Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 261909 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS BROUGHT WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. MODIFIED POPS/WX GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/TD/WNDS. BUMPED DOWN WINDS ABOUT 3 KTS OVER COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A COUPLE FEET AND ABOUT 5 KTS BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED...THEREFORE USED LOCAL WAVE GUIDANCE FOR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6Z...MODIFIED NAWAVE 4 FOR 6Z THROUGH 00Z. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE PRIMARY THREATS CONTINUING FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BEING LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THAT SAID...CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS A BIT LOW. IT HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR PART OF THE EQUATION HAS INCREASED. HIGH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...A DEEP WARM LAYER...DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH ALL BE IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL COVER WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HUMID NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ADVECT A MARINE LAYER WITH SOME DRIZZLE. RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE 60S TOWARDS THE MID 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL HANCOCK AND THE PENOBSCOT BAY AREA WHERE FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA IN CONCERT WITH MAX HEATING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MORE CAPE AND SHEAR THAN WEDNESDAY. THUS...THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT MORE TO WINDS AND HAIL MORE THAN JUST THE HEAVY RAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIKE WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL LEAVE COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE EVENING AND GET RID OF ANY RESIDUAL FOG. A DRIER AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 80S AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT UPPER 80S OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENTRY TIME INTO THE STATE AND THE FACT IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OVER THE PAST DAYS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT MAY CROSS FIRST AND STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. THIS COULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT AND MAXIMIZE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS ZONE AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DEPART THE DOWN EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS ECMWF/GEMS TIMING OVER THE PAST DAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE RETURN TO A CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. FROST IS A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IN GENERAL VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. EXPECT IFR TO LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHOWERS AND TSTM THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AT ALL SITES AFTER PCPN ENDS...LOWERING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE MORNING TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN BUILDING AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO THE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND RETURN SATURDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE NEED FOR ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...NORTON/MCW MARINE...NORTON/MCW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.