-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 120443
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE: WE INCREASED CLD CVR SOMEWHAT FOR THE REST OF TNGT
BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS CLD CVR NOT DISSIPATING
MUCH LATE TNGT. THIS HAS LEAD...IN TURN...TO MILDER TEMPS LATE
TNGT...AND BASED ON TRENDS FROM MDNGT OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV
FCST FOR MDNGT...WE RAISED OVRNGT ;LOWS A FEW DEG WARMER AGAIN.

930 PM UPDATE: ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY
GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

ORGNL DISC: THE WEAK LOW AND OCCLUSION WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY WILL BE MOVING AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. OUR ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK WHICH TAKES THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CAPE COD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN ON TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TRACK FAVORS A HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
HEAVIEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH A WARM MID LAYER ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND
INDICATING A BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER DOWNEAST AREAS
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE
FREEZING LAYER FAVORS SLEET OVER FREEZING RAIN WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF SLEET POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF ICE IS
EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE COAST. RAIN AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES THURSDAY
NIGHT W/A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN TO -16 TO -19C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BACK TO
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST W/SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE PRES
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WHICH COULD KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. ATTM, DID
NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S THINKING OF
0 TO -5 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 5 ABOVE CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY W/DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTHERN HALF AND MID TO UPPER 20S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
WARMER AIR IN ALOFT. THERE IS SOME FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG
W/LLVL CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO SET
UP BY FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LEVEL OFF AFTER
COOLING DOWN IN THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO WARM OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
DECIDED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCE UP TO LIKELY(60%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND SNOW SHOWERS GOING TO RAIN SHOWERS.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW EXPECTED(003-005-006.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ004-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN/HEWITT
MARINE...VJN/HEWITT