Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221656 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach this morning and cross the region on this afternoon and evening. Another secondary cold front with an upper level low will approach from the northwest on Saturday and cross the area Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1255 PM Update: Latest radar showed area of showers and embedded tstms in Quebec moving toward western Maine border. 16Z mesoanalysis indicated MUCAPES apchg 1000 joules w/0-6km shear up to 35-40 kts. 0-3KM lapse rates at 7 c/km w/mid level lapse rates around 6.5 c/km attm. HRRR continues to be the mesoscale guidance that has the best handle on the situation. Still expecting the atmosphere to destabilize more w/strong to severe storms holding holding back by 2 hrs. Northern and western areas first and then central and interior downeast by later this afternoon into the evening. Issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the threats with this event. Raised afternoon maxes as well based latest readings. Interior Downeast including Bangor heating up faster than expected as BGR is already at 90F which is well above the convective temp. Previous Discussion... It`s difficult to pin down what ptn of the FA will see the most activity attm, with different meso models showing different scenarios, but it seems likely that there could be multiple clusters of tstms this aftn into erly eve. Max fcst SBCAPEs are fcst to reach from 1500 J/kg across the N to perhaps as high as 2250 J/kg ovr the lower Penobscot vly by mid to late aftn with fcst 0-6km bulk shears xpctd to reach 30 to 40 kt, meaning that some storms could produce strong gusty winds, with hail size being somewhat lmtd by high fzls. Tstm cvrg should dissipate to isold by late tngt with the loss of day tm htg. For now, given decent fcst forward motion of tstms, we did not go for hvy QPF for any ptn of the FA, but cannot rule out lclzd hvy rnfl due in the event of training of tstms ovr particular lctns. High temps tdy will be dependent on how much sunshine ptns of our FA receive, with warm ovrngt lows again due to warm moist air holding ovr the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... For Saturday, look for a continued threat of storms throughout the area. Slightly cooler air moves in aloft from the northwest, but it will still be fairly warm at lower levels of the atmosphere (highs upper 70s to mid 80s) along with decent moisture. An upper level trough passing through will help ignite the storms. Any storms could contain small hail. Quieting down Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure moves in as well as slightly drier air. Can`t rule out a few showers over far Eastern Maine Sunday, but generally Sunday is looking dry with highs still warm with upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperatures remaining above average Monday night through Friday. Shot at showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday with the passage of a weak upper level trough. Then dry Wednesday with showers and storm chances returning possibly Thursday and more likely Friday. Models in decent agreement in the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR across the TAF sites thru this eve with ocnly MVFR vsbys with heavier shwrs and brief IFR vsbys with tstms this aftn into early eve. MVFR and brief IFR vsbys are also possible late tngt with patchy fog. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR Saturday through Monday. Locally worse conditions possible Saturday however due to showers and storms. Next shot at widespread MVFR/IFR comes with a system Monday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for marginal haz seas ovr our outer MZ waters for tngt, but we needed to slow down the rate of rise of wv hts from late last ngt thru this morn based on latest buoy obs. Wv hts should lower to below 5 ft ovr the outer waters by 8 am Sat. Cannot rule out marine ST and patchy fog especially tngt due to relatively moist trop air flowing NE ovr the cold Gulf of ME waters. SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft levels Saturday to Monday. Seas 2 to 4 feet Saturday through Monday with winds around 10 knots. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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