Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170745 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to the east combined with a large area of low pressure to our west will keep us in a moist southerly flow through the weekend. A cold front will slowly approach on Monday and cross the area Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Rn shwrs across the far N are movg ENE out of the Rgn erly this morn, while rnfl from a more Srn system is affecting Downeast areas with rnfl, particularly alg the immediate coast where mdt rnfl is occurring attm. Given that latest radar cvrg of ref is trending msly offshore with heavier rnfl, we may remove the mention of hvy rnfl possible ovr coastal land lctns in our next update. Otherwise, the trend should be toward drier as shwrs diminish and end ovr N and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn later this morn, and this aftn ovr Downeast areas, albeit more humid air conditions. Temps, which will still be below seasonal norms, should recover about 10 deg warmer for highs this aftn compared to ystdy with breaks in the ovc across the N behind a weak warm occlusion as sfc dwpts advc upwards well into the 50s to arnd 60 deg ovr inland low trrn lctns by erly eve. With contd llvl warm/moisture advcn tngt, low cldnss alg with patchy to areas of fog will re-advance SE to NW across by late tngt, with abv avg, warm ovrngt lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A large and slow moving area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will keep us in a humid southerly flow of air on Sunday with increasing humidity. Some patchy drizzle or light showers are possible. Otherwise, the day will be mostly cloudy but rain free. Fog will likely affect coastal areas as the humid air moves over the colder waters. Sunday night and Monday will remain mostly cloudy, warm, humid and breezy. A cold front slowly pressing in from the west will bring increasing chances for showers in western areas on Monday. Some thunderstorms will also be likely, especially across the far west over the higher terrain, as the front pushes in.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be likely Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front slowly presses across the area. Precipitable water will be close to 2 inches and some heavy downpours will be likely. The front will push east of the area Tuesday afternoon as drier air begins to move in. High pressure building to the south will then bring dry and seasonable weather on Wednesday. Looking toward the end of the week, the upper level flow will be zonal as a Bermuda high feeds warm and humid air north into the flow. Disturbances moving west to east in the flow will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms with one disturbance moving through on Thursday and another late Friday or Friday night.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR to low MVFR conditions are prevailing across the Rgn erly this morn. Conditions will improve to high MVFR of VFR across Nrn TAF sites this aftn, but will likely remain MVFR at KBGR and IFR at KBHB with Srly winds bringing marine fog to coastal Downeast areas. All sites are likely to to become IFR or low IFR ovrngt tngt as dwpts cont to rise with cont`d warm/moisture advcn into the Rgn from the SSW. SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions will likely persist Sunday through Monday in variable low clouds and some fog. IFR conditions in rain early Tuesday will likely improve to MVFR Tuesday afternoon, and possibly VFR late. VFR conditions are likely in drier weather on Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SCA winds or wvs never materialized late last ngt with a stable marine invsn keeping stronger winds alf from reaching the water sfc. Wvs have increased some late tngt into the 2 to 4 ft range, and a brief pd of 5 ft is possible ovr outer MZs til mid morn or so, with wvs xpctd to subside slightly this aftn and eve. Otherwise, marine fog will cont to be present tdy thru tngt as more humid air with dwpts warmer than Gulf of ME water temps cont to advect Nwrd ovr the Rgn. Rnfl, hvy attms this morn, will move ENE into Srn Can Maritimes by aftn. SHORT TERM: Winds may approach SCA in gusts Sunday and Monday as a southerly flow of air continues across the waters. Very humid air moving over the colder waters will likely result in dense fog Sunday into early Tuesday. Drier air should follow late Tuesday into Wednesday allowing visibilities to improve.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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