000
FXUS61 KCAR 020537
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM CANADA LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0035 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEAR
TERM...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS
MAINE. LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL REPORTS SUGGEST UP TO A HALF AN INCH
NORTH AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES DOWNEAST. THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
GET STRONGER AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE CLOSER TO OUR FCST
AREA. ALSO...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RESULTING LESS
SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOW AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
FRONT WILL REACH DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
BY 18Z SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CHILLY. BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SUBZERO TEMPS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET AND VERY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MAINE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT IT WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM THE COAST. NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS A ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND WEST, WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 20 DOWNEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW DOWNEAST, AND 5 BELOW TO
15 BELOW IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE NORTHERN
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY SHUNTING ANY APPROACHING
SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH. DRY AND EXTREME COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WITH
SUBZERO MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AN ARCTIC SURGE WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD DROP MORNING TEMPERATURES TO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE IN
NORTHERN ZONES WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW -40. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST FRIDAY FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND A QUICK AND
SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
ERN MAINE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
TRACKING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE STATE.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES, MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE WEST. WAVES IN TURN WILL BE
HIGH RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8 FT THOUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 18Z SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE