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000
FXUS61 KCAR 192011
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF
THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC
WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH
WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV
FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE
MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND...
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT
FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE
LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE
GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE
INTO TUE EVE.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV
OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY
NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED
MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED
NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN
SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N.

OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF
OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND
SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE
FA.

AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR
WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE
GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC
POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE
DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF KFVE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. KFVE WILL
HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH 00Z, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS
THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT
WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARMER
SEAS OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT
WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY.
WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH
OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS
(WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON
HI BIAS.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIC ON AREA RIVERS. ICE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE SAINT JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS
OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH
AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF
MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
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&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS