Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 211010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
Warm high pressure will build over the region Today. Low pressure
will track east of the Gulf of Maine Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM Update...Lowered temps a bit, mainly downeast early this
morning. Cut back on cloud over over the far north where skies
are still clear and lowered dew points just a bit over the north.
Otherwise, no major changes this hour.
A warm upper level ridge of high pressure combined with weak
surface high pressure to the south will set the stage for a very
warm day today with summer like high temperatures. The morning
will be mostly sunny. The main forecast challenge will be the
effects of a weak cold front approaching from the north. As this
front approaches later today and tonight, a bit of moisture will
begin streaming north into the front from the Mid-Atlantic trough.
Some cumulus, and isolated cumulonimbus will bubble up this
afternoon ahead of this front. A few spotty showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm may affect western and northern areas
during the afternoon as a function of heating and the beginning of
some weak frontal surface convergence. Capes are up to 300 J/KG
across the north this afternoon. The frontal boundary will
continue to moisten tonight and clouds will increase. Some spotty
showers will be possible overnight, especially across the central
highlands where moisture will be streaming along the line of
convergence associated with the front. Otherwise, tonight will
turn out mostly cloudy and mild.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across central
portions of the forecast area Sunday while surface low pressure
tracks east of the Gulf of Maine. Upper level low pressure will
remain across the Mid Atlantic region. The stalled front and low
will bring rain to the forecast area Sunday. High pressure will
begin to build south across the region Sunday night, while the
surface low weakens and drifts slowly east. Could have a chance
of showers across northern areas early Sunday night, with mostly
cloudy skies overnight. Shower chances will decrease across
Downeast areas. High pressure builds across the region Monday with
partly sunny skies across northern areas. Partly/mostly cloudy
skies are expected Downeast Monday with a slight chance of
showers early. Another surface low and the upper low will begin to
lift north Monday night. Expect partly cloudy skies across
northern areas Monday night, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance
of showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal levels
across northern area Sunday, with below normal level temperatures
Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels across
northern areas Monday, with near normal to below normal level
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. The
surface/upper low will slowly lift across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday with a chance of showers. A developing warm front will
begin to lift north across the region Thursday with a chance of
showers. The frontal boundary remains across the region Friday
while low pressure approaches from the west. Shower chances will
increase Friday...with a steadier rain possible. Temperatures
are expected to be at near normal, to above normal, levels Tuesday
through Friday. However, temperatures Thursday/Friday will be
dependent on the location of the warm front.
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight,
although a few spots may lower to MVFR in lower clouds late
tonight, especially across central spots.
SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the
region Sunday into Sunday night, though conditions will begin to
improve across northern areas Sunday night. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible Downeast Monday...with VFR conditions
north. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible north Tuesday with
MVFR to LIFR conditions Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across the entire region Wednesday.
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA today
and tonight. Some patchy fog may be over the waters late tonight
as surface moisture increases.
SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to begin reaching Small Craft
Advisory levels later Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are then expected Sunday night into Monday night.
Visibilities will be reduced in rain Sunday, with showers Sunday
night into early Monday then again later Monday night.