Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140952 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 552 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY TODAY AS MUCH WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. INITIALLY VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT. THE SUNSHINE WILL WARM THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A BREEZY AND WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA. THE WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE COLDER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE APPALACHIANS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY...APPROACHING WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO AN INCREASED ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT DUE TO RISING RIVER LEVELS FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THOUGH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN INCREASE SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY...LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD REACH GALE LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN OVERNIGHT ADDED WATER TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVER BASINS. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISES BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A WARM MOIST WIND TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE MELTING CAUSING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO RISE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER

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