Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221443 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build toward the region today and crest over Maine late tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the area Friday night. High pressure will move back into the area Saturday and Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 10:40 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Strong high pressure across the northern Great lakes and southern Quebec will build east. The center of the high will be right over northern Maine late tonight. A weak wave of low pressure will form along the cold front that pushed off the Downeast coast yesterday evening. Precipitation will remain to our south, but some high and mid level clouds are likely across the Downeast region this afternoon into this evening before the sky clears. Across the far north, nothing more than a bit of cirrus expected this afternoon. Temperatures today will be seasonably cold ranging from the low to mid 20s in far northern Maine to the low to mid 30s toward the coast. A great set-up tonight for radiational cooling as the high center moves directly overnight. The combination of a clear sky, light/calm wind will allow lows to drop below zero in the northern valleys, and from 5 to 15 degrees Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure slides east of the forecast area Friday. After a sunny and cold start to the day, warm advection clouds will begin to increase by afternoon. Light snow associated with an advancing short wave and weak overunning will begin to spread in from the west by later Friday afternoon. Light snow is expected across much of the area Friday evening, however, there may be enough low level warming for snow to actually end as a bit of light rain or drizzle across down east areas. Snow accumulations with this system will be light, generally 1 to 3 inches, with the lesser amounts across the down east. Saturday is expected to be a mainly cloudy day across the north with a slight chance of a stray snow shower, with partly to mostly sunny skies expected central and down east. High temperatures both Friday and Saturday will be above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds to our north Saturday night with mainly clear skies and light winds expected. This may allow for some radiational cooling, especially across the far north nearer the center of the high. Sunday morning will feature sunshine followed by increasing clouds in advance of an approaching frontal system from the west. Snow associated with this system will begin to overspread the region during Sunday afternoon and continue into Sunday evening. Across down east areas, precipitation may even change over to all rain before precipitation diminishes after after midnight Sunday. At this time, this system appears to be a progressive system with only light snow amounts. Looking ahead to the early to middle part of next week, no significant systems are slated to affect the region with temperatures expected to be above normal or this time of year. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours with the wind diminishing today as high pressure builds toward the region. SHORT TERM: High pressure will slide east of the region on Friday with light overrunning snow developing from west to east Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday evening. High pressure builds back in Saturday through early Sunday. Another system will approach from the west Sunday afternoon and then move east Sunday night. High pressure builds back in on Monday. .Outlook Friday through Monday... Fri...VFR to start then IFR in developing light snow. Sat...VFR. Sun...VFR early then IFR afternoon in developing snow north and rain/snow down east. Mon...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind will diminish today and will become light tonight as high pressure builds over the waters. The wind remains a bit gusty through early this morning so a small craft advisory will remain in effect for wind gusts to 25 knots until 12z/7am EST. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could approach SCA levels Friday night and then persist into early next week. && .CLIMATE... The high yesterday at Caribou, Maine of 51F was a record for 2/21. It broke the previous record of 50F, set in 1994. It tied with January 12th as the warmest temperature so far this meteorological winter. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone

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