Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 251938 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 338 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT, AS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF STRATUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, STARTS TO REDEVELOP AND ADVECT BACK TOWARD THE DOWN EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARD THE AREA. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC BNDRY LOOKS TO ENCROACH ON MAINE FM THE WEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. FORWARD PROGRESS IS ESSENTIALLY HALTED AS IT HEADS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT AS H8 FLOW WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT ANY HINT OF BNDRY. S/WV IN H5 FLOW WL PUSH THRU BTWN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXITING OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME. FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AFT THIS TIME AND SRLY FLOW AT SFC WL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDS TO ENTIRE CWA THRU 12Z MON. AREAS OF FOG WL LKLY DVLP AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN DRIZZLE WITH LTR UPDATES. SFC TROF SNEAKS SLOWLY IN FM CANADA DRG THE DAY MON WITH NAM OVERDONE, AS USUAL, WITH CAPE VALUES APPCH 3000 J/KG. GFS IS TAMER WITH CAPES SOMEWHERE ARND 700 J/KG TO AS HIGH AS 1000 OVR DOWNEAST ZONES ASSUMING SHOWERS CAN DVLP THAT FAR RMVD FM BNDRY. THUS, HV LIMITED THUNDER TO THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTERIOR HIGHLANDS AFT 18Z MONDAY WITH JUST SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EARLY MRNG HRS WL START OFF WITH AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST AS SRLY FLOW CONTS TO PUMP MARINE LAYER IN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. EXPECT FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 16Z MON. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WL WARM TO NR/SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL IN THE M/U 70S ACRS THE NORTH TO ARND 80 OVR DOWNEAST. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO SLIP THRU LATE MON NGT/TUE MRNG WITH CHC FOR LOCHC SHOWERS OVRNGT INCRSG TO HICHC TWD 18Z TUE. FRONT WL WORK ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS, MAINLY OVR SERN ZONES THRU THE AFTN TUE AND EXPECT THUNDER CHCS TO INCRS AS UPR LVL WV ROTATES ACRS CWA. HIGHS ON TUE WL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MON ACRS THE FAR NORTH AS BNDRY WL HV ALREADY MVD THRU IN THE MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT, AND WED THRU THU AM ACTUALLY LOOK QUITE NICE ACROSS THE CWA AS A SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THU PM AND THU NIGHT, WITH CHC POPS INTRODUCED FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THAT TIME. LIKELY TO BE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT, SO THUNDER WAS PUT IN THU PM THRU FRI PM. FRONT LIKELY BEGINS TO CLEAR THE CWA LATE FRI AM, THOUGH SLGT CHC AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER TROF SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC TROF OR WEAK SECONDARY FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SOME SHWRS LATER SAT, BUT POOR MODEL AGREEMENT KEPT ANY WIDESPREAD CHC OR LKLY POPS OUT OF THE CWA. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY WED AND THU THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND S`LY WINDS THU AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A HIT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF THE DECREASE IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT NOT TOO SEVERE. HOWEVER, IF THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP AROUND FRI INTO SAT, THAT COULD HURT TEMPS POST FRONT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR TOWARD MORNING IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN LGT SHOWERS, FOG AND DRIZZLE AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM THRU MON MRNG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON NIGHT/TUESDAY ACROSS TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS BEHIND FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.