Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 231328
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
928 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
Low pressure from central Canada will move across the region
this morning with rain ending from west to east. Colder air is
expected to arrive later tonight into the weekend as as Canadian
high pressure builds in behind the low.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM Update: Forecast remains in good shape at this time. Only
needed to make minor tweaks for POPs and temps based on current
conditions. Main challenge will be timing the improvement in
conditions at our TAF sites, and the potential for frost tonight.
Low pres moves across central and downeast areas w/the rain
shield shifting s to the coast. Used a blend of the NAM12 and Hi
Res WRF for placement of rainfall w/the adjustment of QPF further
s given the latest trend of the radar. A shave in storm total
rainfall was done showing 0.40 to 0.60 w/the highest totals
further s toward the Caribou- Presque Isle region while central
and downeast areas will see up to 0.25 inches of rainfall.
The rain will taper off to showers later this morning and then end
by the afternoon as the low moves quickly into New Brunswick. Some
sunshine is expected across the northern areas this afternoon,
while the Downeast and coast will likely see rain into mid
afternoon. Definitely colder w/temps today not getting out of th
e low 50s across the north and west while central and downeast
will see 55-60 and temps falling back by late afternoon. NNW winds
picking up behind the front at 10-15 mph will add a chill to the
Another challenge will be later tonight as the cold air really
sets in and skies clear out. NNW winds will stay up around 10 mph
into the evening, but they are expected to drop off overnight.
Sounding data does show a shallow inversion setting by early
Saturday morning. Temps are expected to drop into the mid 30s
across portions of the n and w w/some low lying spots hitting
lower 30s. There is some concern however that the duration might
not be long enough for frost formation and winds above 1500 ft
are forecast to be around 25 kts. This could keep blyr winds
to stay up enough(around 5 mph) to alleviate widespread frost
formation. Low lying spots could see patchy frost. Therefore,
after collaboration w/GYX, decided to stay w/patchy frost for now.
The daycrew can assess this further.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low will remain across eastern Canada and
northern New England through Sunday while high pressure at the
surface across Central Canada slowly builds east through Sunday.
The synoptic pattern will set the stage for a rather chilly, but
mainly dry first weekend of the autumn season. Expect the most
sunshine to be found across downeast areas with a bit more in the
way of cloud cover across the north in the chilly northwest flow.
High temperatures both weekend days will range from the low to
mid 50s north and upper 50s to near 60 downeast. Lows Saturday
night are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s across much
of the region. Although some patchy frost cant be ruled out
Saturday night across the north, there will likely be patches of
stratocumulus and a bit of a northwest gradient to inhibit
widespread frost development.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fair weather will continue Sunday night though Monday with
a continuation of below normal temperatures. Timing differences
still exist with regard to the next trof approaching for early
next week making for a continued low confidence forecast through
the middle of next week. The latest EC is faster and brings some
showers back to the area Monday night compared to the slower GFS
solution which keep things dry through Tuesday. Went along with
the model blended solution as a basis for the forecast.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR going to IFR this morning across the northern
terminals in rain. Conditions will improve w/MVFR cigs and then
VFR by early afternoon. KBGR and KBHB will drop to MVFR later
this morning and then to IFR into early afternoon. An improvement
to VFR will be seen by the afternoon. VFR looks in order for
tonight w/patchy frost expected for the northern terminals.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions should prevail much of the period. MVFR
conditions are possible Saturday night across the north in
patchy stratocumulus ceilings.
NEAR TERM: No headlines. Winds will turn to the s and increase to
10-15 kt this morning. Gusts to 20 kts are expected over the outer
zones this morning. A brief reprieve expected later this morning
and then a surge later this afternoon into the evening w/gusts to
20 kts for a time as winds go nnw behind the front. Seas will
average 2-4 ft out over the outer zones. Closer to the intra
coastal zone, seas will average 2 ft or less.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas should remain below small craft advisory
levels through much of the period.