Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171451 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH NUMEROUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND ECWMF TONIGHT FOR HRLY TEMPS/MIN/WND/SKY/AND POP. USED THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...20 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MONDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY DAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/NORTON SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA

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