Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170418 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1218 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall out across northern Maine tonight and will lift back to the north as a warm front on Monday. A cold front will approach the region late in the day Wednesday and will slowly move across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1215 AM Update: Evening convection is quickly dissipating and the focus for the rest of the night will be fog and stratus advecting north from the coast and patchy fog further inland. An initial look at 00Z guidance continues to advertise afternoon thunderstorms further inland and dry towards the coast. Orgnl Disc: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early evening hours, but overall intensity and coverage will continue to decrease as daytime heating is lost. Some stronger storms with gusty winds, small hail, and briefly heavy rainfall will be possible through evening, but this too will decrease in probability. Once the rain dissipates, by midnight or so, expect another muggy night with fog developing, especially Downeast and along the coast. Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 50s across the North Woods and along the coast. We see Round 2 tomorrow. Much like this morning, fog will burn off during the early morning hours tomorrow, allowing for some sunshine before the next shot of rain arrives in the afternoon. This will be associated with an upper shortwave which looks to stay a little further west than what we saw today. CAPEs are progged to reach 1500 J/kg tomorrow, but shear will once again be weak. As such, expect we`ll see pulse-type storms that will be capable of producing gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Freezing levels will be a bit higher tomorrow than they were today, but can`t rule out some small hail in any stronger storms. Areas along and north of a Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line have the best chances to see any strong storms. Otherwise, it`ll be another humid day as dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s. Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s, with a few inland locations topping 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mild and muggy Mon night ahead of an upper trough as the area remains in the warm sector. Weak onshore flow will likely lead to some areas of fog along and near the coast, and patchy fog is possible inland in the humid air mass. A passing shower is also possible, but most of the night will be dry. The upper trough pushes east Tue and crosses the region Tue night. The chance of showers will be on the increase Tue with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, especially across the western zones. The weather remains unsettled Tue night and Wed as a cold front approaches northwest Maine by Wed evening. Tue night will be partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog again possible along the coast with a passing shower possible. Scattered showers are expected Wed with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm as the cold front gets closer to the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Continued unsettled Wed night and Thu as a cold front very slowly works across the region with more showers and thunderstorms. An upper trough and secondary front come through Fri with another chance of showers. Right now, next weekend is looking mainly dry although a weak disturbance could generate an afternoon or early evening shower in a few spots Sat. Temperatures will be above average Thu and near average for Fri through the weekend. Humidity levels will drop a bit in the wake of the cold front late in the week. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Main concern for this period will be scattered showers and thunderstorms through 00z Mon, and again 16z-23z Monday. MVFR conditions will prevail during these periods, though IFR will be possible in any rain. Otherwise, the focus is fog that will once again develop tonight. Expect all sites will be LIFR from 08z-12z, with BGR and BHB seeing LIFR conditions a few hours beyond this time frame. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be highly variable Mon night through Fri. LIFR possible at times along and near the coast Mon night and again Tue night in fog. Inland conditions will be mainly VFR, but MVFR possible in late night and early morning lower clouds with IFR possible in any patchy fog and in heavier showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters through Monday. The main concern continues to be areas of dense fog which will reduce visibility to 1SM or less. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Mon night through Wednesday. There will be areas of fog, which could at times be locally dense. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...VJN/MCW/CB Marine...VJN/MCW/CB

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