Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160306 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1006 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east tonight. Low pressure will lift north of the Great Lakes on Thursday. Secondary low pressure will form in southern New England Thursday afternoon. This low will rapidly intensify as it tracks northeast across the Gulf of Maine Thursday night and into the Maritimes early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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540 PM Update: Latest GOES 16 IR sat imagery conts to show low oceanic SC/ST spreading slowly Nwrd from the Gulf of ME now reaching a Bridgewater...Baxter State Park Greenville ln. Meanwhile, the leading edge of hi cldnss conts to move Ewrd now ovr the top of low cldnss as it moves into Ern ME. Otherwise, latest sfc obs were used to make minor adjustments to fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the late ngt to msly unchgd fcst ovrngt lows. Ovrngt lows will likely occur early at some lctns due to the advancement of cldnss ovr the Rgn, counterbalancing radiational cooling. Orgnl Disc: High pressure will slowly move east of the region tonight. The sky will begin clear across the area this evening, then some stratus will spread across the region late tonight in warm advection behind the high. Thursday will then begin mostly cloudy. Some rain will spread across Downeast areas with some light snow over the north as low pressure lifting north of the Great Lakes pulls an occluded front across the area. Precipitation will change to all rain over the region Thursday afternoon. Secondary low pressure will form in southern New England and quickly intensify as it lifts into the Gulf of Maine late Thursday. The low will be supported by a vigorous shortwave rounding the bottom of the trough on Thursday. Rain may become heavy at times in central and eastern areas Thursday night as the low center continues to intensify and lift across the eastern Downeast coast. The big forecast challenge comes very late Thursday night into early Friday morning as the strengthening low lifts north into New Brunswick and pulls colder air into its circulation from the North northwest. Precipitation will change over to snow from northwest to southeast early Friday morning. Significant accumulation is possible before the low continues away to the east on Friday and drier air pulls into the system. The NAM has the potential for over a half a foot of snow across northeastern areas with the GFS showing only an inch or two before the low moves away. Either way, falling temperatures, fresh snowfall, and strong gusty winds will make for a treacherous commute Friday morning. Any snow will taper off to snow showers Friday afternoon as strong gusty northwest winds continue over the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Friday night, winds will continue all night with some gusts up to 25 mph. Temperatures will plummet to the upper teens to lower 20s and moisture on roads will freeze. Stratocumulus fields will tend to continue in the northerly flow north of Houlton, but clearing will occur towards Bangor and the coast. Saturday will start sunny, but high and mid clouds will rapidly increase and thicken during the afternoon in advance of a warm front. Highs will climb to the lower 30s in northern zones and just over 40F for Bangor and the Down East region. These highs will occur late in the day due to warm advection more than diurnal heating. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Saturday night, an occluded front will cross later in the night. Temperatures will warm all night...reaching near 50F on the coast. Precipitation will start as snow for a few hours in northern zones, but warm advection is quite strong with a strong south wind, and ptype will become all rain overnight. Accumulations could reach an inch or two towards northern Aroostook County before changing over and the rain will wash that away. Not too concerned about any freezing rain or sleet issues with warming at the boundary layer rather than aloft and the low now forecast to track to the northwest of Maine. There could be a quick half inch of rain across most of the area with the frontal passage Sunday morning and up to an inch total. This system will be tapping into deep Atlantic moisture as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted Saturday night. The highs for Sunday will occur in the morning and temperatures will tend to fall...with readings going below freezing in the afternoon. Winds will be the most notable feature after the rain ends. Westerly wind gusts could hit 40 mph towards the coast and a few power outages are possible. The cold air advection and winds continue Sunday night as temperatures drop into the lower 20s and winds gust to 35 mph through the night. Snow showers are expected Sunday night and Monday in northern Aroostook County and in the North Woods with wind-blown accumulations under an inch. The cut-off upper low continues spinning in Quebec Monday and Monday night and winds will continue to the primary issue with gusts still reaching 35 mph in a well-mixed layer. Ridging arrives Tuesday with less wind and warmer temperatures. Cloud cover in the northern half of the forecast area will be fairly continuous Monday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system arrives towards Tuesday night and Wednesday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and whether it can tap into any Atlantic/Gulf moisture. Have gone with just slight chance and chance pops for now. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight will lower to MVFR early Thursday morning then IFR later Thursday morning. IFR conditions can be expected Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Conditions will improve to MVFR Friday afternoon, but winds will be strong and gusty out of the northwest possibly resulting and turbulance. VFR conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday morning with conditions lowering to MVFR Saturday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Friday night will be VFR outside of occasional MVFR cigs north of HUL. Saturday will be VFR at all sites. Saturday night will feature conditions deteriorating to IFR due to snow and then cigs/vis. LLWS is a threat Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low cigs continue until frontal passage Sunday morning. At that time, cigs lift to MVFR or better, but strong west winds will gust up to 35-40 mph later Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Low pressure will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across Eastport and into New Brunswick Thursday evening. This will bring a northwesterly gale lasting from Thursday night into Friday night. SHORT TERM: A gale will end Friday night...followed by a brief period of SCA conditions. The next gale begins Sunday and continues into Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW

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