530
FXUS61 KCAR 240526
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the area
through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday
afternoon. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday
into Friday. Low pressure will cross the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
125 am update...
Line of storms moving in from Quebec died over the Crown of
Maine and updated pops to move this area out. Next area of
convection moving in from the St. Lawrence is expected to hold
together thru the Crown of Maine. Nrn areas are at the edge of
CAPE gradient so expect this will sustain itself and have added
likely showers and sctd storms to the north over the next
several hours. No other chgs needed with this update.

previous discussion
Tonight, ridging from upper level high pressure continues to
build in, as a surface low pressure system tracks into Maine
from the northwest. Primary concern ahead of this system in a
low-level jet that may act as a lifting mechanism for some
convection in the Crown of Maine. Favorable near-storm
environment lies ahead of the frontal system, with good elevated
CAPE, shear, moisture, omega, and lapse rates. HiRes models
have increased confidence that storms could move through
overnight, with the highest threat being gusty winds and
relatively heavy rainfall. Warm front comes through late tonight
through early morning, so this could also act as a lifting
mechanism for any storms. Overnight low temperatures in the 70s
in the north, and 60s Downeast.

During the day tomorrow, Maine stays between the warm front and
the cold front in this aforementioned low pressure system. Weak
surface trough develops through the center of the state,
providing some weak lifting throughout the day. Being in the
warm sector, Maine gets plenty of warm air advected into the
region, resulting in some excessive heat in the 90s for most of
the day. Dew-points remain high as well, leading to muggy
conditions. Heat indexes in the north and the immediate coast in
the mid-to-upper 90s, and in inland and central Maine
potentially up to 105. Excessive heat warnings and advisory are
currently in effect. Do your best to avoid strenuous outdoor
activities, and ensure to stay hydrated!

Southerly winds become southwesterly by Tuesday, with some
heavier gusts into the afternoon period. Relatively clear skies
in the south and partially cloudy in the north. There is a
potential for some convection/thunderstorms during the day if
there is breaks in the clouds and the surface trough provides
enough lift, but confidence is relatively low at this time.
There is a strong cap, that acts as the primary reason for
convection inhibition. Any potential lift from the surface
trough or due to surface heating could easily cause some decent
storms. Favorable DCAPE and dry air aloft could cause some gusty
winds coming down to the surface if convection occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night,
with high pressure building toward the region late. Any
remaining showers/thunderstorms will end in the wake of the
front, leaving mostly clear/partly cloudy skies overnight. High
pressure then builds across the region Wednesday into Thursday.
Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday/Wednesday night. Expect
mostly/partly sunny skies Thursday. Expect near normal level
temperatures north, slightly above normal, Downeast Wednesday.
Expect near normal level temperatures across the region
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains across the region Thursday night with partly
cloudy skies. High pressure should exit across the Maritimes
early Friday, Low pressure could then begin to approach late,
though uncertainty with the track still exists. Expect
increasing clouds Friday, with a chance of showers or a
steadier rain Friday night. A chance of rain will persist across
the region Saturday. The system should move east Sunday,
leaving generally partly cloudy skies across the forecast area.
However, could also still have a slight chance/chance of
showers. Uncertainty exists Monday regarding low pressure
possibly approaching the region. Will have partly cloudy skies
along with a chance of showers Monday. Near normal, to slightly
below normal, level temperatures are expected Friday through
Sunday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BHB will drop to LIFR by 07z with low cigs and fog
moving in. Improvement to VFR by 12z. BGR will diminish to MVFR
in BCFG between 07-11z this morning before improving.

FVE may see an area of storms move in between 08-10z with brief
MVFR restrictions. Otherwise Aroostook terminals to see VFR next
24 hours. Confidence is very low on chances for tstms this
afternoon and have not included with this set of TAFS.

Aroostook terminals expected to see LLWS at FL020 from 27030kt
through 10z this morning. All terminals will see W winds gusting
to 20kts this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night...Variable conditions with any thunderstorms
early. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday through Friday. VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots Wednesday, then 5 to 10 knots
Wednesday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday through
Friday.

Friday night..VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of showers or
rain. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. South/southeast
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight into tomorrow. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the outer
waters, and at or below 2ft for the inner waters. Potential for
fog development tonight into Tuesday morning, which could reduce
visibility. Winds from the S/SW at 10-15kt, with gusts up to
20kt possible tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday
night through Thursday. Patchy fog Tuesday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record highs possible on Tuesday, June 24th:

Site              Forecast    Record

Caribou           88          93 (1995)
Houlton           91          92 (1995)
Millinocket       93          97 (1912)
Bangor            96          93 (1995)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MEZ005-006-011-029>032.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MEZ015>017.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Buster
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Buster/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Buster/Norcross
Climate...Brennan