Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191655 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the Great lakes will build to the southern New England Coast Wednesday. A much drier air mass will filter into the region today and will remain in place through the middle of the week. The air mass will begin to turn more humid Thursday as the flow turns into the southwest. A cold front will cross the area Friday night or Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1255PM Update...No changes. Still expecting increasingly windy conditions today as the mixing layer deepens. The combination of cirrus and cumulus will produce variable clouds in northern zones. Low dew points and humidity will go with highs in the upper 60s north and 70s further south. The warmest temps will be around Bangor and the Down East coast where the offshore flow and downsloping will be in place. Still might be a brief sprinkle this afternoon towards Moosehead Lake with the upper trough passage. Previous discussion... A preview of early fall today in the wake of a strong cold front that has now pushed off the coast. Highs today will be more typical of mid September across far northern Maine where highs will not get out of the 60s. It will be warmer with m/u 70s toward the coast. Bufkit soundings have very steep lapse rates below 800H with wind speeds of around 25 knots at 5 ft agl that will mix down to the ground in the form of gusts. Expect a windy day with sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and perhaps a few gusts to 35 mph across the higher terrain of northern Maine. The atmosphere will begin to decouple toward sunset, but with a gradient between low pressure in Labrador and high pressure in the eastern Great lakes some wind will remain, especially across the elevated and more exposed terrain. A few valley locations may see the wind go very light or calm at times. If the wind can go calm spots such as Estcourt Station could even drop into the 30s. Today will be partly to mostly sunny Downeast, but sunshine will give way to a variably cloudy sky this afternoon in the far north and west with an isolated shower possible over the higher terrain in the far west as an upper trough axis approaches late in the day. The upper trough pushes east tonight with a clear sky downeast and clear to p/cloudy in the north. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The region will be under broad northwest flow aloft through the middle of the week with ridging to our west. As such, expect dry weather and partly to mostly sunny skies to prevail much of the period. Model guidance brings a weak shortwave through late Wednesday afternoon, but with dry air in the low levels, don`t expect much other than a shower or two over the higher terrain in the North Woods. Another upper disturbance associated with a weak warm front moves through late Thursday. The low level flow turns from north to southwest by Thursday afternoon, and this in turn allows moisture to increase with dewpoints rising to near 60. So expect a better, albeit still low chance of some showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly over the north. Wednesday`s high temperatures will mainly be in the mid and upper 70s with a few interior Downeast locations flirting with 80, while overnight lows will be in the 50s. Thursday will be about 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday once the warm front lifts through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... We`ll see a return to muggier weather as we head through the end of this week and into next week. The weather will remain unsettled as well as a series of upper disturbances slide across the region. Although the long range guidance doesn`t agree on extent, timing, or placement of precipitation, we should have at least a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms each day through Monday. Highs will be near or above seasonal normals, but the bigger impact will come from the overnight lows staying in the 60s owing to the higher dewpoints. In particular, Thursday and Friday nights look the most muggy and uncomfortable. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours. A WNW wind will gust to 25 knots today. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday through Thursday morning as high pressure settles over the area. Then the state will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as a warm front crosses the region. Unsettled weather will remain through the weekend. Although VFR should be the rule, localized IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Any fog early this morning will give way to unrestricted visibility. SHORT TERM: High pressure will build across the waters Wednesday and Thursday, keeping conditions dry and below Small Craft Advisory levels. Gusts of 15-20 kt will be possible each afternoon and seas will mainly be 2-4 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...MCW/Hastings Marine...MCW/Hastings

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