Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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074
FXUS61 KCAR 161906
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
206 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Intense low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will slowly
drift towards Newfoundland by Friday morning. Weak high
pressure will build from the west Friday night and Saturday. Low
pressure from northern Ontario will move east towards northern
Maine on Saturday night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low in the Canadian Maritimes and the associated tight
pressure gradient on the backside of the low will be the biggest
impact on the forecast area tonight into Friday. This tight
pressure gradient and steep low level lapse rates will result in
continued strong winds through the night...and increasing again
in the morning with daytime heating/mixing. The snow showers
that have backed into northeastern portions of the forecast
area will taper off this evening as the storm pulls further away
from Nova Scotia. This will also mitigate issues with blowing
snow along the eastern border of the state late this afternoon
and evening. The strong winds prompted an increase in lows
tonight towards a model consensus. Clouds will gradually erode
on Friday from southwest to northeast. This will allow
temperatures to exceed the freezing mark around Bangor and the
Down East region while nearing 30F will be measured as far
north as the Crown of Maine.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No high impact winter weather expected this weekend.  A weak surface
ridge builds into the area Fri night with dry weather and seasonably
cold temperatures.  A clipper system moves into western Quebec
Saturday afternoon which will cause clouds to thicken up across the
northern half of the CWA Saturday with a little light snow to spread
from west to east across the area.  The clipper moves across
northern Maine Sat night with areas of light snow across northern
Maine.  Any snow accumulation from Sat through Sat night will likely
be an inch or two, or less.  An upper trough with some shortwaves
move through Sun with more clouds than sun and the chance for a
couple of snow showers.  Temperatures will average a little above
normal this weekend, and in fact even far northern Maine in the Saint
John Valley may top the freezing mark by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, no high impact weather systems are expected through the
middle of next week.  An upper trough moves through Sun nigh and is
followed by an upper ridge that crests over the area Tue afternoon.
Dry weather with temperatures a bit above average through early next
week.  A weather system is expected to pass well north of the area
Wednesday, and will be followed by a potential cold frontal
passage by around Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR vis in snow showers and blowing snow will end
late this afternoon or early evening for sites north of HUL. The
snow showers will linger in FVE longest. After the snow showers
end, the predominant condition will be MVFR cigs north of HUL.
For BGR and BHB, expect VFR conditions through the period.

SHORT TERM: VFR will likely give way to times of MVFR and
perhaps brief IFR in -sn at the northern terminals Sat afternoon
into Sat night. Conditions should remain VFR at the Downeast
terminals. VFR at the Downeast terminals Sun, with MVFR to VFR
at the northern Taf sites from KHUL to KFVE. Generally VFR
conditions are expected Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have extended the Gale Warning until 10am Friday
morning as the deep low in the Gulf of St Lawrence is expected
to cause winds to increase again late this afternoon into the
evening. By Friday morning, winds will be decreasing and the
gale will likely be transitioned to an SCA for the balance of
Friday.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels through the weekend. There could
potentially be a period of marginal low end small craft advisory
level wind gusts Sun night into Mon as low pres pulls away and
high pres advances toward the waters from the west.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ052.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...MCW/CB
Marine...MCW/CB



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