Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171649 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1149 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the southwest this morning and track across the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. The low will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build toward the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1148 AM Update: Another quick update to lower cld cvr across the far N into mid aftn based on latest sat and sfc obs trends. Orgnl Disc: Overrunning light snow has broken out across southern portions of the area as a coastal front sets up and cyclogenesis occurs off the New Jersey coast. The low will deepen some 10-14 mb over the next 18 hours as it tracks northeastward towards Yarmouth NS this evening. The low is well- supported by a strong upper level jet streak and will be a fast- moving progressive system. It`ll speed away this evening with a relatively weak northern stream upper trough The Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place for today into this evening. The storm track has shifted south along with the entire snow forecast. The heaviest snow is now expected in coastal Washington County. All precipitation is now expected to remain as snow along the coast and outer islands with this more southerly storm track. The heaviest QPF appears to be this afternoon in coastal Washington County as the low tracks towards the west coast of Nova Scotia. During this time, snowfall rates near the Washington County coast could reach an inch an hour. Total snowfall amounts in coastal Washington County could reach just over 7 inches, but since it`s occurring in a period exceeding 12 hours, will not upgrade to a warning. In the coastal zones, had to bump up snow ratios above those suggested by Roebber or Cobb methods towards a 10-12 to one. Further north towards Aroostook County, amounts were reduced with the dry air in place such that areas north of Presque Isle will receive less than an inch. Snow will exit the region this evening and high pressure will build. Blowing snow is not expected to be an issue with light winds and clearing skies after midnight. Lows will drop towards the single digits to low teens in most of the area except the coast where upper teens to lower 20s are forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region Thursday into Friday, with a warm front approaching later Friday into Friday night. Partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected across northern areas Thursday into Friday, with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of light snow or snow showers Friday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Thursday, with partly cloudy skies Friday. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Thursday/Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front will cross the region early Saturday, with a cold front crossing late. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of light snow or snow showers across northern areas Saturday. Across Downeast areas, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies early with partly cloudy skies late. Low pressure will track toward the Great Lakes Sunday, with a developing warm front to the east of the low. Partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected across the forecast area Sunday. The low will lift across the Great Lakes Monday while high pressure exits across the maritimes. Expect increasing precipitation chances Monday, though how rapidly precipitation is able to advance with retreating high pressure is still uncertain. Generally expect precipitation in the form of snow Monday, though mixed precipitation could develop Downeast dependent on how rapidly warmer air is drawn north. Uncertainty then develops Tuesday regarding the track/timing of the Great Lakes low and whether a secondary low develops across the region. Precipitation types/amounts Tuesday will be dependent on the eventual track of the low and whether a secondary low develops which could limit the northern extent of warmer air. Generally expect above normal level temperatures Saturday through Tuesday. However, temperatures Monday into Tuesday will be dependent on the eventual track/timing of low pressure and whether a secondary low develops. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: A wide variety of conditions will occur over the area today. For starters, BHB and BGR will have steady snow all day and into the early evening with IFR vis. IFR cigs may also occur at BHB. Heavier snow will occur this afternoon towards Machias and Eastport with 1/2 mile vis possible. Snow will move northward and affect HUL and PQI this afternoon into the evening with IFR vis. Brief periods of snow and IFR vis may affect CAR and FVE this evening, but MVFR cigs appear to be the predominant condition. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the north and mountains Thursday into Sunday, with occasional IFR conditions also possible Saturday. Generally VFR conditions are expected Downeast Thursday into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 1122am update...we lowered the SCA attm, with no wind gusts much past 20 kt and seas at or below 5 ft. Orgnl Disc...The SCA looks marginal by winter standards with some 25 kt gusts entering the waters this afternoon into the early evening. Will maintain the headline as is. Otherwise, the most significant weather will be steady snow closer to the coast with reductions in visibility. Rain is expected to mix with the snow further offshore. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Thursday into Thursday night. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Friday into early Friday night. Small craft advisory conditions will then develop again later Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ011-015-016-031-032. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ017- 029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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