Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201003 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 603 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build to the south of the area today and Monday. Low pressure will pass to the west of the region Tuesday night and a cold front will cross the area Wednesday. High pressure will build back toward the area at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:03 AM Update...Low clouds and areas of fog cover much of the forecast area early this morning with some breaks showing up across central portions of the CWA. An area of showers is showing up on radar just southwest of the area and will move across Downeast Maine this morning. Additional showers will likely develop and move across northern areas later this morning into early afternoon. The main update was to the PoPs for this morning to better account for the area of showers that will be moving across the Downeast Region. Previous discussion... An occluded front crossing the region early this morning will push east. High pressure will build south of the region later today and tonight. A mid level trough axis will move into western Maine this morning and will flatten out as it shifts east of the area by this afternoon. The forecast area is blanketed by low stratus and areas of fog early this morning, although there are a few breaks in the clouds in central portions of the CWA. The low clouds will lift this morning as westerly flow develops. As the mid level trough crosses the area the combination of the residual moisture, daytime heating, and lift will likely produce some more scattered showers later this morning into the first half of the afternoon, mainly across northern and eastern portions of the CWA. It should turn into a nice afternoon by late in the day with at least partial sunshine and lowering humidity. There will be very steep lapse rates from 8-10C/KM below 800H which will lead to a gusty west wind that will gust to 20 to 30 mph at times from later this morning until shortly before sunset. Highs this afternoon will be about 10 degrees (F) warmer than Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 70s in the Saint John Valley to the low 80s in the Greater Bangor Region. Tonight will be clear to p/cloudy, and as the atmosphere rapidly decouples toward sunset the wind will become light. The air mass aloft is quite mild and this will limit the potential cooling with lows mostly in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Very warm and increasingly humid weather can be expected to start the work week as an area of high pressure builds across to our south. Temperatures at H925 warm to about +22C during Monday across portions of the region with mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s across much of the region, which is several degrees above normal for this time of year. A cold front will approach from the northwest Monday night with partly to mostly cloudy skies across northern areas and the chance for late night showers. Across central and down east expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows Monday night will be well above normal, with lows expected to generally range from the low to mid 60s across the region. The front will stall across far northern areas Tuesday as an area of low pressure tracks northeast across Quebec province. The combination of the stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of northern Maine and low pressure to our northwest will result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during Tuesday, especially across northern areas. An increasingly moist air mass is expected to be in place with dew points in the low to mid 60s and precipitable water values expected to increase to greater than 1.50" which could lead to the possibility of locally heavy rainfall later Tuesday afternoon across northern areas, especially in any thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday will again be above normal for this time of year, with highs expected to range from the mid to upper 70s north and low to mid 80s down east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will continue to track to our north Tuesday night with a warm front lifting up across the region to our north. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight Tuesday, as a warm and humid air mass remains in place across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The cold front is expected to cross northern areas Wednesday morning and reach the down east coast later Wednesday afternoon. Expect a continued chance for showers with the passage of the front. A large area of high pressure will then begin to build east toward the region Wednesday night through Saturday, with a much cooler and drier air mass spreading across the region for mid week into next weekend. With an upper trof remaining to our north couldn`t rule out an isolated shower across northern areas through late week, otherwise expect mainly dry weather through the period with temperatures expected to below normal by late week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VLIFR to IFR ceilings early this morning will lift to VFR by 13z to 15Z. VFR expected from 15Z this morning through 12Z Monday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions can be expected Monday and Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday afternoon, especially at the northern terminals, with the potential for sub VFR conditions at times. Expect MVFR conditions Tuesday night in showers and thunderstorms, along with patchy fog. Showers can be expected into Wednesday with mainly VFR expected. VFR expected on Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Areas of fog will produce poor visibility early this morning. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Monday into Tuesday. Winds/seas may could increase to small craft advisory levels by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Visibility will likely be reduced to 1 to 3 nm Tuesday night in showers and thunderstorms, along with patchy fog. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda

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