-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 081749
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1245L: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHERN ZONES HAVE HAD THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.

PREV DISC:  WEAK LOW PRES NW OF THE AREA ATTM W/ AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT XTNDG SWWRD ACROSS THE ERN GRT LAKES... CLDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN 1/3 OF THE FA ATTM W/ MAINLY CLR SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINING SRN 2/3. RADAR RETURNS ALSO SHOW A FEW PSBL -SW ACROSS
THE FAR N ATTM. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SEWRD
ACROSS OUR FA THIS AM THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE JUST S AND E OF THE
AREA LATE TODAY. BEST CLDS AND PRECIP CHCS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE N THO WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE JUST CHC POPS W/ LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. SRLY FLOW AND CLDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
KEEPING TEMPS UP ACROSS THE N WHILE LIGHTER WNDS AND CLR SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ACROSS OUR SRN AREAS W/ COLDEST OVRNGT LOW
TEMPS LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY THO CAA WILL KICK IN LATER TODAY ON
BRISK NWRLY WNDS. THIS CAA WILL PERSIST THRU TNGT W/ ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD BUT DRY AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S FAR NW TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE
COAST THEN FALL OFF TO NR ZERO FAR NW TNGT TO THE UPPER TEENS NR
THE COAST...
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A BIT
ON MONDAY, THOUGH WE`LL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THIS EVENT, CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
MAINE WILL LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THERE`S STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE WEEK, SPECIFICALLY WITH THE
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN KEEP HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THEREFORE SHUNT THE LOW
WELL OUT TO SEA. THESE SCENARIOS WOULD GIVE CARIBOU`S FORECAST AREA
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHICH MEANS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WOULD SEE SNOW. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, AND WOULD KEEP AREAS FROM HOULTON
NORTH DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES, OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS (50%) OVER OUR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS, WITH 30% AND 40% NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: W/ SOME SNOW MELT PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SRN TAF SITES AND CLR SKIES/LGT WNDS IN PLACE
W/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES JUST S OF THIS AREA...THERE IS A THREAT OF
SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDS AT OUR SRN TAF SITES OVRNT INTO ERLY SAT
AM. ACROSS THE N...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THESE AREAS THIS
AM W/ CAA TO FOLLOW AND THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
MVFR FROM ERLY THIS AM INTO LATE AM/ERLY AFTN. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES FROM THIS AFTN THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS COME ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHEN TWO
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TURN THE SNOW
OVER TO RAIN FROM HOULTON SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FCSTS SSERLY SWELL FROM DEEP LOW
PRES PASSING WELL SE OF THE AREA TO PUSH SEAS UP INTO THE 6+ FT
RANGE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN. W/ A SFC PRES GRADIENT ALSO SUPPORTING
WND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S...HAVE OPTED FOR A GENERIC SCA FROM
00Z THIS EVE THRU 14Z SUN AM.

SHORT TERM: WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS RESPOND TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/MCW/HASTINGS