Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140144 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 944 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight then slide south of the region Monday into Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 942 PM Update... The latest radar loop showed a small area of light showers diving se from Quebec across the Crown this evening. Decided to carry 20% pops across the northern border to account for this activity for the next few hrs and then this activity will weaken. Satl imagery showed some mid level clouds skirting the northern border w/those showers. The rest of the night should be clear w/some patchy fog by morning. Watching activity back across east-central Canada that is in response to a disturbance in the fast wnw flow. Lightning data showed the activity weakening and this should be the trend overnight. Current forecast low temps look good and no changes needed. Previous Discussion... High pressure will build into the region overnight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s down east. Monday is shaping up as a nice mid summer day across the region. A weak warm front lifting up across the region will bring a bit more in the way of clouds across northwest Maine and an isolated shower clouldn`t be ruled out along the Maine/Quebec border during the afternoon. Highs Monday afternoon will climb well up into the 70s to near 80 degrees across the north and low 80s across central and down east areas, which is actually a few degrees above the normal highs for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure moving off to our southeast combined with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will bring a return flow of humid air Monday night into Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach on Tuesday. A pre-frontal trough ahead of the front will move across the area Tuesday afternoon providing some focus for showers and thunderstorms. Capes are projected to be from 500-700 J/KJ supporting moderate storms but likely little or no severe storms. Any showers or thunderstorms will likely move east of our area into New Brunswick later Tuesday evening. However, some isolated showers or thunderstorms may pop up in the far northwest ahead of the main cold front later Tuesday night. The front will cross the area overnight. A deep upper level trough of low pressure well north across Quebec combined with high pressure building in from the northwest will push some much cooler and drier air across the area on Wednesday upon gusty northwest winds. The north will be partly cloudy with a cumulus field over the north while Downeast has a mostly sunny sky on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday night will be a mostly clear and chilly night as high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. Thursday will then feature plenty of sunshine with high pressure building over. This will be followed by a mostly clear night Thursday night. High pressure will slide to the east on Friday. The return flow behind the high will bring a slight increase in humidity and clouds may begin to increase ahead of a weak trough approaching from the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Friday night. Some showers and embedded thunderstorms are then possible on Saturday as the trough moves in and winds increase from the south ahead of the trough. Winds from the south, off the ocean, my limit surface instability, especially Downeast on Saturday. However, shear looks strong and an influx of humid air in the boundary layer may support elevated convection across the area. The best chance for surface based convective storms will be in western and northwestern areas on Saturday. The trough will move away on Sunday as skies partially clear. This will be followed by dry weather to start the following week. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected overnight through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night with the possible exception of some stratus reducing conditions to IFR near the coast late at night. VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday except in an thunderstorms. Conditions should be VFR Tuesday night and remain VFR into Friday as high pressure builds over. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Monday night through Tuesday night. West, northwest winds will be gusty Wednesday into Wednesday night possibly approaching SCA in gusts. Winds should diminish Thursday into Thursday night and be light on Friday under high pressure. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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