Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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613 FXUS61 KCAR 210230 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south of the area overnight and Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday. The low will track to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday as it pulls a cold front across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1030 PM Update... Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the latest conditions showing a cooling trend. Dewpoints have leveled off and actually have crept up a bit over the last few hrs. W winds have picked up some as a weak disturbance is shown the by latest RAP to move across the region overnight. Satl IR imagery showed an area of clouds over the St. Lawrence River dropping se. These clouds will skirt the Crown overnight some patchy clouds overnight. The rest of the CWA should be mostly clear. Will need to monitor for some fog by early Monday morning especially in the low lying areas and along the river. Winds in these areas have dropped off below 4 mph plus some rainfall earlier could allow for temp/dewpoint spread to close in w/in 3 degrees to allow for the formation. Previous Discussion... Skies will become mostly clear across the area as high pressure builds to our south and an upper level shortwave slides away to the east. High pressure along the east coast combined with upper level ridging over our area will then bring a mostly sunny and very warm day on Monday for our partial eclipse. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s over most inland locations with cooler temps along the coast. Moisture rounding the top of the ridge may stray into northern areas late in the day bringing some patchy clouds. There may be a stray shower in far northwestern areas late in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected across the region on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak high pressure is expected to be over the region Monday Night. An intensifying low pressure system will move northeast from the Great Lakes into Canada during the day Tuesday. A cold front behind this low will approach the region from he west Late Tuesday and move across New England Tuesday Night. Showers and Thunderstorms ahead of this front are expected Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Showers are expected into early Wednesday as an upper level trough moves across the region. Clearing is then expected Wednesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level trough will approach from the west Wednesday Night and move across the North Thursday. This system may bring some showers and clouds to the north on Thursday, otherwise expect partly sunny conditions. A northwesterly flow is expected to persist into the weekend keeping temperatures relatively cool. Will use the Super Blend for this period. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight and Monday. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are expected Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts out of the west may approach 25 kt over the offshore waters Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA through Monday. SHORT TERM: For winds have used the NAM winds to initialize grids then have reduced the model winds by 15 percent to adjust for boundary conditions. Will transition to the Super Blend winds late Wednesday. For Waves: The primary wave system Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be southerly wind wave. Waves are expected to build o 4-5 feet/6-7 seconds Wednesday as a southerly fetch develops across the Gulf of Maine. Southeasterly longer period swell (2-3 feet/8-9 seconds)is expected to become the primary wave system on Thursday and Friday. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) for wave grids. Will lower wave heights 1 foot below NWPS Model due to expected high bias in boundary waves. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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