Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230443 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1243 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:30 AM UPDATE...UPPER RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG ATTM PER THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR W/RAIN BEING HELD AT BAY ACROSS THE NORTH. RAINFALL IS SPLIT PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ONE AREA CONFINED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET AREA AND OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE AS WELL AS OFFSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED W/THE ENHANCED CLOUDS PER THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR & CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING WELL W/THE LATEST SETUP. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE QPF FROM 00-06Z AND ADJUST THE POPS STAYING W/20-40% ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND LEANED W/80+% POPS FOR THE HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET REGION AND ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 09Z AND STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY FILL IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT SITUATION SHOWING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST. A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY`S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY`S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES... WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY`S GUIDANCE ATTM. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND ALL OF THE THE NERFC`S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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