Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220719 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 319 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east of the region today into Monday. A trough of low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Strong High pressure will slowly drift to the east of New England during the day today. A stronger southerly return flow will develop on the back side of the high tonight. Some high clouds will develop in the return flow today and and tonight, however these are expected to remain thin and dry conditions will persist through tonight. Temperatures will continue to moderate in the developing southerly flow through tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Return flow wl be present by the beginning of the pd with high shift south of the Maritimes. H5 ridge wl be cresting ovr CWA on Monday with highs expected to climb to 10-15 degrees abv normal. Warm advection drg the course of Mon night wl lkly keep ovrngt lows above normal highs for this time of year. A very moist and humid airmass wl be present thru the day on Tuesday. Expect that precip wl be mainly in the form of drizzle as CWA wl be in the warm sector, with little in the way of synoptic frcg until later in the aftn as lead s/wv ejects into wrn Maine.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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All med range guidance agree on tropical connection setting up Tue night with sfc low just east of James Bay with frontal bndry extending down twd FL. PW values increase abv 1.5 inches Tue night as strong LLJ (50+kts at H9) draws in moist airmass thru the end of the week. 00z GFS/00z EC starting to come into reasonable agreement on swath of moderate-hvy rain mvg in Wed morning with another wave riding up along boundary fm the Atlantic Wed night and continuing into the day Thur. EC is slower mvg stalled frontal bndry to the east as it closes off H5 low ovr the northeast while GFS is more progressive with upr lvl system. The mvmnt of this system wl depend on strength of blocking high ovr the north Atlantic by the end of the week. Due to discrepancies in how long pcpn wl hold on hv not added in mention of locally hvy rain, which wl be entirely dependent on mvmnt of wvs along the front. Despite the discrepancies btwn the GFS and EC they are remarkably close with regard to 48-hr qpf amnts thru 12z Friday. Both models indicate somewhere btwn 5-6 inches expected acrs the central part of the state (i.e. the Katahdin region). Later in the week and into the weekend, high pressure looks to return to the area to allow CWA to dry out. Temps wl rmn near- abv normal. Hv discarded CMC soln as it appears to be too progressive with mid-week system resulting in trof affecting the area for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Monday before lowering to MVFR Mon night as southerly flow draws in low clouds from south to north. Expect low MVFR/IFR conditions through Thursday in fog, drizzle and locally heavy rainfall.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate the surface wind speed. For Waves: Under light air conditions, current spectra from 44027 indicates that long period southeasterly swell 1-2 feet/10 seconds is the only significant wave system present. The long period wave system has been very consistent with boundary condition forecast from Wave Watch III last several runs. A secondary wind wave is expected later today as northeasterly winds develop and back into the Southeast later tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) for wave grids. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas increase above SCA levels beginning Tue morning in response to southerly flow. Gale force winds may be possible late Tue night and Wed morning with southerly swell leading to seas running between 10-15 feet through Wed night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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