Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231441 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 941 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast tonight and move northeast toward the Gulf of Maine Tuesday...then across the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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940 am update... Quick update to ingest t/td grids from current obs. previous discussion High pressure was anchored across eastern Quebec early this morning. The high will remain anchored to our north through tonight. Mainly cloudy skies this morning will give way to partial clearing across northern areas today with continued mainly cloudy skies across central and downeast. Highs today will range from the upper 20s across northern areas and lower 30 central and downeast. The high to our north will slowly retreat to the northeast tonight while low pressure begins to slowly move north from the mid atlantic region. A wintry mix will gradually begin to overspread central and downeast areas well after midnight, with northern areas remaining precipitation free through tonight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across northern areas and lower 30s central and downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Not much resolution with regard to predominate precip types with the stm systems xpcted to affect our region Tue Into Wed. With fairly strong llvl damming of cold air, sn may initially occur with higher than normal climo values of 1000-500mb and 850-500mb values at onset, but with cont`d warm advcn alf as llvl cold air hangs tough spcly ovr N Cntrl ptns of the region, a lengthy pd of sleet and fzra appears likely. Given the potential of at least 1 inch of sleet and perhaps in narrow belt up to a half inch of fzra, we xtnded the wntr stm watch to include Srn Piscataquis... Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook counties, but not enough confidence for wrngs attm. Wntr wx advs are very likely S of the watch area possibly to the coast, with coastal Downeast areas going ovr to all rn late in the day Tue. Winds will increase to near wind adv alg the immediate coast on Tue as the sfc pres grad increases. Perhaps far NW ptns of the FA will remain predominately all sn, but precip ovr the rest of Nrn Me will likely transition to sleet with even a pd of fzra possible Tue ngt into Wed morn as winds decrease alg the coast. The latest storm total snowfall we depict is between the 50the and 75th percentile of the ensemble continuum of possible snfl scenarios across the region, but with low confidence as seen by the large spread between the 10th (least) and 90th (most) percentile forecasts. By Wed aftn, precip should transition back to sn shwrs across the N and rn/sn shwrs ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas...becoming all sct sn shwrs across the region Wed ngt as slightly colder llvl air works back into the region from the W. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The region will remained unsettled with msly cldy skies and intermittent sn shwrs as a series of upper lvl troughs cross the region each followed by progressively colder air, but not much in the way of deeply cold arctic air attm even by the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR ceilings can be expected early this morning all terminals. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR later this morning. VFR conditions can be expected at the northern terminals(KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL)tonight. VFR can be expected at KBGR/KBHB to start the evening. However, conditions will begin to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 06z in developing wintry precipitation. SHORT TERM: Clgs and vsbys will lower to IFR/LIFR in sn and mixed precip across our TAF sites on Tue...then mixed precip N and ra Downeast sites Tue ngt aft a pd of fzra Tue eve at KBGR. Clgs and vsbys improve SW to NE to MVFR on Wed then cont MVFR with SC and ocnl flurries and sn shwrs Wed ngt thru Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to slowly increase through tonight, with storm force wind gusts expected by early Tuesday morning, as low pressure slowly moves north from the mid atlantic. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No chgs with the current stm/gale wrngs for Tue. An SCA pd, possibly lengthy, will be needed aftwrds from late Tue aftn into the late week. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts, with max wv hts apchg 20ft ovr the outer most waters by Tue aftn. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for MEZ001>006-010-031. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Storm Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/Farrar/VJN Marine...Duda/Farrar/VJN

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