Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280442 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE 1235 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE. TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG, DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND 00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z. AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES. RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS. EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI, MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING, WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. IFR OR WORSE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT TO KBGR AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTH. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KHUL NORTH) LATER TONIGHT BUT TENTATIVELY HAVE IFR IN THE TAF IN THE NORTH TOO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR TUESDAY DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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