


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --861 FXUS61 KCAR 081840 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 240 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A cold front moves south this evening, with high pressure building in from the north. High pressure remains over the area through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --The cold front has finally shifted offshore, pulling any lingering rain showers off the coast and leaving behind cloudy skies for the Downeast region this evening. This band of overcast skies will continue to slowly shift southwards much like the surface boundary, and exit off the coast late tonight into the day on Wednesday, leading to drier weather on Wednesday and temperatures lifting into the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the forecast area. A weak inverted trough may setup to the west, leading to some local shower and storm development over the Central Highlands during peak diurnal heating hours. Wednesday night the next front will begin to approach from the west, increasing shower chances. That said, with how slow the downstream pattern has been progressing, this feature may not make its way into our area until early Thursday morning. A few showers may move into the North Woods and Central Highlands late Wednesday night, with mild low temperatures around 60 throughout the forecast area under increasing cloud cover.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --On Thursday, vertically stacked low pressure system to our northwest in Quebec bring the next chance for precipitation this week. There is a potential for a weak low-level coastal low to develop off the primarily low, as indicated in the GFS, which could cause some additional rainfall totals along the coast. Forecasting rain during the day Thursday, alongside a few isolated thunderstorms, based on instability. Confidence in thunder is low at this time, as model trends are not consistent, with instability parameters relatively low and lapse rates not impressive. PWATS range from 1-1.50 based on GFS and NAM model runs. Decided to keep rain totals under a quarter of an inch throughout the state. Winds become veering with height on Thursday, bringing in some warmer air with plenty of moisture throughout the atmosphere, keeping skies overcast. Easterly winds keep the immediate coastline along the Gulf of Maine a few degrees cooler. Thursday evening into Friday, Quebec low begins to move northeastward. Overcast skies continue, with low temperatures in the upper 50s, to low 60s. Rain showers continue overnight into the day on Friday, with the highest chance of precipitation north of I-95. Highs on Friday in the low-to-mid 70s. Very slight chance for scattered thunderstorms in the Crown of Maine from due to favorable lapse rates and a bit of CAPE, but confidence is low.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure axis moves over Maine on Friday night, followed by a brief period of ridging, before a low-pressure to the northwest brings some shortwaves into the region Sunday. Another low system moves through Quebec early next week. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in northern Maine on Saturday and Sunday. Chance for light rain showers early next week. High temperatures in the 70s, generally increasing up to the 80s by early next week. Lows generally in the upper 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Downeast terminals: BGR low end VFR early this evening before diminishing to IFR overnight in low cigs and possible fog. Coastal sites likely to see continued IFR/LIFR conditions overnight in low cigs and return of fog. N winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable overnight. Aroostook terminals: VFR this evening, with HUL the last to improve from MVFR. VFR through tonight. Winds light and variable through tonight. All terminals likely to see VFR conditions Wednesday through Wednesday night with light and variable winds. SHORT TERM: Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR/IFR conditions at all terminals due to rain showers. Winds from the SE winds 5-10 kts. Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers. Slight chance for some scattered thunderstorms in far northern terminals. Winds from the SE at 5-10 kts. Friday night...VFR/MVFR conditions in light rain showers, that will taper off overnight. Light winds from the S/SE. SaturdaySaturday night...VFR conditions at southern terminals, MVFR conditions possible in northern terminals in rain showers. VFR conditions overnight. Slight chance for thunderstorms in far northern terminals. Light winds from the S/SE. Sunday MVFR conditions in northern terminals from light rain showers. Winds from the S at 5-10 kts.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through mid week. Visibilities will be reduced by patchy fog tonight through mid week. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria for the rest of the week. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters. Easterly winds at 5-10 kts on Thursday, shifting to southerly by Friday. Potential for rain showers Thursday into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...Brennan Long Term...Brennan Aviation...AStrauser/Brennan Marine...AStrauser/Brennan