Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300052 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 852 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 845 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO HRLY FCST TEMPS TO UNCHGD POSTED OVRNGT LOWS AT ARND 3 AM BASED ON 8 PM OBSVD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOWED A POSITIVE BIAS UPWARDS OF 2 TO 3 DEG F SPCLY OVRNGT NE PTNS OF THE FA COMPARED TO THE PREV FCST FOR THIS HR. WE ALSO MODIFIED FCST HRLY DWPTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT...AGAIN USING 8 PM OBS AS A BASIS FOR THE UPDATE. THE REST OF THE FCST ELEMENTS FOR THE OVRNGT LOOK TO BE ON TARGET AND REMAIN UNCHGD FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TOO MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME MORNING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO IT`LL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY; HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE WE SEE ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THEREAFTER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS WITH THIS FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, TAKING IT WELL OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY AND STALLS IT OVER CENTRAL/DOWNEAST MAINE. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS THEN BRING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY- SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE GFS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, WE DON`T GET ANY DIRECT IMPACTS WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BRING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND SNOW IN THE NORTH. THEN PERHAPS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT, STUCK CLOSE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE THURSDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS GIVES A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE END OF THE WEEK INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT. MVFR DEVELOPING MONDAY IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TUESDAY IN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MOST OF TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHORT TERM: ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL, HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY TO 25-30 KT INTO THURSDAY, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE DAYS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS

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