-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
534
FXUS61 KCAR 190448
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1248 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the east overnight while a warm front
crosses the region. A cold front will cross the region Thursday
night. High pressure will build across the region Friday
through Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
High pressure will exit to the east overnight while a warm front
begins to cross the forecast area. Clear skies are expected
overnight. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s north, to the mid 30s to lower 40s
Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current
conditions and to slightly lower overnight temperatures across
much of the forecast area.

Original Discussion...
Dry weather continues through Thursday, with warmer and breezy
conditions expected. High temperatures Thursday will range from
the mid to upper 60s across much of the area. Another cold front
will approach from the west late in the day, increasing clouds
and possibly producing a shower or two over the far north in the
evening. Winds will become gusty out ahead of this front; gusts
of 25-30 mph are possible.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still a mostly dry term w/a continuation of above normal daytime
temps.

A cold front is forecast to slide across the region Thursday
night. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show some support for
showers across the northern 1/2 of the CWA w/the best forcing
across the far n and w. The 12z NAM and GEM are in support of
this solution w/keeping the best chances of showers across the
Allagash and St. John Valley. Decided to follow the midnight
crew`s assessment of showing 30% pops across the aforementioned
areas and 20% for the Caribou-Presque Isle west into northern
Piscatquis County. It looks like QPF will be minimal w/amounts
<0.05 inches.

It will be a breezy day on Friday w/winds of 10-20 mph and some
gusts to 25 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps will reach
well into the 50s and 60s. The winds will let up by Friday
night as high pres starts ridging in from the sw. This will
allow for colder air to seep into the region. Overnight lows
will be the coldest of the last few nights w/readings by early
Saturday morning dropping into the upper 20s across the n and w
while central and downeast areas will see low/mid 30s. Pleasant
day expected on Saturday w/plenty of sun and temps a bit warmer
than Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The above normal temps continue into early next week w/the
prospect of some rain by mid week.

High pres is forecast to ridge across the New England region
into Monday. Upper heights are forecast to rise during this
period which means a warming trend. Daytime temps during this
time-frame look like they could easily hit the upper 60s to
lower 70s and this could be a bit conservative. The trends in
the long range guidance has been showing a warming trend over
the last few cycles.

The large high is expected to slide to the east Tuesday into
Wednesday w/a return flow setting up from the Gulf of Mexico.
The long range guidance including the ECMWF/GFS and Canadian
Global showing a slow moving frontal system moving east across
the Ohio Valley w/a series of lows moving up along the front
bringing rain to the Northeastern United States. This front
appears to pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico and
the Atlantic Ocean. This could lead to some decent rainfall for
the northern New England region. This would be some needed
rainfall for the region. This is still 6 to 7 days out and there
is still plenty of time to assess this situation.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region
overnight through Thursday. South to southwest winds will
increase Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph developing.

SHORT TERM: It looks like VFR right into the weekend w/high
pres moving in from the sw. One caveat to this will be Thursday
night across the far northern terminals such as KCAR, KPQI and
KFVE for cigs to briefly drop to MVFR as a cold front slides
across the region.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will be below small craft advisory levels
overnight through early Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters, starting Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas look like they will stay up in the SCA
range into early Friday morning. Winds are forecast to drop off
below 20 kts by Friday as winds go nw. Seas could be tricky as
the SWAN guidance wants to keep seas up around 6 ft especially
out over the outer zones for about another 6 hrs. Attm, decided
to carry the SCA out through 09Z(5AM) Friday morning to cover
for a delay in the conditions dropping off. Conditions will
improve during the day on Friday continuing right into the
weekend w/no headlines expected.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Hastings
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt
Marine...Norcross/Hewitt