Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221435 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 935 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 0930 EST: ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND... DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY W/READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 20S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED W/THE LOW. FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A DISTURBANCE APCHS FROM THE W. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FEATURE W/SOME STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK WAA IN THE LLVLS IS ALSO NOTED. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE W/BRINGING SOME LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE BUT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE W OF MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER. USED A CONSENSUS APCH AND DELAYED THE THICKER CLOUD COVER TIL SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE, W/THIS SETUP, THINKING HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR N AND W BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE 5 TO 10 DEGREES W/LESS CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS QUEBEC AND MAINE. THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS OUR DOWNEAST ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTLINE TO RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN. HOWEVER ABOUT 10 MILES IN FROM THE COAST THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...EXCLUDING THE GFS...ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT A MVFR DECK COULD SET UP LATER TONIGHT AFTER 02Z AS SOME MOISTURE COULD GET TRAPPED BELOW 2K FT. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY SCT015 FROM KBGR NORTHWARD TO COVER FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER IF NEEDED. SHORT TERM: LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY DOWNEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THIS TERM. LOW PRES PASSING WELL S AND E OF THE REGION WILL BRING SOME HIGHER WAVES INTO OUR WATERS BUT BELOW 6 FT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 20 KTS AND THIS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE052 W/A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT TO 10 KTS AND 3 FT RESPECTIVELY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...MIGNONE/ MARINE...MIGNONE/

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