Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS MOST SN SHWR ACTIVITY REMAINING E
OF THE ERN ME/WRN NB BORDER...BUT WE CANNOT RULE A FEW FLURRIES
FOR NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TIL ABOUT MID MORN. NW WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK THIS MORN...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURG
THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRAD SLACKENS.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER CLDNSS BREAKS FOR THE NRN
PTN OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...AND IF IT DOES...HOW LONG DOES IT
STAY CLR TNGT. WITH THE APCH OF THE SFC HI LATE TNGT...SPCLY OVR
WRN PTNS OF THE FA...SFC WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...SO CLRG SKIES
WOULD ALLOW SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVR FRESH SN
CVR...SPCLY OVR WRN VLYS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS LATER TNGT ALONG
WITH WRMG 850-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMATION BY DAYBREAK SAT. THIS COULD ACT AS A
CONDUIT FOR ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM ERN QB THAT GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS INVSN AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS SSW INTO OUR FA.

ATTM...IT BEHOOVES US TO FCST FOR SOME RADITIONAL COOLING TNGT
FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS COLD THAT WOULD OCCUR FOR A MAX
POTENTIAL SFC BASE INVSN THAT WOULD FORM UNDER COMPLETELY CLR
SKIES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...THE FCST FOR OVRNGT LOW TEMPS FRI
NGT HAS LESS THEN THE AVG FCST CONFIDENCE FACTOR TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PD 2 FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE INVERSION CONTINUES TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE COAST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL OFF TOO MUCH. AS STRONG MARITIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS WEEK...EXPECT
A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A COASTAL FRONT SEEMS SET TO DEVELOP DURING
WEDNESDAY...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS...A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND AN EXTREMELY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...BUT
READINGS OVER 50F WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS.

THE SECOND BIG CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ALONG THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY
FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS GREENVILLE MAY ALSO BE PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT VFR THRU TNGT...WHILE NRN TAF
SITES TRANSITION FROM MVFR CLGS THIS MORN TO VFR SOMETIME THIS
AFTN...WITH ALL SITES CONTG VFR INTO THE EVE. AFTWRDS...SOME LOW
CLDNSS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW MVFR MAY WORK SWRD FROM QB LATE
TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE GETS SANDWICHED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVSN IN THE 2.5-5.5 KFT LAYER.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MOSTLY LOW MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CIGS MAY JUST LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING ALL MZS INITIALLY...BUT MAY
DROP AT LEAST THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 AND MAYBE EVEN OUTER
MZ051 AT THE 6 AM UPDATE. IN ANY EVENT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING...AND WE ANTICIPATE TO BE HDLN
FREE BY MIDDAY. AFTWRDS NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT. INITIALLY...
WE WENT A LITTLE ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE BASED ON TRENDS FROM BUOY
OBS...BUT MERGE TO WW3 GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.