Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 272311
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
711 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR WITH SEVERE HAIL SIGNATURES IN THE
ALLAGASH AND NEAR MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MORE POTENT
PARTS OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER RURAL AREAS SO WE HAVE NOT
VERIFIED ANY WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE HEARD OF
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN WINTERVILLE AND ONE SMALL TREE DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT KENT, NOT ENOUGH FOR VERIFICATION.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING DOWNEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE DOWNEAST TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND IT WILL ALSO FEEL ON THE
MUGGY SIDE.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
500 MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HAVE THE REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WL HV BEGUN TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z WED WITH TSTMS TUE EVNG,
DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS OVRNGT AS IT HEADS SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ARND
00Z WED LKLY TO RANGE FM 1000 J ACRS DOWNEAST TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
OVR THE FAR NORTH. HV WORDED WX GRIDS AS SHRA/TSRA THRU 02Z THEN
DWINDLING FM THERE WITH JUST SHOWERS LEFT OVER AFT 06Z.

AREA WL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BUILDING RIDGE DRG THE DAY ON WED WITH
CDFNT LKLY STALLING OUT ALONG COAST BY AFTN. WL ADD IN SLGT CHC
THUNDER FOR COASTAL CNTYS DRG THE AFTN AS UPR LOW VRY SLOWLY TAKES
ITS TIME SLIDING INTO THE MARITIMES.

RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NGT AND APPEARS TO HOLD UNTIL THUR AFTN BFR NEXT
WMFNT APPCHS. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON LKLY POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z THUR AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO GENEROUS AS H5 RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY FLATTEN
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FRI. INCRS IN CLD CVR WL KEEP TEMPS TEMPERED
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SHORT, THE ACTIVE, FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG-TERM, WITH A NEW DISTURBANCE EVERY 36-48 HOURS.
EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER FRI,
MAINLY IN NORTH ZONES, AS A VORTICITY MAX AND MODEST JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH AND VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING CLEARING FRI NIGHT, BUT NEXT DISTURBANCE
LOOKS GEARED TO SWING THRU THE CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW FIRST MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON SPEED OF CLEARING,
WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO PRECIP LONGER. KEPT SOME AREAS OF CHC POPS
AS A RESULT SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW CLEARING MOST OF SUN
AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA MON. HIGHS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUE EVENING.
SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTORMS. VFR
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BHB ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR EXPECTED THUR NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR
MARINE...DUDA/FOISY/FARRAR



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