Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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814 FXUS61 KCAR 220216 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1016 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the region on Friday. Another secondary cold front with an upper level low will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross the area Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1015 pm update... S/wv conts to mv thru wrn Quebec at this time. 00z raob showed favorable profile fr storms near Montreal with instability still present along with favorable shear. However, latest radar and lightning trends indicate storms are having a tough time holding together tonight. Thus hv lowered pops acrs nrn Maine to just isolated thru 07z tho this may be a little too optimistic and may need to be lowered further. This wl eventually impact svr wx potential for tomorrow. If showers/storms fizzle out bfr they mv into nrn Maine, entire area wl be at risk for strong-svr storms tomorrow along pre-frontal trof depending on sfc htg. 00z NAM is similar to RUC in weakening showers until aft 12Z Fri with CAPE values ranging anywhere btwn 1000-2000 J/kg. 0-6km shear progged to be btwn 25-35kts acrs the north late mrng ahd of pre-frontal trof with 30-40kts in the aftn acrs srn zones. As of now it looks as tho best chc for organized svr wx wl be drg the aftn in Downeast zones. No chgs needed with this update other than to lwr pops by svrl more hrs tonight. Prev discussion blo... Strong thunderstorms possible on Friday. Decaying MCS is forecast to move across the New England region overnight into Friday morning. Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to move into western areas this evening and then move east overnight into Friday morning. Elevated instability is there w/MU CAPE of around 500 joules w/0-6km shear of 35 kts. PWATS increase to 1.3+ inches overnight. Therefore potential for some strong storms is there but the offsetting items are high convective inhibition and a stable llvls. Thinking is the activity will breakup and weaken as it pushes east overnight and decided against any enhanced wording attm. Some storms could contain brief heavy rainfall given the high PWATS. Increasing humidity overnight w/mins staying in the 60s. Attention turns to Friday afternoon as the cold front apchs from the west. Activity in the morning looks like it will stabilize portions of northern and western Maine w/clouds. Plus lapse rates drop off from west to east. Instability appears to set up further east and south mainly from a line of say Mars Hill southwest through Mt. Katahdin on south into the Central Highlands and interior Downeast including the Bangor region. This is not saying that NE Aroostook County(Caribou-Presque Isle) could not see some strong storms. SPC has kept most of the New England region including all of Maine in a Sight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms w/the main threat being strong wind gusts(55+ mph) and hail. Heavy rainfall is also possible. SB/MU CAPES from the NAM and GFS hit values of 1500-2000 joules w/0-6km shear of 30+ kts. Low/mid levels lapse rates are progged to be 6.5+ c/km which is good enough to help w/initiation. Plus, 35-40 kt at 700-500mbs will aid in the forcing. Plus, this region has the best potential to heat up w/temps hitting the 80s. Kept enhanced wording in the forecast. Later shifts can decided on whether to upgrade the wording overnight for the threat. The Hazardous Weather Outlook will be updated this afternoon. Further north, clouds will keep daytime maxes back in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level trough of low pressure will be slowly pushing over the area Friday night as a weak surface trough moves across the region. Thunderstorms early Friday evening may contain some gusty winds or heavy rainfall early. Otherwise, the thunderstorms should taper off Friday night. Lingering showers will likely remain over the region as heights lower. A weak secondary shortwave trough will slide into the area late Friday night into Saturday. The surface trough on Saturday will be just off the coast as winds on the surface become northwest. Showers will be likely, and a few thunderstorms are still possible, mainly resulting from the cooling aloft. Otherwise, Saturday will remain mostly cloudy. The upper level trough will slowly move east of the region on Sunday. Low heights and some cool air aloft may produce a few showers in eastern areas, mainly early Sunday. Otherwise, Sunday will bring partial clearing. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Skies will clear Sunday night as high pressure begins to build into the region. This will be followed by plenty of sunshine and a warm day on Monday. A fast moving shortwave trough will approach Monday night bringing increasing clouds and possibly a thundershower in western areas late at night. Tuesday will then be partly cloudy and warm. Weak surface troughing may spawn a thundershower or two around the area Tuesday. High pressure should then push down from central Canada on Wednesday to bring sunshine and drier conditions. The dry weather will likely last through Thursday as the high builds over. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected next 24 hours. Any terminal that receives strong storms will briefly drop to MVFR/IFR but confidence remains too low to include in forecast at this time. Expect srly winds arnd 10kts, occasionally gusting to nr 20kts in the afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday with locally IFR conditions in any heavier showers or lower stratus clouds. MVFR Conditions may continue Saturday night but should improve to VFR on Sunday as skies partially clear. VFR conditions are likely Monday into Monday evening, possibly lowering to MVFR late Monday night as a new trough of low pressure moves in. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas will gradually come up this evening into Friday hitting 3-5 ft over the outer zones by late in the day. Further inland, seas around 2 ft. There will be a moderate risk for rip currents given the ssw fetch. Winds 10 to 15 kts in Friday w/some gusts to 20 kts ahead of the apchg cold front. SHORT TERM: A few wind gusts may reach 20 kt Friday evening over the offshore waters. Seas up to 5-6 feet over the offshore waters will require an SCA for hazardous seas Friday night. Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Saturday through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/Bloomer

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