Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180022 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 722 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPDATE 1925 EST: A WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TONIGHT. DUAL POLARIZATION DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED THE TRANSITION LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND EAST WEST LINE BETWEEN PORTAGE AND CARIBOU. WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS CORROBORATE THE LOCATION OF THIS TRANSITION LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SCENARIO WELL COVERED. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...THEN TAPER TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF A WINTRY MIX COULD PERSIST EARLY BEFORE TAPERING TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ALONG WITH UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT...THEN FALL SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN QUEBEC WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH SNOWSHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SOME ST LAWRENCE MOISTURE MAY EVEN AFFECT AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. IN FACT...BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE FAST-MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INITIALLY...BUT A FAST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW ARRIVING BY LATE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE PARENT LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. THIS COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW TOWARDS NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE 17/00Z ECMWF AND 17/12Z GEMS IN THIS REGARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRESH ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. A BRISK NW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WINDS WILL DIE OFF EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO OCCUR. HAVE GONE WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH. OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR WARMS ALOFT AND THE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS OVERRUNNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO THIS YEAR`S NOVEMBER ARCTIC INVASION AS RAIN...DRIZZLE...WIDESPREAD FOG AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING ARE ANTICIPATED. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WIPE OUT EXISTING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE STATE. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MVFR NORTH OF HUL AND VFR SOUTH OF HUL. SNSH MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF HUL. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPO IFR IS POSSIBLE IN SNSH FOR ALL SITES. THURSDAY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TEMPO IFR IN SNOW. THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE GALE WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW STRAIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-010. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/OKULSKI SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW MARINE...NORCROSS/OKULSKI/MCW

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