Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070306 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1006 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK LOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 10PM UPDATE... NO CHANGES. HIGH AND MID CLOUD IS SLOWLY INCREASING AND SLOWING DOWN RADIATIONAL COOLING IN COMPARISON TO LAST EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE H850 MOISTURE WORKING SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLDNSS HAS BEEN DELAYED IN ARRIVING FROM QB PROV...SO WE TM SHIFTED INCREASING CLDNSS TNGT BACK BY 6 HRS TO MATCH CURRENT MCLR CONDITIONS OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CLDNSS WITH THE FIRST S/WV WILL ARRIVE TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT...WITH SCT SN SHWRS MSLY AFFECTING THE FAR NW BY DAYBREAK SAT. WITH THE FIRST S/WV WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE FA SAT...ANY REMAINING SN SHWRS WILL BE MSLY ISOLD ON SAT MORN ACROSS THE N...WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING REDUCING AND SN TO FLURRIES OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. AFT A BREAK BETWEEN S/WVS SAT AFTN AND ERLY EVE...A SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH SN SHWR CVRG OVRNGT SAT. BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS ONLY A FEW LCTNS ACROSS NW ME WILL RECEIVE ARND AN INCH WITH MOST OTHER LCTNS OVR THE N RECEIVING LESS AND CNTRL/DOWNEAST AREAS A TRACE. LOW TEMPS OVRNGT WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND HOW LONG SKIES REMAIN CLR INTO THE OVRNGT...WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS MEANING THAT ACTUAL LOWS TNGT COULD FALL SIG BLO THE CURRENT FCST. IN ANY EVENT...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTN ABOUT 10 DEG F WARMER THAN YSTDY ATTM...A BIT MORE SW BREEZE AND THE POTENTIAL OF MORE CLD CVR BY LATE TNGT SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE TEMPS FROM REACHING LOWS LIKE LAST NGT. OTHERWISE...WITH SOME SUNSHINE XPCTD ON SAT SPCLY DURING THE AFTN...THE WARMING TREND FOR HI TEMPS SHOULD CONT WITH MOST OF THE FA REACHING WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN ARND 30 OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. MORE CLDNSS AND EVEN MILDER 925-850 MB TEMPS SAT NGT WILL TRANSLATE TO EVEN MILDER OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT THEN TNGT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH THE CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWN EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCT SN SHWRS SAT AND SAT NGT MAINLY FROM KHUL NWRD. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THIS PD...WITH ONLY LGT FZGSPY TNGT INTO SAT MORN. KEPT CLOSE TO 1 FT ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/MCW SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...VJN/MCW/DUDA MARINE...VJN/MCW/DUDA

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