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FXUS61 KCAR 210230
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area overnight and
Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday. The
low will track to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday as it
pulls a cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM Update...
Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the latest conditions
showing a cooling trend. Dewpoints have leveled off and actually
have crept up a bit over the last few hrs. W winds have picked
up some as a weak disturbance is shown the by latest RAP to move
across the region overnight. Satl IR imagery showed an area of
clouds over the St. Lawrence River dropping se. These clouds
will skirt the Crown overnight some patchy clouds overnight. The
rest of the CWA should be mostly clear. Will need to monitor for
some fog by early Monday morning especially in the low lying
areas and along the river. Winds in these areas have dropped off
below 4 mph plus some rainfall earlier could allow for
temp/dewpoint spread to close in w/in 3 degrees to allow for the
formation.

Previous Discussion...
Skies will become mostly clear across the area as high pressure
builds to our south and an upper level shortwave slides away to
the east. High pressure along the east coast combined with
upper level ridging over our area will then bring a mostly sunny
and very warm day on Monday for our partial eclipse. Highs will
be in the low to mid 80s over most inland locations with cooler
temps along the coast. Moisture rounding the top of the ridge
may stray into northern areas late in the day bringing some
patchy clouds. There may be a stray shower in far northwestern
areas late in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected
across the region on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure is expected to be over the region Monday
Night. An intensifying low pressure system will move northeast
from the Great Lakes into Canada during the day Tuesday. A cold
front behind this low will approach the region from he west
Late Tuesday and move across New England Tuesday Night. Showers
and Thunderstorms ahead of this front are expected Tuesday
Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Showers are expected into early
Wednesday as an upper level trough moves across the region.
Clearing is then expected Wednesday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough will approach from the west Wednesday
Night and move across the North Thursday. This system may bring
some showers and clouds to the north on Thursday, otherwise
expect partly sunny conditions. A northwesterly flow is
expected to persist into the weekend keeping temperatures
relatively cool. Will use the Super Blend for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Monday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are expected Tuesday. VFR conditions
are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts out of the west may approach 25 kt
over the offshore waters Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA through Monday.

SHORT TERM: For winds have used the NAM winds to initialize
grids then have reduced the model winds by 15 percent to adjust
for boundary conditions. Will transition to the Super Blend
winds late Wednesday. For Waves: The primary wave system Tuesday
and Wednesday is expected to be southerly wind wave. Waves are
expected to build o 4-5 feet/6-7 seconds Wednesday as a
southerly fetch develops across the Gulf of Maine. Southeasterly
longer period swell (2-3 feet/8-9 seconds)is expected to become
the primary wave system on Thursday and Friday. Will use the
Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) for wave grids. Will
lower wave heights 1 foot below NWPS Model due to expected high
bias in boundary waves.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt