Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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614 FXUS61 KCAR 160309 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1009 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight and move east Monday. Low pressure will track north of the region Monday with a weak cold front crossing the area Monday night. High pressure will build back across the region on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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10 PM Update...Temperatures have fallen quickly across the area with readings at 10 PM as low as 10 below in Presque Isle and 8 below in Houlton. Lowered temps overnight. However, some mid and high clouds moving in from the west and an increasing southwesterly gradient later tonight will likely prevent temps from falling much more after midnight. Made some modifications to clouds cover, mostly Downeast early on too. High pressure will build across the region tonight. With diminishing winds and mainly clear skies temperatures should fall pretty quickly after sunset before high and mid cloud begins to increase toward morning. Expect lows across the north to range from 5 to 10 below zero and the single digits above zero to around 10 across central and down east areas. The high will move east on Monday as weak low pressure tracks east across Quebec. An approaching upper level disturbance will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers to northern areas with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies down east. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will range from the low to mid 20s across the north and low to mid 30s down east. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday evening. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the north and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies downeast. Low temperatures Monday night will range from around 10 degrees across the far north and mid teens to around 20 degrees across down east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models are in relative agreement in that Tue will be fair and seasonably cold. Aftwrds, models are only in fair agreement regarding the track of the midwest low as it approaches the E coast on Wed. The GFS conts to be furthest N with its QPF and implied snfl, but even it has backed off considerably from ystdy solution attm. Other models like the ECMWF are further S with the track of the midwest low with little QPF and snfl even ovr Downeast areas. We blended the models, resulting in some lgt sn ovr the SW hlf of our FA and little if any ovr the far NE Wed into Wed ngt with any sn ending as sn shwrs on Thu as a weak nrn stream s/wv from QB crosses Nrn ptns of the region. Sn may mix with or chg to rn alg the Downeast coast Wed aftn and eve due to mild BL temps due to near sfc maritime air. Temps will gradually become milder thru Wed and Thu. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalously strong upper lvl ridging ovr Cntrl/Ern Can...Great Lks and NE U.S. as the TNH teleconnection pattern becomes very negative will result in fair and dry conditions and continued gradually mild conditions Fri thru the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR tonight with light winds. Mainly VFR on Monday with brief MVFR possible in scattered snow showers (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI). SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd Tue and Tue ngt across the TAF sites with conditions lowering to IFR in lgt snfl by erly Wed morn across Downeast sites, gradually spreading N to possibly include Nrn TAF sites Wed aftn into Wed ngt. All sites will improve to at least MVFR clgs with intermittent sn shwrs on Thu, then improve to VFR on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/Seas will continue to diminish below SCA levels this evening and remain below SCA levels through Monday morning. Winds may increase to SCA levels by Monday afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA conditions are likely with increasing E winds and seas Wed and Wed ngt...otherwise...winds and seas will be below SCA criteria. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts ovr These ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCB Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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