-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 061118
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN
STALL AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 0600L: SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NWRN AREAS WHILE INCRSG IN
CVRG CENTRAL AND S AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTS TO PRESS S AND EWRD
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL VRY MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT W/ TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER 40S NE AND E. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND HRLY TEMPS
TO BRING IN LINE W/ CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDS...

ORIG DISC: STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED OUR FA AND WILL CONT TO
PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE ERLY AM EXITING FAR SERN AREAS
BY 12Z. WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRES ALONG THIS FRONT ENHANCING
PRECIP ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THIS FRONT BACK ACROSS NYS AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND AND THIS WILL ALL SHIFT EWRD W/ THE FRONT INTO THE
ERLY AM HRS. ATTM APPEARS BEST PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
SRN AREAS FOR A 6-8 HR PD THRU ABOUT MID AM BEFORE THIS PRECIP
EXITS TO THE E.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVR THE SRN GULF OF MAINE
LATE TODAY W/ ANOTHER SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO STREAK EWRD
ALONG THIS FRONT LATER TNGT INTO ERLY SAT W/ ANOTHER SHIELD OF
PRECIP TO BRUSH OUR SRN AREAS. ATTM WILL JUST CARRY CHC POPS OUR
FAR SRN AREAS AS APPEARS BEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE
AREA. CRITICAL THICKNESS AND BNDRY TEMPS SUPPORT THIS PRECIP
FALLING AS SOME LGT SNOW OR SLEET BUT ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE
LGT SIDE...

AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN - INITIALLY ARRIVING ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N THIS AM AND
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THRU TNGT. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NW W/ THESE HIGHS ERLY IN
THE DAY TO THE MID 40S FAR SE. FOR TNGT...EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS FAR NW TO THE UPPER 20S S...
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ANY SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. NORTHERN AREAS,
HOWEVER, WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A BRISK WEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE EAST CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. WHILE SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUN AND A
BIT LESS WIND THAN SATURDAY, CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION WILL GIVE
TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, REACHING EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF CAPE
COD LATE MONDAY AND TREK INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY TUESDAY. AS SUCH,
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THEN TAPER OFF TO
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS ALL SNOW,
BUT THOSE AREAS FROM BANGOR SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR ACROSS ALL OUR TAF SITES ATTM AND THIS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL FROPA WHICH IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS
OUR SITES BTWN 10-14Z. AFTER FROPA...CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
TO VFR W/ MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU TNGT. ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS OUR SRN TAF SITES WHERE A SFC WAVE OF
LOW PRES PASSING S OF THE AREA LATER TNGT COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR
TO IFR CONDS LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SAT IN SOME LGT RAIN/SNOW...

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 15Z-22Z OR SO. WIDESPREAD
IFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS SNOW TO THE NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 12Z TUESDAY, BUT CEILINGS
WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT; MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDS W/ ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS
ATTM W/ WAVE HGTS BTWN 5-6 FT... CURRENT SCA HEADLINES THRU 12 AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT WNDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: COLD AIR RUSHING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS