Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 151643
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1143 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure will build back in across the region through
tonight. Low pressure will move in from the west Tuesday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front crossing the forecast area this morning. With little
in the way of moisture with the front expect mainly sunny skies
today. Temperatures will remain fairly steady or even fall a few
degrees this afternoon as 925 mb temperatures will be falling
today. Made only minor adjustments to temps/dew points today. Also
added isolated snow showers for portions of southeast Aroostook
per latest radar showing a few light returns.
High pressure will build in from the west today and crest over
the region tonight. The high will then move to the east. Expect
mostly sunny conditions today but clouds are expected to increase
tonight behind the departing high pressure system.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fast-mvg system wl traverse Quebec on Mon. As wk front appchs the
state expect a few snow showers acrs the north drg the aftn but
little to write home about. Swrly flow wl allow temps to warm to nr
normal drg the day with highs in the l20s acrs the Crown and l30s
Hipres wl be building into CWA Mon night with ridge axis bisecting
area on Tue. Cannot rule out some patchy flurries in the higher
terrain along the international brdr early Mon night in cyclonic
flow but wl not include in grids attm. H5 s/wv ridge wl be appchgfm
the west Tue aftn and wl lkly determine progress of next appchg
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high expected to be holding tight acrs ern Canada Wed mrng bfr
vry slowly building into the Maritimes. Latest med range guidance
suggests upr lvl ridge wl build acrs nrn New England and may eject
low into the Atlantic to the south of our area. 00z GFS is much
more amplified with upr-lvl feature than EC is with trof hanging
on thru the end of the week. 00z Euro ejects it well south and
east of the Gulf of Maine by 12z Thur with just a weak secondary
trof mvg thru bfr upr ridging builds in thru the end of the week.
Current guidance on upcoming system suggest rain/snow mix along
the coast Wed morning, mvg north into the afternoon with snow
mainly to the north of Bangor. Hwvr, hipres and drier air may
prevent much in the way of pcpn acrs the north on Wed thus hv
gone with just chc pops with lkly acrs the south. May see isold
snow showers Thur into Fri with wk upr trof crossing the area tho
GFS suggests a low in the Gulf of Maine 12z Thur while EC is
approx 400 miles to the southeast with sfc low.
Still many details to work out in regard to how much of an impact
the next system wl hv on CWA by mid-week. One thing looks to be a
little more clear-cut. Temps wl lkly be abv normal into the next
weekend with deep trof acrs the west and building heights in the
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR Conditions are expected through tonight.
SHORT TERM: VFR through Tue though CAR/FVE may see MVFR or IFR in
isold -shsn on Monday. Low MVFR/IFR possible late Tue night into
Wed with -SNRA BHB and BGR and -SN to the north. Improvement to
MVFR on Thur, and possibly VFR.
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained wind speed today and
tonight. For Waves: Off-shore wind wave is expected to be the
primary wave system today into tonight with wave heights a
function of fetch distance from the coast. Incoming long period
swell is expected to remain below 1 foot through tonight. Have
used the Near Shore Wave Model for wave heights.
SHORT TERM: Winds will increase to SCA levels on Monday before
diminishing late Tue night. Expect SCA conditions again on Wed,
however levels will be dependent on track of low and how close it
approaches the Gulf of Maine which is still very uncertain at this
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-