Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 192016 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 316 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. THE SKY HAS CLEARED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY TRICKY TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFTS FORECAST AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO BE EITHER MUCH WARMER (MORE CLOUDS) OR COLDER (IF IT WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT). SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPER BLEND. SUPER BLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS POCKETS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND 25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME... HOWEVER COINCIDENCE OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE CLIMATE...CB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.