Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 191627
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1227 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
Low pressure will track well south of the region today and
tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday. An
Arctic cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --1225 PM Update: The only sig chg was to raise aftn hi temps a
deg or two across the far N based on trends seen from midday
obs. The rest of the near term fcst remains the same from the
Orgnl Disc: The main challenge will be snow along the Downeast
coast and how far will it move inland.
The latest radar loop showed light returns off the southern New
England coast drying up as they hit the drier air to the n.
Temps along the Downeast region have dropped back into the
mid and upper teens while some areas to the north, especially
low lying areas down in the single numbers. Some low clouds were
moving from the ocean toward the coast affecting Hancock County.
Latest projections from the RAP and HRRR show some of this
cloudiness edging into the Bangor region and back into
Piscataquis County. Decided to adjust the sky conditions this
morning to account for the clouds. Surface analysis showed high
pres to the ne allowing for dry air to hold on today across
much of the CWA while low pres moves ne from the southern New
England coast today. Clouds will thicken up across the Downeast
region today. Temps will warm substantially today w/sunshine
early and then level off w/the increasing clouds. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 30s across the CWA. Precip will
edge toward the coast this afternoon in the form of rain/snow at
the onset, but as evaporative cooling takes hold, the mix will
go to snow. Winds will pick up along the coast out of the ne at
speeds of 10 to 20 mph.
The low is forecast to track well s of Nova Scotia giving a
glancing blow to the coast, mainly Washington County. Snow will
continue across the coast through late evening and wind down
from sw to ne w/Washington County being the last to see the snow
end. The 00Z NAM was the most bullish w/its snowfall showing
3-6 inches for the coast. All the other guidance including the
RAP and Canadian GEM keep the highest QPF off the coast and show
at best a few inches of snow. Therefore, decided to stay close
to the daycrew`s thinking of showing the highest snowfall(up to
2 inches) across eastern and coastal Washington County w/an inch
or less for Hancock County. There is a sharp gradient w/the
pops dropping off significantly as one travels n. As a matter of
fact, from Bangor to the Crown, it looks to be no snow
expected. Temps will be milder than they have been the last
couple of nights w/readings in the teens and 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, a narrow ridge of high pressure will be over most of
the area, but low pressure in the Atlantic will likely influence
weather in the Down East region...especially Washington County.
Have assigned chance pops in that region for Monday into Monday
evening...and even likely around Eastport and Lubec. The precip
type will be light rain and some drizzle, but will have to watch
for some freezing drizzle later Monday night. Monday will be a
mild day with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Did reduce
highs towards Washington County where cloud cover and some
precip is expected. On Monday night, went a bit above guidance
for lows due to high clouds and warm air advection. This will
set the stage for another relatively mild day on Tuesday with
highs in the mid to upper 30s north and low to mid 40s for
Bangor and the Down East region. An Arctic cold front will cross
during the day and destabilize the lower levels with shower
activity expected the afternoon and evening along with gusty
NW winds. Some squalls with reduced visibility will be possible
north of Houlton. On Tuesday night, temperatures will plummet
through the night to single digits north and teens south. The
winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph most of the night and wind
chills will be well below zero later in the night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An Arctic air mass will be in place Wednesday into Friday with
gradually moderating temperatures. Have leaned a bit more
towards raw guidance for Wednesday`s highs. Wind chills will
stay below zero much of the day north of Millinocket, Houlton
and Greenville. Single digit wind chills will remain all day for
Bangor. There is still a chance of some snow showers on
Wednesday, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
forecast at this time. On Wednesday night, subzero readings
will occur in the Allagash and single digits are forecast
everywhere else. Highs will increase on Thursday back to the
20s, but radiational cooling will drop temperatures towards the
single digits with a few readings near zero on Thursday night.
The exact orientation of the high will determine exactly how
much radiational cooling will occur. A warm front will move into
the area later Friday into Friday night with some light snow.
What had previously appears to be a longer duration warming for
next weekend is trending quite a bit cooler and now have
concerns about mixed precipitation during Saturday.
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the most part into the afternoon w/the
exception for KBGR and KBHB showing MVFR cigs this morning as
low clouds push in from the ocean. Northern terminals will hang
on to VFR tonight while MVFR conditions expected for the
Downeast especially KBHB. KBGR will see brief periods of MVFR.
SHORT TERM: Expect predominately VFR conditions Monday through
Thursday. There are a few exceptions such as the threat of MVFR
cigs towards Machias and Eastport Monday evening and snow
squalls north of HUL Tuesday afternoon and evening with tempo
IFR vis. One other concern will be NW winds gusting to 30 kts on
NEAR TERM: Kept the SCA and Gale Warning in place as ne winds
kick in at 25 to 30 kt w/gusts hitting 35 kts. These winds will
continue through tonight into Monday morning. Seas will respond
accordingly building to a range of 8-10 ft.
SHORT TERM: On Monday morning, gale conditions will end and an
SCA will likely be needed until about midnight Monday night.
Another SCA will probably be required Wednesday into Thursday as
a late season Arctic blast hits the waters.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Monday for ANZ052.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for