Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251629 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1229 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO AFFECT THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE DOWN EAST COAST. ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z WED WILL PUSH EAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO CROSS MAINE THU AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT OR OCCLUSION ACROSS THE REGION WED. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLE LESS HUMID AS DEW POINTS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE COOLER NW VALLEYS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE LATE SUMMER DAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...LOWER HUMIDITY...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS IN A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND HAS A SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW THAT WOULD BRING SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE SUNDAY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF KEEP THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND WOULD HAVE A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM IN NW FLOW THAT WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR NORTH AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST IN LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. SHORT TERM: IFR TO LOW END MVFR EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THU INTO SAT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHER TERMINALS INTO THU EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SWANGFS AND LOCAL WAVE MODEL BRING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. && .CLIMATE... THE LOW TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT CARIBOU WAS 66F. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 60F, SET IN 1999. IT IS ALSO THE 5TH RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE EITHER SET OR TIED AT CARIBOU IN THE PAST WEEK. AUG 18TH: LOW 68, OLD RECORD 67, IN 2009 AUG 19TH: LOW 68, OLD RECORD 65, IN 1940 AUG 20TH: LOW 68, OLD RECORD 61, IN 1971 AUG 21ST: LOW 65, TIED RECORD OF 65, IN 2003 AUG 24TH: LOW 66, OLD RECORD 60, IN 1999 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB MARINE...NORCROSS/CB CLIMATE...CB

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