Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251953 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 353 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY DOMINATE WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED PREFER TO USE MOSG25. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF...CMCREG AND ECMWF. BASED ON BOIVERIFY STATS WILL USE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED HIRESWARMBC. THE ALL BLEND WAS USED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN .25" AT MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW TUESDAY VALUES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24...EXCEPTION IS KBHB WHERE INTERMITTENT IFR DUE TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE MAINE COAST WILL GENERATE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FEET ON THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: WITH LIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION EXPECT LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL INITIALIZE WITH NAM12 AND LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 PERCENT. FOR WAVES: SPECTRAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVE WATCH III SUGGEST PRIMARY WAVE GROUP FROM SOUTH...HOWEVER SPECTRAL FROM 44027 SUGGEST LONG PERIOD GROUP FROM EAST MORE SIGNIFICANT. WILL USE SWAN/NAM WHICH HAS BETTER HANDLE ON BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. DO NOT EXPECT WAVE SYSTEMS FROM CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 26TH IN CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET IN 2012. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...RB AVIATION...MIGNONE/OKULSKI MARINE...MIGNONE/OKULSKI CLIMATE...RB

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