-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231129
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM UPDATE: DECIDED TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AS THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND SHOULD START
TO WARM AS WEAK WAA CONTINUES TODAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW W/THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z UA INDICATED WAA UNDERWAY PER THE 850MBS ANALYSIS. A
JETSTREAK OF 45 KTS AT 700MBS WILL SWEEP FROM CENTRAL CANADA
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH 700MBS W/DECENT FORCING. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO BREAK OUT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 60% MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND AROOSTOOK COUNTY. QPF IS FORECAST TO BE
AT BEST AROUND 0.10 INCHES. SNOW RATIOS OF AT LEAST 12:1 COULD
YIELD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS,
GENERALLY SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TODAY W/DAYTIME READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST W/MID TO UPPER 20S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH
TONIGHT W/READINGS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND TRACK OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACOSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONES 16...17 AND 32..WHERE A SWATH
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL START OUT AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND JUST RAIN ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY DUE
TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA...CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE STORM TRACK OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA MAINLY DRY AND COLD DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR TODAY AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/PERIODS
OF IFR. KBGR AND KBHB LOOKS TO STAY VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM:
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
IFR TO MVFR WITH LIFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID
ATLC REGION. FOLLOWED THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT CLOSELY W/BRINGING
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO A RANGE OF 4 TO 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM:
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN TURN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES