Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 111138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
638 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017
An occluded front will cross the region today. Low pressure will
track northwest of the area Thursday. A strong cold front will
cross the region Friday. High pressure will then build across the
region through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --630AM update...The strongest winds will end in the next three
hours. Did increase gusts inland for this afternoon as a rather
deep mixed layer will act on strong winds aloft. Gusts over 35 mph
will be widespread early this afternoon. Snow is now retreated to
the Saint John Valley, but will leave the winter weather advisory
up for now as we evaluate the effects of the rain falling on cold
ground surfaces in the next two hours.
The warm occlusion is generating a wide variety of eventful
weather early this morning. Will maintain the existing headlines
to include the winter weather advisory in northern zones. Heavy
wet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will occur within the area.
The boundary layer has warmed above freezing for much of the area,
but temps aloft continue to be cold enough to support snow. The
snow will taper off early this morning...exiting the St John
Valley by mid-morning. Have continued to mention freezing rain due
to the cold ground surfaces rather than any elevated warm layers.
The core of the 75kt H925 LLJ ahead of the occlusion will move
across the warning/advisory areas from around 6 to 10 am with the
strongest winds. Although a lot of power outages have already been
reported, it seems likely that the 6-10am window will be much
worse. The mixing looks like it could be deep enough to tap into
some 60kt winds aloft near the coast in this time frame. These
winds may down some trees and cause property damage.
Unfortunately, these high winds and some rough seas will
correspond with a high tide just after 9am and could cause some
coastal flooding issues.
The front will cross the area this morning and leave relatively
mild conditions in its wake for this afternoon. With decreasing
clouds, highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s in Aroostook
County and approach the upper 40s to near 50F along the coast.
With the resident moisture, mild temperatures and clearing skies,
some fog could develop this evening with black ice. Lows tonight
will likely occur at midnight or earlier. These readings will be
in the mid to upper 20s north and lower 30s for Bangor and the
Down East region. Any fog will tend to transform to low clouds
after midnight as southerly winds increase. With the rising
temperatures and cloud cover, the black ice threat will recede.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track across northern Maine Thursday through
early Thursday night. The low will draw a cold front across the
region Thursday night, with a stronger cold front crossing the
region Friday. Generally expect rain across the region Thursday,
though pockets of freezing rain could briefly occur across
mostly northwest areas early. The rain then tapers to showers
early Thursday night before ending across much of the region.
However, snow showers will linger across the north and mountains
overnight. Partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of snow
showers will occur across the north and mountains Friday with the
cold front, with partly/mostly sunny skies across the remainder of
the forecast area. Gusty west/northwest winds, up to around 35
mph, are expected across the region Friday. High pressure will
build east toward the region Friday night with decreasing clouds
across the north and mountains with mostly clear skies across the
remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at above
normal levels Thursday into early Friday, then fall in the wake of
the cold front Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure crosses the region Saturday into Monday with
generally partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the forecast
area. High pressure then moves east Monday night into Tuesday
with increasing clouds. Temperatures will be at below normal
levels Saturday/Sunday. Near normal level temperatures are
expected Monday, with above normal level temperatures Tuesday.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions in snow will occur north of HUL
until mid-morning. Terminals south of HUL will be IFR due to cigs
and occasionally heavier rain until mid-morning. Rain falling on
cold rwy surfaces may result in icy conditions and reduced RCRs
this morning. This will most likely be a concern from BGR
northward. LLWS will be an issue through this afternoon at all
terminals. Towards BHB, winds at FL020 will exceed 60kts this
morning. By this afternoon, all terminals will be MVFR...and
become VFR by evening. The VFR conditions will be short-lived as
IFR cigs are expected to develop before midnight across the entire
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region in
rain and patchy fog Thursday into early Thursday night. Occasional
MVFR conditions will persist across the north and mountains later
Thursday night with VFR conditions developing Bangor and Downeast.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and
mountains Friday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected
across the region Friday into Sunday. Gusty west/northwest winds
up to around 35 mph are also expected across the region Friday.
NEAR TERM: Will leave the storm warning in place. The strongest
winds will occur between now and 9am and then steadily decrease
while becoming southwesterly. Seas will reach up to 16 ft this
morning. Gale conditions will continue until midday and a small
craft advisory will necessary this afternoon and evening. By
tonight, no headlines should be needed.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are expected
Thursday into Thursday night. Gale conditions are then possible
Friday into Friday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain
Thursday into early Thursday night.
An astronomical high tide will occur at 913 am for Bar Harbor.
This is expected to coincide with quickly building southerly winds
and seas. The result will likely be some minor splashover and
erosion at the usually susceptible coastal sites such as the Deer
Isle Causeway, Seawall Road, Schoodic Point and Machias. A coastal
flood statement has been issued from 13z-15z Wed to account for
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ015>017.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052.