Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
020 FXUS61 KCAR 130431 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1131 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE... CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS ALLOWED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...HAVE HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS UPDATE. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE REMNANTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROF ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS SNOW ALONG THE TROF OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LESSER SNOWS WILL OCCUR FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE TROF. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A NORLUN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, THEN GIVE WAY TO A SECONDARY LOW WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE A VERY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS WILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THIS BAND OF SNOW FROM ROUGHLY BANGOR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PENOBSCOT BAY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS, AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE NUMBERS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS ONE HEADS NORTH AND EAST WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY AND LOCATIONS SUCH AS HOWLAND SEEING ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST. HAVE GONE AHEAD AN UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR THE BANGOR AREA DOWN TO THE COAST, BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE BAND OF SNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER COULD MAKE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS. AWAY FROM THE SNOW BAND, IT`LL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE COAST. MUCH OF THE REGION AWAY FROM OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS WILL ONLY GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, WITH FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINE LUCKY TO GET ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE BANGOR/MT DESERT AREAS SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE NORLUN TROUGH SETUP ACROSS THAT REGION. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPS AND BRISK WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES WHERE WIND CHILL READINGS MAY REACH 40 BELOW ZERO. DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGIONS WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW FOR ALL AREAS, BUT LOOKS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS S-SE WINDS DRAW 35-40F AIR ONSHORE. JUST HOW LONG THE PERIOD OF RAIN WILL LAST DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 12Z GFS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CMC TO THE EAST AND THE ECMWF TO THE WEST. THE FCST LEANS IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH BOTH HAVE A SHORTWAVE THAT ALLOWS THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE A FURTHER WEST TRACK, THOUGH THEY STILL DISAGREE SOME ON THE EXACT TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, WHICH CAN BE REFINED GOING FORWARD, IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH PSBL GALE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE. THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, BUT LT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THU AS THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA. THU NIGHT INTO FRI LOOKS CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES AND RIDGING, THOUGH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATER FRI OR SAT. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOWNEAST...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE BANGOR/BAR HARBOR AREA SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTAL MARINE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA CRITERIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002- 005-006-011-015>017-031-032. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001- 003-004-010. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ015-016-029. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050- 051.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.