Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241435 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET THROUGH THE AREA CLEANLY. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY COULD BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST FOR TODAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALSO ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE COLD WATERS. && .CLIMATE... A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO LATE IN THE SEASON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB CLIMATE...CB

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