Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140300 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach northern Maine overnight. The cold front will move into the area on Saturday and stall Saturday night. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Update... High pressure will exit east of the maritimes overnight, while a cold front approaches northern areas late. Skies will be mostly cloudy across the region overnight. Could also have scattered showers late, mostly across northern areas. Overnight low temperatures will generally range through the 40s across the forecast area. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and shower chances. Previous Discussion... The cold front will cross the region with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers Saturday. Will use a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS for pops. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s north, to the mid to upper 60s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cdfnt wl be trying to drop south Sat night but wl weaken ovr the area with hipres nosing in fm Canada. Dwpts wl drop slightly acrs the St. John Vly arnd midnight Sat night. Low-lvl winds begin to increase Sun mrng as system wraps up back to the west. This system wl be forced east by H5 system currently dropping into Pacific NW. Upglide begins to increase acrs far nw after 06z Sun and overrunning lifting north Sun mrng. Wmfnt lifts thru CWA Sun aftn with bulk of the rain acrs the St. John Vly. Areas of fog acrs pretty much entire area aft midnight Sat night with frontolysis occurring directly ovrhd. Expect areas of fog to persist until shortly aft daybreak, possibly longer near the coast thru most of the day Sunday. LLJ kicks in Sun aftn with H9 winds arnd 40kts acrs Downeast late in the aftn. Questions continue to linger on how stable airmass wl be to prevent much in the way of mixing ahd of front which now appears to not mv thru until closer to Mon mrng. Potential exists for winds to gust upward of 40 MPH in the higher terrain along the coast Sun evng with gusts btwn 35-40 MPH in the higher terrain on Sun aftn. Wl continue to highlight wind threat for Sun aftn and evng with impacts due to leaves rmng on the trees. Frontal bndry looks to mv thru Sun night tho med-range models differ significantly on timing. Latest NAM does not mv it out of CWA until after 12z Mon with EC mvg it out by 06z and GFS/CMC the compromise. Cannot rule out a line of gusty showers immediately along the front, with perhaps some lightning, hwvr wl not highlight specific threat until fropa gets better resolved regarding timing. Mon mrng temps wl start off arnd 40F acrs the North Woods and in the l50s in Downeast with just a very small diurnal range expected in the aftn as caa continues to mv into the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridge axis wl impact state at the beginning of the extndd pd with well blo normal temps Mon night and Tue. May see isold showers acrs the north Tue/Tue ngt as upr lvl trof mvs thru Quebec. Aft wv passes expect high pressure to influence area`s wx with moderating temps thru the end of the week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions, mostly ceilings, will develop across the region overnight with IFR conditions also possible. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the region early Saturday, with VFR/MVFR conditions during the afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR possible all terminals Sat aftn, gradually improving during the evng hrs. Expect IFR/LIFR late Sat night as onshore flow brings in low clouds and fog to southern terminals thru most of Sunday. Further north wl lkly see MVFR/IFR Sun afternoon as warm front lifts through and remain until cold frontal passage. All terminals expected to see gusty sw winds Sun aftn and evening.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Saturday. Visibilities could be reduced in fog Saturday afternoon. Have used the NAM for winds Saturday. For waves: Currently the primary wave system is a long period southeasterly swell (around 1 foot/8-9 seconds). A secondary southerly wind wave is also present. Later this evening the southerly winds are expected to increase and the wind wave group will become the primary wave system. Will use the Nearshore prediction system to populate the wave grids. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Sun aftn before increasing to above SCA. Winds may gust to gale conditions late Sun afternoon into the evening hours. Seas will build to between 8-12 feet Sunday night before diminishing by Monday night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Norcross/Farrar Marine...Norcross/Mignone/Farrar

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