Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270238
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1038 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1035 PM UPDATE: TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF A LITTLE
FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED. AS A RESULT, ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THESE AREAS DOWN BY A COUPLE
DEGREES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WE ARE EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE FA TONIGHT. HOWEVER BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THEY HAVE BEST CHANCES TO
DECOUPLE WITH WEAK GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THE EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS TODAY WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP FROM MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONE MORE WARM DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW PLACES
REACHING 80. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY MAINLY AT HOULTON AND
CARIBOU. FOR HOULTON, WE ARE FORECASTING 79 AND THE RECORD IS 77.
FOR CARIBOU, WE ARE FORECASTING 77 AND THE RECORD IS 77. BANGOR`S
FORECAST 80 WOULD BE 3 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD OF 83.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE SOUTH TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT A BIT, AND ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN MAINE FOR MONDAY, COMPARED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER RIDES EASTWARD ON THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A LOT
OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AN EAST FLOW SHOULD BRING
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER
TUESDAY...THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER IT BECOMES A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW THAT SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...OR MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS COVER
AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE COAST FOR THE FIRST
SCENARIO. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF DECOUPLING AS HIGH BUILDS
EAST AND THIS WOULD GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE TRICKY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES WITH WEAK GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND THIS COULD NEGATE FOGGY CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR SUNDAY. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST PLACES. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR MOST PLACES BY LATE MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. JUST LOOKING FOR
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER, TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY. AN SCA FOR WINDS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY






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