Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210119 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 919 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east into the Maritimes tonight into Sunday. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night and cross the area Monday morning. High pressure will follow on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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9:19 PM Update...A pleasant late summer evening. Areas of low clouds are showing up offshore on the 11u-3.9u satellite product. Expect the low cloud and fog will move across the Down East region overnight as a low level moist return flow continues around a departing sfc high. The low cloud and fog may get advected north into parts of eastern Aroostook County by daybreak, but confidence is not as high across northern areas. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest observations, satellite pictures, and near term model trends. Previous discussion... Another round of low clouds and fog will set up across the region later tonight into early Sunday morning. SSE winds around high pres sitting in the Bay of Fundy will bring llvl moisture into the region tonight. Cloud will advect into the downeast and coast early tonight and then overspread the rest of the region overnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Decided to carry areas of fog w/some areas seeing dense fog w/vsbys dropping AOB 1/2 of a mile. Low clouds and fog will linger into Sunday morning but forecast soundings show good mixing of the southerly winds and sunshine setting up. This will allow for the low clouds and fog to lift and burn off. High pres pushing further e during the day will allow for the south winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph which will allow for an increase in the dewpoints. This in turn will lead to increase in humidity. A cold front apchg from Quebec will bring increasing clouds into the region by the afternoon w/some light rain coming into western areas by late in the day. Used a blend of of the guidance for the pops showing 30-40% for the aforementioned areas by late afternoon. Afternoon temps will be tempered a bit due to the south wind and increasing clouds. Afternoon maxes are forecast to reach mid to upper 70s w/low 70s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong high pressure over the Maritimes will continue to move away to the east as intense low pressure moves north through Quebec Province. A cold front will move across the State Sunday Night. Expect showers across all areas and some thunder south as the front moves through. Strong high pressure is then expected to move in from the west Monday into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure will pass to the south of New England Tuesday Night as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The strong high to the south is expected to dominate into early Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west during the day Thursday. This is expected to result in showers Thursday Night into the day Friday as the front moves across the region. Strong high pressure will then move in from the west Saturday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR late this evening w/MVFR and IFR due to low clouds and fog expected later tonight into Sunday morning, especially so at the Down East terminals. Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR by mid morning as s winds increase. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Monday. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected into Sunday. Kept s winds around 10 kts w/seas averaging 2-3 ft away from the intra coastal zone. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to initialize the wind grids. Will reduce the model winds by 10 percent to account for boundary conditions. For Waves: Wind wave is expected to dominate through this period with wave heights running around 2 feet. Currently some very long period swell showing up in spectral at 44027 (1 foot/13-15 seconds). Believe this is coming from Fiona. Long period swell is expected to persist through Tuesday, however wave heights from long period swell should stay at or below 1 foot. Have used the Near Shore Wave model to populate the wave grids. Boundary conditions look good so will not make and adjustments to wave heights. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hewitt Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Mignone Marine...CB/Hewitt/Mignone

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