Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210117 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 917 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight bringing drier and cooler air with it. Even cooler air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn as Canadian high pressure builds in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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9:18 PM Update...A mild and muggy evening with temperatures and dew points mostly in the 60s as of 9 PM. Fog is dense in spots along and near the coast and more patchy inland and north to the Saint John Valley. The 00z KCAR sounding showed that it is still fairly unstable and very moist in the low levels, but with a decent push of drier air aloft. There is still a lot of thunderstorm activity to our north across the Gaspe Peninsula, but with only very isolated showers across central portions of the CWA. Expect the isolated showers to die out overnight with a clear to partly cloudy sky in the north and low clouds hanging on toward the coast until a cold front pushes offshore toward morning. Previous discussion... Cdfnt is mvg thru Quebec at this time with showers acrs nrn zones ahead of it. Instability is lacking in this area due to low clds so hv just kept pcpn as showers for this evng bfr they mv into NB by 00z. Front wl mv thru area tonight and offshore by daybreak. Skies will clear behind the front and with drier dwpts mvg south out of Canada, not expecting widespread fog acrs nrn zones ovrngt. Hwvr, in deeper vlys cannot rule out moisture pooling and localized fog dvlpng and wl pass on to later shifts to monitor trends. Expect that dense fog wl return to coastal Hancock and Washington counties later tonight and advisory will likely be needed once again. This shud mix out by 12z as drier air gets brought in courtesy of fropa. Mins wl drop to arnd 50F acrs the Crown with m50s for downeast. Sunny skies are expected on Wed with highs some 5-8 degrees abv normal. Expect wrly winds will occasionally gust in the aftn especially acrs the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The short term begins with a dry cold frontal passage for the region late Wed ngt and erly Thu morn, followed up by shwrs and even steady ovrrng rnfl for Thu ngt and Fri with another s/wv and cold front from Cntrl Can, aft a fair and cooler day Thu. Depending on how long rnfl lasts into the day Fri, hi temps Fri may be even cooler than Thu, with lower trrn Nrn lctns perhaps struggling to get into the lower 50s. For now we indicate about a quarter to a half inch of rnfl for Thu ngt into Fri, with max PoPs in the categorical range across Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shwrs should diminish and end from NW to SE across the Fa by Fri eve, with clrg xpctd by late Friday ngt. To erly to gage frost potential across the region Fri ngt and erly Sat morn, since it appears there could be a fair amt of sfc grad NW winds ovr all of the region and perhaps some SC cldnss across the N. Aftwrds, longer range models vary a little with regard to when the upper trof axis from ern Can crosses our region, with tdy`s 12z dtmnstc GFS model run about 12 to 18 hrs faster than the counterpart ECMWF. For now, we are leaning with the slower ECMWF, which would imply the greatest SC cld cvr and rn shwr potential on Sun, msly across the N hlf of the FA. Hi temps will remain sig below avg on Sun, and in fact cannot rule out mixed rn/sn shwrs sun morn for very hi trrn aoa 2000 ft msl. Following the passage of the upper trof Sun ngt, there should be some clrg at least for the SW ptn of the FA, with fair and milder conditions for all of the region on Mon. The next chc of shwrs looks to be on Tue as low pres and associated s/wv alf apchs from the upper great lks. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR at the Down East terminals tonight will give way to VFR Wed morning. VFR to MVFR from KHUL to KFVE will lower to IFR and LIFR in patchy fog tonight, but conditions will quickly improve to VFR early Wed morning. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR all TAF sites Wed ngt and Thu...then MVFR with pds of IFR xpctd Thu ngt into Fri in rn/rn shwrs. VFR xpctd Fri ngt thru Sat...then Nrn TAF sites becoming MVFR with clgs and/or shwrs late Sat ngt thru Sun.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Wed. Areas of fog are expected over the waters tonight as well as for a few hours in the morning. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated attm with msly long pd swell as the dominate wv group. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance this update, which shows max wv hts up to 4 ft ovr outer MZs and arnd 2 ft alg the near shore. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Farrar Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...CB/Farrar/VJN Marine...CB/Farrar/VJN

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