Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200521 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track north of the region overnight drawing a cold front across the maritimes. High pressure will build south of the region Monday then slide southeast of the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1220 AM update...No significant changes were needed with this update as the forecast is in good shape. Only made some slight adjustments to temps, winds, and sky cover to match current conditions. Previous discussion...Strong low pressure will lift north toward Labrador drawing a cold front across the maritimes overnight. Aloft, a disturbance rotating around an upper level low over Quebec province will cross the region. Colder air will be drawn across the region overnight in the wake of the cold front on gusty west winds. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected across the region overnight. Isolated to scattered snow showers will remain possible across mostly the north and mountains overnight with little or no snow accumulation. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected across northern areas overnight with decreasing clouds Downeast. Overnight low temperatures will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid 20s interior Downeast with upper 20s to around 30 along the Downeast coast. High pressure will build south of the area on Monday as a weak upper trough slides across the north. The trough to the north will bring a mostly cloudy sky over northern areas and partial cloudiness Downeast. Otherwise, Monday will be a dry and cold day with a moderate westerly breeze continuing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure moving across the state will bring drier weather Mon night into Tue evening. Clear skies Mon night may yield to an area of mid-level clouds Tue AM into afternoon, before further clearing Tue evening. However, gradually increasing clouds are anticipated Tue night as the next period of disturbed weather approaches. This system appears to be a somewhat complex event, with an upper-level trough and surface front coming in from the west, while a low moves in from the mid-Atlantic. Snow showers associated with the front currently look likely to reach the western border by early Wed AM, and spread eastward across central and northern areas thru the morning. Meanwhile, rain from the south should reach the coast around or just after daybreak Wed and spread across Downeast and the Penobscot Valley, and up into eastern Aroostook by the afternoon. As the cold front pushes across the state, the bulk of the rain and snow shower activity looks likely to clear out late, though isolated activity may linger Wed evening in the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any lingering snow showers will depart Wed night as drier and colder air moves in on moderate NW winds. Highs for Thanksgiving will be about 10F lower than Wed and about 5F below normal, though weak high pressure and upper ridging will allow for some partly to mostly sunny skies. An upper-level shortwave and associated reinforcing cold front will cross the area Thu night into Fri AM, bringing clouds back to the CWA and keeping high temps similar to Thu. Scattered snow showers are possible with this reinforcing front, mainly across northern Maine and the western highlands. There is good agreement on a broad and deep upper trough moving over/south of Hudson Bay and then stalling over Quebec for Sat into early next week. Currently, the most confident time for precip (snow north, rain/mix south) appears to be Sat PM into Sat night, with much of the CWA in likely POPs during that time. Chances for precip will continue into Sun and perhaps beyond, but will depend highly on the evolution and progression of shortwave troughs and surface features around the broad upper- level trough. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the north and mountains overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the remainder of the region through early morning, with VFR conditions then through the remainder of the night. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region Monday. West winds will gust to between 30 and 35 mph overnight, with gusts up to around 30 mph Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tue evening. Then by 03z Wed, patchy fog may form from KBHB thru KHUL as onshore winds push moisture inland. Widespread reductions to MVFR and IFR CIGs and vsbys are expected Wed AM into Wed evening as rain and snow showers spread across the state. Improvement to VFR conditions expected Wed night, though any lingering snow showers could create locally IFR conditions. VFR expected for all sites Thu into early Thu night, but from 12am Friday into early Fri afternoon, some scattered snow showers may caused reduced conditions for KPQI to KFVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have transitioned the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory for the intracoastal waters which runs through Monday afternoon, while extending the Gale Warning through 4 AM across the remainder of the waters. Winds could diminish to SCA late tonight into Monday morning, but could increase to a gale again Monday afternoon with strong wind gusts due to cold advection and deep mixing. SHORT TERM: SCA to possibly Gale W-NW`ly winds winds are expected Mon night, shifting SW`ly and decreasing some Tue AM. Patchy fog is possible on moist southerly flow. Seas may also briefly drop below SCA levels Tue AM, but a quick return to SCA SW`ly winds and seas is expected for Tue PM into Tue night. Seas may build into the 7 to 10 ft range Tue night. A shift to fresh NW`ly winds is expected by Wed afternoon as a front pushes off the coast, and seas will gradually drop. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Hastings Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Bloomer/Hastings/Kredensor Marine...Bloomer/Hastings/Kredensor

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