Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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286 FXUS61 KCAR 261002 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 602 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today. A warm front will move north across the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and winds based on latest observations. Low pressure currently over the Maritimes will continue to move away to the northeast during the day today as high pressure builds in from the north behind the departing low. High pressure will then crest over the State during the early afternoon. The high will then move to the east of New England later today and tonight with clouds moving in from the southwest in the return flow behind the departing high. Showers will then spread across the region from the southwest later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A progressive pattern has settled into place and will continue into the long term. Wet conditions for Friday w/showers as a warm front lifts n across the area. It will be an increasingly humid day w/dewpoints forecast to rise well into the 50s. Showers will exit the region by Friday afternoon as the region gets into a pseud-warm sector. Plenty of llvl moisture remains into the afternoon w/some breaks possible. This would allow temps to rise well into the 60s after a sluggish start to day w/a sse wind and low clouds. Any instability is limited above 4k ft(400 joules)across northern and central areas. PWATS just under 1.00 inch w/decent 0-6km shear of 25 kts. The negative factor is the large area of dry air above 850mbs which would inhibit growth. Given this, decided to keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast for Friday. There is some discrepancy come Friday night as the 00Z NAM shows a cold front sliding se across the region and brings a good area of precip w/it. The ECMWF is similar w/bringing an area of precip across the region but not nearly as heavy. The GFS is slower w/the front and less active. NAM soundings are explosive w/SB CAPE OF 1000+ joules Friday evening and very unstable especially across northern and western Maine. The GFS is not as unstable and it much drier aloft. The NAM historically has been overdoing its llvl moisture. Confidence is not high enough go any more than isolated tstms. Therefore, kept 30-40% chance for shower and isolated storms. Temperatures Friday night will stay in the 50s. The cold front is forecast to stall across the downeast region on Saturday w/high pres sliding across northern Maine from Canada. The atmosphere across the downeast region will be very unstable w/sb capes progged to be 1500+ joules. PWATS of 1.2+ inches w/0-6km shear of 25 kts. So, the potential is there for tstms in the afternoon into the early evening, plus flow is wnw w/no inhibitor from the Gulf of Maine. Afternoon temps will warm to around 80F in the downeast region. Lacking feature is that the low/mid level lapse rates are progged to be around 6.0 c/km deep llvl moisture lacking. This could change w/the later model runs. Decided to add thunder after collaborating w/GYX but left out enhanced wording. Daycrew can assess this further today. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As stated above, pattern remains progressive through this term. Showers and any tstms will be diminishing and moving se Saturday night per the GFS while the ECMWF brings the cold front back as a warm front along w/a decent slug of precip lifting across northern areas by Sunday morning. Since confidence is not high on this setup, decided to take a consensus blend showing 30-40% chance for showers across downeast and sw areas Saturday night and this area lifting ne Sunday into Sunday night. Temps are forecast to warm Sunday night w/the CWA getting into the warm sector on Monday. The ECMWF and GFS are pretty close on this setup w/a sw flow developing ahead of the apchg cold front. Showers and possible tstm on Monday w/drier conditions expected for Tuesday as the cold front clears the region. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions this morning then VFR conditions later this morning through tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR for the terminals on Friday w/improvement to vfr mainly for the BGR site. VFR looks be in the offing for all terminals Friday evening w/the exception of BHB as a s flow could keep IFR conditions. IFR/MVFR returns later Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of a cold front dropping s into the downeast region. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR for all terminals by midday Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: For sustained winds have used the GFS20. For waves: Currently the primary wave system is incoming long period swell from the southeast. The Wave Watch III has a good handle on this wave system with the forecast closely matching observations from 44027. With light winds expected through tonight expect this long period wave system to dominate through tonight with wave heights expected to subside by a foot or so later today and this evening. SHORT TERM: No headlines foreseen through the period. Waves are forecast to build to around 4 ft by Monday as ssw flow takes hold. Sustained winds are forecast to remain below 20 kts through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt Marine...Mignone/Hewitt

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