Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 251952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
352 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Low pressure will approach from the south tonight and
Wednesday. The low will dissipate as it moves away to the east
Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will approach on
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will spread from south to north ahead of a large and moist
but weakening storm system approaching from the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Rain will reach moderate intensity Downeast, but only be
mainly light rain across the north late tonight into Wednesday.
Drier air and upper level ridging across the north will cause
the rain to diminish and taper off over northern areas Wednesday
afternoon. However, rain will continue Downeast, possibly heavy
in some areas over eastern Downeast locations. Northern areas
will remain cloudy with some lingering patchy drizzle possible
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to weaken off the New England coast
Wednesday Night. A cold font will approach from the west during
the day Thursday then move across the region during the day
Friday. Showers are expected through this period as the frontal
system moves through the region.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the northwest during the day
Saturday and crest over the region Sunday. Low pressure will
move into the Great Lakes Monday then continue to move northward
into Canada. A cold front will approach from the west and move
across the State Tuesday. Showers are expected on Wednesday as
low pressure passes to the north.
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to lower to IFR from south to
north tonight, then remain IFR in low clouds and rain on
Wednesday. Northern spots may improve to MVFR late in the day
SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Thursday and
Friday. MVFR conditions are expected Saturday. VFR conditions
are expected Sunday.
NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up for winds gusting up to 25 kt
tonight and Wednesday. Seas will build up to 8 to 10 feet by
late Wednesday in response to the south winds.
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for the sustained winds. For
Waves: A long southerly fetch develops for the Gulf of Maine
southward during the day Wednesday. This fetch is expected to
persist through the day Thursday then weaken with diminishing
winds Friday. Expect waves to build to maximum of 10 to 11
feet/10-11 seconds Wednesday Night. Waves are then expected to
subside Thursday and Friday as winds across the fetch area
diminish but expect the long period southeasterly wave system to
persist into the weekend due to the long fetch distance. Will
use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for wave grids through
Friday then transition to the Wave Watch III.
The highest astronomical tides of the month are expected over
the next several days in conjunction with a new moon Thursday.
Meanwhile near shore wave heights are expected to build to
around 8 feet Wednesday Night. At the current time the
combination of waves and astronomical tide do not appear
sufficient to produce any significant runup and overtopping,
although some minor beach erosion is possible. This is
supported by experimental runup guidance. In addition wind
speeds over the next several days do not appear strong enough to
produce any coastal flooding.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday