Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311926 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 326 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS AREA FOR RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY...BRINING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVER-RUN A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT ADVECTED INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIES AXIS OF QPF TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE TO .50" OF RAIN COULD FALL. FURTHER NORTH DRY 1000-850MB AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF HOULTON. MOST MESO-MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP PUSHING OUT BY LATE EVENING...WITH A SHORT BREAK AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE RAIN QUICKLY RETURNS TO DOWNEAST MAINE AS A WEAKENING VORT MAX FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PUSHES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF HOULTON WITH ANOTHER .75" OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AGAIN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MONDAY WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE UNDER THINNER CLOUD COVER REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT COASTAL MAINE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID-50S UNDER RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNDESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH TO OVER 1.50 INCHES NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND AFTER A COOL THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE STATE EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES BY LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MAINE...BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KBGR/KBHB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE A SMALL BREAK IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. A SECOND WAVE OR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR ACROSS ALL NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS WITH CIGS MOSTLY ABOVE 10K AGL. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THORUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUMONT SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...DUMONT/OKULSKI MARINE...DUMONT/OKULSKI

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