Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280230 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1030 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. High pressure will briefly build into the area, followed by a secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1030 PM Update... Hrly temps/dewpoints needed adjustments to meet up with the latest conditions as temps continued to slowly cool off. Quite a contrast from the St. John Valley where temps were running in the 40s while s of this region, readings were in the 50s. The exception to this was the immediate coast such as Bar Harbor at 45F w/se winds coming off the cold Gulf of Maine waters. The latest sfc analysis showed a frontal boundary extending from north-central Maine back into sw Quebec. This boundary was acting as a dividing line where temps in the upper 30s and 40s across the Crown into Canada and in the 50s s of the front. Still expecting temps to slowly cool overnight. Radar showed some light returns pushing from the s from the coast up into northern areas in the form of light rain and drizzle. Decided to keep the mention of light rain and drizzle in the forecast overnight along w/the continuation of areas of fog. Previous Discussion... Expect lows to drop towards 50F with some mid to upper 40s on the coast due to the onshore flow. Fog, light rain and drizzle remain the predominant conditions under the persistent inversion during Friday morning, but a weakening cold front will cross during the afternoon and finally break up the inversion with drier continental air by Friday evening. Changed the type of precipitation to showers for the afternoon, but do not expect any thunderstorm activity as SB-CAPE doesn`t make it into the forecast area and elevated CAPE looks weak. Furthermore, fog and stratus will tend to linger towards the coast all day as the inversion won`t break there until later Friday night. Highs on Friday look warmer for most locations except the coastal zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A weak high pressure ridge will build into the area behind a cold frontal system that moved over New Brunswick. A low moving through the IN/IL will move to southwestern Maine Saturday morning. Saturday evening the low will move east if the area and higher pressure will briefly build back in across the area. A warm front will move into southwest Maine early Sunday afternoon, then into central Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement. An active period of weather with lows and fronts tracking through the area every 12 hrs or so. A warm frontal system moves into southwest Maine at the start of the period, and spread across the state by Monday morning. The warm front will clear the area Monday evening, and the associated cold front will move into northwest Maine. The cold front will move east of the area Tuesday morning, Higher pressure will build into southern Maine. A filling low over southwestern Quebec, will move east across northern Maine Tuesday evening through Thursday morning bringing showers to the area. High pressure will build into the area, but will be moved east by the end of the period as another frontal system pushes into southwest Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR will continue at higher terrain terminals such as GNR and FVE through Friday morning. Other terminals that are currently MVFR will slowly return to IFR and LIFR this evening. By morning, all sites are expected to be LIFR to VLIFR due to fog and low clouds, but will recover to MVFR by afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR early in HUL as a few scatter shower clear the area, otherwise VFR all sites. VFR conditions over night, increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings as a low moves into the area Saturday morning. MVFR conditions in rain late morning Sunday through early evening, then clearing. VFR conditions Saturday evening through early afternoon Sunday. A warm front will move into central Maine bringing conditons down to MVFR by afternoon, the frontal system will stall over central Maine then move north as a warm front. MVFR conditions will remain in BHB, BGR, and HUL, PQI, CAR, and FVE will fall to IFR in rain Monday afternoon. IFR conditions will spread to all sites early Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through the state. MVFR BHB, and BGR Tuesday morning, then to other sites Tuesday afternoon. Wrap around precipitation around a filling low pressure system over eastern Quebec will affect the area through the end of the period keeping Maine in MVFR to IFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog and long period south swell continue to be the big issues on the waters tonight into Friday. The long period swell should diminish enough to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas by the advertised timeframe. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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