Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020840
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES
AS NO FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPECTED THERE.  SOME SUNNY
BREAKS MAY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS
PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING
THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY
AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED
THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN
PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL
SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS
AND 35 MPH GUSTS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE



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