Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310242 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1042 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 10PM UPDATE: DID BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS; CHANGES WERE MOSTLY THROUGH 06Z, BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT IN SOME SPOTS - MAINLY THE NRN CWA. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS POPS THROUGH MONDAY, AS 00Z NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF ANY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z, THEN EXITING TO THE EAST BY AROUND 21Z OR PERHAPS A BIT SOONER. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO MID WEEK. EASTERN MAINE WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SUMMER HOLDING ON INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WONDERFUL LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: 10PM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. 00Z TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LOCATIONS AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU SUNRISE. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /FVE CAR PQI/ ON WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI MARINE...KREDENSOR/NORCROSS/OKULSKI

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