Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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772 FXUS61 KCAR 251917 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 317 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An occluded front crosses the area tonight with showers. High pressure builds in for late Tuesday. A cold front just north of the area Wednesday crosses the area Wednesday night and Thursday with unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tonight as an occluded front crosses the area. Showers will increase from west to east through the evening, then taper off from west to east later in the night. Instability aloft actually increases through the evening and could see a few embedded storms, but nothing strong. Precipitable water values skyrocket to 1.5 to 2 inches through the evening, and with slow movement of cells, flooding is a little concern later in the evening and overnight. Some high res ensemble members generate very localized 2 to 3 inches of rain, which could fall in a few hours. Not too concerned about flash flooding, but a few spots may see enough to warrant some sort of advisory. Really anywhere in the area could see the heavier downpours, with a slightly greater chance Downeast. Most areas will see somewhere roughly 1/2 inch or a little less of rain, although a few spots, as mentioned before, will get a fair amount more. Fog is another concern tonight, mainly Downeast, where some visibilities to 1/2 mile and possibly lower are expected. The rain tapers off some later tonight, although a shortwave trough moving through in the morning hours with help keep some shower activity going Tuesday, especially over the north. Kept likely precip chances up north for Tuesday. Shortwave trough axis passes through by early afternoon, but daytime heating should compensate for this and keep the activity going into the afternoon. Don`t expect anything severe for Tuesday, although a few cells could have small hail. Another warm day Tuesday with highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure will move away from New England Tuesday Night. A cold front will approach from he northwest during the day Wednesday. This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms during the day Wednesday, mainly across the north. Another cold front will move across the region Thursday as upper level low pressure passes to the the north resulting more showers.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers are expected to come to an end Thursday Night. Low pressure will pass to the south of the area Saturday, too far to the south to produce any precipitation. High pressure is then expected to build in across the region during the day Saturday. Showers are possible again during the day Sunday into Monday as another system approaches from the west.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR developing tonight with showers and low clouds/fog. Lowest IFR conditions toward the coast, but at least a period of IFR expected throughout. Improving to MVFR through the day Tuesday, although Northern Maine may not improve to VFR until early afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft through Tuesday. However, fog will be an issue tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds. For waves: With wind speeds across the waters expected to be below 10 knots through most of this forecast period expected wave systems to primarily result from incoming low period southeasterly swell running around 2 feet/6-7 seconds..
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Foisy/Mignone Marine...Foisy/Mignone

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