Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 071045 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 545 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure north of the great lakes region will move northeast through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday and cross the region Thursday night and Friday. A much colder air mass will follow for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Latest radar reflectivity data and surface obs shows light snow starting make its way into southern Maine. Expect light snow to continue to expand into portions of northern and downeast Maine after sunrise. Have added patchy freezing fog to northern areas through early this morning, otherwise adjusted database per latest radar trends and observations. previous discussion Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure north of the great lakes region and another low east of the mid atlantic coast. The mid atlantic low will continue to move east and out to sea while the low north of the great lakes region moves slowly northeast across James Bay. Some weak energy rotating around this low will cross the forecast area today. This will result in cloudy skies today along with the chance of a little light snow at times. It maybe warm enough for a mix of rain or snow along the downeast coast this afternoon. Any snow accumulation with this system will be generally be less than an inch, except there may be some locally higher amounts across the higher terrain. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 20s to near 30 degrees north and central areas, with low to mid 30s downeast. A few snow showers may linger into early this evening, otherwise expect a mainly cloudy night tonight in advance of an upper trof approaching from the west. It will be a milder night as the expected cloud cover precludes temperatures from falling all that much overnight. Expect lows tonight to generally range from the mid 20s across northern and central areas, with mid 20s to near 30 downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thu will be the mildest day in this pd, with sn shwrs xpctd ahead of a cold front to cross the region Thu ngt. A secondary, arctic cold front will cross the region on Fri, withe additional sn shwrs and the possibility of sn sqls. Fri`s hi temps will be colder with brisk winds with colder ovrngt lows Fri ngt and hi temps Sat as St Lawrence seaway streamer sn bands cont ovr spcly the nrn hlf of the FA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sn shwrs across the N should end Sat eve with clrg skies xpctd late Sat ngt. Although winds will diminish late Sat ngt, only NW vlys may see lmtd radiational cooling/sfc based arctic invsn potential with NW gradient winds holding on. Fair skies Sun morn will give way to increasing hi/mid cldnss by mid to late aftn as low pres from the great lks begins to apch. Snfl from this system will ovrsprd the region from the w later Sun ngt and cont thru most of Mon. The 00z dtmnstc GFS in particular brings the track of a secondary sfc low close enough to the coast to potentially bring a chg ovr to rn for Downeast areas by Mon aftn. Overall from this far out, this looks to be at least a sn adv event ovr the region, even ovr Downeast areas prior to any potential chgovr with a belt of marginal wntr stm wrng snfl ovr Cntrl ptns of the FA. Across the Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA, colder sfc temps with this event should mean a more powdery sn event, which would be good news for area trees still laden with sn from recent prior events due to a relative lack of wind. the hope is that some of this snow will be blown off the trees from brisk winds Fri and Sat before any SN Sun ngt thru Mon. Seasonably cold with unsettled sn shwr conditions follow behind the low for Mon ngt and Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected across the northern terminals through early this morning in low clouds, with MVFR conditions elsewhere. Expect generally MVFR conditions in periods of light snow today and then in ceilings tonight. SHORT TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs Nrn TAF sites and VFR Downeast sites with vsbys briefly IFR Nrn TAF sites and MVFR Downeast sites in any sn shwrs thru Sat. Otherwise, all sites become VFR Sat ngt and cont so thru Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Aft an initial pd of no hdln conditions, a lengthy pd of at least SCA winds and seas looks very likely with strong llvl cold advcn, with brief gale force wind gusts possible Thu ngt thru Sat. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru this ptn of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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