Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 160504
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1204 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
High pressure will build across the region tonight and move east
Monday. Low pressure will track north of the region Monday with a
weak cold front crossing the area Monday night. High pressure
will build back across the region on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update 12:05 am : Have updated wind speed, temperature, and dew
point based on latest observations. No other changes.
High pressure will build across the region tonight. With
diminishing winds and mainly clear skies temperatures should fall
pretty quickly after sunset before high and mid cloud begins to
increase toward morning. Expect lows across the north to range
from 5 to 10 below zero and the single digits above zero to around
10 across central and down east areas.
The high will move east on Monday as weak low pressure tracks east
across Quebec. An approaching upper level disturbance will bring
mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers to northern areas
with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies down east. Afternoon
high temperatures on Monday will range from the low to mid 20s
across the north and low to mid 30s down east.
A weak cold front will cross the area Monday evening. Expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies across the north and mainly clear
to partly cloudy skies downeast. Low temperatures Monday night
will range from around 10 degrees across the far north and mid
teens to around 20 degrees across down east.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models are in relative agreement in that Tue will be fair and
seasonably cold. Aftwrds, models are only in fair agreement
regarding the track of the midwest low as it approaches the E
coast on Wed. The GFS conts to be furthest N with its QPF and
implied snfl, but even it has backed off considerably from ystdy
solution attm. Other models like the ECMWF are further S with the
track of the midwest low with little QPF and snfl even ovr
Downeast areas. We blended the models, resulting in some lgt sn
ovr the SW hlf of our FA and little if any ovr the far NE Wed into
Wed ngt with any sn ending as sn shwrs on Thu as a weak nrn stream
s/wv from QB crosses Nrn ptns of the region. Sn may mix with or
chg to rn alg the Downeast coast Wed aftn and eve due to mild BL
temps due to near sfc maritime air. Temps will gradually become
milder thru Wed and Thu.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Anomalously strong upper lvl ridging ovr Cntrl/Ern Can...Great Lks
and NE U.S. as the TNH teleconnection pattern becomes very
negative will result in fair and dry conditions and continued
gradually mild conditions Fri thru the weekend.
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight with light winds. Mainly VFR on Monday with
brief MVFR possible in scattered snow showers (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI).
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd Tue and Tue ngt
across the TAF sites with conditions lowering to IFR in lgt snfl
by erly Wed morn across Downeast sites, gradually spreading N to
possibly include Nrn TAF sites Wed aftn into Wed ngt. All sites
will improve to at least MVFR clgs with intermittent sn shwrs on
Thu, then improve to VFR on Fri.
NEAR TERM: Winds/Seas will continue to diminish below SCA levels
this evening and remain below SCA levels through Monday morning.
Winds may increase to SCA levels by Monday afternoon.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA conditions are likely with increasing E
winds and seas Wed and Wed ngt...otherwise...winds and seas will
be below SCA criteria. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv
hts ovr These ptns of the fcst.