Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170518 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 118 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 110 AM UPDATE: TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF STEADILY W/CLEAR SKIES AND THE HELP OF SOME NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH THE CURRENT READINGS BUT NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT DOWN A NOTCH. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO MAINE TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE NW VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THE THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THERE MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A M/SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE NW ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREAS SUNDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 50S...ALTHOUGH SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN. A SW FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. A GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SAT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS SAT. MOSTLY VFR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE CHANGED THE SCA TO AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS SEAS RUNNING ABV FCST VALS FOR THIS TIME AND WILL RUN THE SCA TIL MID AM THU. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... WATER LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAINED WATER COVERED AND CLOSED. THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ICE JAM FLOODING ALSO STILL REMAINS A CONCERN ON THE ST JOHN W/SOLID ICE STILL FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RIVER GAGES THAT ARE EITHER CURRENTLY IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD INCLUDE: MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD PENOBSCOT RIVER AT EDDINGTON && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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