Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191918 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 318 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level low will cross the area tonight. Warm high pressure will build over the region Friday into Saturday. Low pressure from the mid Atlantic states will move toward Nova Scotia on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Shwr cvrg distribution compared to the max axis of PoPs ovr wrn and cntrl ptns of the FA is pretty good, but little if any thunder in our FA. We believe llvl mixed layer dwpts of mid to upper 30s this aftn have lmtd updraft potential for tstms, at least thru this tm. We will leave mention of chc tstms in the grids til 6 pm just in case, but the potential of occurrence is going by the board. Otherwise, shwr cvrg will diminish durg the eve hrs as dytm htg wanes. we then xpct more general clrg from NW to SE across the FA late tngt into erly Fri mrng behind the departing upper low as it moves E into the Can Maritimes. Given lmtd potential of mclr skies for a sig length of tm ovr any particular ptn of the FA late tngt, we do not see much chc of patchy erly mrng fog on Fri attm, but this will need to be monitored going into the ovrngt. Fri looks to be ptly to msly sunny and warmer with more uniform aftn hi temps. We kept isold shwr PoPs for the far NE Fri aftn as a weak s/wv slides NW to SE from E cntrl QB into NB prov...but any shwrs will have lmtd vertical development with tops aob 15kft agl.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Other than some minor timing issues the models are in good agreement through the period. A weak high pressure ridge will be built into the area at the start of the period. A cold frontal system over central Canada, a low with another frontal system over KY/OH with the front extending south to FL. The high pressure ridge will remain over Maine through SAT afternoon. The cold front will slip into northern Maine early SUN morning, the low front KY/OH will move off the coast of NJ. SAT morning the cold front will move to central Maine. The low from the other system will track across the southern Gulf of Maine, the circulation around the low forcing the cold front to stall over Maine. By the end of the period the low in the Gulf of Maine will be south of sw Nova Scotia. The front will remain stationary over south central Maine. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Unsettled weather is expected for much of next week. An upper low will meander its way around the eastern US through the period, spreading waves of moisture and precipitation into Maine. Monday`s rain chances look to be mainly limited to coastal/Downeast areas, but the whole region gets in on the act Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low moves right across the state. Some spots may get a rumble of thunder or two Wednesday or Thursday, but too much uncertainty in the details to add it into the forecast at this time. Temperatures will be near to above normal through the week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Will cont VFR all TAF sites tngt into Fri...but cannot rule out a brief pd or two of MVFR clgs/vsbys this eve with any heavier shwr that may directly move ovr any TAF site. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions all sites at the start of the period. Increasing high and mid level colds as systems approach from the north and south. MVFR conditions will affect all sites early SUN mrng,decreasing to IFR conditions for BGR and BHB as a low tracks across the srn Gulf of Maine. VFR conditions for FVE, CAR, PQI early Mon mrng, MVFR HUL, BGR, and BHB. VFR conditions will return to all sites Mon evng.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd tngt and Fri with winds and wvs well below SCA thresholds. Stayed close to WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts durg these pds. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas building Sun afternoon and a SCA may be required Sun afternoon, otherwise winds and seas below SCA through the period.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Hastings Aviation...VJN/Norton Marine...VJN/Norton

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