Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050803 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 403 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME, ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS). SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK TODAY. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT

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