Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011101 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WHILE THE TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, THE DRY SPELL IS COMING TO AN END FOR A WHILE W/NEEDED RAINFALL. THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL/GEM POINT TO OVERRUNNING EVENT W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE, SUCH AS CARIBOU TO MADAWASKA,TO BE DRY MONDAY MORNING AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER ON THIS EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING TOP-DOWN W/THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHILE NORTHERN MAINE IS SHOWN TO BE DRY BELOW 800MBS THROUGH MID MORNING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, DECIDED TO KEEP 30-40% FOR NNE AREAS WHILE FURTHER S AND W, POPS INCREASE TO 60% 8AM. ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/RAIN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z(2PM) AS LOW PRES MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. DECIDED TO BRING THE POPS UP TO 80% BY THEN W/A STEADY SOAKING RAIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO MONDAY EVENING AND THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE 0.50-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CWA W/THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST MAINE. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 925MBS TEMPS AOB OC ACROSS THE N AND W INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED W/WHAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED COULD LEAD TO SOME WET SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE GFS INDICATED A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE ST. JOHN AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM IS CLOSE TO THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THE BLYR WINDS WILL BE ESE ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DECIDED TO MENTION SNOW MIXING IN W/THE RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION. GIVEN THIS, DECIDED TO CUT MONDAY`S DAYTIME TEMPS BACK BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES LEADING A DAMP AND COLD DAY W/READINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. THE RAIN WILL END LATER MONDAY W/THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION W/TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND AND A NNW WIND TAKING HOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS W/A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW AREAS. WEAK HIGH PRES TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SOME SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE CROWN OF MAINE AS SOME CLOUDS COULD KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A MILDER DAY W/SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRES HANGS ON. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS OF 60 DEGREES OF HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON W/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM S TO N AS LOW PRES MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLC. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL PLUS A GOOD DEAL OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. AT ANY RATE, THIS WOULD MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MILDER W/THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD RUN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES BY THE TIME IT ENDS LATER THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAST MOVER. DRIER AND MILDER FOR FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES FOR THE WEEKEND W/THE ECMWF AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP W/LOW PRES CLOSING TO OUR S W/A SPLIT UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN DRIER PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER N WHICH MEAN UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER. ATTM, LEANED W/A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE 30-40% POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR GOING TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY W/RAIN AND PERHAPS A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW FOR KFVE. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DEAL W/IFR GOING TO MVFR. VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY NIGHT W/PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN DEVELOPING RAIN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS HIT 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF BELOW 20 KTS BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS HOWEVER LOOK TO STAY UP AROUND 6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY W/WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN AREAS LATE. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS...WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST. ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...NORCROSS/HEWITT MARINE...NORCROSS/HEWITT FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS

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