Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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779 FXUS61 KCAR 200411 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1211 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the area this evening followed by high pressure on Thursday. A stronger cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the area Friday. Canadian high pressure will build over the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Update 12:00 AM: Have adjusted sky cover from latest satellite. Also adjusted wind, temperature, and dew points from latest observations. Previous discussion... A weak cold front across Quebec will slide across the region tonight and then off the down east coast by early Thursday morning. We could still see an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern and central areas through early this evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies overnight. It will remain on the muggy side again tonight, as only slightly drier air is expected behind the front. Expect low clouds and areas of fog to once again impact the down east Maine coast ahead of the front. The evening shift may need to consider a dense fog advisory for the coast later tonight. Lows tonight will once again remain on the mild side with lows generally ranging from lower 60s north and lower to mid 60s down east. Thursday will be another warm day but slightly less humid by afternoon, as the area remains between the front to our south and a stronger cold front approaching central Canada. It should be a mainly dry day however, with only an outside chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm across central and western areas later in the afternoon. Highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s across much of the region away from the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few thundershowers may be around central and western areas Thursday evening. Otherwise, Thursday night will be partly cloudy and humid as one weak cold front moves away to the south and another cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Most of the guidance now agrees on the cold front on Friday pushing through around midday. A few showers may be across the north Friday morning as the front pushes in. Some showers and thunderstorms may then be scattered across central areas through midday as the front pushes through. The front will then push offshore late in the afternoon as some drier air begins to slide in from the northwest. A weak secondary front will come through Friday night. Canadian high pressure will then push some significantly cooler and drier air in from the northwest on Saturday with skies mostly sunny over the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will bring a dry day across the region on Sunday. However, a corridor of moisture extending from the Great Lakes, east across southern New England along a frontal boundary may keep the Downeast region mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon. Our focus early next week will be on a storm system approaching from a trough over the Great Lakes. This will bring increasing clouds Monday followed by a chance for some rain Tuesday into Wednesday, especially Downeast. There is still some uncertainty how far north this system comes. The new GFS brings it far enough north to bring rain across the entire area Tuesday into Wednesday. The ECMWF and Canadian GEM, however, have the system further south with our area remaining dry. Either way, it looks like significantly cooler weather is likely through early next week with an upper level trough in the northeast. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR across the northern terminals tonight. Expect low clouds and fog to impact KBGR/KBHB later tonight with IFR, and even LIFR conditions KBHB in low clouds and fog. Conditions should be mainly VFR all terminals on Thursday. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the area Thursday night through Saturday. The exception will be in any showers or thunderstorms Friday, mainly over central areas. VFR conditions should continue into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below advisory levels through Thursday. Widespread fog is expected across the waters overnight into early Thursday morning with visibility less than 1 nm, and locally near zero. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Thursday night through Saturday. Winds should remain light on Sunday as high pressure builds over. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Mignone/ Marine...Mignone/

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