Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 031025 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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625 AM UPDATE... RADAR SHOWED AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE MAINE MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOWING RAIN ENDING W/IN THE NEST 2 HRS. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE W/SOME SNOW MIXED ACROSS THE FAR N AND W AS TEMPS ARE DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDY W/PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN ALLOWING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO SEEP SOUTHWARD. STAYING W/CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN MOVING ACROSS NE MAINE W/DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT. KATAHDIN REGION. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/REPORTS SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 0.56 INCHES FOR BANGOR W/CLOSE TO 1.00 INCHES FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FELL OFF AS ONE TRAVELED FURTHER N W/0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS HAVE A PLAY ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. WILL BE A TOUGH CALL TONIGHT ON WHERE TO PLACE THE MOST CLOUD COVER AS SOUNDING DATA INDICATES MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED BELOW 850MBS. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK ESE FLOW(<10KTS) SETTING UP THROUGH ABOUT 800MBS ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHILE THE COASTAL REGION STAYS W/A NNE FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT UPSLOPE AREAS WOULD BE FAVORED MOST W/MORE CLOUDS DUE TO ESE FLOW. DECIDED TO KEEP MORE CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST(BANGOR) AND LESS PERCENTAGES FOR THE WASHINGTON COUNTY REGION. THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER. ATTM, LEANED W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST W/AROUND 40 FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND THEN FILLS THIS WEEKEND AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND THEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: BASICALLY MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBGR AND KBHB WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS STAY W/MVFR. A PERIOD OF VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS W/MVFR CONDITIONS SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 625 AM UPDATE...DROPPED THE SCA AS WINDS/SEAS NOW BELOW 20 KTS/6 FT RESPECTIVELY. 3HR TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECLINE IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WIND WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/SEAS DOWN TO 2-4 FT W/A SWELL COMPONENT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI

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