Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021146 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... FOG IS DISSIPATING DOWNEAST. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM. OTHERWISE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY...SLOWLY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DRY AND WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRAZE NORTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COMFORTABLY LOW DEWPOINTS. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, BUT LOOKS LIKE ITS TIMING WILL HOLD OFF THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL SUNDAY. STILL, PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH IN CASE ITS TIMING SPEEDS UP A BIT. SATURDAY THE 4TH LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. A TOUCH MUGGIER THAN FRIDAY, BUT STILL PRETTY COMFORTABLE. DRY SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE INFERIOR DAY OF THE TWO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE (PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES) AND WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S). THE CATCH IS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH IS AND EXACTLY WHERE THE COLD FRONT SETS UP, WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS AND WHAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THEY FORM. FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO WHERE MONDAY WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY LIKELY DRY AS WELL. WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND SOME PLACES POSSIBLY WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WE GET INTO A JUICIER AIRMASS, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH FOG...THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOW IMPROVING...WITH RESTRICTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY DUE TO CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY, BUT PREDOMINATE VFR SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR ENDED AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND TIED FOR THE 7TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. JUNE WAS A COOL MONTH AND RANKED AS THE 5TH COOLEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND 12TH COOLEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY CLIMATE...BOGEL

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