Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281951 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY

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