Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060514 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 114 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT... BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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107 AM UPDATE...SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS SPILLING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. SKIES WILL THEN CLR OVRNGT AS WINDS BECOME LGT. THE ONLY CONCERN MIGHT BE LCLZD PATCHY VALLEY FOG...SPCLY OVR THE SMALL PTNS OF THE FA WHICH DO RECEIVE SHWRS FROM THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT FOR NOW... GIVEN THE SIG DRYING XPCTD ALF...WE HELD OFF PATCHY FOG THINKING THE END RESULT MIGHT BE MORE IN THE FORM OF ERLY MORNING DEW. AFT NEAR SEASONAL LOW TEMPS SUNRISE MON MORN...TEMPS WILL RISE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY SUN UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LGT WSW WINDS TO HIGHS SIG ABV 80 DEG F...XCPT ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AND HIGH TRRN ABV 1500 FT MSL OVR NW ME. THIS BASED ON FCST MAX AFTN 925 MB TEMPS OF +19 TO +21 DEG C AT 21Z MON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THIS FLOW ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST GFS POSITIONS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MAINE LATE ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UP BUT IS 12 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD TNGT THRU TUE. ONLY ITEMS OF NOTE ARE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT SW-S WINDS BY 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH, AND EXPECTED SCT CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO RUN FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THIS PTN OF THE CWF. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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