-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150949
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
549 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 0545AM...
CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY AS LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED
FOR THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF
TONIGHT`S OCCLUDED FRONT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT IS JUST
STARTING TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY WITH
GUSTS REACHING OVER 20 MPH TOWARDS BANGOR. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN COOLING TEMPERATURES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BE EXITING THE CROWN OF MAINE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET...A STRONG 50 KT
LLJ AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH FRONT AND
PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES CROSSES THE REGION THU WITH THE MAIN LOW TO CROSS EITHER
THE CROWN OF MAINE OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  STRATIFORM RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE OVER WITH BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THU WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED THU ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF FROM THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
AMOUNT TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH
AMOUNTS TRAILING OFF TOWARD DOWNEAST AREAS. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FRI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THU
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALTHOUGH
SOME STRATOCU MAY LINGER IN SPOTS. A DECENT CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP FRI WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND IT SHOULD SPREAD OUT INTO
A STRATOCU LAYER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
M/U 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S DOWNEAST...AND DID ADJUST
THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DECENT...ALTHOUGH A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE. A COOL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MODERATE SUN AND THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND LOW AND
MID LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RISE SLOWLY AS A RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL. A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA MON AND MON
NIGHT AND WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE WELL
INTO THE 570S (DM) AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT HOVER NEAR ZERO (C) OVER
THE WEEKEND MODERATE TO NEAR +10C BY MON EVENING. THE SFC FLOW
MON-TUE IS LIKELY TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
MUCH COOLER ALONG AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
MON AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TUE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP INLAND TEMPS FROM
GETTING AS WARM AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY...IFR TONIGHT WITH SOME LIFR LATER TONIGHT
FOR BGR AND BHB. LLWS WILL BE A THREAT LATER THIS EVENING FOR BGR
AND BGR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT FL020 REACHING 50 KTS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR BGR AND BHB BY LATER
THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU IN SHOWERS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THU EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. MOSTLY VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS AND SEAS QUICKLY INCREASING TOWARDS 9 FEET. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
ISSUED AN SCA FOR TONIGHT AND ANTICIPATE EXTENDING THE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS DURING THURSDAY. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

SHORT TERM: THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED INTO A SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THU. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB ADVISORY
FRI-SUN WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT BY
FRI MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB