Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200120
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
919 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL BACK TO THE WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER AS OF 9 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THEY MOVE INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL ADD
SOME FOG IN UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOPRES LOCATED IN CNTRL QUEBEC AND WL HEAD EAST OVRNGT. QUESTION
CONTINUES TO CNTR AROUND THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS
OF 19Z BEST INSTABILITY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) STILL EXISTS NORTH OF
NEW ENGLAND IN AREAS WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLR THIS MRNG. CHCS
ARE WANING FOR THUNDER TDA AND HV BACKED OFF ON MENTION IN GRIDS
UNTIL CLOSER TO 22Z BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.

GUT FEELING IS THAT AS THIS LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST IT WL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR. THUS HV KEPT
JUST A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF A
GREENVILLE TO FORT KENT LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY AT
CLAYTON LAKE, TEMPS HV SHOT UP TO 68F WITH A DWPT OF 60F. IN
CONTRAST FRENCHVILLE SITS AT 56/54.

CDFNT BISECTS STATE 06Z AND SLIDES EAST FM THERE. LINE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIES BNDRY THRU THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK WITH JUST MINIMAL QPF
EXPECTED AS LINE WEAKENS. EXPECT CAA TO MV IN FOLLOWING FROPA ACRS
THE NORTH BUT TEMPS RMN IN THE L50S FOR DOWNEAST SXNS.

MAIN H5 S/WV WL SKIRT NORTH OF THE STATE DRG THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
MAIN COLD POOL NORTH OF CWA. EXPECT AN ISOLD SHOWER TO EXIST ACRS
THE FAR NORTH DRG THE MRNG HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, USHERING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT`LL BE CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTH WOODS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOTE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AT
THE SURFACE, FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT DOWNEAST AREAS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT`LL BE COOL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY, WITH SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. IT`LL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONT SLIDES ACROSS
THE STATE. WARMER AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART ON MEMORIAL DAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MARCHES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT TERMINALS WITH
POCKETS OF VLIFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KCAR NORTH TO KFVE
UNTIL 03Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET AND WITH JUST MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING
MET HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT DON`T EXPECT OPTIMAL MIXING DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL AND HELP KEEP SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/FARRAR/HASTINGS


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