Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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660 FXUS61 KCAR 041319 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 919 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS FROM THE S TONIGHT AND LIFT N ON THU. THE LOW WILL PASS N OF THE WATERS BY FRI MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 915 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE KATAHDIN REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, ALLOWING ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND THIN A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA PER THE OBS AND LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY. SOME ENHANCEMENT SEEN ON IR MOVING UP FROM THE S IN FORM OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE MT. KATAHDIN REGION EARLIER HAS SINCE WEAKENED W/THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. STILL EXPECTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM. USED THE ECWMF MOS FOR MAXES THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LOW 50S FROM NORTH DOWN INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE WESTERN AREAS AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/CLOUDS FOR ONE AND AN ONSHORE WIND ON THE COAST FOR TWO. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE NAM INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE BELOW 850MBS HANGING TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. THE CLOUD BASE LOOKS LIKE IT LIFTS AND BREAKS SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WESTERN AREAS MIGHT BE HARD PRESSED TO BREAK OUT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OF THE ENE FLOW IN LLVLS. HENCE ALL THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC W/DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS. DECIDED TO KEEP UPPER 40S ACROSS THE W AND NW AREAS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND BROUGHT THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 50S. NE AREAS MIGHT BE THE WARMEST W/HIGH PRES TO N WEDGING DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER AS WELL W/AN E FLOW COMING OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATER. FOR TONIGHT, ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLC LIFTS N. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BOOST THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW AND CONSALL WAS USED FOR POPS. LEANED CLOSE W/THE NAM FOR PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SETUP W/A CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. THIS WILL MEAN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 60%. COORDINATED W/GYX ON THIS AND DECIDED ON STRATIFORM RAIN GIVEN AND ESE FLOW IN THE BLYR. FURTHER N AND W, IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN-FREE W/THAT HIGH TO THE N IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO PRIMARILY DOWNEAST MAINE. QPF TOTALS MAY BE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF INCH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST WITH LESSER TOTALS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE REGION GETS A RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW ON SATURDAY... BUT COULD END UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN MAINE. EXPECT RAINY CONDITIONS WITH A MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVERHEAD. THE WEATHER IMPROVES ON TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK. ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, VFR W/TEMPO MVFR THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/BGR AND KBHB STAYING VFR. MVFR/IFR EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR KBGR AND KBHB WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS STAY VFR. SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IN RAIN AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE AND THEN STALLS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 5 AM THURSDAY. WANTED TO GIVE THE MARINERS A HEADS AS WAVES WILL BUILD W/THE ENE FETCH. WINDS MIGHT TAKE SOME TIME TO PICK UP UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS 4-7 FEET AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI

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