Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281956 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 356 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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INITIALLY...THE LEADING EDGE OF RNFL WAS SLOW TO ADVC FROM DOWNEAST AREAS TO THE FAR NE DURING THE LATE MORN TO ERLY AFTN HRS...THEN THE FORWARD SPEED PICKED UP SOMEWHAT AS OF MID AFTN...SO WE XPCT EVEN THE FURTHEST N ST JOHN VLYS TO BE IN STEADY RN BY 5 TO 6 PM EDT. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVIER RNFL RATES WILL MOVE E INTO NB OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES ENE OUT OF OUR FA. THIS WILL LEAVE LIGHTER DEFORMATION BAND RNFL FOR MSLY CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE OVRNGT PD...WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS GRADUALLY SEE STEADY RN TAPER TO SHWRS AND DZ BY THE LATE NGT HRS. LGT RN AND SHWRS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST ACROSS THE N MONDAY MORN...WITH IMPROVING...DRIER CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA FROM DOWNEAST AREAS MON MORN TO EVENTUALLY THE FAR N BY LATER MON AFTN...WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT. AFT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS OVRNGT...THE DISTRIBUTION OF HI TEMPS MON AFTN WILL BE OPPOSITE (BUT MORE TYPICAL) THEN THIS AFTN WITH NRN AREAS BEING COOLEST...AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH SOME AFTN SUN A LITTLE WARMER...ALTHOUGH THE AREA AS A WHOLE WILL BE STILL SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL HI TEMPS FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. WINDS FROM MOSG25.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EVERY FEW DAYS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH INTERVALS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR AT START OF PERIOD BUT BEGIN TO DIFFER AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...SO OPTED TO STICK WITH SUPERBLEND LATE IN PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MODERATION DAY WITH A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY WIND TO A LIGHT BREEZY CONDITION AND A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN AND DZ OVRNGT THEN BACK TO MVFR LATER MON MORN INTO MON AFTN WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS. DOWNEAST SITES WILL REMAIN IFR CLGS AND/OR VSBYS IN STEADY RN...INTERMITTENT SHWRS AND DZ OVRNGT...IMPROVING TO MVFR MON MORN THEN TO VFR MON AFTN AS SHWRS MOVE NE OUT OF THIS PTN OF THE REGION. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO CHGS IN CURRENT HDLNS. WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE APCH OF THE COASTAL LOW ARE JUST RAMPING UP NOW. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED OVR MZ051...WITH THE CURRENT GLW TO BE REPLACED BY AN SCA FOR MID EVE INTO THE OVRNGT. WENT WITH WW3 WV HTS...XCPT 1 TO 2 FT HIGHER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVE TO BACK THE SRF ADV. NO HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST MUCH PAST ERLY MON MORN WITH BOTH WVS AND SEAS XPCTD TO SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 THEN TRANSITION TO SUPER BLEND WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT LOCAL WINDS EXPECT ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW ON THE 28TH TO CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. THIS WAVE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO SUBSIDE FROM ABOUT 6 FEET/10 SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT TO 3-4 FEET/10 SECONDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN AT 28/1200Z TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WVS ARE NOW CURRENTLY RAMPING UP. WE DID EXTEND THE SRF ADV A COUPLE OF MORE HRS TO MDNGT OVR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY BASED ON LATEST NESTED HIGH RESOLUTION WV MODEL DATA. WVS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050-052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ051. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

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