Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170157 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 857 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Intense low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will slowly drift towards Newfoundland by Friday morning. Weak high pressure will build from the west Friday night and Saturday. Low pressure from northern Ontario will move east towards northern Maine on Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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900 PM Update. Light snow continues along the Aroostook County border with New Brunswick. Updated to add Flurries to zones 1 and 6. Minor adjustments to hrly temps and skycon, otherwise previous forecast remains on track. The low in the Canadian Maritimes and the associated tight pressure gradient on the backside of the low will be the biggest impact on the forecast area tonight into Friday. This tight pressure gradient and steep low level lapse rates will result in continued strong winds through the night...and increasing again in the morning with daytime heating/mixing. The snow showers that have backed into northeastern portions of the forecast area will taper off this evening as the storm pulls further away from Nova Scotia. This will also mitigate issues with blowing snow along the eastern border of the state late this afternoon and evening. The strong winds prompted an increase in lows tonight towards a model consensus. Clouds will gradually erode on Friday from southwest to northeast. This will allow temperatures to exceed the freezing mark around Bangor and the Down East region while nearing 30F will be measured as far north as the Crown of Maine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... No high impact winter weather expected this weekend. A weak surface ridge builds into the area Fri night with dry weather and seasonably cold temperatures. A clipper system moves into western Quebec Saturday afternoon which will cause clouds to thicken up across the northern half of the CWA Saturday with a little light snow to spread from west to east across the area. The clipper moves across northern Maine Sat night with areas of light snow across northern Maine. Any snow accumulation from Sat through Sat night will likely be an inch or two, or less. An upper trough with some shortwaves move through Sun with more clouds than sun and the chance for a couple of snow showers. Temperatures will average a little above normal this weekend, and in fact even far northern Maine in the Saint John Valley may top the freezing mark by Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Again, no high impact weather systems are expected through the middle of next week. An upper trough moves through Sun nigh and is followed by an upper ridge that crests over the area Tue afternoon. Dry weather with temperatures a bit above average through early next week. A weather system is expected to pass well north of the area Wednesday, and will be followed by a potential cold frontal passage by around Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR vis in snow showers and blowing snow will end late this afternoon or early evening for sites north of HUL. The snow showers will linger in FVE longest. After the snow showers end, the predominant condition will be MVFR cigs north of HUL. For BGR and BHB, expect VFR conditions through the period. SHORT TERM: VFR will likely give way to times of MVFR and perhaps brief IFR in -sn at the northern terminals Sat afternoon into Sat night. Conditions should remain VFR at the Downeast terminals. VFR at the Downeast terminals Sun, with MVFR to VFR at the northern Taf sites from KHUL to KFVE. Generally VFR conditions are expected Mon and Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have extended the Gale Warning until 10am Friday morning as the deep low in the Gulf of St Lawrence is expected to cause winds to increase again late this afternoon into the evening. By Friday morning, winds will be decreasing and the gale will likely be transitioned to an SCA for the balance of Friday. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the weekend. There could potentially be a period of marginal low end small craft advisory level wind gusts Sun night into Mon as low pres pulls away and high pres advances toward the waters from the west. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...MCW/CB Marine...MCW/CB

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