Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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173 FXUS61 KCAR 030715 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 215 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will cross the region today. High pressure will build across the region later Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A couple of weak shortwaves will cross the region today. The first will be early this morning and is already producing rain and snow showers at this hour, particularly across far Downeast Maine. This first wave will exit later this morning which may allow for a bit of a break in the shower activity, but then the second wave will come through this evening, resulting in more showers. This second wave is fairly weak so overall shower coverage will be isolated to scattered at best. The showers will wane after midnight, lingering longest over the higher terrain of the North Woods. Snow accumulations today and tonight will be an inch or less. Today`s highs will range from around 30 in the Saint John Valley to the mid and upper 30s in the Bangor region down toward the coast. Colder air will spread behind the aforementioned second shortwave, so overnight temperatures are expected to dip into the teens in the north and the lower and mid 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall a fairly quiet weather pattern. A weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the area Sunday morning with perhaps some flurries or an isolated snow shower in the Saint John Valley. A ridge at the surface and aloft will build into the area Sunday night. The ridge aloft breaks down quickly Monday, but other than perhaps a bit more cloud cover Monday no precipitation is expected. The air mass will be near to just a bit colder than average for early December. Highs Sunday and Monday will remain below freezing acoss central and northern portions of the CWA with highs near freezing across the Down East region. Lows Sun night will be the coldest so far this season with single digits and low teens north to the mid teens to low 20s Down East. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... No high impact weather through Wednesday as another surface high builds into the region Mon night through Tue night. Dry weather with temperatures near to a bit below average through the middle of the week. A lead shortwave is expected to pass south of the region late Wednesday and Wed night. A deep upper trough digs toward the east coast late in the week. A low or series of surface lows are expected to affect the area Thursday into Friday, but there remain differences in the timing and location of the surface lows that would impact amounts and precipitation types. The model ensembles have a large spread with solutions that range from a strong secondary low that tracks into the Bay of Fundy or over Nova Scotia to solutions that keep most of the energy west of the area. High confidence that Thu into Fri will feature some precipitation, but the precipitation types remain uncertain. At this time would favor snow or mostly frozen precipitation across far northern Maine, with much more uncertainty across the southern half of the CWA. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions, mainly due to ceilings, will prevail through this morning at all terminal sites, though the cloud deck may occasionally lift to above 3500 ft. Scattered snow showers...mixed with rain at BGR and BHB, could drop visibility to 4-5SM at times through mid morning or so today. The southern sites will improve to VFR after 16z today, but the northern terminals will continue to see ceilings of 1500-2500 ft through the remainder of the period. SHORT TERM: No significant storms are expected through the middle of next week. MVFR ceilings are possible Sun morning, mainly at the northern Taf sites as a weak disturbance moves through. Otherwise, predominately VFR through mid week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this afternoon through much of tonight. Winds are expected to increase over the waters later today as a weak surface trough ushers colder air southward into the region. Gusts around 25 kt are expected this afternoon and overnight, but offshore winds will keep most waves below 5 ft. Winds will subside toward daybreak Sunday. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below Small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. There is the chance that a small craft advisory could be needed Monday night into Tuesday as another surface high builds toward the waters and the pressure gradient increases. && CLIMATE...A total of 32.3 inches of snow has been observed so far this season at Caribou. It ranks as the 3rd most snow so early in the season behind only 1949 (33.2"), and 1974 (36.3"). The fall season (Sep 1-Nov 30) ranked as the 2nd warmest on record at Caribou with an average temperature of 47.3 degrees. The all- time record of 47.8 degrees from 2011 still stands. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Hastings/CB Marine...Hastings/CB Climate...CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.