Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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998 FXUS61 KCAR 171441 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...12Z KCAR SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT THE 850 MB LEVEL. CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER, IT ALSO SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST MAINE LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRATUS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW THEN EXIT ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND WILL BE USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON MOST TERMINALS. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE AMENDED ALL TAFS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE GFS40 AND NAM12. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM (1-2 FEET/9 SECONDS) IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL USE THE 17TH/0300Z NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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