Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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131 FXUS61 KCAR 012253 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 553 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. A weak surface boundary will cross the state on Friday. An upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will build across the region later Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 540 PM Update: Still a small area of sn shwrs ovr the far N and NE ptn of the region erly this eve, but not enough to cont the last two wntr stm wrng zones, so we ended them. Eventually ovr the next few hrs, most of this sn shwr activity will end, with most lctns receiving less than an inch of additional accumulation. Otherwise, outside of updating fcst hrly temps and dwpts into the ovrngt pd, no other chgs were made, with fcst ovrngt lows kept the same for now. Orgnl Disc: The steady snow will continue to wind down across northern Maine through late afternoon as the surface low continues to exit to the northeast. Will continue the winter storm warning for northern Aroostook through 7 pm and allow all other warnings to expire. Any additional accumulation across the far north through early this evening will be an inch or so. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy skies overnight with a few snow showers across northwest areas. Temperatures are not expected to fall all that much overnight with lows ranging from around 30 across the far north and lower 30s elsewhere. Friday will be a mainly cloudy day across the entire area. An upper/surface trof will cross the region during the afternoon. This will result in a few snow showers across northern areas Friday afternoon and a few snow/rain showers across central and downeast areas. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low to mid 30s across northern areas and upper 30s to lower 40s central and downeast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A surface trof will remain across the region Friday night while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Expect cloudy skies across the region Friday night with a chance of snow showers across mostly the north and mountains, with lesser snow shower chances Downeast. Another upper level disturbance crosses the region Saturday keeping mostly cloudy skies across the region along with a chance of snow showers mostly across the north and mountains. High pressure begins to build toward the region later Saturday night with mostly cloudy skies along with decreasing snow showers across the north and mountains with decreasing clouds Downeast. High pressure then begins to build across the region later Sunday, with partly sunny skies north and partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, levels Saturday with below normal level temperatures Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Below normal temperatures for next week... Through today, temperatures have not dropped into the teens at Caribou or Bangor this season. Sunday night will be a stark contrast to recent weeks. With a cold Canadian air mass and fresh snow cover in northern zones, single digit lows will be common north of Houlton with the possibility of a few readings near zero in normally colder locations such as the Allagash. Elsewhere, lows will be in the teens to low 20s along the coast. Did not drop below a consensus of guidance at this point as stratocu fields are always a risk in a northwest surface flow in northern zones. The surface high will remain parked in place into Wednesday while strengthening. This air mass will produce highs in the low to mid 20s in northern zones and upper 20s to lower 30s for Bangor and the Down East region for Monday through Wednesday. Overnight lows for Monday and Tuesday night will be similar to Sunday night. The ridge will finally crest over the region Wednesday and started to bring up pops for Wednesday night into Thursday as a frontal system approaches from the west. At this point, it would appear to be snow north of Bangor and coastal zones. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR conditions in snow will exit terminals from HUL northward late this afternoon. The snow will be replaced by cigs varying between high IFR to MVFR this evening through Friday. For BGR and BHB, IFR cigs and drizzle will lift to VFR conditions early this evening. VFR conditions will continue at these southern sites through Friday. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the region Friday night into Saturday, particularly across the north and mountains. Occasional MVFR conditions could linger across the north and mountains Saturday night, with VFR conditions Downeast. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect through 7 am Friday. The advisory may need to be continued for seas into Friday morning for the outer waters. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected across the waters later Friday night into Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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