Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 252030 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 430 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE HIGH PRES RIDING CONTINUING ITS MOVE TO THE E. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVANCING TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND LOWER OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. THIS WARM OCCLUSION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THROUGH PRETTY QUICK W/A SW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND W/CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING, SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AOB FREEZING AS FAR S AS THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS OCCLUSION. A DECENT JET(50 KTS) RESIDES AT 850-700MBS ALLOWING FOR LIFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILE MOISTENING UP AFTER 03Z W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN QUICKLY, SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS SLEET. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR- CALAIS REGION AND THEN THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE COAST. ANY SNOWFALL WILL LESS THAN AN INCH AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. FOR THURSDAY, THE CWA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR W/A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY W/THE WARM AIR OVER THE MELTING SNOW. DECIDED TO STAY W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF THIS TAKING PLACE. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WIND FIELD VEERING TO WSW AND SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF A 40 KT JET AT 4K FT AS THE FRONT TO THE W APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION W/THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM THE SW ALONG THE APCHG FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW TO NE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN GEM POINT TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND NW WHERE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY N & W OF CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA W/INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST HITTING AROUND 50F. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RAINFALL AND IMPACTS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW SHOWING THE LOW WILL PASS JUST OFF SHORE OF THE DOWN EAST COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE CROWN OF MAINE AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY SEEING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE. ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL END BY MID MORNING. IT WONT BE AS MILD FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRIDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST LATER FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z OP MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK. GFS TAKES A NORTHEN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING MONDAY. THE EC TRACKS THE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF QPF. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT WITH ABOUT HALF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND THE OTHERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SUPERBELND WAS SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WE STAYED WITH THEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS SNOW OR RAIN. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. A SHORT BURST OF SNOW WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BGR AND BHB LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE AS A LLVL JET OF 45 KTS IS EXPECTED ABOVE 4K FT. THEREFORE, SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR ON THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY THE AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY KBGR/KBHB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD HIT 30 KTS MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APCH 6-7 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL/QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST. THE WARMUP AND PROJECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH THE PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS THE MOST PRONE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE THE RAINFALL INITIALLY BEFORE RIPENING ALLOWING FOR RUNOFF. THE BIGGER ISSUE W/THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE URBAN PROBLEMS DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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