Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270405 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1205 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1205 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE CWA INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT WILL END OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. NOTED THAT THE HRRR APPEARS TOO VIGOROUS IN ATTEMPTING TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT. ORGNL DISC: SFC BNDRY HAS SLOWLY CREEPED INTO EXTRM WRN PART OF CWA WITH NW WIND AT GREENVILLE AND SE WIND AT MILLINOCKET. THIS BNDRY IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM NWRD ON 30KT H8 LLJ. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE WL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO THE EVNG HRS. BIGGEST CONCERN CONTS TO CENTER ARND WASHINGTON CNTY. THIS AREA WAS HIT HARD THIS MRNG WITH HVY RAIN AND FLOODING AS A RESULT OF LFQ OF H2 JET. MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER JET DVLPNG LATE TONIGHT. THIS JET IS BEING PICKED UP ON WV IMAGERY AT THIS TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AS THIS JET INTENSIFIES IT WL LKLY INDUCE SFC LOW DVLPMNT IN THE GULF OF MAINE. UPR LVL SUPPORT FM JET MAX COUPLED WITH LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WITH SFC LOW AND PW VALUES OF 1.50+ INCHES WL LKLY LEAD TO HVY RAINFALL AGAIN OVRNGT. WL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE THE CALL ON A POSSIBLE WATCH. SFC LOPRES WL RESULT IN SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT AND NOT CLR CWA UNTIL 12Z THUR. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL WANE ACRS MOST OF CWA AFT 00Z BUT WL CONTINUE THRU ABOUT 06Z OVR WASHINGTON CNTY. THUS HV MAINTAINED ISOLD THUNDER THRU THIS TIME. DRY DWPTS WL FILTER INTO THE NW IN WAKE OF FROPA AS DWPTS ACRS CANADA HV DROPPED INTO THE M50S. THUS, EXPECT THAT MINS OVRNGT IN THE NORTH WOOD CUD DROP INTO THE M/U 50S WITH LOCALES ALONG THE COAST IN THE L60S. DRG THE DAY THURSDAY EXPECT UPR LVL TROF TO SWING THRU THE STATE. THIS WL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WL MV THRU DRG THE AFTN AT TIME OF MAX DIURNAL HTG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SATURDAY SHOULD THEN BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING IN. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER AS A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO MID WEEK DOWNEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAJORITY OF TAF VALID TIME IN MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST MARINE ZONE. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER

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