Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 032227 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 627 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING RAINFALL TO DOWNEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 627 PM UPDATE...A GLOOMY EVENING ACROSS THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS COVERING THE AREA FROM THE COAST TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THERE IS WEAK NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RIDE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. A BIT OF FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC LOPRES SITTING SOUTH OF THE NY BIGHT HAS SPREAD PCPN ACRS CAPE COD THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM WL EJECT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT LEADING TO NERLY FLOW ACRS CWA. THIS WL KEEP AREA MOCLDY OVRNGT AND WHERE BREAKS ARE ABLE TO DVLP WL LKLY SEE PATCHY FOG SET IN. HV INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN FOR ENTIRE AREA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT WITH DWPTS RMNG IN THE U30S AND TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO NR DWPT VALUES TONIGHT. HIPRES WL BUILD EAST INTO QUEBEC TOMORROW MRNG KEEPING ERLY FLOW PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT CLDS TO THIN DRG THE AFTN BUT STILL EXPECTING MOCLDY CONDS WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. MAXES WL CLIMB TO NR NORMAL ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S ACRS THE NORTH AND U50S FOR DOWNEAST AREAS, COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST. ONE WAVE WILL MAKE ITS PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, THOUGH EXPECT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE TO HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSING ON DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL PULL AWAY BY FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING US A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY EVEN SEE SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS, GIVEN PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AS WE SEE SOME SUN AND WINDS LESSEN A BIT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD OVER MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD CORE LOW WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NJ. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE NJ COASTAL AREA AS IT SLOWLY FILLS...IT WILL SPIN OFF OCCASIONAL TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. A LOW OVER THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE SE TO THE ST LAWRENCE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE WRN MAINE/QUEBEC BOARDER. THE REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE FILLING LOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN MAINE SUN MRNG AS THESE TWO SYSTEM COMBINE INTO ONE. BY EARLY MON MRNG THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE...THE TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF THE LOW IS A BIT OFF. THE GFS MOVES THE SFC LOW TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER CO-LOCATES THE SFC AND UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC NW OF NRN MAINE. ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE. MON EVNG BOTH MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING WRAP AROUND PCPN INTO NRN AND ERN MAINE. TUES MRNG HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...A FEW REMAINING SHOWER OVER NERN MAINE...WHICH WILL CLEAR THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AT BGR AND BHB, EXPECT LOW END VFR THIS EVENING. TRICKY NORTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z WED WITH VFR DURING THE DAY WED. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP VISIBILITY TO 4-5SM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY RMN BLO SCA CRITERIA THRU THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT TERM: A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS

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