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523
FXUS61 KCAR 230915
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
515 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift across the region today, followed by a
cold front tonight into Saturday. Another cold front will begin
to cross the region later Sunday night.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The big story today will be a warm front separating the cool and
dry air mass that had been in place over the last two days from
a very warm and moist air mass that will push into the forecast
area briefly tonight. This boundary features deep tropical
moisture originating from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy.
At this time, the south edge of the warm front features a
nearly continuous line of thunderstorm activity from Iowa to
upstate New York. These storms will ride northeastward into the
forecast area later this morning well north of the warm frontal
boundary and will tend to weaken as they cross the state into a
more stable environment. These initial showers are not likely to
produce any thunder. Later in the afternoon as the warm frontal
boundary creeps northward...elevated instability in the
forecast area will increase. Surface-based instability is not
particularly likely today with the possible exception of
southwest Piscataquis County. Any surface-based convection in
that location late this afternoon could be worrisome given the
helicity and low LCLs. In general, cloud cover and a developing
frontal inversion/low clouds ahead of the warm front will
inhibit development of storms. However, storms will develop to
the southwest of the forecast area and advect along the warm
frontal boundary into the area later this afternoon and through
the night. The bulk of the activity will be north of a line from
Dover-Foxcroft to Houlton and slowly lift northward during the
evening. The problem is that PWATs will approach 2 inches with a
deep warm cloud layer and a decent LLJ. With this moisture and
efficient rainfall processes, training cells could put down a
lot of rain and heighten urban and small stream flooding
concerns this evening. The warm front looks like it will be
somewhat stationary in northern zones through the night until
low pressure drifts across the area late tonight and brings a
cold front southward. Further south along the coast, heavy rains
are not much of a worry, but fog will thicken tonight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 60s with dew points also in the mid
60s.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front will exit Downeast areas early Saturday with an
upper level disturbance crossing the region during the
afternoon. A chance of showers will occur across the region
Saturday along with a mostly cloudy morning and mostly/partly
cloudy afternoon. Showers are possible early Saturday night
across northern areas. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are
expected Saturday night. A trof crosses the region Sunday with
partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers. Low pressure
crossing northern Maine Sunday night will draw a cold front
toward northern portions of the forecast area late. Showers are
possible across the region Sunday night, with the better
chances across northern areas. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy
skies north with partly/mostly cloudy skies across the
remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at
slightly above normal levels Saturday, with near normal level
temperatures Sunday.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Unsettled conditions are expected across the region Monday
through Thursday. The cold front will stall across the region
Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A series of
disturbances will lift across the region Tuesday into Wednesday
in advance of an upper level trof which will then cross the
region later Wednesday into Thursday. The disturbances and
upper trof will produce occasional showers Tuesday into Thursday
along with generally partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be
at near normal levels Monday through Thursday.
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.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this morning will deteriorate this
afternoon...becoming IFR due to cigs north of HUL and along the
coast towards BHB. The low cigs will reach BGR in the evening.
Embedded thunderstorms to FL350 along a warm front will be a
significant threat later this afternoon and evening. The worst
may be towards GNR and MLT later this afternoon and spread
northward and eastward in the evening. The thunderstorm coverage
will probably be fairly widespread by early this evening along
the south edge of the warm front. These storms will support
hail, but strong winds are less likely due to the stable layer
and low cigs near the surface.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the region
early Saturday. Generally expect VFR conditions later Saturday
into Sunday. Variable conditions, generally ranging from VFR to
IFR, are expected across the region Sunday night into early
Monday. Variable conditions are then expected with thunderstorms
Monday afternoon. Generally expect VFR conditions Monday night
into Tuesday, though occasional MVFR conditions will remain
possible.
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.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Although downward adjustments were made to guidance
due to very stable near-surface conditions, a tight pressure
gradient may yield a few gusts near 25 kts tonight and some seas
reaching over 5 ft. This will be just for the outer waters and
will leave the SCA in place. Fog will develop this morning and
thicken later today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are possible
Saturday. Conditions are then expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Saturday night into Sunday night. Visibilities
will be reduced in showers and fog Saturday into early Saturday
night. Showers are then possible again later Sunday into Sunday
night.
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.HYDROLOGY...
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There is potential for very heavy downpours later this afternoon
and tonight along a slow moving warm frontal boundary. The
highest risk at this time will be mostly north of a line from
Dover-Foxcroft towards Houlton. Urban and small stream flooding
are the risks as several inches of rain could fall within a very
short duration.
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.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross
Hydrology...MCW