Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021242 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 842 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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840 AM UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY SO EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 14Z AND CONTINUED FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY TEMP/DP/SKYCON AND WND/POP. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS DOWNEAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE RAIN FREE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE THIS MORNING IN FOG...THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 10 AM. EXPECT SKC FOR CAR...FVE...PQI...AND HUL AFTER 9AM. EXPECT FOG TO START SETTING BACK INTO THE ABV SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK. ANTICIPATE THAT THE BKN015 CONDITIONS TO SCT OUT AROUND 9AM. EXPECT THAT FOG WILL SETTLE INTO THE BGR AND BHB AREAS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB WITH IFR POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN STEADY RAIN. MVFR/IFR EARLY SUNDAY IN RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA

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