Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 111138 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 638 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will cross the region today. Low pressure will track northwest of the area Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630AM update...The strongest winds will end in the next three hours. Did increase gusts inland for this afternoon as a rather deep mixed layer will act on strong winds aloft. Gusts over 35 mph will be widespread early this afternoon. Snow is now retreated to the Saint John Valley, but will leave the winter weather advisory up for now as we evaluate the effects of the rain falling on cold ground surfaces in the next two hours. Previous discussion... The warm occlusion is generating a wide variety of eventful weather early this morning. Will maintain the existing headlines to include the winter weather advisory in northern zones. Heavy wet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will occur within the area. The boundary layer has warmed above freezing for much of the area, but temps aloft continue to be cold enough to support snow. The snow will taper off early this morning...exiting the St John Valley by mid-morning. Have continued to mention freezing rain due to the cold ground surfaces rather than any elevated warm layers. The core of the 75kt H925 LLJ ahead of the occlusion will move across the warning/advisory areas from around 6 to 10 am with the strongest winds. Although a lot of power outages have already been reported, it seems likely that the 6-10am window will be much worse. The mixing looks like it could be deep enough to tap into some 60kt winds aloft near the coast in this time frame. These winds may down some trees and cause property damage. Unfortunately, these high winds and some rough seas will correspond with a high tide just after 9am and could cause some coastal flooding issues. The front will cross the area this morning and leave relatively mild conditions in its wake for this afternoon. With decreasing clouds, highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s in Aroostook County and approach the upper 40s to near 50F along the coast. With the resident moisture, mild temperatures and clearing skies, some fog could develop this evening with black ice. Lows tonight will likely occur at midnight or earlier. These readings will be in the mid to upper 20s north and lower 30s for Bangor and the Down East region. Any fog will tend to transform to low clouds after midnight as southerly winds increase. With the rising temperatures and cloud cover, the black ice threat will recede.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will track across northern Maine Thursday through early Thursday night. The low will draw a cold front across the region Thursday night, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday. Generally expect rain across the region Thursday, though pockets of freezing rain could briefly occur across mostly northwest areas early. The rain then tapers to showers early Thursday night before ending across much of the region. However, snow showers will linger across the north and mountains overnight. Partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of snow showers will occur across the north and mountains Friday with the cold front, with partly/mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Gusty west/northwest winds, up to around 35 mph, are expected across the region Friday. High pressure will build east toward the region Friday night with decreasing clouds across the north and mountains with mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Thursday into early Friday, then fall in the wake of the cold front Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure crosses the region Saturday into Monday with generally partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the forecast area. High pressure then moves east Monday night into Tuesday with increasing clouds. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Saturday/Sunday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Monday, with above normal level temperatures Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions in snow will occur north of HUL until mid-morning. Terminals south of HUL will be IFR due to cigs and occasionally heavier rain until mid-morning. Rain falling on cold rwy surfaces may result in icy conditions and reduced RCRs this morning. This will most likely be a concern from BGR northward. LLWS will be an issue through this afternoon at all terminals. Towards BHB, winds at FL020 will exceed 60kts this morning. By this afternoon, all terminals will be MVFR...and become VFR by evening. The VFR conditions will be short-lived as IFR cigs are expected to develop before midnight across the entire area. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the region in rain and patchy fog Thursday into early Thursday night. Occasional MVFR conditions will persist across the north and mountains later Thursday night with VFR conditions developing Bangor and Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Friday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Friday into Sunday. Gusty west/northwest winds up to around 35 mph are also expected across the region Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will leave the storm warning in place. The strongest winds will occur between now and 9am and then steadily decrease while becoming southwesterly. Seas will reach up to 16 ft this morning. Gale conditions will continue until midday and a small craft advisory will necessary this afternoon and evening. By tonight, no headlines should be needed. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are expected Thursday into Thursday night. Gale conditions are then possible Friday into Friday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Thursday into early Thursday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... An astronomical high tide will occur at 913 am for Bar Harbor. This is expected to coincide with quickly building southerly winds and seas. The result will likely be some minor splashover and erosion at the usually susceptible coastal sites such as the Deer Isle Causeway, Seawall Road, Schoodic Point and Machias. A coastal flood statement has been issued from 13z-15z Wed to account for splashover. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>006-010. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ015>017. High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Storm Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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