Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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697 FXUS61 KCAR 231328 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 928 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from central Canada will move across the region this morning with rain ending from west to east. Colder air is expected to arrive later tonight into the weekend as as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM Update: Forecast remains in good shape at this time. Only needed to make minor tweaks for POPs and temps based on current conditions. Main challenge will be timing the improvement in conditions at our TAF sites, and the potential for frost tonight. Previous Discussion... Low pres moves across central and downeast areas w/the rain shield shifting s to the coast. Used a blend of the NAM12 and Hi Res WRF for placement of rainfall w/the adjustment of QPF further s given the latest trend of the radar. A shave in storm total rainfall was done showing 0.40 to 0.60 w/the highest totals further s toward the Caribou- Presque Isle region while central and downeast areas will see up to 0.25 inches of rainfall. The rain will taper off to showers later this morning and then end by the afternoon as the low moves quickly into New Brunswick. Some sunshine is expected across the northern areas this afternoon, while the Downeast and coast will likely see rain into mid afternoon. Definitely colder w/temps today not getting out of th e low 50s across the north and west while central and downeast will see 55-60 and temps falling back by late afternoon. NNW winds picking up behind the front at 10-15 mph will add a chill to the air. Another challenge will be later tonight as the cold air really sets in and skies clear out. NNW winds will stay up around 10 mph into the evening, but they are expected to drop off overnight. Sounding data does show a shallow inversion setting by early Saturday morning. Temps are expected to drop into the mid 30s across portions of the n and w w/some low lying spots hitting lower 30s. There is some concern however that the duration might not be long enough for frost formation and winds above 1500 ft are forecast to be around 25 kts. This could keep blyr winds to stay up enough(around 5 mph) to alleviate widespread frost formation. Low lying spots could see patchy frost. Therefore, after collaboration w/GYX, decided to stay w/patchy frost for now. The daycrew can assess this further. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level low will remain across eastern Canada and northern New England through Sunday while high pressure at the surface across Central Canada slowly builds east through Sunday. The synoptic pattern will set the stage for a rather chilly, but mainly dry first weekend of the autumn season. Expect the most sunshine to be found across downeast areas with a bit more in the way of cloud cover across the north in the chilly northwest flow. High temperatures both weekend days will range from the low to mid 50s north and upper 50s to near 60 downeast. Lows Saturday night are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s across much of the region. Although some patchy frost cant be ruled out Saturday night across the north, there will likely be patches of stratocumulus and a bit of a northwest gradient to inhibit widespread frost development. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fair weather will continue Sunday night though Monday with a continuation of below normal temperatures. Timing differences still exist with regard to the next trof approaching for early next week making for a continued low confidence forecast through the middle of next week. The latest EC is faster and brings some showers back to the area Monday night compared to the slower GFS solution which keep things dry through Tuesday. Went along with the model blended solution as a basis for the forecast. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR going to IFR this morning across the northern terminals in rain. Conditions will improve w/MVFR cigs and then VFR by early afternoon. KBGR and KBHB will drop to MVFR later this morning and then to IFR into early afternoon. An improvement to VFR will be seen by the afternoon. VFR looks in order for tonight w/patchy frost expected for the northern terminals. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions should prevail much of the period. MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night across the north in patchy stratocumulus ceilings. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines. Winds will turn to the s and increase to 10-15 kt this morning. Gusts to 20 kts are expected over the outer zones this morning. A brief reprieve expected later this morning and then a surge later this afternoon into the evening w/gusts to 20 kts for a time as winds go nnw behind the front. Seas will average 2-4 ft out over the outer zones. Closer to the intra coastal zone, seas will average 2 ft or less. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should remain below small craft advisory levels through much of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Kredensor Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hewitt/Kredensor/Duda Marine...Hewitt/Kredensor/Duda

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