Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280136 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 936 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 936 PM UPDATE...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADD`L SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOMERSET COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ATTEMPT TO BETTER REFINE THE POPS SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED MOSTLY ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO THE NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING TOO DENSE ATTM. STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE 60S. FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN. FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST, WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25 KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS SWINGS OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY

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