Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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274 FXUS61 KCAR 211313 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 813 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the region this morning. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday and will be followed by high pressure on Thursday. A series of cold fronts will cross the area Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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8 AM Update...Skies are clearing behind the weak warm frontal passage Downeast so decreased clouds there a bit. Also lowered temps a couple degrees through mid morning. Previous discussion... A surface ridge axis across Maine early this morning will shift east today with low pressure in Ontario to pass south of James Bay early this afternoon and into far northern Quebec tonight. A warm front will lift north across the region this morning ushering a much milder air mass into the area. The 850H temperature on the 00z KCAR sounding was -17.9C, and the models have the 850H surging to around 0C at KCAR this afternoon. There will be a deck of mid level clouds that will accompany the warm front, but they should clear out of the Downeast Region by late morning, and across northern Maine by early this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will be 10 to 15 degrees (F) warmer than Monday, and should range from the mid 30s in the Saint John Valley and from 45 to 50 Downeast. Tonight a cold front will advance toward the region, and is expected to be in the Saint Lawrence River Valley of Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. At the same time an area of low pressure is expected to lift north off the North Carolina coast by 12Z Wed. The precipitation with the southern branch low will hold off until after 12Z, and most of the precipitation with the incoming front should hold off too, but a rain or snow shower could work into far Northwest Maine toward morning. The PoPs with the southern branch low were slowed by a few hours with this forecast package. Temperatures will likely drop off some during the evening, and slowly rise overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Next system for Wednesday brings a shot of precipitation for Eastern Maine. System doesn`t look terribly well organized. Heaviest precip comes as rain over Downeast Maine, while Northern Maine is more moisture-starved with most of the precip coming with the cold front and generally being less than a quarter inch. For precip type, southern areas will see only rain, while over the north it could start as a mix, go over to rain midday through early afternoon Wed, then back to a mix late Wednesday before ending. Some spots could pick up an inch or two of snow, mainly over higher terrain, but doesn`t look like a big deal. Colder, drier air moves back in Wednesday night into Thursday, with Thursday`s daytime temps staying below freezing over Northern Maine and being around 40 toward the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak upper level trough Thursday night into Friday could bring a touch of snow over the north. Any surface cold frontal feature should fizzle as it moves into Maine, so don`t expect much temperature change, with Friday being another cooler than average day like Thursday. A bit warmer Saturday ahead of a fairly potent upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes. The trough moves over New England Sunday into Monday with temperatures returning to below average. There will be a chance of precipitation Sunday into Monday, although it appears that any strong systems will remain to our east. Will have to keep an eye out for Sunday though, as the upper trough will still be just off to our west and if it approaches a bit slower than models currently have, a strong low which many models currently track north through the Canadian Maritimes could impact our area instead. Although November has been cooler than average, it has been snow-starved. This is bound to change eventually. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight. LLWS possible tonight with a southwest wind of 35 to 40 knots at 2K ft agl. SHORT TERM: MVFR and possible IFR during the day Wednesday with areas of precipitation and low clouds. Becoming VFR most areas Wednesday night except perhaps MVFR ceilings persisting over the north. Generally VFR Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A brief lull in the wind expected this morning, but it picks up again this afternoon in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Will extend the small craft advisory for the coastal waters through tonight, and will start a small craft advisory for the intra-coastal waters this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Conditions just below small craft on Wednesday, likely picking back up to small craft levels Wednesday night behind a cold front. Winds generally below small craft levels Thursday into Friday, although seas will be hovering around 5 feet (small craft levels) away from the immediate coast. && .CLIMATE... So far only 0.8" of snow has been observed at Caribou this November. November 1960 holds the honors for the least snowy November at Caribou with 1.5" of snow. Temperatures so far this month are averaging 1.5F below average at Caribou, and 1.3F below average at Bangor. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...CB/Foisy Marine...CB/Foisy Climate...CB

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