Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 242212 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 612 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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612 PM UPDATE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY AND COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MIXING. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING, WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR AN UPDATE ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE FRONT MAY ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUED, AND THE PRECIP FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NOW LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. DID KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR COASTAL DOWN EAST, BUT THAT`S IT. THE NOSE OF A SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER N-CENTRAL CANADA AND A DEEPENING RETROGRADING UPR LOW OVER QUEBEC AND NEWFOUNDLAND WILL ACT TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THAT LOW FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE RAIN CHCS ARE DECREASING DOWN SOUTH ON TUE, THEY ARE INCREASING UP NORTH WED, AS THAT RETROGRADING UPR LOW MAY THEN SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. ALL AVAIL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS UPR LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CWA, AND MOST SHOW AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHWRS POPPING UP AS WELL. KEPT IT TO SCHC FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF THE TREND CONTINUES. OVERALL, A BLEND OF THE PRVS FCST AND A CONSENSUS OF MODELS SEEMED TO DO WELL FOR POPS, SKY, AND WINDS, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FROM THERE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS, WHICH WILL BE ABT 10 DEG BELOW NRML UP NORTH, AND ABT 5 DEG BELOW NRML DOWN SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRECIP CHANCES UP NORTH WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE UPR LOW OVER ERN CANADA WEAKENS. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE BEYOND FRI. THE GFS SHOWS THAT UPR LOW ROTATING BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS SAT INTO SUN. HWVR, THE ECMWF SHOWS A BIT OF AN UPR RIDGE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE GRT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO BOUNCE THAT UPR LOW EAST TOWARD GREENLAND. GENERALLY KEPT POPS BELOW CHC THRESHOLDS FOR NOW, GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT, BUT SLIGHTLY INCLINED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH THEN SHOW A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FAR NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT A NW WIND OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESUME AGAIN BY MID MORNING MONDAY. SHORT TERM: PSBL MVFR CIGS FOR KBGR AND KBHB ON TUE AS LOW PASSES TO SOUTH, ESPEC IN ANY ISO SHWRS FOR KBHB. MON NIGHT INTO TUE REMAINS VFR UP NORTH. SITUATION MAY THEN FLIP WED, AS THE SOUTH CLEARS NICELY, BUT UPR TROF WILL LEAD TO SOME BKN OR OVC SKIES UP NORTH WED AM INTO WED NIGHT. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS PSBL FOR KHUL THRU KFVE, WITH THE RISK GREATEST UP TOWARD KFVE, WHERE SHWRS ARE MOST PSBL. THINGS CURRENTLY LOOK CLEAR FOR ALL SITES THU INTO FRI.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO POPULATE GRIDS. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM THIS WAVE GROUP ARE A FUNCTION OF FETCH DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. THERE ALSO A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL PRESENT (AROUND 1 FOOT/8 SECONDS). AS WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT EXPECT THE LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO BECOME DOMINATE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE STATED THAT THERE WERE SOME WILDFIRES THAT GOT GOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE GREENVILLE AREA AS WELL AS WASHBURN IN NORTHERN MAINE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH RHS CLIMBING BACK UP AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND W OVERNIGHT BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO DAMPEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND FINE FUELS. IN COLLABORATION WITH THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE AND WFO GRAY THE PLAN IS TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 7 PM, BUT WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP < 20 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS THAN TODAY, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN TODAY. THE FINE FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE AND THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EVBERY BIT AS HIGH AS IT WAS TODAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-005- 006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/KREDENSOR MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/KREDENSOR FIRE WEATHER...HEWITT/CB

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