Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181058 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 658 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build east across the region today. Low pressure will intensify southeast of the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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655 AM Update: Satl imagery showed cloud coverage shrinking this morning as the the llvls beginning to dry out. Temps have dropped off significantly w/the clearing as readings were 5 to 10 degrees across the n. Adjusted the sky conditions to reflect the clearing trend. Also w/the sunshine forecast for today, added a few degrees to the afternoon high temps. Previous Discussion... Main challenge this term will be clouds and temps. IR satl imagery showed clouds moving down from Canada across the CWA in response to an upper trof as shown by the 00z UA. The thickest cloud cover was across the northern 1/2 of CWA. The latest loop showed clouds advecting across central and downeast areas and thinning a bit due to the downsloping winds. The clouds have kept temps up from the previous forecast. The latest run of the NAM and HRRR doing well w/the clouds and show the clouds breaking up by early afternoon as the upper trof slides s of the region. This will lead to sunshine and temps warming to near normal levels today. For tonight, clear skies to start the night and w/low dwpts, temps will drop off when dark settles in. Clouds will be on the increase later tonight across the Downeast region as low pres begins to lift up from the mid Atlc region. Interesting enough, the mdl soundings point to some llvl moisture getting trapped under an inversion across portions of the north and west. Concern is that some low stratus could set up as winds in the first 5k ft turn more ese. Attm, did not entertain this, but the daycrew can assess this further today. Overnight lows will be in the single numbers for the n and w and low to mid teens central and downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure dominates most of the area on Sunday with a light northeast flow in response to an offshore storm. The latest guidance has backed off slightly with impacts from this storm in the forecast area. Have maintained categorical pops right along the coast, but reduced snow accumulations towards 2-3 inches right along the Washington County coast. There will likely be a very sharp cut-off little or no accumulation north of a line from Ellsworth to Calais. The storm will move out later Sunday night and an upper ridge builds over the area Monday with much warmer temperatures. Have taken a conservative approach to Monday`s highs and they may need to be raised further. Will have to continue watching for another impulse rotating around the offshore low to hit Washington County with some showers later Monday. Went with a lot of sunshine on Monday as it appears it will be a bit too dry for persistent stratocumulus fields. On Monday night, a weak cold front will cross. Went above guidance for lows Monday night with increasing high clouds and warm advection ahead of the front. This front will be followed by an Arctic front Tuesday afternoon. There may be some snow squalls in northern zones on Tuesday afternoon with a fairly deep unstable layer towards H700. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold Arctic air mass settles over the area Tuesday night into Friday. Deep mixing will produce gusty west to northwest winds Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of temperatures, have leaned more towards MOS guidance rather than raw models which suggest much colder temperatures than our current forecast. This Arctic outbreak will end with a warm front approaching Friday into Friday night with an increasing chance of light snow Friday night. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. Cloud deck of 4000 ft across the northern terminals this morning will give way to clearing conditions. The caveat to tonight is the potential for IFR/MVFR as some llvl moisture could advect into the region well after midnight as winds go ese. SHORT TERM: Mostly VFR through the period with a slight chance of some thin MVFR cigs on Sunday and Monday. Snow squalls are possible...mostly north of HUL...on Tuesday afternoon with temporary IFR to LIFR vis. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will be light from the nnw today at 5-10 kts. Winds will increase and turn more ene tonight w/speeds increasing to 15-20 kts sustained. Gusts to 25 kts expected especially over the outer zones. Seas will be 1-2 ft today gradually building to 3 to 5 ft later tonight. SHORT TERM: In collaboration with GYX, have issued a Gale Watch for the outer waters Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as an offshore storm strengthens. Seas will reach 12 to 14 feet with longer period swells. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for ANZ050-051.
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