Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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636 FXUS61 KCAR 231550 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1150 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and will be followed by high pressure for Sunday into Monday morning. Another cold front will cross the area Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Noon Update...A line of thunderstorms has organized in southern Quebec and is sliding ESE. Likely these will stray into our western Downeast areas later this afternoon so raised precip chances up to likely in those areas. Isolated thundershowers are beginning to develop over northern areas and will likely expand in coverage. Also raised high temps a few degrees with mostly clear skies raising temps quickly this morning and midday. Orgnl Disc: Models are a little further S with the track of the next s/wv movg ESE from QB into Cntrl and Srn ME. Subsequently, the potential of re-newed shwrs and tstms for our FA this aftn into erly eve will be greatest ovr the middle and srn two thirds of the FA where we go with likely PoPs, and lesser chc PoP across the N and even only slgt chc across the St John Vly. With lower fzls and low 0-6km bulk shears, the primary enhanced tstms element threats will be hail and heavy rn. Hi temps this aftn will be cooler than ystdy by 5 to 10 deg F, with cnvctv initiation being helped by cooling Alf. Max aftn SBCAPES will range from about 300 J/kg ovr the St John Vly to about 1200 J/kg ovr the far SW ptns of our FA. Shwrs and tstms should diminish and/or move E of the FA aft mid eve with the passage of the upper trof E of the region and the loss of dytm htg, with at least prtly clrg late tngt. Ovrngt lows Sat ngt should be cooler then this current ngt by about 5 deg F, with enough NW grad wind to prevent patchy late ngt fog.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the region Sunday with dry weather and a partly to mostly sunny sky. The humidity levels will be moderate by mid to late July standards. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the north to the mid 80s in the Greater Bangor Region. Dry and comfortable Sun night with lows in the 50s north to around 60 Downeast. Low pressure will move into western Quebec Monday and a pre-frontal trough will move into western Maine during the afternoon with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. It will become a little more humid with highs in the low 80s north to the mid-upper 80s Downeast. A sea breeze will keep temperatures cooler along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front associated with the low in Qubec will cross the area Monday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to push off the Downeast coast Tuesday morning with any showers ending. A mid to upper level trough could touch off an isolated shower through mid afternoon across the Crown of maine. Dry and relatively comfortable humidity levels for the middle of the week. The next cold front will approach Thursday with an increase in humidity and the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. There are timing differences between the models and model ensembles with the passage of the cold front late week and it remains uncertain as to whether it pushes through Thu night or Friday. There will be the chance of showers and storms, but if the front can push through Thu night, Friday could be mainly dry and turn less humid. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: msly VFR xpctd at the TAF sites tdy and tngt. xcptns will be brief MVFR and IFR erly this morn in patchy fog and tstms and heavier shwrs this aftn into erly eve. SHORT TERM: VFR Sun into Monday with MVFR or short duration IFR in showers and storms Mon night into early Tue. VFR expected Tue into Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 535 AM Update...we lowered the SCA for haz seas ovr our outer MZs based on latest obsvd buoy wv hts of arnd 4 ft at Jonesport and Ern ME Shelf. Orgnl Disc...Will let the SCA for haz seas for our outer waters cont thru this update, but xpct to end it by the next update prior to 7am, with buoy obs from Jonesport and Ern ME shelf already showing obsvd wv hts subsiding to arnd 5 ft. Aftwrds, winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru the remainder of tdy and thru tngt. Again, we only went with about 75 percent of WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through the middle of next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCB Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...VJN/CB Marine...VJN/CB

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