Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 131447
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
947 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region this morning. High
pressure will then build across the region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Hrly temps were adjusted to meet the latest conditions
w/readings dropping off considerably from this morning. Colder air
will continue right into tonight w/wnw winds 20-30 mph gusting to
40 mph. Gusts to 45 mph expected across higher terrain. Radar
showed some isolated/scattered snow showers across northern Maine
this morning pulling out attm. The latest NAM and RAP showed some
more activity later this morning into the afternoon. This looks to
be mainly across western and northern areas. Vsby could be reduced
to less than 1 mile combined w/the winds and this could lead to
travel issues. Will issue a Special Weather Statement to address
this after 10 AM.

Previous Discussion... A strong cold front will cross the region
this morning. High temperatures will occur early today then fall
in the wake of the cold front. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy
skies with isolated to scattered snow showers across the north and
mountains today. Generally expect little or no snow accumulation.
However, locally greater accumulations could occur beneath any
more persistent snow bands. Mostly sunny skies are expected across
Bangor and Downeast areas today. A strong pressure gradient will
produce gusty winds today, with west to northwest winds generally
gusting up to around 40 mph. Locally stronger gusts could occur
across higher terrain areas. High pressure will build east toward
the region later tonight. Gusty winds will persist into the
evening then begin to diminish overnight. However, the winds will
remain strong enough to produce dangerous wind chills of 20 below
zero to 30 below zero later tonight across northern portions of
the forecast area. Have issued a Wind Chill Advisory for northern
portions of the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. High
temperatures will occur early today ranging through the 20s to
lower 30s north, with upper 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with
around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 5 below zero to around
10 below zero north, to around zero to 5 above zero Bangor and
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move to the
east. This system will bring partly to mostly sunny
conditions Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will approach
from the west and move to the north of the state Saturday night
and bring some snow showers. Strong high pressure will then build
in from the west Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure will crest over the region Sunday night then
move to the east Monday. Low pressure is then expected to pass to
approach from the southwest Tuesday and then pass to the west of
the region Wednesday. A secondary low is then expected to develop
on the Maine coast late Wednesday as the primary low passes to the
west. High pressure will then build in from the west Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the
north and mountains today, with locally lower conditions with any
snow bands. VFR conditions are expected across the north and
mountains tonight. VFR conditions are expected across the
remainder of the forecast area Today through tonight. Gusty west
to northwest winds up to around 40 mph will occur across the
entire region today, with locally stronger gusts possible across
higher terrain areas.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale conditions will develop on the waters today. A
Gale Warning remains in effect across the waters Today into this
evening. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later
tonight. Light freezing spray will begin to develop tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained wind grids then
transition to Super Blend winds late Sunday. For waves: Off-shore
wind wave is expected to dominate Saturday into next week with a
secondary southerly long period swell group (1 foot/8-9 seconds).
Used Near Shore Wave Model through Sunday then transition to Wave
Watch III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone



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