Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 170706
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH
MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED
FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT
OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS
SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL.
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5
ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES
STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM
FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A
CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN
SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A
SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE
NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN
OVERLAND TRAJECTORY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND
KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS
COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW
RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING
W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT
RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO
VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO
HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN
CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...







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