Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200140 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 940 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER DOWN EAST MAINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY. THIS NECESSITATED RAISING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO...RE-INTERPOLATED SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON THE FACT THE WE ARE EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH BACK AROUND THE HIGH CENTER AND INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NNE BUT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 80F INLAND AND COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS NW MAINE AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE MOSTLY ALOFT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND ON WEB CAMS...AND WITH NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOME OF THE SMOKE COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS SMOKE AND/OR HAZE MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES. IT IS ALL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS THINNED OUT A BIT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST LATER SUN NIGHT IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY FAR TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH HEADING INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY WITH A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO COLLAPSE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH A SOLUTION THAT WOULD FAVOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH LATE DAY STORMS ARRIVING ONLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST BY 0Z THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WEIGHTED THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE A BIT FAST DURING LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION. GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH A WARM AND HUMID DAY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING DOWN BY THIS TIME BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS THE GEM AND GFS STALL THE FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE VERY LATEST ECMWF NOW CLEARS THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT A COOL DOWN TO TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POPS DIMINISHING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG (07-11Z) TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF LOWER STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB LATE SUN NIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A RESIDUAL SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK AS SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS

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