Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150224 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1024 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push down from the north and stall across the area this evening. High pressure will be over the region on Friday. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall north of the area Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1020 PM Update... The cold front is sliding s attm per the latest obs and analysis w/nnw winds and dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s across portions of northern Maine. Frenchville`s(KFVE) dewpoint was at 35F at 10 pm. Further s from Houlton to teh coast, dewpoints were still in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Radar showed some light returns earlier in the evening but have since dissipated. A nice convergent boundary dropping s per the radar loop across Houlton and Millinocket. The air behind this boundary much drier. Satl show some clouds across portions of the n and down into downeast and the coast. Most of this was mid and high level. Sounding data showed the potential for some fog over the coastal areas overnight as temp/dewpoint spread closes in w/some moisture in the blyr. Stayed w/the daycrew`s assessment of fog for the coast and out over the waters. The front will stall right along the coast by Friday morning. Made some tweaks to overnight temps especially further s as the dewpoints stay up some. Previous Discussion... Moisture with the remnants of Irma will then ride south of the stalled front on Friday. Most guidance shows no precip in the forecast area...with the exception of the 14/12Z GFS. The GFS is over forecasting convection today and looks to have the same issue on Friday. Therefore, will leave pops out of the forecast. There will be a lot more cloud cover towards the coast on Friday and highs will be quite a bit cooler than today. Further inland, cooler H850 temps will result in highs about 5 degrees cooler than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm high pressure and a strong upper level ridge will remain over the area Friday night into Saturday. Cool high pressure building into central Canada will push a cold front toward the area on Saturday. However, the front will stall to our north as strong ridging across the northeast keeps the region in a warm air mass. Far northern areas may have an increase in clouds ahead of the front on Saturday while the rest of the region remains mostly sunny. The front will remain to our north Saturday night into Sunday with far northern areas mostly cloudy and central and Downeast areas partly cloudy to mostly clear. There may be a few spotty showers with the front across the far north on Sunday. Elsewhere, skies will be partly sunny as the ridge keeps a warm airmass over the region and continues to hold the front to our north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging and high pressure will keep us in a warm pattern Sunday night into Monday with dry weather. The ridge will remain over the area on Tuesday. However, some moisture ahead of Hurricane Jose may result in more cloudiness, especially along the Downeast coast. The ECMWF and the latest GFS both have Hurricane Jose a couple hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod by midday Wednesday with the guidance taking it east northeast, south of Nova Scotia, Wednesday night into Thursday. It remains too early to tell if the hurricane will directly impact parts of our region. However, it is likely it will at least result in some high surface along the Downeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: The predominant condition will be VFR except along the coast to include BHB. These locations will likely become IFR tonight with fog and low stratus clouds. Elsewhere, there is a slight chance of MVFR cigs towards HUL, PQI and CAR later tonight into Friday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday with the possible localized exception of some patchy valley fog early Saturday morning and again early Sunday morning. VFR conditions are likely on Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Long period south swell continues with seas near 3 feet...and occasionally reaching nearly 4 feet. Winds will continue to be light and fog will likely form tonight and linger into Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Friday night through Sunday. Swell from Hurricane Jose will likely build early next week possibly reaching over 5 ft on Tuesday and higher on Wednesday. The latest long range models are taking Jose southeast of our waters on Wednesday, but possibly close to to result in high surf and a strong northeast wind. It remains too early tell if the storm will have a direct impact on our area. However it is advised that anyone with marine interests closely monitor forecast updates this weekend into next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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