Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180557 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 157 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will remain nearly stationary across northern Maine overnight. A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday and will be followed by a stronger cold front Friday. Weak high pressure will build into the area Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... An upper level trof will approach from the west overnight. Will have scattered/isolated showers across mostly western and northern portions of the forecast area overnight. Could also have an isolated thunderstorm across west-central areas. Low clouds and fog have already reached Downeast areas and will expand northward through the remainder of the night. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from around 60 to the lower 60s across the forecast area. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and shower chances. Previous Discussion... For Tuesday...the weakening upper trough will finally swing across the region, producing yet another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across the north and west. Instability doesn`t look nearly as good as what we`ve seen over the past couple of days, so don`t anticipate any strong storms. However, with plenty of moisture to work with, locally heavy rainfall will be a threat. Highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80 in most spots, with the coast in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mid level trough axis along the Maine/NB border late Tue afternoon moves east into NB Tue evening and is briefly followed by a weak ridge. Any thunderstorms Tue evening should end with the loss of daytime heating. The threat of showers will diminish too, but with a mild and muggy air mass an isolated shower can`t be ruled out through late evening. There will likely be some areas of fog, especially over the coastal waters and along the Downeast coast. On Wednesday, a weak surface trough moving into Maine will provide the focus for isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. As a weak trough moves to the Downeast coast Wed night and there could be just enough convergence and moisture around for an isolated shower. Once again there will likely be areas of fog around, most widespread along the coast. Very brief surface ridging is expected for Thu morning ahead of an approaching cold front that will be organizing to the west across Quebec during the afternoon. As the front draws closer to the region in the afternoon the chance of showers and storms will be on the increase, especially across northern and western portions of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front is expected to cross the area later Thu night into Fri with showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the frontal passage and cloud cover will be important factors as to whether any of the storms can become strong or severe. The front pushes off the coast Fri evening and is followed by drier/cooler air Saturday. The next system across the Great Lakes begins to approach Sun with the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across the northwest half of the CWA, but it is possible that any activity could hold off all day as there remain timing differences between the models and model ensembles. The system coming in from the Great Lakes will likely produce some showers and the chance of thunderstorms Sun night and Monday along with a more humid air mass. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR/VLIFR conditions with low clouds and fog will occur Downeast overnight, with conditions lowering to similar levels across central and northern areas. Conditions will improve Tuesday morning. Generally expect VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon, though variable conditions will occur with any showers or thunderstorms. SHORT TERM: Conditions will be variable. Mainly VFR at the northern terminals, but briefly lower conditions are expected in any fog at night/early morning and in showers and t-storms. At KBHB there will be times of VLIFR in low cloud/fog, especially at night and early morning, with mainly VFR from the mid morning hours into the early evening. AT KBGR, mainly VFR during the day and evening, but with IFR possible in low cloud/fog late night and early morning. VFR expected at all the terminals Sat.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in dense fog overnight through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week. The biggest concern will be for areas of locally dense fog at times until the cold front pushes through later in the day Friday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Norcross/CB Marine...Norcross/CB

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