Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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799 FXUS61 KCAR 220736 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 336 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure developing south of the area today will pass to the east of Nova Scotia tonight. High pressure briefly builds into the region Sunday morning. A cold front will move into northern Maine Sunday evening and will dissipate across the Downeast Region Monday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Steady snow has all but exited nrn zones as of 07z. Rain/snow mix has made it as far south as BGR with all rain to the south of there. This appears to be the dividing line btwn rain and snow with predominant snow just to the north as evidenced by webcams from Milo and all rain to the south. Intermittent snow showers expected acrs the north this mrng as s/wv and assoc sfc low/bndry lurk back to the west ovr Quebec. Bndry lyr temps wl warm just enuf to allow most areas to mix with and eventually switch ovr to rain in the aftn. Hvg said that not much of a diurnal range expected under extensive low-lvl moisture with maxes only in the m/u 30s acrs the CWA. Expect patchy fog throughout the day as well with areas of fog expected drg the course of the ovrngt as winds go calm just ahd of the bndry thru daybreak. As winds increase shortly aft daybreak expect fog to bcm more patchy in nature and eventually dissipate by 12z. May see an additional inch of snow, especially in the North Woods, bfr accumulating snows come to an end by 18z. Thus current end time of existing Winter Wx Advisory looks to be good so no changes needed. Have had to bump up storm totals by an inch or so as heavy snowfall rates fell last evng with 4-5 inches falling in a 5-hr period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Sunday will by far be the nicest day of the weekend. Low pressure pulls away from the Maritimes as high pressure builds into the Gulf of Maine. A cold front will approach the Saint Lawrence River Valley toward evening. The day will likely start with a good deal of cloud cover, but the clouds will give way to a mostly sunny afternoon south of the katahdin Region. To the north, a mix of clouds and sun are expected by afternoon. It will be dry and milder than recent days, and with the low level thermal ridge across western Maine areas in northern Somerset County into northwest Aroostook County may end up a few degrees milder than the northeast zones. Highs will likely come close to 50 degrees across the Crown of maine, and low to mid 50s in the Greater Bangor Region. The cold front pushes into northern Maine Sunday evening and moves south and east into interior Downeast by 12Z Monday morning. The moisture with the front dries out as it pushes into northern Maine, but there will likely be a few rain showers in the evening that could briefly end as wet snow around midnight, but with little/no accumulation. It looks like the threat of showers making it south of Millinocket is slim. Monday will be a day of temperature contrasts across the State with much cooler temperatures across far northern Maine and much milder to the south. Highs will range from the low to mid 40s across the Saint John Valley, but it could come close to 60 degrees in Bangor.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Attention turns to low pressure that develops off the Virginia coast Tuesday that lifts northeast and will spread some rain into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. There remain differences between the models as far as the timing of the rain and the amount of QPF that falls. Far northern Maine may even remain dry during the day Tuesday with the best chance of rain across the Downeast Region. Rain will likely fall across most of the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday. The air mass is mild enough that the precipitation will fall in the form of all rain, with no snow this time. The concern will be the amount of QPF that falls as rivers are already running high and the ground is saturated in many areas. An upper trough and frontal passage follows for Thursday with a few more showers, and looks to be followed by dry weather and above average temperatures Friday. The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook has very high 500H heights of 570 dam, which is 150 dam above average for this time of year. The air mass will be warm enough that 70s and even 80s are possible by next weekend, but the low level flow in most of the operational models is more out of the south, which would mean a marine influence that would limit the potential warming; but if the flow were to be more out of the west/southwest it could get quite warm.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR across northern terminals in low cigs at HUL, CAR and FVE next 24 hours. Expect cigs will lift to low MVFR at PQI after 12z. Any -sn will likely mix with rain early in the afternoon for northern terminals. After 21z VCSH is expected at all northern sites thru end of taf valid time. At BGR and BHB, expect MVFR today along with ocnl IFR. Light rain expected thru at least mid-morning. SHORT TERM: Low ceilings with IFR/MVFR to start the day Sunday will give way to VFR. Another period of MVFR is possible at the northern terminals later Sun evening into Sun night as a cold front crosses the region with some showers. VFR will likely persist at KBGR and KBHB. VFR should return to the northern terminals by Mon morning, with VFR conditions gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR from south to north across the region late Tue into Wed as rain overspreads the region from the south.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Extended small craft advisory until 18z this afternoon before winds and seas drop below SCA levels. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. Areas of fog are possible Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front from the north. The next potential small craft advisory will arrive sometime later Tuesday as low pressure begins to move up the coast from the south.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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A total of 4.1" of snow was observed at Caribou, Maine yesterday. This broke the daily snowfall record for 4/21 of 1.5", which was set in 2011 and also in 1940.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Farrar/CB Marine...Farrar/CB Climate...CB

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