-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 271604
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1104 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. BAND IS MOVING
NORTH, BUT WILL MODIFY IN INTENSITY A BIT AS IT DOES SO. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. SOME
LIGHTER BANDS OF SNOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING DOWNEAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH
A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE.
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH
INTO DOWN EAST MAINE AS OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. LIGHTER
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONSISTING OF THE DEEP LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER AND A SECOND TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LABRADOR AT
12Z WED. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THU AND MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
DAY THU. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NY STATE BY 00Z FRI.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
WED MORNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG WIND DIMINISHES. THERE
WILL LIKELY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WED WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWN EAST. IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COLD
WED NIGHT AND DRY AND SEASONABLE THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN FROM
THE W THU NIGHT AND DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRI. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW BACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
FRI. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE WE ARE
DONE WITH THE CURRENT STORM THAT WE COULD VERY WELL NEED ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR THE BANGOR AND KATAHDIN
REGIONS EAST. THE LOW PULLS AWAY SAT AND SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
DRY AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF YET MORE
SNOW BY MON....BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS MORE SUPPRESSED AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS IN SNOW. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR WED NIGHT AND THU.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FRI IN SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 NM THROUGH TONIGHT IN SNOW.

SHORT TERM: ONCE THE STORM WARNING COMES DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND 00Z THU.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI.  A GALE IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES PULLS EAST OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 4 AM THIS MORNING...430 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD SNOWFALL FOR TODAY, 1/27 AT BANGOR IS 10.8"
SET IN 1963. THIS RECORD HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING BROKEN.
THE RECORD AT CARIBOU IS 9.9", SET IN 1963.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...CB