Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 231441
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
High pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure
will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast tonight and move
northeast toward the Gulf of Maine Tuesday...then across the
Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --940 am update...
Quick update to ingest t/td grids from current obs.
High pressure was anchored across eastern Quebec early this
morning. The high will remain anchored to our north through
tonight. Mainly cloudy skies this morning will give way to partial
clearing across northern areas today with continued mainly cloudy
skies across central and downeast. Highs today will range from the
upper 20s across northern areas and lower 30 central and downeast.
The high to our north will slowly retreat to the northeast tonight
while low pressure begins to slowly move north from the mid
atlantic region. A wintry mix will gradually begin to overspread
central and downeast areas well after midnight, with northern
areas remaining precipitation free through tonight. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 20s across northern areas and lower 30s
central and downeast.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not much resolution with regard to predominate precip types with
the stm systems xpcted to affect our region Tue Into Wed. With
fairly strong llvl damming of cold air, sn may initially occur
with higher than normal climo values of 1000-500mb and 850-500mb
values at onset, but with cont`d warm advcn alf as llvl cold air
hangs tough spcly ovr N Cntrl ptns of the region, a lengthy pd of
sleet and fzra appears likely. Given the potential of at least 1
inch of sleet and perhaps in narrow belt up to a half inch of
fzra, we xtnded the wntr stm watch to include Srn Piscataquis...
Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook counties, but not enough confidence
for wrngs attm. Wntr wx advs are very likely S of the watch area
possibly to the coast, with coastal Downeast areas going ovr to
all rn late in the day Tue. Winds will increase to near wind adv
alg the immediate coast on Tue as the sfc pres grad increases.
Perhaps far NW ptns of the FA will remain predominately all sn,
but precip ovr the rest of Nrn Me will likely transition to sleet
with even a pd of fzra possible Tue ngt into Wed morn as winds
decrease alg the coast. The latest storm total snowfall we depict
is between the 50the and 75th percentile of the ensemble continuum
of possible snfl scenarios across the region, but with low
confidence as seen by the large spread between the 10th (least)
and 90th (most) percentile forecasts.
By Wed aftn, precip should transition back to sn shwrs across the
N and rn/sn shwrs ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas...becoming all sct
sn shwrs across the region Wed ngt as slightly colder llvl air
works back into the region from the W.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The region will remained unsettled with msly cldy skies and
intermittent sn shwrs as a series of upper lvl troughs cross the
region each followed by progressively colder air, but not much in
the way of deeply cold arctic air attm even by the weekend.
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR ceilings can be expected early this
morning all terminals. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR
later this morning. VFR conditions can be expected at the
northern terminals(KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL)tonight. VFR can be
expected at KBGR/KBHB to start the evening. However, conditions
will begin to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 06z in developing
SHORT TERM: Clgs and vsbys will lower to IFR/LIFR in sn and mixed
precip across our TAF sites on Tue...then mixed precip N and
ra Downeast sites Tue ngt aft a pd of fzra Tue eve at KBGR. Clgs
and vsbys improve SW to NE to MVFR on Wed then cont MVFR with SC
and ocnl flurries and sn shwrs Wed ngt thru Fri.
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to slowly increase through
tonight, with storm force wind gusts expected by early Tuesday
morning, as low pressure slowly moves north from the mid
SHORT TO LONG TERM: No chgs with the current stm/gale wrngs for
Tue. An SCA pd, possibly lengthy, will be needed aftwrds from late
Tue aftn into the late week. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts, with max wv hts apchg 20ft ovr the outer most waters
by Tue aftn.
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
Storm Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.