Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 122005 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 405 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary will bring some showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight with some fog. A cold front will cross the region Sunday with another round of showers and thunderstorms, followed by high pressure on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered thunderstorms overnight with another round expected for Sunday. Showers and tstms setting up over w and nw areas as s/wv lifts up across the region from the NYS region. Some lighter showers were seen on radar lifting up across the region from the s. The latest SPC meso analysis showed best CAPE and lapse rates residing across the w and nw into early evening. Some of the stronger storms across the wnw could contain strong wind gusts and hail. First batch of activity is shown by the latest HRRR and RAP to diminish after 8 pm. Some fog is expected to set up later in the evening into the overnight hrs. Decision was to hit the downeast and western areas hardest w/the fog and went patchy fog elsewhere. A second round of activity is slated to develop across the region overnight into early Sunday morning as the cold front apchs from Canada. There appears to be a pre-frontal boundary that moves across the region which could allow for some convection to fire back up well after midnight into the break hrs. The RAP and GFS show elevated instability as far e as BGR and BHB into Sunday morning. The NAM is weaker as is the HRRR. There does look to be elevated CAPE of 600-800 joules w/0-6km shear apchg 30 kts. So, if storms do fire, some could have some gusty winds. Decided to carry tstms into the Downeast, but w/stable layer in place, confidence is low to have enhanced wording. The evening crew can assess this further. For Sunday, SPC has placed the entire region in a Marginal Risk for a few tstms to become severe. This will be a challenge as there could some action in the morning w/the pre-frontal boundaryand then the short range guidance shows a second round across northern areas by late morning into the early afternoon. Instability parameters such CAPE(700-1000 joules) and 0-6KM shear of 30 kts favor organized potential. Lapse rates do look as though they steepen by later morning especially in the mid levels to allow for updrafts. Given this, added the mention of strong wind gusts and hail to the forecast. Stayed close to the midnight crew`s assessment of 70s w/the warmest temps across the central and downeast areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Expect clearing skies Sunday night behind the departing cold front and mainly sunny skies on Monday. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Monday will range from the mid to upper 70s north and upper 70s to near 80 central and down east. Expect fair weather Monday night in advance of an approaching cold front. Lows Monday night will range from the mid to upper 50s across the region. Tuesday will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front begins to cross the region. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 70s to near 80, except cooler along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A few showers may linger into Tuesday evening, followed by partial clearing Tuesday night. A secondary front/trof will cross the region on Wednesday. This feature combined with a pool of cold air aloft, will once again result in the chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Thursday and Friday are looking like a mainly dry days, as latest model runs are suggesting the late week system may stay off to our south, as confluent flow aloft allows for more in the way of high pressure to build build in from the north. The dry weather may hold into the beginning of next weekend if the system remains to our south. Daytime high temperatures through the long term are expected to be at, or even a bit below normal for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR for BHB this evening looks like it will lift to MVFR/VFR. The rest of the terminals will see VFR and MVFR into the evening. It does look like all terminals will be seeing conditions drop to IFR w/the potential for LIFR from HUL down to KBGR and KBHB. Fog will be a nuisance overnight w/the threat for a tstm. IFR/LIFR Sunday morning gradually improving to MVFR by later morning w/another round of tstms. Looking for conditions to go to VFR by later Sunday afternoon into evening. SHORT TERM: Generally VFR through the period, except in any afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, which may result in briefly lower conditions. Could also see the potential of lower clouds and stratus making their way into the vicinity of the Bar Harbor airport later Monday night into Tuesday morning with local IFR conditions possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No headlines. The biggest issues will be the fog tonight into early Sunday which could hamper navigation. Tstms are a threat as well. SSW winds are expected to increase ahead of the cold front on Sunday to 10-15 kts. This will allow seas to build some but they will remain below 5 ft. Decided to add some gusts to 20 kts for the outer zones. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are generally expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the period.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hewitt/Duda Marine...Hewitt/Duda

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