Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190226 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1026 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region overnight. low pressure will track well south of the region Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure Will rebuild across the region Monday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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1015pm Update... Quiet night with clear skies and good radiational cooling. Chimney Pond is the cold spot with 5F. Estcourt has 13F. Quite a few spots have dropped into the upper teens. Inherited forecast had this fine and no changes needed. Increasing high clouds late night toward the coast. Previous Discussion... Sfc high pres will hold ovr the FA ovrngt with mclr skies and lgt to calm winds spcly across the N. With favorable sfc-850mb hydrolapse rates...mdtly strong sfc invsn conditions should develop spcly ovr Nrn vlys, with ovrngt lows only somewhat lmtd by the relative lack of llvl arctic air. Hi cldnss advcg Nwrd late tngt from a developing sfc low ovr the open Atlc E of the mid Atlc states will slow radiational cooling ovr Downeast ptns of the region late tngt. Otherwise, models are in fair agreement with lgt sn msly just grazing the Downeast ptn of the region Sun aftn as the open Atlc low moves ENE well S of Nova Scotia. Prior to and at the tm of any snfl ovr this region, hi cldnss will xpnd Nwrd into Nrn ME...resulting ptly cldy skies there. Any lgt snfl occurring ovr Downeast ME Sun eve will msly exit into NB prov late Sun ngt with skies remaining ptly cldy across the N. At this tm, we indicate 1 to 2 inches of snfl along the Downeast coast by the event end late Sun ngt, amts dropping quickly as one moves inland to the N. High temps Sun across the N will be similar to tdy, but a few deg cooler ovr Cntrl and especially Downeast areas held back by thicker cld cvr an any snfl. Ovr ngt lows Sun ngt across the region will likely be a little milder than tngt`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak High pressure is expected to build in from the west early Monday then move east into the Atlantic. At the same time the eastern portion of the region will be on the edge of precipitation from low pressure well to the east. Later in the evening the precipitation field will move off to the east as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front is then expected to move across the region Tuesday resulting in snow showers. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level low pressure system will then pass to the north of the state Tuesday Night along with the advection of colder air. This will result in scattered snow showers, especially in the north and higher terrain. Expect clearing conditions Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure and drier air move in from the west. The strong high will crest over New England Thursday Night then move east into the Atlantic. Intense low pressure is then expected to move into the Great Lakes Friday as high pressure continues to move away to the east. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR through Sunday most areas. Two possible exceptions. First is very patchy fog late tonight could impact any TAF site. Do not believe fog is likely but just a possibility, and if it does occur, it will be brief and a thin ground fog. Second exception is possible MVFR or IFR mainly Washington County coast as a system grazes the area Sunday afternoon with a bit of light snow. MVFR ceilings may make it as far west as KBHB and KBGR, but kept them just above MVFR in TAFs for now. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Monday through Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The gale watch for our outer MZs Sun aftn into Mon morn has been converted to a Gale wrng with a corresponding SCA for our inner bay/harbor MZ. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: For sustained winds have used a model blend of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF through Tuesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: For Monday combined seas expected to be a combination of northeast wind wave generated by intense low pressure passing well to the east and long period southeasterly swell generated by the same storm system. On Tuesday the southeasterly wave field subsides as off-shore wind wave builds to 6-7 feet/7-8 seconds. The off-shore wind wave is expected to subside along the winds early Tuesday. For wave grids will use the Near Shore Prediction System (NWPS) then transition to the Wave Watch III waves Tuesday Night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Foisy/VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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