Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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505 FXUS61 KCAR 191622 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1122 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through this evening. A warm front will approach late tonight. Low pressure will track north of the region Saturday. High pressure will build across the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1125 AM Update: A quick update to add sct flurries with some lctns across our area now reporting flurries. Otherwise, no sig chgs for this aftn this update. Orgnl Disc: The area remains in a col today between ridges in Quebec and the southeastern US. A weakening cold frontal boundary will sag southward this morning across the area and bring isolated snow showers in the southern half of the forecast area. A rather compact upper trough will aid in the development of these showers. No accumulation is expected. The upper trough will quickly move east of the area by this afternoon and the frontal boundary will start returning northward as a warm front tonight. This will result in some clearing this afternoon in the southern half of the forecast area while northern zones remain mostly cloudy. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than readings recorded on Thursday and lows tonight will likely be recorded in the evening. Temperatures will remain steady or even rise through the rest of the night. A fast-moving low will speed out of Ontario into Quebec tonight accompanied by shortwave trough. This shortwave impulse will energize the warm frontal boundary late tonight with snow developing in northern zones. Up to 2-3 inches could fall in the Saint John Valley with amounts quickly tapering to less than an inch south of northern Aroostook County. The energy with shortwave is sufficient to generate high confidence in the snowfall forecast. With a warm layer aloft, trace amounts of sleet and freezing rain could fall towards daybreak Saturday around Bangor and the Down East region...possibly as far north as Lincoln and Millinocket. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track north of Maine Saturday. Light snow is expected across northern portions of the forecast area early Saturday with up to around an inch of additional accumulation possible. Could also have the chance of a light wintry mix across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area early Saturday. Could still have a chance of snow showers across northern areas Saturday afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front, with decreasing clouds Downeast. The cold front will cross the region Saturday night through early Sunday with a chance of snow showers across mostly the north and mountains. Otherwise, generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Saturday night with partly/mostly cloudy skies Sunday. High pressure then builds across the region Sunday night with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Saturday/Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure exits across the maritimes Monday while low pressure crossing the Great Lakes draws a cold/occluded front toward New England. Cloud cover will increase Monday, with increasing snow chances Monday night. However, uncertainty still exists regarding how rapidly precipitation is able to expand against retreating high pressure. The primary Great Lakes low will track northwest of the region Tuesday drawing the cold/occluded front across the region. Uncertainty also exists regarding the timing of the cold/occluded front Tuesday into Tuesday night along with whether a secondary low develops along the front. Expect snow across the region early Tuesday. Warmer air being drawn north could then allow the snow to begin transitioning to a wintry mix across Downeast areas later Tuesday. The transition from snow to a wintry mix should expand northward Tuesday night, with a transition to rain possible along the Downeast coast. However, how rapidly the transition to a wintry mix occurs and the northern extent of the transition remain uncertain. If a secondary low were to develop along the front and limit the northern extent of warm air, precipitation across northern areas could remain mostly snow. Exact precipitation types/amounts Tuesday remain uncertain at this time. The initial cold/occluded front will exit across the maritimes early Wednesday, with a secondary cold front crossing the region later Wednesday. Expect a chance of snow north, with a chance of a wintry mix Downeast, early Wednesday with precipitation then tapering to snow showers. High pressure will build toward the region later Thursday. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Thursday, with partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Monday and Thursday. Temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday will be dependent on the eventual timing of the cold/occluded front and whether a secondary low develops. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: BHB and BGR will be mostly VFR through the period. MVFR cigs will affect sites north of HUL at times through tonight. IFR vis in snow is expected north of PQI after midnight into early Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern areas early Saturday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Saturday night into Sunday, with generally VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing Monday night. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA has been issued starting after midnight as a warm front crosses the waters. There is a good pressure gradient and some mixing in the low levels, so confidence is pretty high. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Saturday into Saturday night. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Sunday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.