Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 222124 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 424 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MILDER FOR TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO TUESDAY W/THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDING STRONG. THIS IS SHOWN QUITE WELL BY THE NAM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 30-40% FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. QPF IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.05" AND SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT W/LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS W/LOWER 30S ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. A LLVL SE FLOW WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN TO SET UP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS W/THE DOWNEAST AND THE CENTRAL AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX OR EVEN SOME FREEZING PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGH PRES RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NE WILL PROVIDE A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL W/READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE LOW TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. WITH STRONG SYSTEM PASSING THE WEST EXPECT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY RAIN ON COAST. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO MIXED PRICIPITATION NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON FAR NORTH. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW IN GULF OF MAINE COULD KEEP FROZEN PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH EVEN LONGER. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED PRECIPITATION THICKNESS TOOL AND BLENDED THE NAM AND GFS 50/50. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY NIGHT GENERATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN MONDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES W/CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE VFR GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT W/CONDITIONS GOING TO IFR FOR TUESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ICING OR EVEN SNOW. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO AHEAD W/A SCA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. E WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE LATER TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED ON TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING AROUND 2 FT BUT THEY WILL START BUILDING ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON REACHING 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD LATE ON 24TH AND PERSISTS UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK WAVE IN GULF OF MAINE AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECT WAVE HEIGHT TO BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 12 FEET/9-10 SECONDS ON THE 25TH. HAVE RUN THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL AND USED IT TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS CONCERN FOR RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND THE PROJECTED 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE LOAD W/SIGNIFICANT RISES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS. THE NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS SUCH AS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK HAVE ICE ON THEM BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF OPEN WATER. AN ICE JAM STILL EXISTS ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IN FORT FAIRFIELD. WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST ALONG W/TEH EXPECTED RUNOFF COULD ALLOW FOR THE ICE JAM TO BREAK UP AND MOVE. ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT BASIN, SOME ICE WAS NOTED BUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE WATERWAYS WERE OPEN. WASHINGTON COUNTY IS A CONCERN AS THE ST. CROIX RIVER IS RUNNING HIGH W/THE WATER BEING RELEASED FROM THE DAMS INTO THE RIVER. IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS THE 2 INCH MARK, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE EVENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PRIMARY CONCERN IS RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE WAVE EVENT. COINCIDENCE OF A NEW MOON ON 22 DECEMBER WITH LUNAR PERIGEE ON 24 DECEMBER WILL PRODUCE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. HIGHEST TIDES OF MONTH ON 23RD AND 24TH BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE 26TH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND FIELD WEAKER ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE 24TH THROUGH THE 25TH WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LARGEST WAVES ARRIVING LATE OF 25... AROUND 12 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. WITH WITH WEAKER GRADIENT NOW EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MAINE THE THREAT OF TIDAL FLOODING HAS NOW BEEN REDUCED DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS. WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES... BAR HARBOR TIDES OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR OVERTOPPING ARE: THURSDAY 1250 EST (1750Z) 12.73 FEET MLLW AND FRIDAY 0126 EST (0626Z) 11.80 FEET MLLW. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...HEWITT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE

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