-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
408
FXUS61 KCAR 271106
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
706 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region today. Low pressure
will approach from the west tonight into Saturday, cross the
area Saturday night, then exit into the Maritimes Sunday into
Sunday night. A warm front will cross the area Monday into
Tuesday followed by two cold front crossing the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:15 AM Update...Adjusted temps a bit across the area and backed
off on increasing clouds early this morning. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

Previous discussion...
High pressure across the area will bring a mostly sunny morning.
An area of low pressure developing over South Central Ontario,
supported by a shortwave moving through the Western Great Lakes,
will begin to approach this afternoon bringing increasing high
clouds. Clouds will continue to increase tonight and rain will
begin to spread into the area ahead of the low late tonight.
Rain will initially spread along a warm frontal boundary across
the central part of the region after midnight, then further
north toward dawn early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts by
early Saturday morning may be approaching a half inch over some
western areas with about a tenth of an inch further to the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will be tracking well NW of the state with a triple
point cyclogenesis working into New England Saturday. Much of
the forecast area will be north of the warm front but this will
be the best area of surface lift aiding the enhancement of
rainfall. PWATs from the Central Highlands to the Downeast coast
will have increased to 1.7 to 2 inches which is 150-185 percent
of normal. Highs struggling to get into the upper 50s to near
60F. Winds will be SE 10-15mph on what will be a cool, damp,
cloudy day across the area. The best lift/focus for rainfall
will continue to be across the central Maine Highlands and
Downeast areas, in the vicinity of the boundary, with lesser
chances further north. However, latest trends in operational and
ensemble members have allowed for a slight uptick in rainfall
totals northward. The greatest potential of forecast bust is
across the north where the boundary has to be close enough to
bump rainfall totals up. But...the probabilities of greater than
0.5 inch of rain in the northern parts of the CWA have
increased to 55-65 percent in latest runs of the models. This is
in response to numerous members slightly shifting the focus of
the triple point track along the boundary across the Central
Highlands.

Given these changes rainfall totals were adjusted upward
areawide in response to increased probabilities. Through Sunday
AM they are expected to range from 0.4 to 0.6 inch across the
St. John Valley and NE Aroostook, and from 1-1.5 inch across the
rest of the region. Some locally higher amounts are possible
across the higher terrain of Piscataquis county in the favored
upslope areas along the Longfellow Mtns. Given the lift and some
weak signals of elevated instability near the triple point
cannot rule out a few embedded lightning strikes and given the
NBM probabilities of at most slight chance of thunder will keep
this as a mention. Any lightning will be few and far between...

Unsettled and damp weather conditions are expected to continue,
at least through early Sunday until the 500 MB short wave moves
east. Just a few showers across the north into the afternoon.
Highs in the low to mid 60s north with upper 60s to low 70s for
the Bangor region to Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall large scale ridging over the Atlantic south of Bermuda
will keep the jet stream over the area and consistently moving
disturbances through the area. In the grand scheme of things
this pattern favors a warmer trend with brief periods of humid
conditions into the state. Each day Mon-Thu will feature chances
of showers and even some thunderstorms with persistent fronts
within the flow. The greatest risk of storms and widespread
rainfall in the long term will be Tuesday. Tuesday a warm and
humid day with highs in the 70s and 80s and an approaching cold
front means thunderstorms. There remains a ton of uncertainty on
instability this far out but cannot rule out some stronger
storms that day. Neither of the days from Mon-Thu are a complete
washout with some areas staying dry while others have greater
risk of rainfall. Given the increased moisture in the boundary
layer and winds off the colder Gulf of Maine waters fog will be
possible especially at night from Mon night to Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today into this evening.
Conditions may lower to MVFR and possibly IFR very late tonight
across the north as lower clouds and rain spread into the area.
Conditions should remain VFR over the south through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sat through Sun...MVFR/IFR. Highest confidence in IFR at
KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. Rain. S to SW wind 10-15kt. LLWS possible Sat
through Sat night.

Mon...AM FG at southern terms resulting in IFR/LIFR possible.
Otherwise VFR all sites. Northern terms VCSH in the afternoon
with brief vsby drops. SSW-SW winds 5-10kt.

Tue...AM FG at southern terms resulting in IFR/LIFR possible.
VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in SHRA/TS during the afternoon. SW
winds 10-20kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas should be below SCA today and tonight.
Vsby should be good through late tonight, possibly lowering in
some rain toward dawn.

SHORT TERM: SE winds may gust 20-25kt Sat afternoon into early
Sun AM as a storm system crosses the areas. S-SE swells will
approach 4-5kt with potential of up to 6ft over the far outer
coastal waters (>20nm). At this point due to track
inconsistencies in the models will hold off on SCA headlines.
Swells will relax to 3-5ft on Sun with winds back below 20kt.
Mon-Wed expecting winds/seas below SCA criteria. Sea surface
water temperatures this weekend into next week expected to be
50-54F from the Hancock County coast out 25nm including
Penobscot Bay. The water temps from the Washington County coast
out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay
will range from 46-51F. Coldest waters will be near the Hague
Line into Passamaquoddy Bay. In terms of precipitation, fog and
rain may reduce vsby Sat-Sun AM. Fog returns Mon-Wed reducing
vsby especially at night. Showers likely Tuesday and potentially
a thunderstorm near the shore.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...Bloomer/Sinko
Marine...Bloomer/Sinko