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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141914
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC SATURDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LATEST RADAR REF SHOWS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE CNVCTV ACTIVITY OVR NE
ME AT THE MOMENT...BUT EVEN SO...TOPS HAVE GENERALLY NOT EXCEEDED
25 KFT FOR THE MOST PART. FCST SBCAPES INTO ERLY EVE WILL BE IN
THE 300 TO 600 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR GENERAL THUNDER...WITH
ISOLD SVR TSTMS SLIMLY POSSIBLE. THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY NOW
SLIDING S (WITH FORWARD CORFIDI PROPAGATION OF 15 KT OR SO) TOWARD
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO MID/HI CLD CVR
HANGING ON OVR THIS AND DOWNEAST AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS OF THE N NOT BEING
RAN OVR BY CURRENT CNVCTN UNTIL ERLY EVE...AFTERWHICH THE LOSS OF
HTG AND THE BUCKLING OF WEAK LLVL THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE N WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE EVE.

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LVL S/WV CROSSING THE FA FROM QB...LLVL COOL
ADVCN WILL BRING DRIER SFC DWPTS AND CLRG TO THE REGION LATE TNGT
AND ERLY SAT MORN. SAT WILL BEGIN MCLR...BUT ANOTHER S/WV ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG BUT TIGHT MID LVL VORTEX FROM HUDSON BAY TRACKING
ESE N OF THE FA INTO THE CAN MARITIMES WILL BRING SOME CLDNSS TO
THE FA BY AFTN AND PERHAPS ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE INTO NW PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT EVE. NW WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 25 TO 30 MPH MIDDAY AND AFTN
SAT DUE TO A STRONGER PRES GRAD AT THE SFC AND WINDS ALF.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING
IN MUCH DRIER AIR. AS SUCH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, RAIN RETURNS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, IT RETURNS MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT, IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR COME MONDAY. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (AWAY FROM THE
COAST) AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE FRONT`S POSITION (QUEBEC VS MAINE), SO HAVE
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE) FOR CONSISTENCY. ALSO OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH LOCATION ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING. THE
00/06Z GFS BRINGS A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE LARGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW BUT IS A BIT SLOWER WITH TIMING. EITHER SCENARIO WOULD
BRING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z GFS STILL HAS SAME TIMING WITH
INTIAL LOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z CMC DOES INTRODUCE THE
SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY BUT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
CONDITIONS DO IMPROVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STAYING NEAR
NORMAL.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL SITES THRU SAT...XCPT BRIEFLY MVFR IN HVY
RNFL LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IN ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AT KBHB AND KBGR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED ATTM. THE ONLY CONCERN IS SWELL
COMING BACK BACK AROUND THE W END OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SAT AS THE
DEPARTING LOW MOVES INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. USED WW3 WITH SWAN NAM
SMOOTHED NEAR THE COASTLINE TO REDUCE COASTLINE WV HTS TO AROUND
1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM: A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER TO COME LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS