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000
FXUS61 KCAR 260409
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1209 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight through
Monday, then move east Monday night. An occluded front will
slowly cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure
in Labrador will build Wednesday into Thursday with a moist
easterly flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update...
High pressure will continue to build toward the area overnight.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall
overnight with frost expected by sunrise in most areas away from
the immediate coast. No significant changes as going forecast has
this all covered nicely.

Previous Discussion...
Frost remains the primary concern for this period. Will leave the
existing advisories in place. All zones are vulnerable except
along the coast. A hard freeze is probable towards northwest
Aroostook where lows in the 20s are expected. This is where winds
are most likely to become calm later tonight as the high builds.
Further east towards the eastern border of Maine, boundary layer
north winds will continue much of the night and prevent
decoupling/deep inversions except in the usual valleys and
sheltered areas. No additional frost or freeze warnings will be
issued for Aroostook County...northern Piscataquis and northern
Somerset counties based on reasons outlined in the NWS Caribou
Public Information Statement issued yesterday evening. Monday
looks like an excellent day with clear skies, highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s and low humidity.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS has sped up compared to the past few days and is now
having precip push into the CWA at the same time as the ECMWF, if
not actually a bit earlier. One thing that models started picking
up on yesterday and are showing a bit more today is potential
cyclogenesis near the triple point of the occlusion over s`rn New
Eng Tue AM. The Low would then track along the coast or over the
Gulf of Maine. At this point, that Low doesn`t seem to be overly
strong, but even a weak coastal Low would act to siphon rain away
from the interior. As such, didn`t touch POPs too much, but did
draw down QPF for the interior zones while boosting it a bit at
the coast, and our QPF is in good collaboration with GYX.

The main precip area will likely move out Tue eve, but there
remains uncertainty on the pattern for Tue night into Wed. The GFS
shows the front pushing further offshore before stalling, leading
to mostly dry conditions over the CWA for Wed. However, other
guidance points to the front possibly stalling closer to the CWA,
with occasional rain chances continuing, especially for Downeast
and the eastern zones. As such, maintained Chc POPs for Tue night
into Wed, and these may need to be boosted going forward,
depending on the forecast position of the front. It looks like a
cool, wet day Tue, with highs a bit below normal. A return toward
normal highs on Wed is possible, pending the precip/cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our focus going into the latter part of the week will be on a trough
of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region and surface low
pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Moisture from this
low may remain south of here, possibly pushing toward the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure is then expected to
build across our north Friday into Saturday possibly keeping
northern areas dry while the moisture form the Mid-Atlantic system
brushes the coast with some clouds and showers. Moisture may remain
nearby to our south on Sunday as high pressure continues to ridge
across the north. The low expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic
is a recent development in our latest forecast guidance and
therefore confidence is low on how it will evolve and affect our
region. The intensity of the low and the strength of the high to
our north will ultimately determine how far north moisture may
progress next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight
through Monday.

SHORT TERM: A mid-level cloud deck is forecast to move into the
CWA from west to east between 06z and 12z Tue, with MVFR/IFR CIGs
and lower vsbys expected thereafter as the rain shield moves
across the area. Forecast gets more complicated for Wed onward, as
it will be dependent on how far east of the area a front stalls.
At the very least, MVFR CIGs are quite psbl on Wed, with ocnl
lower vsby in any areas of rain. For Thu and Fri, variable flying
conditions appear likely, with the greatest risk of reduced CIGs
and vsbys for KBGR and KBHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels overnight through Monday.

SHORT TERM: Did adjust seas downward a bit for the most part.
Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels this
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ005-010-011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/MCW
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Duda/MCW/Kredensor
Marine...Duda/MCW/Kredensor