Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180707 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 307 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will remain across the region through this morning with some snow possible. High pressure is expected to ridge down across the region this afternoon into tonight.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak area of low pressure will continue to produce snow showers this morning but is expected to move off to the east later in the morning. As the low moves away the snow showers are expected to end by this afternoon with partial clearing, especially across the south. High pressure is then expected to build across the region this afternoon. Later tonight the high will move off to the east with an increase in clouds across the state behind the departing high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridge axis wl be shifting offshore Wed mrng with return flow well- established acrs the area by 12z Wed. Vry wk upr lvl s/wv wl traverse the area drg the mrng hrs and main result wl be an increase in clds early in the mrng. Brief s/wv ridge wl build in Wed aftn ahd of another more substantial trof expected to spread pcpn into the nwrn zones by 00z Thur. An area of pcpn wl mv acrs the area Wed night as H5 trof crosses the state. Ptype looks to be mainly in the form of rain for most of the area. Exceptions wl be in the North Woods and St. John Vly where cooler temps aloft wl work in btwn midnight and daybreak. Possibility exists for btwn 1-2 inches of accumulation ovrngt tho with warming ground temps expect some of this wl melt as it falls. Mins on Thu morning expected to range fm lwr/mid 30s acrs the north and upr 30s in Downeast. Sfc bndry wl cross CWA in the mrng with lingering pcpn shifting into New Brunswick in the aftn. System expected to mv into the area Thu night wl be coming onshore into California today. All med range guidance is in agreement by 12z Fri H5 low and assoc sfc lopres wl be located in the cntrl Great Lks area with overrunning mvg into swrn zones by daybreak. Low temps Thu night wl dip to arnd fzg acrs the North Woods and in the St. John Vly with temps rmng in the u30s acrs Downeast. Most lkly area to see accumulating snows wl be acrs far nrn zones where only chc pops are expected attm.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Drg the day on Friday energy wl be in the process of being transferred off the coast with another low dvlpng in the Gulf of Maine in the evng. Lkly pops are fcst on Fri/Fri night with the expectation that categorical wl eventually introduced but confidence is not high enuf at this time. Cannot rule out svrl inches of snow acrs nrn half of the area late Fri night with srn zones expecting just rain with possibly a brief mix early Sat mrng. Med range guidance disagrees on qpf amnts with GFS indicating 24-hr amnts fm 12z Fri-12z Sat btwn 1-1.5 inches acrs the area while EC only showing ~0.5 inches. Pcpn wl be winding down Sat aftn as coastal low departs to the south of Nova Scotia. Hipres then brings a brief break in the wx thru early next week. Models showing potential for yet another coastal low by mid-week tho significant timing differences abound. Either way northeast U.S. looks to rmn in an active pattern thru the end of the pd.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR conditions this morning giving way to VFR conditions this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected thru Wed before lowering to MVFR Wed evng as system moves in from the west. May see IFR restrictions, especially across the north in -sn, late Wed night into Thur morning. Condition improve on Thu before lowering again late Thur night with IFR expected at all terminals thru Sat morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds. For waves: Current observations from 44027 indicate the primary wave system continues to be long period southerly swell (3-4 feet/8 seconds). This wave group will continue to subside later today and tonight. At the same time an east to northeast wind wave is developing across the Gulf of Maine today and during the afternoon this wave system will become the primary wave system as the long period wave subsides. The wind wave is then expected to also subside late tonight as local winds diminish. SHORT TERM: May see marginal SCA levels with winds gusting to arnd 25kts Wed night ahd of appchg system. Coastal low expected to develop on Friday lkly to result in serly swell thru Saturday abv SCA levels.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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