Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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118 FXUS61 KCAR 062011 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 311 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will crest over the region this evening. A weak occluded front will cross the area Wednesday. Low pressure will track to our northwest on Thursday then a cold front will cross the area Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pres will briefly ridge across the region overnight into early Wednesday. The ridge will slide e on Wednesday followed by an approaching weak frontal system that will bring some snow showers or brief period of light snow. Some weak waa coupled w/partial clearing overnight with allow for some freezing fog into Wednesday morning. The fog will be most prevalent across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where the deepest snowpack resides. Overnight temps will be a challenge as stated by the midnight crew especially in low lying areas. Light winds, clearing and deep snowpack across the n will allow temps to drop overnight w/some site going below 0F. Appears to be a good setup w/weak waa above above 1000 ft and cold air trapped beneath the blyr. That weak frontal system mentioned above is forecast to lift across the region during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing appears to be across the western and sw portions of the CWA. There is some weak difluence aloft w/some weak waa in the llvls to set off around of snow showers or light snow. Not much in the way of QPF(<0.10") and w/a ratio of 12-14:1 will yield any snow accumulations of an inch at best. This again will be across the w and sw areas. Decided on a blend of the short range guidance to go w/40% pops attm. These percentages might need to be boosted as we close in on the event. It will be a milder day for Wednesday w/2-3 degrees warmer than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Wednesday night into Thursday will remain mostly cloudy with some spotty snow showers around as a large but weak area of low pressure tracks to our northwest. A small wave of energy in the fast moving jet stream will brush south of the state on Thursday. This may enhance snow shower activity a bit during the afternoon, especially Downeast, but any accumulation should be light. Snow showers may pick up over the north later in the day as a cold front begins to approach. The low in Canada will track across Quebec Thursday night shifting our winds from southwesterly to westerly and bringing clouds and some scattered snow showers to the region. Lapse rates are steep in the low levels and some locally heavier snow showers or snow squalls are possible Thursday night as the cold front pushes across and colder air presses in. Colder air will continue to push across the region on gusty west northwesterly winds on Friday. Some spotty snow showers will be around. There is a chance for a heavier snow squall, especially across northwestern and central areas, as the colder air overspreads the region. A band of snow showers may develop along the line of convergence downstream from the Laurentians, into the northwest and central part of our area, on Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Saturday will be cloudy to partly sunny and bitter cold as high pressure approaches from the west and we remain in a very cold northwesterly flow. Highs will be around 5 degrees colder than mid- winter norms. High pressure will crest over our area on Sunday bringing sunshine Downeast and sun mixed with patchy low clouds across the north. Our focus for early next week turns to a wave of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night, possibly spreading snow across our area late Sunday night into Monday. Snow may mix with or change to rain over coastal Downeast areas late Sunday night into Monday. Dry weather should return for Tuesday although clouds may linger, especially across the north.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs into the early evening w/VFR especially for KBGR and KBHB. Northern areas will hang on to MVFR cigs for a time this evening and then go VFR briefly. Conditions across the northern TAF sites are expected to drop back to MVFR and even a period for IFR by early Wed morning w/FZFG. MVFR conditions expected for the northern TAF sites through the day on Wednesday. VFR for KBGR and KBHB starting out for Wednesday will drop to MVFR near or after 18z. The wx element will be snow showers/light snow. SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday night followed by mainly MVFR conditions in mid and low clouds on Thursday. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Downeast Thursday night into Friday with MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions in lower clouds and snow showers over the north. VFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north at times.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds of 10-15 kts to drop back to 5-10 kts tonight as the high moves over the waters. Seas of 2-3 ft will drop back to 1-2 ft overnight. Winds are expected to hold at 5 to 10 kts into Wednesday. Seas are expected to hold at 1-2 ft. SHORT TERM: A SCA or gale will likely be needed late Thursday night into Friday night for gusty northwesterly winds. Winds should diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds over.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...Hewitt/Bloomer

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