Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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425 FXUS61 KCAR 281427 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1027 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will briefly stall across the area today then continue south to the coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 AM Update: The most sig chg this update was to move the greatest tstm cvrg later during the mid to late aftn to correspond to the tm of max htg...which we believe will be alg an axis msly S of a Caribou to Nrn Somerset county line and NW of the interior Downeast zones, based on where some initial shwr activity is forming across N cntrl ptns of the FA. Kept enhanced tstm element wording to include gusty winds, hail and hvy rnfl with likely PoPs. Other chgs include adjusting fcst 6hrly QPFs closer to the max PoP axis going into the aftn and eve and fcst hrly temps to aftn max temps based on latest sfc obs. Prev Disc: Cold front is on our doorstep with isold showers breaking out ahd of it. Tstorm is located north of the Vermont border and will continue to approach CWA this mrng. Expect as front drops south, that showers and thunderstorms wl dvlp drg htg with airmass destabilizing. Temps acrs the north wl rise into the m/u 70s and Downeast zones in the lwr 80s. This combined with dwpts still in the 60s, wl result in CAPES on the order of 1000 J/kg along the front. Wl retain gusty wind mention along with locally hvy rainfall as pw values appch 1.75 inches drg the aftn, mainly fm a Danforth-Dover line. Front looks to mv as far south as Downeast by midnight tonight bfr stalling. Expect tstms to diminish twd midnight with a few showers lingering along the bndry acrs the south. With srly flow advecting in moisture and dwpts rmng in the 60s expect patchy fog to dvlp cwa- wide once again tonight. Areas of fog can be expected ovr the waters and potential exist for widespread fog to advect on the coast and wl allow later shifts to expand this mention north. Northern zones wl dip into the 50s in the wake of frontal passage with Downeast zones still experiencing 60s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front stalled along the coast early Friday will allow for the chance of showers Downeast as northern areas become partly cloudy. A small low tracking east from southern New England will then track along the southern edge of the Gulf of Maine late Friday into Friday night. As the low approaches, there will likely be a period of steadier stratiform rain over Downeast coastal areas with some showers or patchy rain further inland. Capes are progged to be near 750 J/KG Downeast on Friday. Although the precipitation may be stratiform, some lift from a weak upper level shortwave carrying the low east may be just enough to spawn some embedded convection so will include a slight chance for thunderstorms Downeast too. The low will exit east Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west bringing clearing and slightly cooler and drier air across the region. This will set the stage for a mostly sunny, dry and comfortable day on Saturday as the high pushes in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure across the area will bring a clear and pleasant night Saturday night followed by sunshine again on Sunday. Sunday night will likely remain mostly clear as high pressure stays over the area. Our focus then turns to a weak wave of low pressure tracking off the Mid Atlantic coast. This system may brush the Downeast coast with some rain late Sunday night into Monday. The latest GFS carries most of the moisture from this system south of our region with the ECMWF bringing a better chance for some rain Sunday night into Monday. Shallow shortwave ridging returns with dry weather Tuesday into Wednesday as the low moves away. However, a back door frontal boundary to our northeast may be close enough to bring some thundershowers to northern areas Tuesday and again on Wednesday. However, once the low moves away early next week, Downeast will be mostly sunny and dry into mid week. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR at most terminals next 24 hours. Exception may be BHB this morning with IFR vsbys forecast to develop in the next svrl hours, continuing through 12Z. MVFR restrictions expected in fog after 00z tonight with potential for IFR/LIFR toward end of taf valid time. At BGR may see MVFR vsbys between 03z and 06z Fri in southerly flow along stalled frontal boundary. Further to the north, expect VCTS at any point after 18z this afternoon. Any terminal experiencing -tsra will likely see lower restrictions and variable conditions. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the north on Friday with IFR conditions in low clouds and some rain Downeast. Conditions should improve to VFR across the entire area Friday night then be VFR Saturday into Sunday. VFR conditions are likely Monday, except may lower to MVFR along the downeast coast on Monday as another small low tracks offshore. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA through tonight. Expect areas of fog to develop again after midnight over the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Friday through the weekend. Some fog may limit visibilities on the water early Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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