Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 281632
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1232 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
High pressure will move to the east today. A low in Quebec will
drag a warm front across the area tonight, followed by a cold
front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --1230 PM update...No significant changes were needed with this
update. Starting to see some heftier showers moving into the North
Woods from Quebec at this hour, which the current forecast has
covered. Made some slight adjustments to sky cover and temps to
match current obs and expected trends. Otherwise the forecast is
in good shape.
Previous discussion...High pressure is slowly shifting east away
from Maine this morning, while low pressure is moving into western
Quebec. We`re seeing some light returns on radar across northern
areas this morning with weak warm advection occurring on the
backside of the ridge. A lot of this is probably not yet reaching
the ground, but can`t rule out a few showers through the morning
hours, mainly over the North Woods and Saint John Valley. However,
much of the day will be dry for a good part of our forecast area.
The better chance for rain arrives late this afternoon into the
evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Highs today will
be in the lower to mid 70s, a little cooler than yesterday owing
to the cloud cover.
A cold front is then expected to approach from the west tonight
behind low pressure passing to the north of the state. The cold
front will move to the east of the region Monday Morning. Showers
and some thunderstorms are expected tonight as the front moves
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front is fcst to slide ese off the coast w/the upper trof
set to move through during the afternoon. First set of showers
will move to the e during the morning but more showers are
expected in the afternoon as the trof swings through the region.
Stayed w/the daycrew`s thinking of keeping 40-50% pops into mid
afternoon and then gradually wind things down as the trof swings
to the e. Decided to leave out the mention of thunder attm as
instability pushes to the e by morning and the mid and upper
levels starting drying out by afternoon when peak heating hits.The
NAM and GFS do show CAPE of 500-1000 joules across northeast and
eastern areas but as just mentioned, the mid/upper levels dry
out. Plus mid level lapse rates drop back below 6.0 c/km.
Clearing Monday night and cooling down. NW wind will drop off and
this will allow for some patchy fog to set up especially for areas
that received some rainfall. The NAM and GFS soundings do hint at
some patchy fog to develop later Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Overnight temps are fcst to drop into the 50s. Tuesday
looks to be a pleasant day w/temperatures hitting above normal
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled into the late week w/much cooler temperatures expected.
Another frontal system is expected slide into the region Tuesday
night and then move to the east on Wednesday. Look for showers
to set up overnight across the west and northwest and then push
their way eastward on Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS point to CAPE
to be on the order of 500-1000 joules w/lis down to -3 across the
downeast region, mainly from Calais to Bangor as temperatures are
expected to hit the upper 70s to around 80F. Mid level lapse
rates are meager at best(5.5c/km). Any storms that can get going
will rely on the blyr and llvl lapse rates and best timing will be
in the 1-4 pm timeframe. Confidence is low attm and therefore,
decided to leave out the mention of tstms. Still some time to
assess this further w/the later model runs.
Things look to remain unsettled right into late week and turning
much cooler as a broad upper trof sets in across northern New
England. This will mean showers both Thursday into Friday
w/daytime temps in the 60s and low 70s Thursday and low to mid 60s
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today then MVFR/IFR Conditions
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR early Monday for the northern terminals
improving to VFR by later in the day. VFR for KBGR and KBHB.
Patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday morning could lead to brief
MVFR especially for the northern terminals. Otherwise, VFR for all
terminals into Tuesday night. Possible MVFR for Wednesday, mainly
north of KBGR and KBHB as a cold front slides across the region.
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds. For waves:
Current observations from 44027 indicate long period southerly
swell (1 foot/9 seconds) is the dominate wave system with surface
winds currently under 5 knots. Later today southerly swell will
give way to more southeasterly swell 1-2 feet/14-15 seconds)
originating from Hurricane Gaston. Wind wave from increasing
southerly winds will also build to around 2 feet/5 seconds
SHORT TERM: No headlines anticipated. A sse swell is fcst to set
up and build to 4 to 5 ft Monday night right into Wednesday. Winds
will increase w/the cold fropa early Monday w/sustained speeds of
10-15 kt. Gusts could hit 20 kts over the outer zones for a brief
time. Winds will drop off Monday night into Tuesday as weak high
pres slides over the waters. Another front is fcst to move into
the waters on Wednesday w/nw winds picking up again to 10-15 kt.