Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190603 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 203 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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155 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF PRECIP UP BY 3 HRS PER THE LATEST RADAR. THE NAM12 WAS DOING QUITE WELL W/THE TIME ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP CHANCES NEEDED TO RAISED SOME. SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS THE ST. VALLEY INTO NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STATED W/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH ATTM. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA ATTM W/ A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TNGT THEN CROSS THE AREA SAT AM. WILL BE SOME LGT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF (<.10) OR SNOWFALL (<1.0) ATTM. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN RECOVERY INTO THE LOWER 40S N AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 S ON SAT. STILL A FEW HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION ATTM BUT THESE APPEAR MINOR ATTM. THESE ARE ADDRESSED IN FURTHER DETAIL BLO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY ENDING, WINDS DIMINISHING, AND SKIES CLEARING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S DOWNEAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATER TUESDAY LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STEADIER RAIN INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EFFECTS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER LOOKING TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB AND WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO KBGR LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECT VFR TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE TON INTO SAT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR/IFR BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU SAT. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF ICE ON THE ST JOHN FROM ABOUT LILLE TO VAN BUREN. THE LATEST REPORTS THIS EVENING INDICATE NO PROBLEMS ATTM. THE GAUGE ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG STILL REGISTERS IN RECORD TERRITORY ABOVE 16 FT (MAJOR/RECORD FLOOD CAT) BUT CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OCCURRING. IN ANY CASE...HYDRO ISSUES SEEM RATHER LOW-KEYED ATTM BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY MEANS. SPCLY ON THE ST JOHN WHERE PROBS COULD QUICKLY DVLP FROM POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. WILL CONT TO CLOSELY MONITOR. ALSO SOME REPORTS OF WATER IN THE MILFORD/COSTIGAN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE EDDINGTON GAUGE HAS SHOWN A DECISIVE DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING SO ADD`L FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/KHW SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/KHW/FITZSIMMONS HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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