000
FXUS61 KCAR 281951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN THREATS THIS TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION W/SOME WIND.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN W/EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIFTING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIFT ACROSS
THE PISCATAQUIS BASIN ATTM AND WILL LIFT NE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST AREAS INTO THE EVENING. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED
DECENT AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
W/MUCAPES OF 1000 JOULES NOSING RIGHT UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE
WOODS. ANOTHER AREA WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SEEN BY THE NOSE OF LIFTED INDEX OF -3 TO -5. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AND MORE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. 12Z UA SHOWED
A COLD POCKET IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NYS AND THIS AREA
WILL LIFT N OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 20+ KTS ALONG W/ELEVATED CAPE OF 600 JOULES COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD DELIVER SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED
TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
W/THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN FURTHER
NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WPC HAS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING CELLS
W/SOME AREAS EXCEEDING FFG. THIS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS GYX`S CWA. FOG IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
DOWNEAST AND COAST AS SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG N OF A HOULTON-MILLINOCKET LINE.

LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING
W/THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED
W/SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
DRYING TAKING HOLD BY LATE MORNING W/CLEARING. COOLER AND DRIER FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO OUR
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR OR A BIT SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. WE WILL REMAIN
IN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IGNITED WITH THE HELP OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH QUEBEC AND LIFT INTO THE
MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DROPPING DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT W/SOME TSTMS. FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY FOR THE KBGR AND KBHB TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY AS VSBYS COULD DROP DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS. AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING AND THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP AS THEY ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT WHICH IS 1-2
FT BELOW GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE FORECAST SEAS BY A
FOOT AND WENT W/4-6 FT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS W/A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/A SSW FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET/SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY