Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 191655
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016
High pressure in the Great lakes will build to the southern New
England Coast Wednesday. A much drier air mass will filter into
the region today and will remain in place through the middle of
the week. The air mass will begin to turn more humid Thursday as
the flow turns into the southwest. A cold front will cross the
area Friday night or Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1255PM Update...No changes. Still expecting increasingly windy
conditions today as the mixing layer deepens. The combination of
cirrus and cumulus will produce variable clouds in northern zones.
Low dew points and humidity will go with highs in the upper 60s
north and 70s further south. The warmest temps will be around
Bangor and the Down East coast where the offshore flow and
downsloping will be in place. Still might be a brief sprinkle this
afternoon towards Moosehead Lake with the upper trough passage.
A preview of early fall today in the wake of a strong cold front
that has now pushed off the coast. Highs today will be more
typical of mid September across far northern Maine where highs
will not get out of the 60s. It will be warmer with m/u 70s toward
the coast. Bufkit soundings have very steep lapse rates below 800H
with wind speeds of around 25 knots at 5 ft agl that will mix
down to the ground in the form of gusts. Expect a windy day with
sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and
perhaps a few gusts to 35 mph across the higher terrain of
northern Maine. The atmosphere will begin to decouple toward
sunset, but with a gradient between low pressure in Labrador and
high pressure in the eastern Great lakes some wind will remain,
especially across the elevated and more exposed terrain. A few
valley locations may see the wind go very light or calm at times.
If the wind can go calm spots such as Estcourt Station could even
drop into the 30s. Today will be partly to mostly sunny Downeast,
but sunshine will give way to a variably cloudy sky this afternoon
in the far north and west with an isolated shower possible over
the higher terrain in the far west as an upper trough axis
approaches late in the day. The upper trough pushes east tonight
with a clear sky downeast and clear to p/cloudy in the north.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will be under broad northwest flow aloft through the
middle of the week with ridging to our west. As such, expect dry
weather and partly to mostly sunny skies to prevail much of the
period. Model guidance brings a weak shortwave through late
Wednesday afternoon, but with dry air in the low levels, don`t
expect much other than a shower or two over the higher terrain in
the North Woods. Another upper disturbance associated with a weak
warm front moves through late Thursday. The low level flow turns
from north to southwest by Thursday afternoon, and this in turn
allows moisture to increase with dewpoints rising to near 60. So
expect a better, albeit still low chance of some showers and
thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/evening, mainly over the north.
Wednesday`s high temperatures will mainly be in the mid and upper
70s with a few interior Downeast locations flirting with 80, while
overnight lows will be in the 50s. Thursday will be about 5
degrees warmer than Wednesday once the warm front lifts through
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We`ll see a return to muggier weather as we head through the end
of this week and into next week. The weather will remain unsettled
as well as a series of upper disturbances slide across the region.
Although the long range guidance doesn`t agree on extent, timing,
or placement of precipitation, we should have at least a chance of
showers and/or thunderstorms each day through Monday. Highs will
be near or above seasonal normals, but the bigger impact will come
from the overnight lows staying in the 60s owing to the higher
dewpoints. In particular, Thursday and Friday nights look the most
muggy and uncomfortable.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours. A WNW wind will gust to 25
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday
through Thursday morning as high pressure settles over the area.
Then the state will see increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as a warm front crosses the
region. Unsettled weather will remain through the weekend.
Although VFR should be the rule, localized IFR conditions will be
possible in any thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. Any fog early this morning will give way
to unrestricted visibility.
SHORT TERM: High pressure will build across the waters Wednesday and
Thursday, keeping conditions dry and below Small Craft Advisory
levels. Gusts of 15-20 kt will be possible each afternoon and seas
will mainly be 2-4 ft.