Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271019 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 619 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest today and stall across the region tonight into Thursday. The front will push further south Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 620 am update... Quick update to update hrly t/td values. Hv removed most of the patchy fog mention for rmndr of the morning as it has not materialized in most places. Expect mosunny this mrng acrs the area bfr slowly clouding up drg the aft acrs the north. Thinking with regard to storm dvlpmnt is still the same. Prev discussion blo... Current sfc analysis places high pressure up the spine of the Appalachians with ridge axis nosing into CWA as of 06z. Cdfnt is dropping into Quebec fm James Bay with regional Canadian radars showing showers and an isold tstorm approx 150 miles north of Ottawa. Timing of cdfnt is much slower than previously thought with projected arrival time to international border well aft 00z tonight and even closer to 06z. Tda wl be the warmest day of the week with sw flow drawing in H9 temps on the order of +21C acrs nrn zones. Dwpts wl rmn in the lwr 60s with projected highs in the l/m 80s this aftn. Convective temps progged to be in the lwr 80s and expect that storms wl begin to fire acrs the Crown of Maine after about 18z as diurnal htg maximizes. Hv dropped pops down to just isold until aft 21z where tstorms could become more sctd in cvrg. Frzg levels of around 10kft combined with 35-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear may lead to small hail along with gusty winds, mainly for northern Aroostook this aftn into evng. Expect a dry and sunny day for Downeast as temps appch the 90- degree mark. Capping inversion arnd 600mb wl prevent storms fm developing. As the evng wears on expect pcpn to dwindle to just isold showers due to loss of htg. Patchy fog wl be a possibility once again tonight as front wl take it`s sweet time mvg into the CWA and eventually stalling out as guidance indicates sfc low wl ride up along the bndry sometime in the mrng. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A trough of low pressure will be over Eastern Canada on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure remains along the coast. A weak cold front will be stalling across the central part of our region on Thursday bringing a mostly cloudy sky and showers. Soundings are showing capes over 1000 J/KG, so a chance of thunderstorms, supported by some weak surface convergence and cooling aloft, will be included during the afternoon. A very weak upper level shortwave may also enhance cooling aloft a bit and support thunderstorm development on Thursday. As the shortwave pushes east Thursday night, it will push the front a bit further south. The front will reach the coast overnight Thursday night and stall along the coast on Friday. this will bring a chance of showers and some thunderstorms to Downeast areas Friday while northern areas have partial clearing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The front along the coast will push offshore Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday will turn out a bit cooler and drier across the area with sunshine mixed with fair weather cumulus clouds. Sunday will be sunny to partly cloudy and comfortable with high pressure over the region. Dry and seasonably warm weather should prevail Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure takes residence just to our south. A frontal boundary across eastern Canada will be nearby to the north and may allow a thundershower to stray into far northern areas either afternoon. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR expected today outside of localized low MVFR/IFR restrictions in fog this morning. Northern terminals may see -shra/-tsra this afternoon into evening but confidence is too low to include in terminal forecasts, with the exception of FVE, at this time. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions can be expected on Thursday in variable low clouds and some showers. MVFR conditions may persist Downeast Thursday night into Friday with an improvement to VFR across the north. VFR conditions are likely in high pressure over the weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through tonight. Fog will reduce visibilities once again late tonight over the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds and Seas are expected to remain below SCA Thursday through the weekend. Fog will likely reduce visibilities over the waters Thursday through Friday morning as a result of warm humid air over the colder waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Farrar/Bloomer Marine...Farrar/Bloomer

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