Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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489 FXUS61 KCAR 252219 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 619 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will remain to our west this week. Occasional disturbances tracking out of this trough and across our area will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6:19 PM Update...Isolated to scattered showers continue to track northeast across parts of the CWA early this evening. A couple of lightning strikes, but thus far nothing too impressive. There likely will be a few thunderstorms this evening, but the chance of anything turning severe is small as MUCape values are mostly less than 300 Joules per the latest SPC Mesoscale analysis page. Will maintain the enhanced wording for small hail and gusty wind, but feel this threat is small and will be very isolated. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast based mostly on the latest observations and radar trends. Previous discussion... Some showers have been popping up this afternoon across northern and western areas as upper jet streak has been enhancing these showers. Satl wv imagery coupled w/the lightning display showed a disturbance move ene w/some lightning activity across southern Quebec and NH. This activity will lift ene into the evening. The latest meso-analysis showed the best instability into the n and w but this looks to change by later in the afternoon into the evening. RAP soundings showed CAPES hitting 400-500 joules across central and western areas w/steep lapse rates and 0-6km shear of 25 kts. Decided to keep enhanced wording(winds/hail) into the evening w/the stronger cells. Activity will wind down across the central and downeast areas later in the evening. More showers and perhaps a tstm for the northern 1/2 of the CWA later on as a cold front residing back across Quebec apchs the region overnight. The best forcing appears to be across northern Aroostook County. Temps will cool down behind the front across far northern and western areas as the front moves across that region Monday morning w/upper 40s to around 50. The rest of the CWA will be in the 50s. The front is expected to slide into eastern areas by mid morning Monday w/showers across the eastern areas. The front is forecast to slide further s during the day on Monday as shown by the NAM GFS and Canadian GEM and weaken. Some weak forcing was noted especially by the GFS to keep some showers going into Monday afternoon across the downeast areas. Decided on 20-30% pops using a blend of the guidance. Rainfall for this term will be 0.10 inch or less except w/any tstms. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level trough and weak surface low will be centered to our west, just north of the Great Lakes Monday evening. The trough will remain to our west through the middle of next week bringing occasional chances for showers. A weak disturbance running out of the trough and across our area late Monday night into Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and some thunderstorms. The most likely focus of the showers will be along a weak surface frontal boundary across the north central part of our area on Tuesday. Showers would likely diminish Tuesday night. However, another similar disturbance kicking out of the Great Lakes trough will come along on Wednesday and bring a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. Central and northern areas look favored again. Forecast capes both Tuesday and Wednesday look similar, around 500 J/KG across the north and a little less Downeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weather disturbance crossing the area on Wednesday will lift away Wednesday night as a small high builds in behind it. The mid- week period will then feature a big, warm and humid high pressure system off the southeast coast and big, cool and dry high pressure system over Hudson bay. A well defined frontal boundary in the trough over the Great Lakes will divide the two and provide focus for convergence. Moisture converging in this front will stream east into our area on Thursday ahead of a large surface low squeezed between the two highs. This will bring a chance for some rain late Thursday into Friday. The boundary may push south late Friday into Saturday before the main body of the surface low lifts north, to our west, late Saturday into Sunday. This has the potential to carry a lot of moisture north along the boundary bringing a chance for a soaking rain over the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Looks like VFR for all terminals into Monday outside of any convection with briefly lower ceilings and visibilities. Across some of the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE as cigs could hit MVFR for a brief time Monday morning w/the arrival of the cold front. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Monday evening may drop to MVFR Monday night into Tuesday, especially across the north, but range between VFR and MVFR Downeast. Conditions should improve to VFR Tuesday night into early Wednesday then drop back to MVFR Wednesday night in lower clouds and showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Beach Hazard remains in place through 00Z(8PM) this evening. Winds were 10 kts w/seas around 4 ft. Winds could pick up a bit on Monday at 15 kts as a cold front apchs from the n. Seas should hold around 4 ft away from the intra-coastal areas. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Monday night through Thursday. Fog may limit visibility across the waters at times. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...CB/Hewitt/Bloomer

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