Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 251636
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1236 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
High pressure will build down from central Canada today into
tonight and crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will
approach from the west Sunday night into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update 12:35 PM: Minor adjustment to hrly temps and skycon,
otherwise previous forecast remains on track.
Strong high pressure is currently building in from the
northwest and will approach the region from the through today
bring partly to mostly sunny conditions to the State today and
clear skies tonight. The high will crest over the region during
the early afternoon Sunday then move off to the east.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hipres wl be cresting ovr the CWA on Sunday with sunny skies
and just a tad cooler than normal temps expected. Next system wl
appch fm the southwest Sun night with pcpn beginning to enter
into CWA aft 06z Mon. Ptype looks to start off as snow at onset
with cold air damming scenario lkly drg the mrng into the aftn
hrs. Warm advection aloft expected with swrly H8 flow bringing
H8 temps to btwn +2 and +4C acrs swrn zones Mon aftn per latest
NAM. Rmng med range guidance is cooler with H8 temps and wl lkly
keep all snow thru the day. Unfortunately NAM tends to do the
best in mixed precip scenarios and hv sided more twd this soln
with some wiggle room with mention of sleet included as well drg
the mrng as cold lyr looks to be approx 3- 4kft thick blo warm
Wl hv time to refine fcst as we appch event but all in all looks
like mixed precip for the coast starting Mon morning and all snow
acrs the St. John Vly at the same time. Wintry mix wl transition fm
south to north throughout the day. Maxes for the day expected to
range fm the lwr 30s acrs the north back thru the Central Highlands
to arnd 40 along the coast.
Wk wv wl track thru the Gulf of Maine Mon night with cold air
damming lkly continuing thru the end of the short term. Thus, mixed
pcpn wl lkly continue thru Tue mrng and possibly into Tue aftn as
well. Appears that winter wx advisories wl be needed beginning Mon
mrng thru Tue mrng for parts of the region.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect pcpn to continue thru the day Tue ahd of sfc bndry mvg acrs
nrn zones. Med range guidance begin to differ significantly on Wed
with EC and CMC weaker and further north and east with H5 trof as
compared to GFS. For the time being hv dropped pops blo Superblend
for Tue night into Thur and based on this think that Thur night and
Fri wl be mainly dry under upr lvl ridge axis. Temps thru the end of
the week wl be near normal with no major cooldowns in site.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight.
SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Sunday, eventually lowering to MVFR
late Sun night at BHB and BGR. Northern terminals will lower to
MVFR before daybreak Mon morning with all sites IFR into Tue in
mixed precipitation. Some improvement expected Wed afternoon for
Update 6:40 AM: Wave heights at 44034 and 44027 have now fallen
below small craft advisory criteria, so the SCA has been
NEAR TERM: The NAM was used to populate the wind grids. For
waves: currently wave heights are running 6 and 7 feet with a
period of 8 seconds. The current wave system was generated in a
southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine during the last 24
hours. Since this fetch was confined to the Gulf of Maine wave
height should subside rapidly this morning. A new northerly wind
wave system will develop over the waters today and persist into
tonight as high pressure passes to the north. Wave heights in
this fetch will be a function of fetch distance off-shore. Will
use the Near Shore Prediction System for waves which will work
well with an off-shore wave system.
SHORT TERM: Expect seas and winds to remain below SCA levels
thru Monday before a southeasterly swell brings waves above 5
feet ahead of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Maine Mon
night into Tue morning.