-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 070138
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
830 PM UPDATE: OBSVD HRLY TEMPS FOR BOTH 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVE WERE
INCORPORATED IN THE FCST HRLY TEMP TREND TO OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT
6 AM FRI MORN TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-LINEAR HRLY TEMP FALL RATES INTO
THE OVRNGT HRS...SPCLY ACROSS BROAD VLY LCTNS. OTHERWISE...SAT
IMAGERY DOES SHOW TRANSVERSE BANDS OF HI THIN CI BEGINNING TO APCH
THE ST LAWRENCE VLY EVEN WITH FAR NW ME...SO THE IDEA OF INCLUDING
A LITTLE CI ACROSS THE FAR N LATER TNGT MAY PAN OUT.

530 PM UPDATE: MINOR CHGS TO PRIOR FCST OVRNGT LOWS...OTHERWISE
A LITTLE EARLY TO ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR TRENDS IN TEMPS INTO THE
OVRNGT THIS UPDATE BASED ON 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS. THE ONLY OTHER
MENTION IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT PERHAPS SOME SCT CI
FROM A HI CLD BAND CURRENTLY OVR NRN/CNTRL QB COULD GRAZE FAR
NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN...SO WE DID INCREASE
CLD CVR A BIT OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA FROM ZERO FOR THIS PD.

ORGNL DISC: CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER STEEP
AND SHALLOW RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM TONIGHT WITH ONE MORE
NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SUBZERO READINGS. THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY AND
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS. HAVE
GONE BELOW MOST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH SHARP TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS EXPECTED BETWEEN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
DUE TO THE SHALLOW INVERSION. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS H925 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 13 TO 16 BELOW RANGE. THE INVERSION WILL BE
QUICKLY ELIMINATED IN THE MORNING BY RELATIVELY WARM SW WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH UP TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN EAST AND IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE SW FLOW WITH READINGS OVER
20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND A
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40 SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
WILL BE WEAK AND LOOKS TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT RISK OF IFR VIS AT BHB NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY AS MOIST AIR MOVES NORTH FROM THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: VFR WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY IN THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING
MVFR CIGS. A PAIR OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS COULD ALSO BRING PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THESE
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING RIGHT OVER THE
WATERS...BUT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

SHORT TERM:
A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WITH OTHERWISE RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS