Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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119
FXUS61 KCAR 221046
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
646 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong Arctic front will cross the region today while low
pressure intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure
will build across the region later Thursday through Thursday
night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/..
630am update...Didn`t change any details on this forecast, but
latest trends and guidance are showing a bit less snowfall and
most activity done by early to mid afternoon. High winds,
blowing snow and temporarily reduced visibilities remain the
biggest concerns...rather than the amount of snow.

Previous discussion...
With winter weather headlines already in place, will maintain
these headlines and add wind advisories for zones that weren`t
already covered by the winter weather advisory or wind advisory.
In terms of the snow, it looks like most of the snow will be
with the Arctic front rather than moisture wrapped back into the
state from the emerging low in the Canadian Maritimes. As a
result, do not anticipate any accumulations greater than 3
inches and many areas will receive an inch or less. The biggest
impact with regards to the snow will be heavier squalls that
reduce visibility towards a quarter mile as the front crosses
this morning. Blowing snow will contribute to these reduced
visibilities. The winds will be big factor this
afternoon...increasing with intensification of the low. Gusts to
50 mph should be easily attainable with a deep mixed layer and
very strong cold air advection. The winds will continue into the
evening and have maintained the wind advisory to 2am. Power
outages will be a threat for the entire forecast area this
afternoon and evening. In terms of temperatures, they will
plummet through the entire day and tonight with the Arctic air
mass. Wind chills will dip towards -15F tonight in northern
zones and in the -5 to -10F range for Bangor and the Down East
region.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will cross the region later Thursday through
Thursday night with generally partly cloudy skies north with
mostly clear skies Downeast. Northwest winds will remain gusty
Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. High pressure
then moves east Friday with a warm front crossing the region.
Expect increasing clouds Friday with a chance of snow showers
north, along with a chance of snow/rain showers Downeast. A cold
front then crosses the region Friday night with a chance of
snow showers. Temperatures will be at below normal levels
Thursday, with slightly below normal level temperatures Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure crosses the region Saturday through Sunday with
generally partly/mostly sunny skies. Low pressure tracks south
of the region Monday, with high pressure centered to the north.
Uncertainty still exists regarding whether the high will be
able to keep the precipitation shield with the low entirely
south of the forecast area and have included only a slight
chance of snow at this time. High pressure moves east early
Tuesday with a cold front approaching late. Expect increasing
clouds Tuesday, with a chance of snow/rain mostly late.
Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal,
levels Saturday through Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: The first concern until the frontal passage will be
patchy fog for BGR and BHB. Any fog will rapidly go away early
this morning with arrival of the front. The front will bring a
new set of aviation problems with IFR vis in snow and very
strong and gusty northwest winds. Most terminals will have
periods of IFR vis in snow towards mid-morning into the
afternoon. Winds will steadily ramp up such that by late
afternoon into the evening, northwesterly gusts could reach 50
mph. This will also cause reduced vis due to blowing snow. The
winds will continue through the evening and slowly diminish
after midnight. It will be VFR for all terminals after this
evening when the snow moves out and blowing snow decreases.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
Thursday. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph Thursday.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Friday. Generally expect
VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will increase very rapidly this
morning as a cold front crosses. A few gusts towards 50 kts
cannot be ruled out by this evening and seas will go from
current levels around 2 feet to over 14 feet by this evening.
The winds will be northwest. Will maintain the gale warning
rather upgrading to a storm as sustained storm-level gusts are
not anticipated. Freezing spray becomes a factor later this
afternoon through the night and will maintain the current
advisory.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts up to gale levels are still possible
early Thursday. Small craft advisory level conditions are then
expected Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Moderate freezing
spray is expected early Thursday with a Freezing Spray Advisory
in effect through the morning. Light freezing spray is expected
later Thursday into Thursday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ002-005-006-011-017-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001-
     003-004-010.
     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for MEZ015-016-029>031.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross



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