Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280525 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ORGNL DISC: THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND SOME CLEARING APPROACHES. SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011- 015>017-029>032. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029- 030. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/MCW MARINE...DUDA/VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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