Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211415 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east into the Maritimes this afternoon. A strong cold front will approach tonight and cross the region Monday morning. High pressure will build south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1010 AM Update... Clouds and fog lifting and burning off per the latest visible satellite imagery and obs. Some fog still hanging on along the eastern section of coastal Washington County per the obs from Eastport(EPM). Expecting the fog there to burn off w/in the next hr or so. THis will need to be monitored however as some clouds/fog trying to push back toward the coast per the satellite imagery. Hrly temps were adjusted and showing cooler readings than earlier advertised. Adjusted the afternoon maxes down a few degrees especially along the eastern areas. No other changes needed attm. Prev discussion blo... Deepening sfc low is located south of James Bay as of 07z. Parent upr lvl system is lifting thru ern Ontario at this time and wl lkly continue north this aftn as heights aloft fall. This wl keep CWA in southerly flow this afternoon with low stratus advecting north this mrng. Low stratus wl mix out by mid- mrng, lvg a fairly nice day on tap. Max temps expected to climb into the u70s acrs the north, in the m70s for Downeast as they wl rmn cloudy for a time this mrng. Immediate coastal zones wl be hard pressed to reach 70F for highs tda. By 00z tonight, cdfnt is progged to be west of the international border. Hires models hinting at potential pre-frontal trof axis to dvlp in the evng spreading showers into nw zones twd 03z. H8 LLJ wl increase to 40-45kts ovrngt with PW values progged to appch 1.75 inches, 2-3 standard deviations abv normal. This wl be aided by RRQ of 100+ kt jet streak, noted on 00z H250 ua charts and latest wv imagery. Expect that the heaviest rain wl occur btwn midnight and daybreak for wrn and cntrl zones, especially with all guidance indicating sfc wv wl ride up along bndry in the mrng. For this reason hv added in slgt chc thunder to Downeast zones bfr 12z. May need to boost qpf amnts in these areas with later updates if convection dvlps. This wud increase the potential for locally hvy rainfall here in the mrng especially if lopres can delay the mvmnt of the front. Lots of flies in the ointment rmn with this fcst. For now think the best chc for widespread 1-1.5 inch amnts wl be acrs the North Woods in area of max lift ovrngt.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front will be crossing eastern parts of our area Monday morning. Showers and perhaps some briefly heavier downpours will taper off early Monday morning. Some embedded thunder is possible, especially across some Downeast areas early. Otherwise, rain will push east into the Maritimes with the cold front on Monday. Skies will clear Downeast and partially clear across the north during the day. This will give way to a mostly clear and cool night Monday night as high pressure builds toward the east coast. The high to our south will bring a seasonably warm day on Tuesday. Downeast will be mostly sunny. A weak weather disturbance straying across the north may bring some spotty showers to far northern areas late Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure south of the area will bring warmer and more humid conditions on Wednesday with a mostly sunny sky as a southwesterly breeze around the high pushes warmer air north across our area. We will remain in southwesterlies north of the high on Thursday with upper level ridging pushing across the area. This will bring mostly sunny and very warm and breezy conditions on Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the area early Friday with some showers. The front appears to be fast moving and will likely continue southeast allowing clearing from north to south on Friday. This will be followed by a dry and cooler weekend as the high builds over. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Low stratus working north off the ocean will bring ocnl MVFR/IFR cigs this morning. Still some question as to how far north stratus can advect, thus have tempo`d in SCT015 to PQI, CAR and FVE. Feel more confident south of HUL. Expect VFR for majority of the day with IFR expected once again for southern terminals late in valid time with onshore flow. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in showers early Monday will improve to MVFR then VFR by midday. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail through Thursday as high pressure builds south of the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain SCA criteria through tonight. Areas of fog expected Monday morning ahead of the cold front. SHORT TERM: A few winds gusts may approach 20 to 25 kt over the offshore waters in gusty northwest winds following the cold frontal passage on Monday. Winds will gradually diminish Monday night into Tuesday then become southwesterly through mid-week as high pressure builds to the south. Swell from tropical storm Fiona will likely affect the waters this week and into next weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/Bloomer

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