Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161012 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will enter northern Maine from Quebec this afternoon and stall over the forecast area tonight. The front will lift back north in the form of a warm front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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610am update... Dense fog advisory issued as visibility of one quarter mile or less is reported for much of the advisory area. The advisory ends at 9am when the fog will be rapidly burning off. Previous discussion... A warm humid air mass is entrenched over the area this morning with areas of fog. The fog will burn off early this morning, but will be slower to dissipate along the coast where light winds will be onshore. The relatively warm morning lows will serve as a springboard to potentially the warmest day of this month to date. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s for most of the area and the humidity will continue with dew points in the low to mid 60s. A few afternoon readings in the upper 80s cannot be ruled out. This represents a bit of an increase from recent forecasts. Relief from the heat will come in the form of afternoon thunderstorms with the cold front. The cold front will be positioned across northern zones this afternoon to serve as a trigger and source of moisture. Dew points in the low to mid 60s will be found along the front. The timing of the frontal arrival will coincide with max afternoon heating and SBCAPE looks pretty impressive compared to what we`ve seen this season to date. While the NAM looks overdone on the CAPE as often occurs, there should still be sufficient CAPE to produce some storms reaching towards the trop. This leads to two concerns. First, there will be steep low level rates and favorable DCAPE readings. As a result, have added gusty wind back into the forecast for zones north of the Katahdin region. The second concern with the bigger storms are the relatively low freezing levels that could support hail. This led to reintroducing mention of hail into the afternoon forecast in the same area as the gusty winds. On the other side of the ledger, mid-level lapse rates don`t do much to build the case for significant hail and shear is minimal for storm organization. Storms will wind down this evening and areas of fog will again be the focus of attention during a warm and humid night. Lows will be mostly in the lower 60s. Fog could be dense along the coast tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weakening low pressure will approach from the west Monday drawing a stalled frontal boundary back north across the forecast area in the form of a warm front. Will have increasing shower chances Monday morning, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening. The remnants of the surface low along with an upper level trof then approach later Monday night keeping a chance/slight chance of showers across the forecast area along with mostly cloudy skies. The upper trof crosses the region Tuesday into Tuesday night with a chance of morning showers then a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Will have a chance/slight chance of showers later Tuesday night along with partly/mostly cloudy skies. With light onshore winds, could also have areas of fog at times along the Downeast coast Monday into Tuesday night. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will begin to approach the region later Wednesday then cross the region Thursday. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday in advance of the front. Another cold front and upper level disturbance could cross the region Friday with a chance of showers. High pressure should cross the region early Saturday, with uncertainty regarding possible low pressure which could begin to approach the region later Saturday. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Wednesday/Thursday with near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Fog and IFR cigs will burn off early this morning. It will slowest to dissipate along the coast at sites such as BHB. Afternoon thunderstorms up to FL350 are possible this afternoon and some could be severe...most likely north of HUL. Areas of fog will form again tonight. Once again, the coast will have the LIFR/IFR conditions earliest and most consistently. SHORT TERM: Variable conditions could occur with any showers or thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, with the better chances of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Variable conditions could also occur with any fog which will be most persistent and extensive along the Downeast coast. Otherwise, generally expect VFR conditions across the region Monday into Wednesday. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Thursday though showers are still possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Warm, humid air over the cold waters is expected to ensure fog through tonight with light winds and seas 3 feet or less. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Monday through Tuesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Monday through Tuesday night. Could have a slight chance of showers Monday, with a chance of showers Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002-005- 006-011-015>017-029>032. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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