-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 070240
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WELL SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
940 PM UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MAINE (SOUTH OF PORTLAND) AND ALONG THE NH SEACOAST.
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE 25 DBZ RETURNS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...BUT
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MAINE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BRUSH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND
MAY LEAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE OUTER ISLANDS...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PULL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY
TURNS COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE OPEN WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SNOW IS
EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST. HAVE ADDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN INCH FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL DIP TO THE TEENS IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW TO MID
20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH ON SATURDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S FOR DOWN EAST AND THE BANGOR
AREA. COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES. GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 25 MPH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC WILL INTRODUCE MORE
H925-H850 MOISTURE IN NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING AND EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF HOULTON. FURTHER
SOUTH...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. INTERESTING FORECAST COMING
UP FOR MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND KEEP WNW WINDS UP A BIT LONGER. VERY COLD AIR FOR EARLY
DECEMBER SETTING UP TO INVADE THE CWA IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS S OF
A HOULTON TO MILLINOCKET LINE. HIGH PRES SLIDING ACROSS NYS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE REGION WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES
W/DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HIGH IS FCST TO LIFT NE INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRES APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD W/SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
BEFORE CLOUDS FILL IN. DECIDED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BY AT 5 DEGREES SHOWING AROUND ZERO FOR THE N AND W WHILE 5 TO 10
ABOVE SHOULD WORK ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST AS 10
TO 15 IS IN THE FCST ATTM. LOW PRES IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MIX W/OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES TO AT LEAST 80%
W/SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND SNOW/RAIN FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND SNOW GOING TO RAIN FOR THE COAST. THE 12Z GFS/NAM AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL SUPPORT THE ECMWF W/THIS SETUP FOR THE MOST PART
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE OUT OF THE REGION WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWER MODEL. SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW PLAN TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND TO RESOLVE FORECAST
PERIOD. POPS WILL DECREASE FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SOME WRAP AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THINKING THE QPF
WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST OF THAT OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS GRADIENT WILL
AID IN USHERING IS COLD AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR VIS
IN SNOW FOR BHB LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
MORNING FOR HUL NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY MONDAY TO MVFR AND IFR. SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SNOW/RAIN FOR KBGR AND KBHB FOR MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN SITES MONDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-4 FT THIS EVE AT THE EASTERN MAINE
SHELF WITH A NW WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. A SCA IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION WITH NWS GRAY OFFICE...HAVE
CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ISSUANCE UNTIL TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE MARITIMES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT
MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT