Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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257 FXUS61 KCAR 271950 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 350 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas on Thursday. The front will slowly slide south Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Still looking for some tstms later this afternoon into early tonight w/the pre-frontal trof. Another round of activity expected on Thursday w/the arrival of the cold front. 18z analysis showed the best potential for convective activity back across the w and nw into the evening hrs where the best dewpoints pooling will reside(65-70) and MU CAPES AROUND 1200-1500 joules. Plus the best convergence resides in this area as well. There is aloft of convection back across QUEBEC per the latest obs and lightning detection. As stated earlier, offsetting organized convection are the meager Lapse rates above 850 mbs and a large area of dry above 800mbs. The 12z ua supported this as well. GFS was highly overdone w/its moisture and precip coverage. The NAM12 looked more reasonable in line w/the Hi Res WRF. Kept the highest pops(40%) across the northern and western border into the evening. This area has best shot for seeing any organized strong storms. Further e and s, decided to cut the pops back to 20%. Activity looks to get going much later and kept the mention of tstms across the northern tier into the overnight period w/the apch of the cold front. Will leave in the enhanced wording attm for the gusty winds and hail but again this has been scaled back to the wnw areas. Overnight temps will reside in the 60s except for the far w and nw areas as they will drop back into the 50s w/the frontal passage. Kept the mention of patchy fog as well. For Thursday, the cold front is forecast to slowly slide s and then stall across the downeast region Thursday afternoon. Activity is forecast to set up again later in the morning right into the afternoon, first across northern 1/2 of the CWA and then down across the Central Highlands and Downeast region. Atmosphere appears to be a bit more favorable especially for the central and downeast areas. Instability increases dramatically w/CAPE values hitting 2000+ joules and 0-6km shear around 20+ kts. Strong convergence along the front will allow for organized cells w/some becoming strong or even severe. 0-3km lapse rates are forecast to be 7.5 c/km w/mid level lapse rates hitting 6.5 c/km which is favorable for possible severe is cells can get going. Will go ahead and add enhanced wording for heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. In the stronger cells, redevelopment of storms could lead to a flash flood potential w/heavy rainfall rates. Again, the best potential attm looks to be across the central and downeast areas from Millinocket and Greenville into the Bangor- Calais region. Afternoon temps will warm well into the 80s in these areas w/dewpoints in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front is expected to stall across the outer Gulf of Maine Friday Night. Low pressure is then expected to move northeast along the front. Showers are expected in coastal areas from this system. High pressure is then expected to build in from the west Saturday with dry conditions. Dry weather is also expected Sunday as the high pressure system moves across New England.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will move off-shore late Sunday. A cold front is expected to approach from the north Monday with some showers possible in northern areas Monday and Tuesday while the south will remain dry. Another cold front will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday with more showers possible later Wednesday and Thursday as the front moves through.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR tonight w/some mvfr vsbys for patchy fog by early Thursday morning. Could be seeing some MVFR by Thursday afternoon w/showers and tstms. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday at KBGR and KBHB while VFR conditions are expected in the north. VFR conditions are expected all areas Sunday through Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No headlines are expected this forecast as the cold front stalls n of the waters. Winds for the most part will average around 10 kts w/seas around 2 ft. Tstms are expected Thursday afternoon into the evening. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds through Saturday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to initialize grids through Saturday then transition to the Wave Watch III. WWIII continues to show a high bias with boundary conditions feeding into the near shore so have lowered wave heights by 1 foot through the period. Expect primary wave system Friday into Saturday to be wind wave from low pressure passing to the east. For the remainder of the period expect longer period incoming swell to dominate as wind speeds remain below 10 knots.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/Mignone

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