Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220431 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1231 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move into southern Maine Saturday morning. The low will lift to the north into Quebec later Saturday night and usher in a much cooler air mass Sunday through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 AM update...The steady band of heavier rain remains just to our west this morning. There has been embedded lightning with this activity, and while it is waning, can`t rule out a few lightning strikes across our western zones. Have added isolated thunderstorms to the forecast accordingly. We are starting to see some heavier showers move onto the Downeast coast ATTM, and expect this will fill in and lift northward through the early morning hours. Temperatures will hold steady or even rise through the next few hours. The going forecast has this covered for the most part, so most changes were relatively minor. Previous discussion...The warm front continues to make very slow progress northward this afternoon with mild maritime air causing widespread light rain and drizzle. Fog will continue to be an issue this afternoon into early Saturday morning with this saturated air under a slowly lowering frontal inversion. Meanwhile, low pressure that was in Pennsylvania this morning is currently redeveloping off coastal New Jersey as an upper trough in the western Great Lakes region continues to dig...take on a negative tilt...and eventually cut off in New York by Saturday morning. The surface low off the New Jersey coast will quickly deepen in response to these upper level dynamics and draw in rich tropical moisture from the remnants of a storm moving north from the vicinity of Bermuda. This moisture with associated high PWs and deep warm layer will produce some heavy rain tonight that will propagate northward towards northern Aroostook by daybreak Saturday. Embedded thunderstorms are possible towards the coast later this evening and have specified isolated Tstorms later tonight into early Saturday morning. All in all, most areas stand a good chance of receiving over an inch of needed rain...and some areas could see 1.5 to 2 inches where heavier showers/thundershowers occur. Most of heavy rain will end early Saturday morning, but rain will remain in the forecast through Saturday as the low pressure moves over western Maine and into Quebec by later Saturday. Light rain and drizzle will alternate with heavier showers through the day. The warmer air mass will remain in place one more day with highs reaching the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Rain transitioning to showers and turning colder by Sunday evening. Low pres is forecast to lift through western Maine by Saturday evening w/another round of rain lifting across the region. As has been advertised previously, PWATS well above 1.5 inches and a deep southerly flow will transport tropical moisture northward. There could be periods of heavy rain Saturday night w/the slug of moisture. South winds will shift to the sw and increase to 20-30 mph with some higher gusts across the eastern sections of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low pres will then lift into Quebec on Sunday w/colder air moving in as winds turn to the west. The ECMWF is further e w/the position of the low which would lead to a slower timing of the caa, while the GFS and the NAM are further w. Decided on a blend positioning the low through central maine and then into Quebec. Steady rain will transition to showers by Sunday afternoon. Additional rainfall of up to 0.25 inches are possible. It will be windy on Sunday w/temps falling off by late afternoon. Much colder Sunday night into Monday w/continued caa. Wraparound moisture w/an upper level disturbance will lead to showers. Snow showers are possible back across w and nw areas due to cold air draining down through the column. No accumulation is expected. Monday to remain unsettled and cold w/rain showers and possible snow showers. Daytime temps generally in the 40s w/higher terrain in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Remaining cold and unsettled into Wednesday. Stacked low pres to residing over the Gulf of the St. Lawrence to migrate across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will mean on and off showers and even snow showers. Any snow accumulation will be light and mainly across the higher elevations. High pres to build in across the area Thursday into Friday but still chilly. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR and LIFR restrictions expected to continue this evening and into the morning hours. Expect heavy rain to move into BHB after 05z and remainder of terminals after 09z. LLWS looks less likely and have not included in forecasts. SHORT TERM: IFR into Saturday night w/periods of rain and gusty winds. Conditions improving to MVFR for KBGR and KBHB on Sunday while the northern terminals stay in IFR. Improvement for KBGR and KBHB to VFR by Sunday w/MVFR for the north. VFR continuing for KBGR and KBHB for Sunday night into Monday while northern sites stay at MVFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have extended the SCA through Saturday. Winds will pick up tonight in advance of low pressure moving north into the Gulf of Maine. Expect steady state winds to reach 25 to 30 knots for several hours this evening. Winds will then decrease after midnight, but seas will continue increasing to as much as 9 to 10 feet by daybreak. Seas will remain above SCA criteria all of Saturday. SHORT TERM: Looks like Gale Force winds possible for Saturday night into Sunday. Decided on a Gale Watch Saturday night through Sunday for 25-35 kts mainly out over the outer zones. This was collaborated w/GYX. Seas will run 11-13 ft into Saturday evening and then start to fall back on Sunday as the winds turn to a wsw direction. Attm, not expecting any major issues for overwash along the coast. Some minor splashover is possible at the time of high tide Saturday afternoon into early evening. Winds and seas will drop off Sunday night into Monday w/the direction becoming more westerly and seas falling back to 5-6 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... Not expecting any flooding issues w/the rainfall. Some nuisance concerns especially w/culverts plugged from leaves and ponding of water. Area streams and rivers will show some rises but rainfall is needed due to very low stream levels. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for ANZ050- 051.
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