Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220131 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 931 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 931 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS MAINE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE BY FRI EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE LOW THAT STRETCH FROM PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RUC KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND ALSO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES...RADAR...AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING SUBTLE FEATURES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SOME MINOR FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN SPOTS. SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE, AROUND 300 J/KG, OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND COULD BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TO CENTRAL AREAS LATE ON FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG. ANY CLOUDS/FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN OTHERWISE FAIR WEEKEND EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL FOR SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO WARM UP FOR SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT INCREASED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BUT STILL LIKELY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT COOLER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WE CONTINUED TO GO CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL OUTPUT OVER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS, AS 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUSTIFY GOING WARMER THAN MOS, WHICH TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT BEGIN TO HAVE ISSUES AROUND WEDNESDAY AS TO WHETHER WE GET A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME OR STAY IN THE WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A BIT LONGER. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG..ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ON THE WATERS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/FITZSIMMONS

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