Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161510 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1110 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build toward the region from the west today and Thursday, and will crest over the area Thursday night. Low pressure in the Great Lakes Region Friday will send a warm front across the area Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11 AM Update. Trended skies clearer through Midday. However, still expected a few cumulus across mainly central and northern areas. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Previous discussion...A cold front will continue to slide southward across the state early this morning and should reach the coast by this afternoon. Drier and cooler air will follow behind the front, allowing skies to become mostly sunny for most locations. However, an upper low will swing down across Ontario and Quebec later today and tonight, keeping at least some cloud cover across the north. Gusty winds are expected this afternoon as cooler air aloft results in good mixing. Highs will range from around 70 in northern Aroostook County to around 80 in Interior Downeast. Tonight...the aforementioned upper low will skirt by to our north, keeping partly cloudy skies across the Saint John Valley. However, low levels will be too dry to allow for any showers. Lows will be in the 40s most locations, though areas Downeast and along the coast will bottom out in the lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low in the western Gulf of Saint Lawrence at 12Z Thu will track east into the northwest Atlantic by Fri morning. As the low pulls away from the region it will be followed by mid/upper level ridging for Thu night into Fri. At the surface, as low pressure exits through the maritimes high pressure builds into the area from the west and crests over Maine Fri morning and then moves east. Low pressure across the northern Great Lakes Region Fri morning will push a warm front into the eastern Great Lakes by Fri afternoon. As far as the sensible weather, it should be nice Thu and Fri with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. A bit more cloud cover in the north Thu as moisture wraps around the departing low and will likely develop a decent Cu field, but any showers would be very isolated at best with almost all areas to be dry. Downslope flow will mean a mostly sunny day Thu toward the coast. A decent gradient between the departing low and building high will lead to a breezy day with a northwest wind of 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts. Dry and comfortably cool Thu night. Fri will feature an increase in clouds with the approaching low, but most of the day will be dry with the best chance of an afternoon shower across the western zones. It will likely remain dry east of the Katahdin Region until after sunset Fri evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front moving through Fri night will likely bring rain to the region with the best chance across the Downeast Region into central portions of the CWA which will likely continue into Sat morning. Any steadier rain should become more showery in nature Sat afternoon. The cold front associated with the system moves through Sat night with a few more showers. An upper trough follows Sun with the chance of a few more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. High pressure follows Mon-Tue with fair weather and it looks like a fairly warm air mass with highs likely to top 80F for many inland areas each afternoon. Most of the longer range guidance brings the next weather system through either Tue night or Wed. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Patchy fog will be the main focus through 12z Wednesday, with local IFR/LIFR possible, especially at the southern terminals. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR Thu and Fri, but with some pockets of high end MVFR possible Thu, mainly across the Saint John Valley at KFVE as a decent Cu field develops. Conditions are expected to lower to IFR in Rain Fri night into Sat morning, especially at KBGR and KBHB, with MVFR and possible IFR at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE. Variable conditions Sat afternoon into Sun, but mostly MVFR to VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas for this evening and overnight. Hurricane Gert passing by well to the south will result in long period south swell of 4-7 ft during this period. A High Surf Advisory is in effect as well. SHORT TERM: The main concern will be long period swell from Hurricane Gert and a small craft advisory has been issued or seas only through Thu afternoon. High surf and rip currents are also expected Thu due to the long period swell. The next potential small craft advisory will be Sat into Sat night ahead of low pressure to the west of the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swell of around 13 seconds will affect the Downeast coast of Maine from this evening through late in the day Thu. The seas will build to around 6 ft on the coastal waters tonight into Thursday morning with the largest component of the seas being long period swell from Gert. High surf will affect the beaches producing rip currents and localized beach erosion. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Hastings/CB Marine...Hastings/CB Tides/Coastal Flooding...CB

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