Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202310 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 610 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday then move east later Tuesday. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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6:10 PM Update...A clear sky across the CWA early this evening. High pressure across Quebec and NY State will build into New England tonight. The wind will decouple later this evening with strong sfc based inversions to develop. The temperature will likely bottom out as low as 15 to 20 below in the broad nw valleys, with 10 below to zero common across the remainder of the Crown of Maine. Single digits are expected across the Downeast Region. Only minor tweaks to the temps/dew points/wind based on the 6 PM observations. Previous discussion... High pressure will cross the region tonight through early Tuesday, then begin to move east later Tuesday. Skies will remain mostly clear across the forecast area tonight through early Tuesday. Clouds will then begin to increase from the west later Tuesday afternoon in advance of an approaching occluded front. Winds will decrease early tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around zero to 15 below zero across northern areas, with readings from around zero to 10 above Bangor and Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the mid 30s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An occluded front will approach the region from the west Tuesday night and move across the State Wednesday. This will result in some snow showers and showers then becoming partly cloudy later in the day. A weak area of low pressure will move across the north Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be warmer Thursday so expect this system to produce rain showers in the north Thursday into Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is expected to build in from the northwest Thursday night and then move to the east Friday. Intense low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Friday night and then move to the west of New England during the day Saturday. This system is expected to result in snow developing across the area late Friday Night. The snow should then change to rain from south to north during the day Saturday as warmer air moves northward across the region. Rain may briefly change to snow before ending as snow showers Saturday night. Snow showers are possible as the low moves to the north of the region Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region tonight through Tuesday. Winds will decrease early tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Thursday. MVFR conditions are expected KFVE, KCAR, KPQI on Friday, otherwise expect VFR conditions. IFR conditions are expected Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Winds remains in effect for the intracoastal waters into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the waters through late tonight. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels on all the waters Tuesday. Light freezing spray is expected later tonight through early Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained wind speed. For waves: Expect southwesterly wind wave to dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Long period easterly swell (1-2 feet/10-12 seconds) will dominate Friday. A significant southerly fetch will then develop across the Gulf of Maine Saturday as intense low pressure moves to the west of the Waters. Southerly wind wave is expected to build to 10 feet/9-10 seconds by late Sunday. && .CLIMATE...
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So far this winter there have been a total of 79 days with a trace or more of snow at Caribou, and 55 days with measurable snowfall (0.1" or more). Season to date, it has been the greatest number of days with measurable snowfall since the winter of 1988-1989.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone Climate...CB

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