Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251553 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1153 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the west of Maine will build into the area through Monday morning. The high will move out into the Atlantic Monday afternoon. An occluded front will cross the area Tuesday. Areas of low pressure will pass south of the region mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Frost is the big story tonight with all zones vulnerable except along the coast. Have lowered temperatures for the entire area in this update and introduced widespread frost terminology in the forecast. A hard freeze is probable towards northwest Aroostook where lows in the 20s are expected. No additional frost or freeze warnings will be issued for Aroostook County...northern Piscataquis and northern Somerset counties based on reasons outlined in the NWS Caribou Public Information Statement issued yesterday evening. previous discussion High pressure across Quebec province will build slowly east today. At the same time, an upper low near Labrador will move slowly east away from the region. Expect partly sunny skies across the north today and mostly sunny downeast. There may also be an isolated shower or two through midday, mainly across the St. John Valley. It will be another unseasonably chilly fall day. Highs across the north will only range from the low to mid 50s north and the mid 50s to near 60 downeast. High pressure will continue to build east tonight. The combination of mainly clear skies and light winds will result in areas of frost developing across most of the region away from the downeast coast. A frost advisory has been issued for all of central and interior downeast Maine for late tonight. Although areas of frost will also be possible across the north, no advisories will be issued there due to the termination of the program for the season. Expect lows tonight to range from the low to mid 30s north, and mid to upper 30s central and downeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper ridge axis across Lake Ontario at 12Z Monday will move east into western New England by Monday evening, and will continue to the east of the area by Tuesday morning. A surface high settles into Maine Monday morning and will move off the New England coast Monday afternoon. Low pressure across the northern Great Lakes Monday evening will drift southeast with an occlusion in western New York State Monday evening to move into western New England late Mon night and into Maine Tuesday. A weak secondary low may try to develop Tuesday. As far the sensible weather goes, Monday will be bright and sunny. After a frosty start at many inland areas, temperatures will rebound to seasonable levels in the afternoon. Clouds increase Mon night with the chance that a little light rain breaks out across the western zones between midnight and daybreak Tuesday. The increase in clouds will greatly reduce any frost potential, with about the only spots that could see any frost in the valleys near the New Brunswick valley where the clouds will be the slowest to move in late at night. Rain will move east and across the area during the day Tuesday. The rain does not look to be particularly heavy with most areas to likely receive anywhere from a tenth to a third of an inch, with the highest totals expected toward the Down East coast. The clouds and rain will highs mostly in the 50s across northern areas to the lower 60s in the Bangor area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The occlusion will move east of the area Tuesday night. Rain is expected to end by early evening for most of the CWA, but may linger till around midnight in eastern areas. Wednesday should feature a mix of sun and clouds and milder weather with above average temperatures. Although a shower can`t be ruled out, most of the day looks dry. Forecast uncertainty increases late week and upper trough moves east. There is significant model spread as to whether the low moves toward the New England coast or ends up much further south and west in the lower Ohio or tennessee Valleys. The model ensembles have significant spread, so forecaster confidence is very low. If the low is further north, a surface low could produce more showers/rain. A more southern solution would mean a dry pattern late in the week. Given the high levels of uncertainty will stick close to the ongoing forecast, which has mostly slight chance/chance PoPs late in the week. The afore mentioned uncertainty will continue into Saturday too, with the more northern solutions wet, and a more southern solution dry. Temperatures are likely to be above average late in the week into the start of the weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. Brief MVFR cigs are possible across the northern terminals through mid morning. SHORT TERM: VFR Monday into Monday night outside of any early morning river valley fog Monday morning. Conditons will lower to MVFR with pockets of IFR Tuesday as rain overspreads the region. Conditions will improve to high end MVFR or VFR by later Tue night and into Wed. Forecast confidence is very low late in the week with VFR favored, but if rain moves into the area lower ceilings are possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight although a few gusts to around 25 kt are possible today. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory might be required by late Tuesday as seas build ahead of an occluded front. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Monday for MEZ005-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/MCW/CB Marine...Duda/MCW/CB

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