Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 291419
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
A weak cold front will push off the coast today and tonight. Low
pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of
Maine early tonight. High pressure will build across the region
over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --10 AM Update: Still some patchy fog alg the immediate Washington
county coast, otherwise, from a shwr/tstm PoP perspective, the
fcst looks to be on track. Updates were made to fcst hrly temps,
dwpts, winds, and cld cvr thru this aftn into tngt, with minor,
site specific bias corrections to fcst aftn hi temps and ovrngt
Orgnl Disc: Main cdfnt looks to hv stalled btwn Bangor and Bar
Harbor as of 06z. Wk sfc low existS just to the south of Casco
Bay. This wl help reinforce convergence along the front this mrng.
As moisture pools along the front and lead s/wv moves into the
Gulf of Maine expect showers to begin to break out along the coast
around 10z this mrng. Front wl rmn in the vicinity of the coast
thru the day tda with chc pops maximizing arnd 18z this aftn.
Instability looks to be weaker than yda and hv only gone with
isold thunder this aftn due to poor lapse rates in moist airmass.
Patchy fog expected this mrng along with locally dense fog in areas
which received rain yda. Downeast zones wl be some 5-10 degrees
cooler than Thur whereas locales acrs the north wl see max temps
fairly similar to Thur. Wk sfc trof crossing northern Maine may
spark off an isold thunder this aftn for a brief pd of time.
Pcpn wl diminish drg the evng as main front pushes well offshore.
Sfc low currently located ovr the Delmarva progged to track well
south of Nova Scotia tonight and wl lkly not be a player in area`s
wx ovrngt. As has happened the previous two nights expect Downeast
and coastal areas to see patchy fog aft midnight tonight. With
north flow bringing in drier dwpts, not expecting locally dense
fog at this time.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure supported by ridging over central Canada and a trough
over eastern Canada will push across the area this weekend. This
will bring sunshine Saturday mixed with some cumulus clouds over the
north and a few high clouds Downeast. Saturday night will be mostly
clear and comfortable. Sunshine will return again on Sunday as the
high continues to build over the area. Some high cloudiness is still
possible Downeast from moisture along a frontal boundary near
Southern New England.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As we go into early next week, a bit of a split in jet stream flow
with weak ridging in central Canada and a weak trough over the Mid-
Atlantic will persist. Some moisture and weak low pressure
associated with the Mid-Atlantic trough may stray into the area on
Monday bringing a chance of showers, especially Downeast. The chance
of showers may continue into Tuesday as a weak trough very slowly
moves east of New England. Ridging will return on Wednesday.
However, a differential flow including southwesterlies near the
surface and west, northwesterlies aloft may allow for a chance of
thunderstorms across northern areas Wednesday afternoon or
evening. The differential flow including some shear will continue
on Thursday bringing another chance for thunderstorms, mainly over
the north, with an otherwise partly to mostly sunny, warm and
humid day Thursday. A cold front pushing into the area on Friday
will bring the potential for more widespread thunderstorms to the
region Friday afternoon.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions vary between VFR and IFR, specifically at
CAR, PQI and HUL. FVE expected to remain VFR as low level moisture
has dried out in wake of fropa. CAR, PQI and HUL will likely see
IFR or LIFR as a result of rain from yesterday and moclr skies.
Still expecting IFR restrictions to develop at BFR and BHB in the
next several hours, likely lifting after daybreak. VFR remainder
of TAF valid time outside of -tsra that may occur nr BGR terminal
this afternoon. Confidence is low in this occurring and have not
included in TAFs.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Saturday
into Sunday. VFR conditions will likely persist across the north
on Monday but may lower to MVFR Downeast in lower clouds and some
NEAR TERM: Expect winds and seas to remain well below SCA criteria
through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced over the waters this
morning and possibly Sat morning as well.
SHORT TERM: Winds and Seas are expected to remain below SCA
through the weekend and into early next week. Visibilities will
likely be good over the weekend but may lower on Monday with some