Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271958 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 358 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 1500-2000J SB CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING CAN CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE DOWN EAST COAST. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE. TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG, DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND 00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z. AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES. RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS. EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI, MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING, WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR

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