Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241308 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Thursday afternoon and track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:10 AM Update: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. Weak high pressure across the area will bring a partly to mostly sunny sky across the north today while Downeast areas stay partly to mostly cloudy. A small area of low pressure lifting east from a large upper trough centered over the midwest will track to our south this afternoon. A bit of moisture north of that low may stray into southwestern areas this afternoon bringing more cloudiness and a chance for a light showers. Otherwise, today will be dry across the region. The dry weather will persist tonight as high pressure consolidating north of the Maritimes influences our weather. High temperatures today will generally be in the low 70s across the area with lows tonight in the upper 40s to near 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some rain expected later Thursday night into Friday. High pres to the north will provide dry air down into the CWA on Thursday holding off the rain from the low apchg from the south. Mdl sounding including the NAM and GFS confirm this to be the case w/mid and high level moisture coming into the area on Thursday. The soundings also show an ese flow up through 700mbs which will aid in moistening the llvls by late in the day Thursday into Thursday night. Rain is forecast to move into southern areas Thursday night as low pres lifts up into southern New England. As the low lifts nne into Friday, rain will overspread the rest of the region w/periods of heavy as the upper flow becomes difluent. Confidence was high enough to ramp pops up to 80-90% by Friday. The latest runs of the ECMWF/Canadian Global and GFS show the system filling as it gets captured by the upper low w/rain beginning to wind down from sw to ne by Friday afternoon. QPF is a blend of the guidance w/the NERFC`S data including. This yields rainfall totals from this event close to an inch across central and downeast areas while northern areas see 0.25-0.50 inches. This is subject to change as new guidance arrives later today. The warmest of the days will come Thursday as daytime temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s away from the coast. The ese wind will keep readings lower along the coast. Friday will feature temps running well below normal for late May w/readings only topping out in the 50s due to the expected rain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Drying out Friday night and continuing through Sunday. Another shot of rain possible Monday into Tuesday. The low is forecast to move quickly away from the region Friday night w/rain coming to an end and some clearing expected. Saturday into Sunday look to remain dry and close to seasonal norms as high pres builds across the region. The ECWMF and Canadian Global show the high to the n staying anchored in right through the weekend w/showers around the periphery of northern and western Maine. The GFS wants to bring to some showers across northern areas w/a warm front w/some measurable rainfall. Attm, confidence is low and decided to keep pops 20% or less. As stated above, another round of rain expected Monday and possibly continuing into Tuesday as a large low pres system moves across the Great Lakes region. The latest runs of the long range guidance suggest this system to hang around into mid week w/unsettle weather. There is still plenty of time to assess this possible event. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight along with light winds. SHORT TERM: VFR into Thursday evening for all terminals. KBGR and KBHB will see conditions deteriorate to MVFR and then IFR Thursday night into Friday. Northern terminals will hang on to VFR into early Friday morning. Conditions however will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR across the northern terminals by midday Friday w/rain. Conditions are forecast to improve slightly to MVFR late in the day on Friday for all terminals including KBGR and KBHB. Conditions look like they will improve to VFR by Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will gradually increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The winds will be out of the ese which will allow seas to build. Thinking is that a Small Craft Advisory would most likely be needed on Thursday into early Friday especially for seas. Winds and seas are expected to drop back Friday night into Saturday as the low pulls away and winds go offshore. High astronomical tides expected Thursday night into early Friday. Wave guidance is showing the potential for a surge of 1.0 foot or so Thursday night and again Friday w/seas of 5-7 ft. Water levels could get close but attm, the local wave model keeps readings below high water levels. The daycrew can assess this further today. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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