Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160511 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1211 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND INTO TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1210 AM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH LITTLE FLOW, THERE`S LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GO ANYWHERE. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES A TAD AS THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HANGS ON. THE INVERSION COULD STRENGTHEN SOME TONIGHT KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN DESPITE THE RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH W/SOME RIDGING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES UPWARD GIVEN THIS SETUP. THE MESOSCALE NAM GUIDANCE WAS DOING A FINE JOB IN HANDLING THIS SETUP. 12Z UA SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING AND THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ESE FLOW SETTING UP ON TUESDAY W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP(LIGHT SNOW) POSSIBLE EXPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE MORNING. A COASTAL FRONT POISED TO SET UP WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD SET UP FOR DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE W/TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE BLYR AND THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ATTM, DECIDED TO GO W/A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. THE LATER CREWS CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE. NAM12 GUIDANCE LOOKED THE BEST FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOWING A WARMER SCENARIO ESPECIALLY ON OVERNIGHT MINS TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S MAXES FOR TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE MIXED AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TAKES OVER THE CIRCULATION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT COLD AIR DRAINAGE TO CHANGE MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW IN THE NORTH. NOTE: SOME GFS MODEL DATA NOT AVAILABLE....OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WHERE GFS NOT AVAILABLE HAVE USED ONLY ECMWF. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. PREFER TO USE NAM12 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DURING STORM EVENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT.... HOWEVER EXPECT CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND LOW MAY KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING ON INTO THE EVENING AND COULD ACTUALLY STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS W/THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE ESE ON TUESDAY BUT STAY AROUND 10 KTS W/SEAS AROUND 2 FT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET/6 SECONDS AS LOCAL SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL VEER INTO A SOUTHERLY SWELL WEDNESDAY (5 FEET/8 SECONDS) AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATER FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LATEST REPORTS ARE THE ICE JAM REMAINS LOCKED UP ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE. THE RIVER IS FLOWING AND HIGH. NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED ATTM. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, PERSONS ALONG THE AROOSTOOK SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL EITHER THE ICE FLUSHES OUT COMPLETELY OR THE RIVER REFREEZES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...

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