Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 282013
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
413 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening. An upper
level disturbance will move across Maine Wednesday afternoon and
evening. High pressure builds into the area Thursday into
Thursday night. Low pressure is expected to pass south of the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 trof across Quebec will move southeast toward northern Maine
tonight and then across the region during Wednesday. Short wave
energy ejecting around the upper trof will cross the region
this evening while a southern branch short wave passes to south
of the Gulf of Maine later tonight. Some light precipitation
associated with the northern short wave will cross the region
into early this evening, while another band of light
precipitation skirts the downeast coast a little later tonight.
Precipitation across the north will be in the form of some
light rain/snow showers this evening, possibly mixed with a bit
of sleet, before ending in the form of snow later tonight.
There could be an inch or so of accumulation, especially across
the St John Valley. Across downeast, expect mainly rain
showers. Skies will remain cloudy overnight with soundings
showing plenty of moisture below H7. The abundant cloud cover
will once again keep temperatures from falling too much from
current afternoon readings with upper 20s north and lower 30s
H5 trof crosses the region Wednesday. Soundings still showing
quite a bit of moisture between H8 and H9 level so will still be
looking at quite a bit of cloud cover across the area but
certainly may see a few sunny breaks from time to time. Still
couldn`t rule out a brief rain/snow shower as the upper trof
crosses the region. Temperatures on Wednesday should be a good 5
to 10 degrees warmer than today.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sct sn shwrs msly ovr Nrn ptns of the region will gradually
diminish Wed ngt into Thu as the upper trof slowly moves E of
the region. Winds will be fairly brisk out of the NNW durg these
pds. The airmass behind this system is msly non-arctic, so
temps...spcly hi temps should recover closer to climo values,
spcly by Fri, when msly sunny skies and lgtr winds are xpctd.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Longer range models tdy are in better agreement in showing some
impact with ovrngt and mrng snfl for msly Cntrl and spcly
Downeast ptns of the region later Fri ngt into Sat and only a
grazing impact to Nrn ptns of the region as low pres from the
Mid Atlc states moves E to well S of Nova Scotia. Max PoPs were
constructed in this manner wil likely PoPs ovr SW ptns of the
region to mid chc PoPs ovr the far N and NE. A little to erly to
speculate about sn amts with this system attm, but a consensus
total QPF with this event would not likely exceed wntr wx adv
thresholds ovr Downeast areas, and that`s if the event were all
sn with decent liq to sn ratios. Steady sn/rn will taper to sct
rn/sn shwrs Sat aftn and eve, contg as isold to sct ngt/erly
morn sn shwrs and late morn to aftn rn/sn shwrs on Sun as an
upper trof crosses the region. Mon and Tue attm looks to be fair
with near seasonal temps.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Poor flight conditions will prevail at the terminals
tonight with ceilings expected to be below 010. Also expect a
little snow shower activity to affect mainly the northern
terminals through early this evening. IFR conditions due to low
ceilings will prevail early Wednesday fallowed by improving
conditions to MVFR by afternoon.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs for Nrn TAF sites and VFR for
Downeast sites xpctd Wed ngt thru Thu morn, then VFR all sites
Thu aftn thru Fri eve. The next chc of MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys for
our TAF sites will be late Fri ngt into Sat with sn/mixed
precip. Conditions should then improve to VFR ovrngt Sat and
then cont so on Sun.
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below sca levels through
SHORT TO LONG TERM: The next sig chc of SCA conditions will be
Wed ngt and Thu with llvl cold advcn NNW wind pattern. Aftwrds...
winds an seas will be at marginal or below SCA thresholds with
the greatest uncertainty Fri ngt into Sat depending on the track
and intensity of sfc low pres tracking E from the Mid Atlc
states into the open N Atlc well S of Nova Scotia. Kept close
to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.