Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131331 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 931 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will build in behind the front tonight through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM: Cold front currently making its way into Northwest portions of the forecast area. Current radar imagery is showing a band of showers moving across northwest Maine in association with the approaching front. Even a few lightning strikes showing up to the west of Clayton Lake at this hour. Expect the cold front to continue to move across the northern portions of the forecast area this morning and off the down east coast by late afternoon. Based on the latest meso guidance and analysis, it appears that the threat for any severe thunderstorms is minimal. In fact, latest day one outlook from SPC has now downgraded our area from marginal to general thunderstorms. It appears that the best chances for any stronger storms will be across across portions of down east Maine, including Northern Hancock and Washington Counties, which will see some surface based heating prior to the frontal passage. Will include mention of gusty winds and small hail there. Otherwise, will just mention isolated thunder elsewhere. Have updated pops and thunderstorm chances today, as well as sky conditions. High temperature forecast still looks on track so no adjustments made to temperatures on this update. The hazardous weather outlook has also been updated to reflect current thinking with regard to any stronger storms. Weak high pressure will move across the region tonight with clearing skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sheared vort max in cyclonic flow around the James Bay upr low wl bring an increase in clds to nrn zones Mon aftn. May see a few hrs of isold showers acrs the far nw in the aftn with fair wx elsewhere. Temps wl climb abv normal into the lwr 80s for interior Downeast and u70s acrs the north with H8 temps warmer than Sun. Frontal bndry sitting north of CWA acrs Quebec/Ontario wl begin to drop south Tue mrng. Pop chcs increase aft 12z Tue and with diurnal htg lkly resulting in CAPES fm 500-1000 J/kg in the aftn wl continue mention of thunder for Tue. Temps wl be a few degrees cooler than Mon due to cld cvr and showers expected. Moisture wl increase ahead of front, leading to patchy fog acrs the area and areas of fog for Downeast ovrngt. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Cdfnt wl pass thru the state Tue night lvg cyclonic flow in its wake before hipres builds in on Wed night. Med range guidance has come into slightly better agreement with an overall fair day on Thur. Thu night discrepancies exist btwn GFS/CMC vs EC with latest EC bringing sfc low fm the Great Lks into the Gulf of Maine while GFS/CMC 12-18 hrs slower with sfc low progression. This is lkly due to EC weakening the ridge while GFS and CMC maintain it`s strength. GFS ensemble members are similar to operational mean with showers lkly not mvg in until closer to 12z Fri. Hipres may keep most of the showers confined to Downeast next weekend while St. John Vly wl stay mainly dry thru the end of the long term pd. Temps wl continue to run slightly blo normal for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions at mid morning will give way to mainly VFR outside of any isolated heavier showers or thunderstorms through mid afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR on Monday will give way to IFR vsbys restrictions late Mon night. Cold front will approach Tue with showers and tstms possibly affecting terminals north of BGR with localized MVFR conditions. May see IFR restrictions once again in fog Wed morning depending on when fropa occurs.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the winds. For waves: A southerly fetch area is currently developing to the south of the Gulf of Maine. Longer period swell (3-4 feet/8-9 seconds) from this fetch will be the primary wave system later today and tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize waves. Will reduce the wave heights by 1 foot to adjust high wave model bias resulting from cold sea surface temperatures suppressing boundary layer winds. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas will remain blo SCA levels thru the middle part of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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