Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131748 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 148 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 145 PM UPDATE...SKY CONDITIONS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO BRING MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CWA. POPS WERE ADJUSTED MAINLY FOR PLACEMENT INTO THE WSW AREAS AS THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED HIGHER RETURNS(25DBZ) PUSHING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN MAINE. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO WORK THEIR WAY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN BEGIN ITS TREK TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS PRIMARY LOW WILL WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A SECONDARY LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA COAST OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS OUR ENTIRE REGION REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO EASTERN REGIONS BY LATE EVENING. GIVEN THE RAPID FORWARD PROGRESSION, THERE`S NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH PERHAPS UP TO HALF AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND COASTAL DOWNEAST, AS THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE, RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS THAT THE S/WV THAT BRINGS SHWRS TO THE REGION SAT NGT WILL BE ENE OF THE REGION BY SUN MORN. LLVL COLD ADVCN BEHIND THIS S/WV WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A PD OF BKN-OVC SC ACROSS THE NRN HLF OF THE FA THRU MIDDAY BEFORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE THE APCH OF THE SFC HI BRINGS PTLY SUNNY SKIES. SRN PTNS OF THE FA WILL BE PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY ALL DAY. HI TEMPS SUN WILL BE BLO AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...AND WITH THE SFC HI SETTLING OVR THE FA FROM THE SW SUN NGT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN CHILLY BLO AVG OVRNGT LOWS. UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES AND LGT W WINDS...HI TEMPS MON SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR TO JUST ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATEST MODELS ALSO A AGREE THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVG S/WV FROM FROM THE MIDWEST TRACKING ENE THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS WILL APCH OUR FA FROM THE SW MON NGT BRINGING INCREASING CLDNSS WITH A CHC OF SHWRS TO NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON NGT...SPREADING TO ERN/SRN PTNS BY TUE MORN. WITH LMTD MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHAT TM PD RN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE FA...FOR NOW WE KEPT MAX POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS EVENT. CAN SEE POPS EVENTUALLY RAISED TO LIKELY CAT AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT IN ANY EVENT...SHWRS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD ONLY LAST 2 TO 4 HRS WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE MILDER THAN THE ONE PRECEDING...HI TEMPS TUE SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO MON HI TEMPS SPCLY IF WE GET SOME AFTN TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE. MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT INTO TUE NGT WITH CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT W WIND. AFTWRDS...A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN WILL APCH FROM THE NW BY WED MORN...AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE WED AFTN THRU WED EVE. TMG OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES FROM ABOUT 6 HRS SOONER WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION TO 6 HRS SLOWER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION THEN THE TMG OUTLINED ABV...BUT THE TMG OF THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS CATCHING UP SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS OVR THIS PAST MODEL RUN. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS TIED UP WITH A STRONG MID LVL VORTEX SLIDING EWRD THRU CNTRL QB...MOISTURE WILL BE LMTD...WITH ANY SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISOLD...MSLY ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA. STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BRISK AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY THU MORN AND COOLER HI TEMPS BOTH THU AND FRI. ALTHOUGH WE SHOW HI TEMPS IN THE MID 50S N TO ARND 60 DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS...ACTUAL HI TEMPS COULD BE 5 DEG COOLER IF MODEL PROJECTIONS OF FCST AFTN 925 MB TEMPS OF LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO DEG C ARE CORRECT...BUT FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT BOTH DAYS ARE FAR IN THE LONG RANGE...HI TEMPS ARE A LITTLE BIASED TOWARD CLIMO THUS AND FRI IN THE EVENT THE MODELS ARE OVER ZEALOUSLY TO COLD IN THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, AND THEN CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FT THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST. KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING TO IFR, WITH CEILINGS OF AROUND 500 FT POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 4SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY AFTER 09Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES SUN THRU WED...XCPT FOR A PD OF MVFR CLGS FOR NRN TAF SITES SUN MORN INTO ERLY AFTN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY, WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING. MEANWHILE, WAVES WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED SUN THRU TUE...WITH WINDS AND WVS APCHG MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA WITH NW WINDS MSLY OVR THE OUTER WATERS WED AND THU. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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