Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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119 FXUS61 KCAR 221046 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 646 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A very strong Arctic front will cross the region today while low pressure intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure will build across the region later Thursday through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.. 630am update...Didn`t change any details on this forecast, but latest trends and guidance are showing a bit less snowfall and most activity done by early to mid afternoon. High winds, blowing snow and temporarily reduced visibilities remain the biggest concerns...rather than the amount of snow. Previous discussion... With winter weather headlines already in place, will maintain these headlines and add wind advisories for zones that weren`t already covered by the winter weather advisory or wind advisory. In terms of the snow, it looks like most of the snow will be with the Arctic front rather than moisture wrapped back into the state from the emerging low in the Canadian Maritimes. As a result, do not anticipate any accumulations greater than 3 inches and many areas will receive an inch or less. The biggest impact with regards to the snow will be heavier squalls that reduce visibility towards a quarter mile as the front crosses this morning. Blowing snow will contribute to these reduced visibilities. The winds will be big factor this afternoon...increasing with intensification of the low. Gusts to 50 mph should be easily attainable with a deep mixed layer and very strong cold air advection. The winds will continue into the evening and have maintained the wind advisory to 2am. Power outages will be a threat for the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening. In terms of temperatures, they will plummet through the entire day and tonight with the Arctic air mass. Wind chills will dip towards -15F tonight in northern zones and in the -5 to -10F range for Bangor and the Down East region. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night with generally partly cloudy skies north with mostly clear skies Downeast. Northwest winds will remain gusty Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. High pressure then moves east Friday with a warm front crossing the region. Expect increasing clouds Friday with a chance of snow showers north, along with a chance of snow/rain showers Downeast. A cold front then crosses the region Friday night with a chance of snow showers. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Thursday, with slightly below normal level temperatures Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure crosses the region Saturday through Sunday with generally partly/mostly sunny skies. Low pressure tracks south of the region Monday, with high pressure centered to the north. Uncertainty still exists regarding whether the high will be able to keep the precipitation shield with the low entirely south of the forecast area and have included only a slight chance of snow at this time. High pressure moves east early Tuesday with a cold front approaching late. Expect increasing clouds Tuesday, with a chance of snow/rain mostly late. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, levels Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: The first concern until the frontal passage will be patchy fog for BGR and BHB. Any fog will rapidly go away early this morning with arrival of the front. The front will bring a new set of aviation problems with IFR vis in snow and very strong and gusty northwest winds. Most terminals will have periods of IFR vis in snow towards mid-morning into the afternoon. Winds will steadily ramp up such that by late afternoon into the evening, northwesterly gusts could reach 50 mph. This will also cause reduced vis due to blowing snow. The winds will continue through the evening and slowly diminish after midnight. It will be VFR for all terminals after this evening when the snow moves out and blowing snow decreases. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Thursday. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph Thursday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Friday. Generally expect VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will increase very rapidly this morning as a cold front crosses. A few gusts towards 50 kts cannot be ruled out by this evening and seas will go from current levels around 2 feet to over 14 feet by this evening. The winds will be northwest. Will maintain the gale warning rather upgrading to a storm as sustained storm-level gusts are not anticipated. Freezing spray becomes a factor later this afternoon through the night and will maintain the current advisory. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts up to gale levels are still possible early Thursday. Small craft advisory level conditions are then expected Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Moderate freezing spray is expected early Thursday with a Freezing Spray Advisory in effect through the morning. Light freezing spray is expected later Thursday into Thursday night.
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ002-005-006-011-017-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001- 003-004-010. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ015-016-029>031. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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