Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310510 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1210 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1205 AM UPDATE...RADAR IS INDICATING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ATTM. ALSO EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO RAMP UP DOWNEAST AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE MOVING ONSHORE. WIND ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT THIS HOUR, SO BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING A CONCERN. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL REPORTS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY. THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD- LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002- 005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HASTINGS/OKULSKI MARINE...HASTINGS/OKULSKI

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