Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011305 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 905 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 900 AM UDPATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON...AND HRLY TEMPS. MAINLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO BURN OFF. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO START POPPING UP AS A SMALL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY TODAY. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING CAPES UP TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT. WITH HUMID AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN DOWNEAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TUESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN FOG DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS

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