-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 202213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of the region tonight as a weather
disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift
north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will
build south of the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6:13 PM Update...A line of showers and thunderstorms extends
from near Houlton to northern Hancock County as of 6 PM. These
showers and storms will exit into New Brunswick by around 8 PM.
A weak disturbance in the wake of this line could touch off an
isolated shower late this evening or overnight, but no thunder
is expected once this line exits the area. Have allowed the
flash flood watch to expire. Although there will be some heavy
downpours with the thunderstorms, there has been little rain in
Hancock and Washington Counties the past couple of days, and
flash flooding is not expected. Mainly just some minor tweaks to
the ongoing forecast based on the latest observations, radar
trends, and near term model trends.

Previous discussion...
Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms late
this afternoon. Showers are producing very heavy downpours. For
example, NWS Caribou got 0.55 inches in just 15 minutes.
Thankfully, training has been limited and no storms have been
severe.

Showers will die off quickly after dark. Could be some fog
persisting mainly near the coast, but with some drier air
working in, don`t think it will be as foggy as previous
nights/days.

Shortwave moving through Wednesday will spark scattered showers
again, but airmass will be cooler and a bit drier on Wednesday,
so think that thunder will be limited to the slightly juicier
airmass from about Millinocket south, with just showers in the
north. Somewhat breezy out of the southwest as the cooler, drier
air moves in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Next in a series of short waves associated with the upper
low across eastern Quebec province will pull east of the region
Wednesday evening followed by partial clearing and cooler
weather Wednesday night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop back
to around 50 across the far north and the low to mid 50s down
east.

We finally get a break from all the rain on Thursday as a drier
westerly flow aloft is expected to bring a mainly sunny and
seasonably warm day to the region. Highs will range from the
lower 70s north and mid to upper 70s down east but it will be
cooler along the coast.

Clouds begin to increase Thursday night in advance of an approaching
warm front with lows from the mid to upper 50s.

Friday is shaping up as another wet day with periods of heavy
rain possible at times. Airmass is expected to moisten back up
with dew points rising back into the lower 60s in advance of low
pressure approaching from the west. Looks as if the best
instabilty will be just to our west and have included chance
thunder into portions of Piscataquis county Friday afternoon.
Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 70s north and mid
to upper 70s downeast bit of course cooler along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The wet weather will potentially linger into Saturday before we
briefly dry out again Saturday night into Sunday. Another
disturbance will bring the chance for more showers by early
next week. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday and Sunday
and then trend a bit below normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR late this afternoon outside of the
scattered showers and thunderstorms, and outside of the
immediate coastal fog. Away from the immediate coast, tonight
generally will be VFR, although late in the night or early
Wednesday morning there may be a period of MVFR ceilings at some
sites. The coast is tricky: low clouds and fog are eroding along
coastal Hancock but persisting along coastal Washington. Think
that the coast will have patchy IFR through tonight with the
greater probability of VFR toward coastal Hancock. The coast
should improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon. VFR during the
afternoon Wednesday outside of scattered showers and isolated
storms.


SHORT TERM: VFR weather expected Wednesday night through
Thursday night. MVFR/IFR is possible Friday and Saturday in
rain. VFR returns for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft for hazardous seas into Wednesday
morning. Seas away from immediate coast remain in the vicinity
of 6 feet, but winds are generally a bit below small craft
levels. Some fog persisting over the waters, but probably not as
bad as it has been.


SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory may be needed for seas
Wednesday night and then again Friday and saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Foisy
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Foisy/Duda
Marine...CB/Foisy/Duda