Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290222 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1022 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening. An upper level disturbance will move across Maine Wednesday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday night. Low pressure is expected to pass south of the area Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... .1020 PM Update. Adjusted fog has begin to develop across the area, updated to add areas of fog to the forecast. .Previous discussion. H5 trof across Quebec will move southeast toward northern Maine tonight and then across the region during Wednesday. Short wave energy ejecting around the upper trof will cross the region this evening while a southern branch short wave passes to south of the Gulf of Maine later tonight. Some light precipitation associated with the northern short wave will cross the region into early this evening, while another band of light precipitation skirts the downeast coast a little later tonight. Precipitation across the north will be in the form of some light rain/snow showers this evening, possibly mixed with a bit of sleet, before ending in the form of snow later tonight. There could be an inch or so of accumulation, especially across the St John Valley. Across downeast, expect mainly rain showers. Skies will remain cloudy overnight with soundings showing plenty of moisture below H7. The abundant cloud cover will once again keep temperatures from falling too much from current afternoon readings with upper 20s north and lower 30s downeast. H5 trof crosses the region Wednesday. Soundings still showing quite a bit of moisture between H8 and H9 level so will still be looking at quite a bit of cloud cover across the area but certainly may see a few sunny breaks from time to time. Still couldn`t rule out a brief rain/snow shower as the upper trof crosses the region. Temperatures on Wednesday should be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sct sn shwrs msly ovr Nrn ptns of the region will gradually diminish Wed ngt into Thu as the upper trof slowly moves E of the region. Winds will be fairly brisk out of the NNW durg these pds. The airmass behind this system is msly non-arctic, so temps...spcly hi temps should recover closer to climo values, spcly by Fri, when msly sunny skies and lgtr winds are xpctd. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Longer range models tdy are in better agreement in showing some impact with ovrngt and mrng snfl for msly Cntrl and spcly Downeast ptns of the region later Fri ngt into Sat and only a grazing impact to Nrn ptns of the region as low pres from the Mid Atlc states moves E to well S of Nova Scotia. Max PoPs were constructed in this manner wil likely PoPs ovr SW ptns of the region to mid chc PoPs ovr the far N and NE. A little to erly to speculate about sn amts with this system attm, but a consensus total QPF with this event would not likely exceed wntr wx adv thresholds ovr Downeast areas, and that`s if the event were all sn with decent liq to sn ratios. Steady sn/rn will taper to sct rn/sn shwrs Sat aftn and eve, contg as isold to sct ngt/erly morn sn shwrs and late morn to aftn rn/sn shwrs on Sun as an upper trof crosses the region. Mon and Tue attm looks to be fair with near seasonal temps. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Poor flight conditions will prevail at the terminals tonight with ceilings expected to be below 010. Also expect a little snow shower activity to affect mainly the northern terminals through early this evening. IFR conditions due to low ceilings will prevail early Wednesday fallowed by improving conditions to MVFR by afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs for Nrn TAF sites and VFR for Downeast sites xpctd Wed ngt thru Thu morn, then VFR all sites Thu aftn thru Fri eve. The next chc of MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys for our TAF sites will be late Fri ngt into Sat with sn/mixed precip. Conditions should then improve to VFR ovrngt Sat and then cont so on Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels through Wednesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: The next sig chc of SCA conditions will be Wed ngt and Thu with llvl cold advcn NNW wind pattern. Aftwrds... winds an seas will be at marginal or below SCA thresholds with the greatest uncertainty Fri ngt into Sat depending on the track and intensity of sfc low pres tracking E from the Mid Atlc states into the open N Atlc well S of Nova Scotia. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norton/VJN Marine...Norton/VJN

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