-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241143
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. SOME ENHANCEMENT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE
RADAR SOUTH OF PQI ALONG THE RT 1 CORRIDOR. DECIDED TO ADJUST THE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STAYING W/70% EARLY
THIS MORNING AND DROPPED THE POPS N AND W OF THIS BAND TO CHANCE.
THE LATEST RAP WHICH WAS CLOSE ON THIS SETUP SHOWED FORCING TO
WEAKEN W/IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM TO AFFECT
THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A TIGHT PRECIP
GRADIENT W/NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE GETTING SHUT OUT ON THIS
EVENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL NOT ONLY TO QPF AND
SNOWFALL BUT ALSO TO THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.

THE 00Z NAM AND GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP MATCHED UP WELL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS W/TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM THE CAROLINAS
TODAY TO THE NOVA SCOTIA REGION. LATEST PRECIP ANALYSIS AT 06Z
SHOWED THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE DELMARVA.
THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 1000-700MBS THAT SETS UP ACROSS
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP/SNOWFALL RATES. BLYR TEMPS WILL
BE CRUCIAL ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECIDED
TO USE CONSENSUS APCH W/THIS EVENT AND BRING A NOSE OF WARMER IN
THE LLVLS OVER THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID
30S AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING SNOW TO GO TO RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN FOR A
PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BACK AFTER ABOUT 8 PM WITH PRECIP GOING BACK TO SNOW
W/SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BACK TO THE W AND N, BLYR TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. ALL WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
AS THE HEAVY BOUT OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/THE
COOLING TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO CLOSE IN NEAR 7
INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITING AND EASTPORT AREAS.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN AND END LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL ADD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW W/OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS
AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO ABOUT 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 CENTRAL
AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH SUB
ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER FOR TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
WARRANTED BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN EAST AND COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

ANY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/PERIODS OF MVFR THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM KHUL DOWN TO KBHB W/SOME SNOW AND
CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR AND IFR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND SOME TURBULENCE.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SNOW LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB
TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
PER 07Z OBS. WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
HIT 40S OUT OVER THE OUTER ZONES TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT BY LATER TONIGHT.

SOME MINOR OVERWASH ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR SEAWALL ROAD AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NEAR SHORE MODEL INDICATED THAT ANY OVERWASH WOULD BE MINOR. THE
DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE GALES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-029-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MEZ005-006-030-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA