Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280347 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1147 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MIDNIGHT UPDATE...MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO CLOUD COVER WITH CENTRAL AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOME STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. LOWERED DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NEWFOUNDLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUES MRNG...THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS MAINE. HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. BY MIDDAY...THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MAINE. THE GFS BRINGS THE WARM FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM. OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF THE PARENT LOW...JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE TO AROUND HOULTON. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MAINE TO NEAR HOULTON...BUT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. THE GFS BRINGS THE WARM FRONT INTO THE NRN TIP OF MAINE NEAR ESCOURT STATION. AT THIS TIME ALL 4 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE LOW...THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING IT SW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE...THEN SW THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN LA. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY IN PARTICULAR. WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RISING DEW POINTS ADVECTING NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWN EAST AREA BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MORNING CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN ZONES. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH LIGHT WINDS...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY. THE BIG CONCERN ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AND TEND TO FAVOR THE GEFS AND ECMWF WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MAINE ON SATURDAY AND SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE...OR FURTHER SOUTH. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL AFFECT MAINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY LATER SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE SNOW IS A THREAT AS SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO ALL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT A CUT-OFF LOW TO DEVELOP AND SPIN IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: 1000 PM UPDATE: ADDED IN A PERIOD OF MVFR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS BACKED IN. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT AROUND 06Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MVFR CONDITIONS FVE...AROUND 3K FT FOR CAR AND PQI EARLY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...BECMG SCT TO CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN EARLY TOMORROW MRNG...THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE MRNG...LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTRN. SKYCON SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BGR...BHB...AND HUL. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO DRIZZLE AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR FOR ALL SITES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR PERSISTS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NORTH OF HUL THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TEMPO IFR WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY WINDS THROUGH 3AM...DUE TO THE NW WINDS SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW 5 FT. ONCE THE WINDS SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY. SHORT TERM: A MARGINAL SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A GALE IS PROBABLE SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COASTAL LOW. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/MCB SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/MCW MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/MCW

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