Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182027 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PEI THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO EXPIRE. DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWN EAST AREAS TO SLOWLY DRY OUT TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWN EAST AREAS SHOULD BE P/SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE WITH MID 20S DOWN EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE BANGOR AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TO VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...BUT PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE FROM KHUL NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE TRENDING DOWN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1 PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...CB/DUDA MARINE...CB/DUDA CLIMATE...CB

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