Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 292204
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
604 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHWEST OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.600 PM UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN MAINE CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. THE SKYCON ACROSS DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARED OUT. BREAKS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL
MAINE AS WELL. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKYCON TO KEEP THINGS
CURRENT...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MINI SHWRS
ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES. WITH LEFT
OVR SFC-BL MOISTURE...WE XPCT POTENTIAL PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOG OVR THE FA LATE TNGT WITH LGT WINDS AS A WEAK SFC HI APCHS
FROM THE W...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLRG OF SC IS ABLE TO TAKE
PLACE.

AFT NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS AND THE DISSIPATION OF ERLY MORN
PATCHY FOG...SKIES SHOULD BE PTLY SUNNY ON TUES RESULTING IN NEAR
SEASONAL HI TEMPS. ANOTHER S/WV APCHG FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TUE AND TUE NGT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHWRS TO NW PTNS OF THE FA...
MAINLY LATE TUE NGT. OVRNGT LOWS TUE NGT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER
THAN TNGT`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. WILL USE
THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP... QPF AND SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A SLOW TRANSITION FROM WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US
BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR MOST TAF SITES THIS EVE...WITH MVFR CLGS ATTMS
ACROSS THE FAR N...SPCLY KFVE. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATE TNGT IN PATCHY FOG...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLRG
OCCURS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING NEEDED TO PRODUCE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD THEN LIFT AND BREAK UP AS DISSIPATING ST ERLY TUE MORN...
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUE INTO TUE NGT...TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR CLGS LATE TUE NGT.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.600 PM UPDATE...SEAS HAVE BUILT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SCA OUT UNTIL 10 PM FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. CONTINUE TO
ANTICIPATE THAT SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NOT
QUITE AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM: KEPT SCA FOR MARGINAL HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS...BUT XPCT
THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BLO 5 FT PERHAPS EVEN PRIOR TO 8 PM...THE
CURRENT EXPIRATION TM. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS XPCTD OVRNGT THRU TUE
NGT ATTM.

SHORT TERM: WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. FOR
WAVES WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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