Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 080404 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1204 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MDNGT UPDATE: WE XTNDED THE RISK OF ISOLD TSTMS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE ERLY MORN WED BASED ON PROJECTED FCST SOUNDINGS OF ELEVATED CAPE MOVG EWRD FROM QB PROV BETWEEN 12-30KFT ABV GROUND LVL TIL ABOUT 12-14Z...AT WHICH POINT...THESE ELEVATED CAPES MOVE INTO NB PROV. THIS APPEARS TO BACKED BY THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN ACROSS THE N. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING SUPPORTS ACCAS TYPE OF CLDNSS IN SUPPORT OF THIS SHWR ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS AND OVRNGT LOWS TNGT WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS FROM 11 PM OBS. PREV DISCUSSION: A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...LEAVING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SPAWN SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EXPECTED WED NIGHT FROM THE CROWN OF MAINE SWRD ACROSS WRN MAINE INTO NRN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF MAINE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTING EWRD ACROSS NB/NS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BREAKS DOWN. ONCE THIS HIGH BREAKS DOWN WE WILL INCREASE SW FLOW THEREFORE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GOING INTO SUNDAY. THESE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT NRN AND WRN MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE COASTAL WATER. SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. DUE TO COLD WATER RESULTING IN A SHALLOW INVERSION...WINDS AND AS A RESULT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN THE WAVE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER BORDERLINE WAVE/WIND CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...RB LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...VJN/RB MARINE...VJN/RB

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