Bloomer Marine...Farrar/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.