Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180950 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 550 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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545 AM UPDATE: SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CONCERNS THIS TERM ARE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT AND POSSIBLE SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ICE WAS MOVING DOWN THE ST. JOHN RIVER THROUGH MADAWASKA INTO VAN BUREN. THE RIVER APPEARS TO WIDE OPEN NORTH OF MADAWASKA ALL THE WAY THROUGH FORT KENT BACK TO ST. FRANCIS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP AND AUTHORITIES ARE MONITORING THE SITUATION. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THE REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BY LATER TODAY HITTING UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S. DECIDED TO STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING ATTM W/THIS SETUP. WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER 10 MPH WHICH WILL AID IN SOME MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. MOD SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE BLYR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND RIGHT NEAR THE MAINE-CANADIAN BORDER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL JETLET OF 30 KTS STREAMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10" AND USING A 10-12:1 RATIO THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 AND MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW 32F ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF THE STATE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A WARM SPRING DAY ON MONDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MID WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND DEEPER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WET WITH HEAVIER QPF TOTALS WITH THE GFS. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH RIVER LEVELS STILL HIGH AFTER THE ICE BREAK UP. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LOOKS LIKE VFR INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR MVFR FOR KFVE AFTER 06Z. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/ && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. A SWELL CONTINUES ATTM AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD GRADUALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL 10-15 KTS AT BEST INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY...
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545 AM UPDATE: COORDINATED WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND AROOSTOOK EMA AND DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH AS RIVER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER HAS HIT RECORD FLOOD STAGE W/THE LATEST READING OF 16.10 FT AND NOW CRESTED. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE RIGHT INTO THE EASTER WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE RECEDING W/CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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