Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141954 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 354 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FAR NORTH AND WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING IN CENTRAL AREAS. FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTH WITH PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE MORNING WILL BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME RIVER FOG. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WE COULD BE SEEING A SUBSTANTIAL FROST/FREEZE BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD END THE GROWING SEASON. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE W/BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE REGION MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND ECMWF KEEP THE REGION DRY W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING IN QUEBEC. DEFINITELY SOME PRETTY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT W/1000-850MB PAR ITAL THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1340M BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO DROP TO NEAR 0C ESPECIALLY BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW. IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND W/THE AFOREMENTIONED ITEMS, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES AROUND. THE LACKING INGREDIENT IS THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW GYX`S LEAD AND KEEP 15-20% POPS ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST OR FREEZE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NNW WIND OF AT LEAST 5 TO 7 MPH WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BLYR MIXED NEGATING ANY FROST OR FREEZE THREAT. CLOUDS HANGING ON AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WOULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURE UP A FEW DEGREES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SETUP. DECIDED TO GO W/ UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID SEPTEMBER W/50S ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND W/A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER W/ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS TUESDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...JAH AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS

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