Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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534 FXUS61 KCAR 190448 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1248 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will exit to the east overnight while a warm front crosses the region. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night. High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update... High pressure will exit to the east overnight while a warm front begins to cross the forecast area. Clear skies are expected overnight. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from the upper 20s to mid 30s north, to the mid 30s to lower 40s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions and to slightly lower overnight temperatures across much of the forecast area. Original Discussion... Dry weather continues through Thursday, with warmer and breezy conditions expected. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to upper 60s across much of the area. Another cold front will approach from the west late in the day, increasing clouds and possibly producing a shower or two over the far north in the evening. Winds will become gusty out ahead of this front; gusts of 25-30 mph are possible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Still a mostly dry term w/a continuation of above normal daytime temps. A cold front is forecast to slide across the region Thursday night. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show some support for showers across the northern 1/2 of the CWA w/the best forcing across the far n and w. The 12z NAM and GEM are in support of this solution w/keeping the best chances of showers across the Allagash and St. John Valley. Decided to follow the midnight crew`s assessment of showing 30% pops across the aforementioned areas and 20% for the Caribou-Presque Isle west into northern Piscatquis County. It looks like QPF will be minimal w/amounts <0.05 inches. It will be a breezy day on Friday w/winds of 10-20 mph and some gusts to 25 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps will reach well into the 50s and 60s. The winds will let up by Friday night as high pres starts ridging in from the sw. This will allow for colder air to seep into the region. Overnight lows will be the coldest of the last few nights w/readings by early Saturday morning dropping into the upper 20s across the n and w while central and downeast areas will see low/mid 30s. Pleasant day expected on Saturday w/plenty of sun and temps a bit warmer than Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The above normal temps continue into early next week w/the prospect of some rain by mid week. High pres is forecast to ridge across the New England region into Monday. Upper heights are forecast to rise during this period which means a warming trend. Daytime temps during this time-frame look like they could easily hit the upper 60s to lower 70s and this could be a bit conservative. The trends in the long range guidance has been showing a warming trend over the last few cycles. The large high is expected to slide to the east Tuesday into Wednesday w/a return flow setting up from the Gulf of Mexico. The long range guidance including the ECMWF/GFS and Canadian Global showing a slow moving frontal system moving east across the Ohio Valley w/a series of lows moving up along the front bringing rain to the Northeastern United States. This front appears to pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. This could lead to some decent rainfall for the northern New England region. This would be some needed rainfall for the region. This is still 6 to 7 days out and there is still plenty of time to assess this situation. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Thursday. South to southwest winds will increase Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph developing. SHORT TERM: It looks like VFR right into the weekend w/high pres moving in from the sw. One caveat to this will be Thursday night across the far northern terminals such as KCAR, KPQI and KFVE for cigs to briefly drop to MVFR as a cold front slides across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will be below small craft advisory levels overnight through early Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, starting Thursday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas look like they will stay up in the SCA range into early Friday morning. Winds are forecast to drop off below 20 kts by Friday as winds go nw. Seas could be tricky as the SWAN guidance wants to keep seas up around 6 ft especially out over the outer zones for about another 6 hrs. Attm, decided to carry the SCA out through 09Z(5AM) Friday morning to cover for a delay in the conditions dropping off. Conditions will improve during the day on Friday continuing right into the weekend w/no headlines expected. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Hastings Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt Marine...Norcross/Hewitt

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