Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 212045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
445 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START
TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE.  MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET
ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW
TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE
MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MCW
MARINE...NORCROSS/MCW
HYDROLOGY...MCW









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