Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270032 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002- 004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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