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000
FXUS61 KCAR 160439
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1239 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI CLDNS BEGINS TO INCREASE ERLY SUN MORN AS OVRRNG BEGINS ERLY
OVR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRES BEGINS TO APCH FROM THE
GREAT LKS. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL TMG OF
THICKER CLDS CVR LATER SUN MORN AND RNFL ARRIVAL SUN AFTN...WITH
THE 12Z OPNL GFS BEING MUCH FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL
SUITE. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE TOOK A BLEND OF OPNL MODELS FOR CLDS AND
POPS ON SUN AND LENT MORE CREDENCE ON THE SREF FOR QPF FOR THE
12-18Z AND 18-24Z PDS...WHICH DOES A GOOD JOB SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS RESULTED
IN US ALSO UNDERCUTTING HI TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THIS
PD...WHICH REPRESENTS A MID PT HI TEMP FCST FOR THE MODEL BLEND.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT
TERM AS A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION.  A WEAK LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING WITH SHOWERS.  A STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS
BECOMES UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD TURN STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. WILL ADD
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON PM/EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE DAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE WEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THAT PERIOD. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH BUT KEEPS SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF MAINE. THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION. BRIEF WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR AT TIMES SUN EVENING IN SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
VFR LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MON NIGHT
INTO TUE IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FOR WED THEN IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: AHEAD OF LOW PRES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT THE SLY SWELL MAY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB