Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 250525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
125 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of
the region overnight. A cold front approach wednesday and will
cross the area by wednesday evening and will be followed by high
pressure thursday. A warm front will lift north across the region
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM Update: Added patchy drizzle to portions of the forecast
area including eastern Aroostook County down into the Downeast
region. Latest NAM soundings show this potential w/deep llvl
moisture in placed below 925mbs and light s flow. Sfc analysis
showed low pres spinning over the Gulf of Maine w/some light
showers offshore trying to make it back across the coast. Most of
this was drying up before hitting the coast due to the dry air
aloft. Adjusted the dewpoints as they have been rising over the
last 3-4 hrs into the mid and upper 50s. The dewpoints look like
they will level off by daybreak.
Previous Discussion: Low pressure at the surface and aloft near
Cape Cod late this afternoon will track northeast across the Gulf
of Maine tonight. Increasingly moist air will be advected north
across the region tonight resulting in stratus clouds moving north
from the Gulf of Maine overnight. As the upper/surface lows move
northeast, there could even be a few showers from time to time
tonight, mainly across central and downeast areas. Lows tonight
will be in the 50s.
The upper low will exit to our east early Wednesday as the
next upstream short wave and cold front approaches from the west.
Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across northern
areas by Wednesday afternoon and then move into downeast areas by
late in the day. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid to
upper 70s northern and central areas, low to mid 70s interior
downeast, and low to mid 60s along the downeast coast.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front crosses the cwa Wednesday night with scattered
showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm, especially for
northern and central portions of the cwa. The last of the showers
should end by around midnight with at least partial
clearing overnight. Ridging both surface and aloft will build
across the state Thursday making for a dry day with sunshine and
temperatures a bit above average. The ridging breaks down Thursday
night and a warm front will bring the chance of showers back to the
region, especially late evening and overnight. Friday will likely
feature more clouds than sun and it will be mild and moderately
humid with a few showers around at times.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern features a western conus trough with
another trough in the maritimes over the weekend that moves out
into the north Atlantic early next week. Mid to upper level
ridging will be found across the Mid Atlantic into New England.
The air mass will be warm, but flow at times off the relatively
cold ocean waters will keep temperatures cooler along and near the
coast. It will remain unsettled as disturbances move through the
mean flow which will produce clouds and showers at times. The good
news, it appears a cold front drops south across the area Saturday
evening that will likely make Sunday a mostly sunny and dry day
with comfortable humidity levels. There is also a decent chance
that Memorial Day will be dry, with the chance of an afternoon
shower mainly across northern and western portions of the cwa.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect vfr through this evening at kfve/kcar/kpqi/khul
with developing mvfr clgs aft 06z. Expect mvfr conditions early
Wed morning to give way to vfr. Expect developing showers and
tstms Wed afternoon with the passage of a cold front along with
possibility of lcl mvfr conditions.
For kbgr/kbhb expect widespread mvfr through early evening to give
way to widespread lifr/vlifr in low clouds and areas of fog.
Conditions will improve to mvfr kbgr/kbhb by afternoon.
SHORT TERM: mvfr at times in showers Wed evening with conditions
to improve to vfr after midnight and continue through at least
Thursday evening. Mvfr at times later Thursday night into Saturday in
showers with the potential for times of ifr in lower ceilings,
especially at the downeast terminals. vfr conditions expected
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm
in fog through Wednesday morning.
SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels into the weekend. The visibility will
likely be reduced at times in showers and fog.