Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260409 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region overnight through Monday, then move east Monday night. An occluded front will slowly cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure in Labrador will build Wednesday into Thursday with a moist easterly flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... High pressure will continue to build toward the area overnight. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall overnight with frost expected by sunrise in most areas away from the immediate coast. No significant changes as going forecast has this all covered nicely. Previous Discussion... Frost remains the primary concern for this period. Will leave the existing advisories in place. All zones are vulnerable except along the coast. A hard freeze is probable towards northwest Aroostook where lows in the 20s are expected. This is where winds are most likely to become calm later tonight as the high builds. Further east towards the eastern border of Maine, boundary layer north winds will continue much of the night and prevent decoupling/deep inversions except in the usual valleys and sheltered areas. No additional frost or freeze warnings will be issued for Aroostook County...northern Piscataquis and northern Somerset counties based on reasons outlined in the NWS Caribou Public Information Statement issued yesterday evening. Monday looks like an excellent day with clear skies, highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and low humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The GFS has sped up compared to the past few days and is now having precip push into the CWA at the same time as the ECMWF, if not actually a bit earlier. One thing that models started picking up on yesterday and are showing a bit more today is potential cyclogenesis near the triple point of the occlusion over s`rn New Eng Tue AM. The Low would then track along the coast or over the Gulf of Maine. At this point, that Low doesn`t seem to be overly strong, but even a weak coastal Low would act to siphon rain away from the interior. As such, didn`t touch POPs too much, but did draw down QPF for the interior zones while boosting it a bit at the coast, and our QPF is in good collaboration with GYX. The main precip area will likely move out Tue eve, but there remains uncertainty on the pattern for Tue night into Wed. The GFS shows the front pushing further offshore before stalling, leading to mostly dry conditions over the CWA for Wed. However, other guidance points to the front possibly stalling closer to the CWA, with occasional rain chances continuing, especially for Downeast and the eastern zones. As such, maintained Chc POPs for Tue night into Wed, and these may need to be boosted going forward, depending on the forecast position of the front. It looks like a cool, wet day Tue, with highs a bit below normal. A return toward normal highs on Wed is possible, pending the precip/cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Our focus going into the latter part of the week will be on a trough of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region and surface low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Moisture from this low may remain south of here, possibly pushing toward the coast Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is then expected to build across our north Friday into Saturday possibly keeping northern areas dry while the moisture form the Mid-Atlantic system brushes the coast with some clouds and showers. Moisture may remain nearby to our south on Sunday as high pressure continues to ridge across the north. The low expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic is a recent development in our latest forecast guidance and therefore confidence is low on how it will evolve and affect our region. The intensity of the low and the strength of the high to our north will ultimately determine how far north moisture may progress next weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Monday. SHORT TERM: A mid-level cloud deck is forecast to move into the CWA from west to east between 06z and 12z Tue, with MVFR/IFR CIGs and lower vsbys expected thereafter as the rain shield moves across the area. Forecast gets more complicated for Wed onward, as it will be dependent on how far east of the area a front stalls. At the very least, MVFR CIGs are quite psbl on Wed, with ocnl lower vsby in any areas of rain. For Thu and Fri, variable flying conditions appear likely, with the greatest risk of reduced CIGs and vsbys for KBGR and KBHB. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Monday. SHORT TERM: Did adjust seas downward a bit for the most part. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels this period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ005-010-011- 015>017-031-032. MARINE...None.
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