Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151542 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1142 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11:40 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO MAKE EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS CLOUDIER AND WESTERN AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE, TO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MIDDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER COOL DRY DAY ON TAP FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. MUCH OF THE NORTH WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD GET A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S, UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, REACHING EASTERN QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... MODELS IN THE SHORT RANGE CONT TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH A S/WV ALF AND OCCLUDED SFC FRONT XPCTD TO CROSS THE FA ON TUE. MOST OF THE QPF WITH THE SHWRS WILL FALL IN THE MORN TO ERLY AFT PD...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN BEFORE THE SHWRS MOVE E INTO THE MARITIMES AND END ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL QPF FOR MOST OF THE REGION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH RANGE...JUSTIFYING CATEGORICAL POPS UP TO 90 PERCENT DURG THE CORE HRS OF THE EVENT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PTLY CLDY LATE IN THE DAY TUE...AND CONT SO THRU TUE NGT AS RIDGE OF WEAK HI PRES FROM THE OH VLY PREVAILS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN WILL THEN APCH FROM QB LATE TUE NGT AND CROSS INTO AT LEAST THE N HLF OF THE REGION WED MORN INTO ERLY AFTN BEFORE BECOMING BRIEFLY STATIONARY. BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY AGREE ON THIS TMG. SOME CLDNSS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT INITIALLY LITTLE IF ANY RNFL. TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL AVG A LITTLE BLO NORMS FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WED NGT...A CLIPPER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ONLY SHOWN BY OPNL GFS MODEL RUNS...IS NOW BEING SHOWN BY THE LATEST ECMWF AND SREF MODEL RUNS...AND IS BEING BETTER SUPPORTED BY PARALLEL 00Z GFS ENS MEMBERS. SO WE HAD TO FCST MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS WED NGT INTO ERLY THU MORN ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA AND ACCOMPANYING HI CHC POPS ACROSS THE THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA. IF THE OPNL 00Z GFS WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...WE WOULD NEED TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL LVLS TO FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE WED NGT WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING EWRD ACROSS CNTRL PTNS OF ME ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF STRONG MID LAYER FRONTOGENESIS...RESULTING IN UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF RNFL. GIVEN THE NARROWNESS AND UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF SIG RNFL... POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT OVR THE FAR N FOR NOW...BUT POPS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONT TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW AND THE UPPER S/WV...STRONGER LLVL COLD ADVCN WILL OCCUR ON THU AS STRONG CAN HI PRES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MOVES EWRD TOWARD THE REGION...RESULTING IN LATE DAY CLRG. THIS SFC HI ACCOMPANIED BY 925MB TEMPS AS LOW AS JUST BLO ZERO DEG C LATE THU NGT SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVRNGT LOW TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR THE FA BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH MUCH OF THE FA POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING A FROST AND FREEZE...SOME NRN VLYS A HARD FREEZE. HI TEMPS FRI SHOULD RECOVER TO A FEW DEG WARMER THAN THU UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT THE SFC HI LINGERING OVR THE FA FRI NGT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NGT...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD OVR THE N DUE TO WARMER LATE NGT 925 MB TEMPS THAN THU NGT. SAT SHOULD BEGIN FAIR...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY AS RETURN SW FLOW SETS UP WITH THE SFC HI MOVE E THRU THE MARITIMES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LONG TERM MODELS AS SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND OF POPS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHWRS FOR MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT INTO SUN AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...BUT THE MOST SIG RNFL MAY STAY N OF THE BORDER THESE TWO PDS...UNTIL A NEW COLD FRONT APCHG FROM CNTRL CAN POTENTIALLY BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD RNFL TO THE REGION SUN NGT. BOTH NGT TM AND DAY TM TEMPS SHOULD BE MILDER THIS WEEKEND WITH LLVL WARM ADVCN. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY IFR OR LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH LOW CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU ERLY TUE AFTN...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY... AND CONTG THRU WED. MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS POSSIBLE FOR NRN TAF SITES LATER WED NGT INTO ERLY THU. NRN TAF SITES THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN THU NGT WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR THRU FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH, FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT THEN BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WV HTS COULD APCH MIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVR OUR OUTER MZS WED THRU THU AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE W AND NW. WV HTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE APCH OF HI PRES TOWARD THE WATERS THU NGT AND FRI. AGAIN WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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