Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271331
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
831 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure will lift across the maritimes today
through Monday. High pressure will build across the region Monday
night into Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast to expire the Winter Weather Advisories
and to adjust for current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
Intensifying low pressure will track toward northeast Nova Scotia
today, with a trof extending back across the region. the low will
lift across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight, with high pressure
starting to build toward the region late. The trof will help focus
precipitation across the region this morning then weaken this
afternoon. Across northern and central areas precipitation will
remain in the form of snow with up to around another inch of
additional accumulation possible. Across Downeast areas
precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow with any
accumulations less than an inch. The precipitation will taper to
snow and rain showers and diminish this afternoon. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy across northern areas tonight with isolated
to scattered snow showers mostly during the evening. Cloud cover
will decrease Downeast overnight. High temperatures today will
range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the upper 30s to around
40 Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s
north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By 12z Mon sfc low wl be ovr the Gulf of St. Lawrence and pulling
east drg the course of the day. 1020mb sfc high wl be building in fm
the west on Mon. NW flow wl continue thru the day leading to low
stratus acrs the north and sunny skies Downeast. Temps wl be held
down acrs the north in the m30s and in the l30s acrs portions of the
North Woods while srn zones wl likely top out in the low 40s.

Sfc ridge axis wl be acrs CWA Tue mrng. With clr skies, lgt winds
and low dwpts, expect mins to easily drop into the teens in favored
vly locations acrs the north.

Winds wl veer to a more ESE direction in the aftn as high builds
east into Canada. At the same time an occluding system wl spread
overrunning pcpn into the area drg the aftn. Ptype wl depend
entirely on temps aloft. 00z GFS looks to be the warmest guidance
with 00z NAM the coldest, giving all snow to the area Tue aftn. GFS,
on the other hand, results in a ra/sn mix along the coast and as far
north as a Dover-Millinocket line. CMC and EC fall somewhere in
between these solns.

For the time being, hv sided more toward a compromise soln vs one
extreme or another with rain/snow line mvg as far north as a Dover-
Princeton line bfr dropping back south late Tue aftn. Biggest
difference looks to be eventual dvlpmnt of secondary low at the
end of the short term and how fast/where it can dvlp. NAM/EC/CMC
keep cool erly flow pumping into CWA thru 00z Wed while GFS draws
in warm srly winds allowing temps aloft to incrs. Difference
appears to be related to juxtaposition of sfc high acrs Quebec and
it`s impact on eventual dvlpmnt of wk sfc low north of Georgian
Bay. Latest GFS is the only med range guidance pointing to a wk
sfc ridge and thus, the dvlpmnt of the low while rmng med range
guidance does not hv this.

Either way a widespread swath of overrunning pcpn wl affect CWA
Tue ngt. Ra/snow line wl waver arnd the Bangor region depending on
temps aloft. Not seeing any indication of icing per latest BUFKIT
sndgs as warm lyr is not really being hinted at, thus hv kept it
just a general ra/sn mix.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Coastal low that dvlps ovrngt wl slide south of Nova Scotia Wed
mrng lvg sctd rain or snow showers in its wake in NW flow. As
rmns to be the case the GFS is much wrmr than all other guidance
thru the end of the week. Wed wl bring a quick break to the pcpn
at some point drg the aftn bfr next occlusion appchs. Widespread
pcpn expected on Thur with same issue of ptype as GFS is warm,
indicating all rain for the area while EC, and especially the
CMC, show snow. Wl refine the details as we get later in time but
for now we are looking at the potential for two systems drg the
course of the week.
&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, generally ranging from VFR to IFR,
will occur across the region this morning. VFR/MVFR conditions are
expected this afternoon. Generally expect VFR conditions Downeast
tonight, with VFR/MVFR conditions across northern areas.

SHORT TERM: Expect restrictions improving to VFR at southern
terminals Mon morning with terminals north of HUL mainly MVFR
through Mon. Restrictions may improve to VFR Mon ngt through Tue
mrng under high pressure. System will move in from the west Tue
afternoon bringing all sites down to MVFR and eventually IFR Tue
night through Wed afternoon. May see a very brief rise to MVFR Wed
aftn, mainly across southern terminals, before quickly dropping to
IFR once again as the next system quickly follows.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters
today through tonight. Visibilities could be reduced in rain and
patchy fog this morning into early afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Marginal SCA conditions expected Mon morning with wind
gusts aob 25kts. Expect seas to increase to abv 5kft beginning Tue
night continuing through the end of the week. Wind gusts will be
dependent on movement of low pressure across the waters which is
very uncertain at this time.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Norcross/Farrar
Marine...Norcross/Farrar



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