Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141704 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 104 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will move into the area from Quebec this afternoon and stall near the coast tonight. This front will lift back to the north across the region as a warm front as low pressure tracks north of the region Sunday. This same low will then bring a strong cold front through the area Sunday night as it moves northeast over the northern Maritimes.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1245 PM Update: Chgs this update included decreasing cldnss a little ovr ptns of SW and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn and increasing hi temps for this aftn ovr NE, Cntrl and Interior Downeast ptns of the FA based on latest sat imagery and sfc obs trends. Otherwise, no other chgs to the remaining fcst elements attm thru tngt this update. Orgnl Disc: Another breezy day and milder. A cold front will move into the region today and stall across central areas this evening. 1st batch of showers associated w/a trof/pre-frontal boundary have pushed into eastern Aroostook County. The latest run of the RAP and HRRR lining up nicely w/the radar trends. Looks like a break in showers and then another set of scattered showers expected w/the cold front this afternoon. Most of these showers will be widely scattered w/light rainfall amounts < 0.05 inch. 00Z ua showed a decent 30 kt jet across the region from 850-700mbs. Soundings show 0-6km shear at 30+ kts by the afternoon and decided to increase the winds w/gusts up to 25 mph. Clouds will break up later in the afternoon w/some sun possible mainly across the n and w. Daytime temps will hit the 60s throughout the region by the afternoon. For tonight, winds will drop this evening as the front eases in and then stalls. Partial clearing early but then clouds will be back on the increase as the front begins lift back to the n. Added some patchy fog in the forecast for tonight as dewpoints continue on the rise. Temps will drop a bit this evening but then level off w/the clouds. Northern areas will see temps drop down into the mid/upper 40s while further south, temps will be in the 50s. Rain is expected to arrive into western areas after midnight and then gradually overspread the region as the warm front lifts northward. Decent llvl convergence along the front w/a se inflow aiding in some decent rainfall for the northern 1/2 of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will move north of the area Sunday morning. The warm frontal precip should be close enough to the Saint John Valley such that rain is expected in the morning. Patchy fog and low clouds are also expected early Sunday morning in the warm sector. As the warm front moves north of the state in the afternoon, strong and gusty SW winds will emerge over the area. Since the winds are SW, the concern is that low levels will dry up and frontal inversions will dissipate. This will allow mixing to at least the H925 level where LLJ winds of over 50kts will be located. The mixing and threat for 50kt gusts will be from later in the afternoon until a cold front crosses later Sunday night. Downed trees, limbs and power outages are all likely scenarios given that leaves remain on the trees. There won`t be much precipitation with the cold front and thunderstorms are not expected, but the frontal boundary and any showers could necessitate convective warnings as it passes. The prolonged period of stronger wind gusts could prompt a wind advisory for the entire area. At this point, the strongest wind gusts are forecast in coastal Hancock and Washington counties where the strongest part of the LLJ is forecast. After the cold frontal passage, temperatures will be sharply colder on Monday with highs not much above Sunday night lows. The winds will continue all day Monday, but the strongest NW gusts will be in the morning before the stronger winds aloft move east. Residual low level moisture should produce widespread cumulus and stratocumulus fields through the day on Monday. It will be cold Monday night, but winds probably won`t die off and allow any significant decoupling...with the possible exception of the remote western border area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A ridge crests over the area Tuesday with more sunshine and less wind than Monday. The trend for the rest of the week will be fairly dry with moderating temperatures. A fast-moving shortwave will arrive Tuesday night with some showers Tuesday evening. Although temperatures aloft are cold, boundary layer warmth will prevent any snow except at elevation above 2 or 3 thousand feet. Another ridge of high pressure builds Wednesday into Thursday before another fast-moving front arrives Thursday evening with little or no precipitation. High pressure and relatively warm SW winds are expected Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs this morning for some of the terminals this morning such as KHUL and KBGR and KBHB. Expected the far northern terminals to see a period of MVFR cigs over the next3 to 4 hrs. Conditions are forecast to slowly improve to VFR by the afternoon and continue into the evening. A return to MVFR and IFR w/some rain for the northern terminals by Sunday morning. SHORT TERM: Sunday morning will start with MVFR and IFR cigs...especially towards CAR and FVE and coastal sites such as BHB. Winds will become a serious issue Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with gusts that could exceed 50 kts...mostly from the SW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines this term. South winds are expected to increase to 10-15 kts by later this afternoon into tonight. Gusts to 25 kts are expected. Seas of 2 ft are expected to build to 4 ft later tonight. Patchy fog expected tonight. SHORT TERM: A high-end SCA or low-end gale is expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Gusts will reach around 35 kts and seas will increase towards 10-12 feet. SCA conditions will continue into Monday night. Another SCA appears probable later Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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