Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 032001 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 401 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURE WILL INITIALIZE WITH THE SUPER BLEND BUT WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY TRIGGER SOME SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SUN NIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS OF NOW, SO KEPT IT SHWRS. LOOKS LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SFC FEATURES JUST TO THE NORTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS TUESDAY PM AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN PUSH THROUGH THE NEXT COOL FRONT NEXT THURS, WITH MORE SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. OVERALL, GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF, AND CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN - BUT THE CANADIAN ALSO SPINS UP A COASTAL/TROPICAL LOW LATE IN ITS RUN, SO IT WASN`T STRONGLY CONSIDERED. IN GENERAL ANY EDITS TO POPS AND PRECIP TIMING WERE MADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN VEER NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST/NORTHEAST...AND THEN STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY FROM 1 TO 3 FT. SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. EXPECT LIGHT DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. FOR WAVES: WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE SOUTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL (AROUND 1 FOOT/11 SECONDS). AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WIND WAVE (AROUND 2 FEET/5 SECONDS) WILL BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BERDES SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...BERDES/MIGNONE MARINE...BERDES/MIGNONE

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