Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241642 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1242 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1240 PM UPDATE... 12Z KCAR UA SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY PROFILE THIS MORNING BELOW H5. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWED SOME PATCHY CI TRAVERSING THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. A SHALLOW INVERSION FORMS TONIGHT WITH WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS...AND EVEN A FEW READINGS AROUND ZERO IN NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STAY IN THE TEENS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE INVERSION ALTHOUGH THE BIAS- CORRECTED OUTPUTS GENERALLY HAD THE RIGHT PATTERN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIPRES WL BE CRESTING OVR AREA ON WEDNESDAY BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT. SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTH WHERE HIGH CLDS WL BE SKIRTING ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE IN ADVANCE OF IMPENDING SYSTEM DRG THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS DRG THE DAY WL BE IN THE M/U 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY WRMNG TO NR 40 FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS. H5 TROF CURRENTLY SWINGING THRU CNTRL PLAINS WL TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT ALLOWING H5 RIDGE TO FLATTEN BY 00Z THUR. AT THE SAME TIME A SFC WMFNT WL ADVANCE TWD AREA ON STRONG SRLY FLOW WITH H8 JET OVR WRN ZONES APPCHG 45KTS BY THIS TIME. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION PCPN BY EVNG IN AREA OF UPGLIDE. ONLY CAVEAT WL BE HOW MUCH DRY AIR WL BE IN PLACE WITH LATEST 00Z BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATING PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME HWVR, AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, MODELS TEND TO BE TOO SLOW WITH ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN. THUS HV BUMPED POPS TO CHC CATEGORY BY LATE WED AFTN. CWA WL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED NGT WITH JUST SCTD POPS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG OVRNGT BUT HV OPTED NOT TO ADD IN AT THIS POINT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND MIXED PCPN IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALES, WITH MAINLY FROZEN PCPN ACRS FAR NORTH. ALL MED RANGE MODELS INDICATING COASTAL FRONT WL SET UP ALONG THE COAST AND/OR JUST OFFSHORE THUR AFTN WITH ANOTHER WV RIDING UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. QPF AMNTS ON THUR AFTN LOOK TO RANGE ANYWHERE FM 0.10-0.50 INCHES WITH 00Z NAM AND CMC BEING FURTHEST OFFSHORE WITH MAX. 00Z EC AND GFS CLUSTERING ALONG COASTAL CNTYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DEPENDING ON WHERE COASTAL FRONT CAN SET UP WL DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN FALLS EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AS WV RIDES UP IN SW FLOW. BY 12Z FRIDAY, EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH THRU CWA LEADING TO COLDER AIR SLOWLY OOZING INTO MAINE OVR THE WEEKEND. COLDEST TEMPS LOOK TO IMPACT AREA SAT/SAT NGT WITH HIGHS DRG THE DAY RANGING FM U20S ACRS THE NORTH TO M/U 30S ALONG THE COAST AND MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE WX THRU THE WEEKEND BFR NEXT SYSTEM HEADS IN FM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEGINNING WED EVNG THROUGH FRIDAY IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRES. SHORT TERM: SCA NEEDED LATE WED NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WV HEIGHTS OF 6-10 FEET DURING THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/MCW/MIGNONE

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