Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240200 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1000 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly build toward the region through Monday as low pressure over the eastern maritimes slowly moves east into the open north Atlantic. Low pressure from the great lakes will then slowly approach the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 945 PM Update: Only minor chgs to fcst cld cvr, hrly temps, and ovrngt lows from last update based on trends seen from erly to mid eve sat imagery and sfc obs. Otherwise, the rest of the fcst including the the frost adv ovr NW ME remains unchgd. Orgnl Disc: As skies have begun to clear up north, temps in the northern part of the CWA have actually increased post-cold front. However, this will be short-lived, and a significant drop in temps is expected overnight. Patchy frost is likely in the North Woods tonight, and it may extend east toward the St. John Valley and northeastern Aroostook. However, did back off on the frost a touch and bumped up expected lows by a degree or two up north due to very strong 925mb winds and possible patchy cloud cover, both of which could act to limit inversion strength, decoupling, and decrease in the winds. Valleys and other protected locations stand the best chance of decoupling and having temps drop low enough for frost. The frost potential was the most challenging part of the forecast, and will need to be monitored closely. Temps will be a good deal cooler than normal tonight thru Sat. Lows will range from mid-30s in the North Woods to the mid-40s at the coast, and highs Sat will be from the low 50s up north to the low 60s Downeast. Otherwise, high pres building in from Canada should bring dry weather and partly to mostly sunny skies to the state. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad cyclonic flow over the state for this period with northwest flow firmly established. Temperatures will run below average with 850mb temps running close to freezing for most of this period. Saturday night will be cold again with lows down into the 30s and low 40s. It could be colder but it looks like a low-level stratus deck with advect in across the region capping radiational cooling. Sunday that low level stratus deck will remain in place across the north, with partly cloudy skies closer to the coast on Sunday. It will be a brisk day though with gusty northwest winds dropping the wind chill down into the 40s north and 50s Downeast. There could be a few sprinkles across the Northwoods and the County during the afternoon, but it will remain mostly dry. Another cold night on Sunday night with clouds diminishing in area coverage. This should allow some Northern locations to get down into the lower 30s with upper 30s across Interior Downeast and the Penobscot valley region. Monday looks like a nice fall day with shortwave ridging at all levels developing. High clouds will be streaming in towards the end of the day with highs rebounding back towards normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging across the area will bring a mostly clear and tranquil night Monday night with some patchy valley fog likely by early Tuesday morning. Our focus will then be on a rapidly approaching occlusion running out ahead of a low in the great lakes. Clouds will increase Tuesday morning and a band of rain will likely cross the area during the midday and afternoon. However, the latest ECMWF has the front moving through earlier in the day Tuesday so the timing remains uncertain. The occlusion may slow down as it reaches the eastern part of our region on Wednesday. This could prolong rainfall in eastern areas on Wednesday. Otherwise, Wednesday will be cloudy to partly sunny following the frontal passage. A large ridge of high pressure is then expected to build into the area going into the latter part of the week. This should bring mostly sunny and dry weather Thursday, Friday, and possibly into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: After a very challenging environment with low stratus, rain, and mist playing havoc with TAFs for much of the day, dry air moving in is leading to improvement at all sites. A few sites are still holding on to MVFR CIGs as of publication time, but all sites are expected to shift to VFR conditions by the evening. Anticipate VFR conditions at all sites thru Sat evening. SHORT TERM: Some MVFR cigs possible across the northern TAF sites on Sunday afternoon, but no impacts to KBHB/KBGR. Winds could be gusty on Sunday afternoon out of the northwest, but gusts will remain below 25mph. Monday looks to be an excellent aviation day. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: N-NW`ly winds will remain a bit elevated early tonight as cooler air filters in behind the recent front. Wind gusts may exceed 20kts at times, but based on 925mb winds, expect gusts to remain below SCA limits. Conditions calm down later tonight into Sat. SHORT TERM: Winds will be offshore Saturday night through Sunday night with gusty NW winds. Gusts should remain below 20kts through the period, with waves building close to 5 feet across the outer portions of zone 051 and 051 on Sunday. Winds will subside along with seas during the day on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-003- 004. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Dumont Marine...VJN/Dumont

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