Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191627 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1227 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track well south of the region today and tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday. An Arctic cold front will cross the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1225 PM Update: The only sig chg was to raise aftn hi temps a deg or two across the far N based on trends seen from midday obs. The rest of the near term fcst remains the same from the last update. Orgnl Disc: The main challenge will be snow along the Downeast coast and how far will it move inland. The latest radar loop showed light returns off the southern New England coast drying up as they hit the drier air to the n. Temps along the Downeast region have dropped back into the mid and upper teens while some areas to the north, especially low lying areas down in the single numbers. Some low clouds were moving from the ocean toward the coast affecting Hancock County. Latest projections from the RAP and HRRR show some of this cloudiness edging into the Bangor region and back into Piscataquis County. Decided to adjust the sky conditions this morning to account for the clouds. Surface analysis showed high pres to the ne allowing for dry air to hold on today across much of the CWA while low pres moves ne from the southern New England coast today. Clouds will thicken up across the Downeast region today. Temps will warm substantially today w/sunshine early and then level off w/the increasing clouds. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s across the CWA. Precip will edge toward the coast this afternoon in the form of rain/snow at the onset, but as evaporative cooling takes hold, the mix will go to snow. Winds will pick up along the coast out of the ne at speeds of 10 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to track well s of Nova Scotia giving a glancing blow to the coast, mainly Washington County. Snow will continue across the coast through late evening and wind down from sw to ne w/Washington County being the last to see the snow end. The 00Z NAM was the most bullish w/its snowfall showing 3-6 inches for the coast. All the other guidance including the RAP and Canadian GEM keep the highest QPF off the coast and show at best a few inches of snow. Therefore, decided to stay close to the daycrew`s thinking of showing the highest snowfall(up to 2 inches) across eastern and coastal Washington County w/an inch or less for Hancock County. There is a sharp gradient w/the pops dropping off significantly as one travels n. As a matter of fact, from Bangor to the Crown, it looks to be no snow expected. Temps will be milder than they have been the last couple of nights w/readings in the teens and 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... On Monday, a narrow ridge of high pressure will be over most of the area, but low pressure in the Atlantic will likely influence weather in the Down East region...especially Washington County. Have assigned chance pops in that region for Monday into Monday evening...and even likely around Eastport and Lubec. The precip type will be light rain and some drizzle, but will have to watch for some freezing drizzle later Monday night. Monday will be a mild day with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Did reduce highs towards Washington County where cloud cover and some precip is expected. On Monday night, went a bit above guidance for lows due to high clouds and warm air advection. This will set the stage for another relatively mild day on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s north and low to mid 40s for Bangor and the Down East region. An Arctic cold front will cross during the day and destabilize the lower levels with shower activity expected the afternoon and evening along with gusty NW winds. Some squalls with reduced visibility will be possible north of Houlton. On Tuesday night, temperatures will plummet through the night to single digits north and teens south. The winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph most of the night and wind chills will be well below zero later in the night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An Arctic air mass will be in place Wednesday into Friday with gradually moderating temperatures. Have leaned a bit more towards raw guidance for Wednesday`s highs. Wind chills will stay below zero much of the day north of Millinocket, Houlton and Greenville. Single digit wind chills will remain all day for Bangor. There is still a chance of some snow showers on Wednesday, but confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. On Wednesday night, subzero readings will occur in the Allagash and single digits are forecast everywhere else. Highs will increase on Thursday back to the 20s, but radiational cooling will drop temperatures towards the single digits with a few readings near zero on Thursday night. The exact orientation of the high will determine exactly how much radiational cooling will occur. A warm front will move into the area later Friday into Friday night with some light snow. What had previously appears to be a longer duration warming for next weekend is trending quite a bit cooler and now have concerns about mixed precipitation during Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the most part into the afternoon w/the exception for KBGR and KBHB showing MVFR cigs this morning as low clouds push in from the ocean. Northern terminals will hang on to VFR tonight while MVFR conditions expected for the Downeast especially KBHB. KBGR will see brief periods of MVFR. SHORT TERM: Expect predominately VFR conditions Monday through Thursday. There are a few exceptions such as the threat of MVFR cigs towards Machias and Eastport Monday evening and snow squalls north of HUL Tuesday afternoon and evening with tempo IFR vis. One other concern will be NW winds gusting to 30 kts on Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Kept the SCA and Gale Warning in place as ne winds kick in at 25 to 30 kt w/gusts hitting 35 kts. These winds will continue through tonight into Monday morning. Seas will respond accordingly building to a range of 8-10 ft. SHORT TERM: On Monday morning, gale conditions will end and an SCA will likely be needed until about midnight Monday night. Another SCA will probably be required Wednesday into Thursday as a late season Arctic blast hits the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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