000
FXUS61 KCAR 290301
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
AND CREST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE 2140L: COLD AND BRISK CONDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
MAINLY CLR SKIES ALL BUT FAR N AND W WHERE A FEW CLDS REMAIN...
ANY ADJUSTMENT ATTM IS TO THE HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE RUNNING JUST A
FEW DEGREES ABV FCST. OTHERWISE...FCST REMAINS RATHER
STRAIGHTFORWARD W/ COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONT TO BUILD EWRD INTO OUR AREA
OVR THE NXT 24-36 HRS RESULTING IN COLD BUT DRY CONDS...&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE COAST WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. THE COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY IN
SPITE OF LOTS OF SUNSHINE; SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
20S WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES TO HIT 20.

THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT, PROCEEDED BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS. THE SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN
MAINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER BY
MID-MORNING SUNDAY. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, BUT AN
ALL-SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MAINE. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY, THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, USHERING THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z GFS, MEANWHILE, KEEPS PRECIP AROUND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ECMWF KEEPS US DRY UNDER BRIEF RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THEN BRINGS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE. THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT KBGR AND KBHB THROUGH FRI. AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS MOSTLY MVFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500
FT AGL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR FRI AFTERNOON
FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE. A WEST WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR AND LIKELY IFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SNOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE
TO RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KBGR AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SNOW EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY,
WHICH WOULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR
TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2140L: GLW CONDS HAVE ABATED ATTM AND GIVEN WAY
TO SCA CONDS. WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BLO SCA LEVELS ERLY
FRI AM BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO FALL BLO SCA LEVELS.
HAVE DROPPED THE GLW IN FAVOR OF AN SCA AND WILL RUN THE SCA THRU
FRI AM. WNDS/SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS AS HIGH
PRES BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO
SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY AND PERHAPS ALLOW A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. WHILE
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME CLOSELY FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN SCA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/CB/HASTINGS